A.P. U.S. Govt. Ch. 9, “Nominations, Elections, and Campaigns”

• The U.S. has more elections, candidates, and votes for more govt. position than other countries; but how informed are the voters to choose the best candidate?

• U.S. has “general elections”—voting for various levels of govt.

• U.S. elections are predictable—occurring every 2 to 4 years

The Evolution of Campaigning• Effective campaigns require:• 1) acquire and analyze info. about voters’ interests• 2) a strategy and matching tactics for appealing to these interests• 3) deliver the candidate’s message to the voters• 4) get voters to cast their ballots• Political parties used to run campaigns—but now the individuals

run their own campaigns with limited party support• But the “party label” helps the person win office• Candidates have to win their party’s nomination before the general

election

Nominations

• states: determine the nomination process• 40 states: use primary elections• 10 states: use party conventions to place names on the ballot• this makes the nomination process “highly decentralized”• one-quarter of the voting age population--casts a ballot in the

primary—so this is unrepresentative of what party members think

• most primaries face little party competition (only 25% are competitive)

• open primaries—weaken parties more than closed primaries

Nominations (cont.)

• “placing the nomination of party candidates in the hands of voters rather than party leaders is a key factor in the decentralization of power in American parties, which contributes more to pluralist than to majoritarian democracy”

• delegates at the national convention—used to nominate candidates for pres. and V.P.—until the 1960s

• today: primaries determine the candidates for office (people vote for the delegates to the national convention—who cast their ballot with a candidate; this is done proportionally—where a candidate gets the number of delegates from a state based on the percentage of vote they received)

Nominations (cont.)• some states have “winner-takes-all” primaries—where the

candidate with the MOST votes gets ALL the delegates to the natl. convention

• some states have a caucus—to nominate people to go to the state convention to choose their candidate

• so now—people know the nominee for president before the natl. party conventions, and this causes states to move their primaries earlier to have an influence on who is nominated to be president

• “invisible primary”—when prospective candidates begin to line up political and financial support to hopefully gain their party’s nomination (sometimes 4 years prior to the election)

Nominations (cont.)• With no incumbent president—both parties’ nominations for

president are contested• With an incumbent president—their party’s nomination is not

contested• Many hopefuls seek the presidential nomination of the

opposition party (that not currently in office)• The Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries matter

—since they are the earliest• Candidates eventually favored by most party identifiers

usually win their party’s nomination• Candidates who win the nomination do so on their own—

without national party support

Elections• federal general election: held in even-numbered years; to elect all

of the House and 1/3 of the Senate seats• every four years is the presidential election; and when there is not

one you have a congressional, midterm, or off-year election• A person can be elected president with less than a majority of

popular votes—as long as they have a majority of electoral votes (if no one gets that then the House decides the election); 2000 is an example

• 538 electoral votes in total (and 270 needed to win): all states have a minimum of 3 (incl. D.C.—although it does not have any Senators or Representatives)

• 2010 Census: changed the number of Reps. And electoral votes for many states

Elections (cont.)• At first state legislatures chose the electors—but today the vote

from the state determines electors• Maine and Nebraska: allow for their electoral votes to be split (all

other states award their votes to the candidate with the most votes)

• 1789 to 2000: 700 proposals to change the electoral college have been sent to Congress; public opinion today is opposed to the electoral college

• Electoral college makes the election more of a federal vote—than a national one

• Those against the electoral college use the results of 1888 and 2000 to support their view; they also say that the founders did not want the people to choose the president directly, but wanted the House of Reps. to decide most presidential elections

Elections (cont.)• Those is support of the electoral college argue:• 1) it gives small states more weight in the vote—since they

have two Senators, the same as large states• 2) candidates have to campaign in rural areas—not just large

urban areas with more voters• 3) a national recount of votes could be costly and difficult• 4) tradition—the Constitution established this system—so

some people do not want to change it• The ballot: lists president, V.P., congressional offices, then

state and local offices• 1970s and 1980s: Republican Pres. and Democratic Congress;

1990s to today: Democratic Pres. and Republican Congress

Campaigns• Whether someone is the incumbent (current officeholder running for

reelection) or the challenger (who seeks to replace the incumbent) affects the outcome—since incumbents have a greater advantage in winning elections

• Larger (and more diverse) states cost more money to campaign in; and running for president costs the most

• Issues like economic recession, personal scandals, and war affect campaigns

• money: is the key to winning an election (to pay for office staff, organization, technology, and advertising)

• 1971: Congress passed the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)—limited media spending and established rules for full reporting of campaign contributions and expenditures

Campaigns (cont.)• Federal Election Commission (FEC): enforces limits on financial

contributions to national campaigns and requires full disclosure of campaign spending, and administering public financing of presidential campaigns

• Supreme Court: has said that there can be limits on contributions to candidates, but there cannot be limits on how much candidates spend, since that it “free speech” protected by the 1st Amend.

• 2002: Congress passed the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA); raised limits on contributions ($2,500 for a candidate; $10,000 for a state party or political committee; $30,800 for a national party committee; $5,000 for a PAC); it also banned large “soft-money” contributions to political parties in general, which could be used to support candidates for office

Campaigns (cont.)• Supreme Court: said that BCRA’s ban on paying for issue ads were

unconstitutional—opening the door for groups to pay for these ads• Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010): SC shot

down BCRA’s ban on spending by corporations in candidate elections

• Super PACs: run campaign ads to support (or oppose) candidates—and no limits are placed on how much they spend; though they do have to disclose contributions by individuals—but not nonprofits; the number of these have grown tremendously

• Candidates can get public funds to run for president; they did this from 1976 to 2004—but most since then have raised their private funds to run for office

Campaigns (cont.)• bundled donations: fundraising professionals raise money to give to

candidates all together• Internet: has made fundraising easier (along with text-message

donations of small amounts)• Strategies: overall scheme for winning; include:• 1) party-centered: relying on voters’ partisan identification and

party organization to provide necessary resources• 2) issue-oriented: support from groups that wants the same policies

in place• 3) candidate-oriented: depends on the candidate’s perceived

personal qualities (experience, leadership ability, integrity, independence, and trustworthiness)

Campaigns (cont.)• Use of pollsters and political consultants help candidates with their

strategy• making news: to get the candidate’s name out there (name

recognition is important)—and done freely; this helps explain incumbents’ advantage; but news coverage relies on sound bites—only a few seconds long

• media: use the metaphor of a “horse race” in covering elections (bandwagons; losing ground; the front-runner; and the likely loser); so focus little on the issues

• advertising: besides name recognition, tries to extoll the virtues of the candidates, attack their opponent, or play on voters’ emotions

Campaigns (cont.)• Electronic media—television—helps promote candidates, and give

people information about them; this is more important than newspapers

• negative and contrast ads: criticize an opponent and help try to distinguish the best candidate

• Internet: is fast, easy to use, and cheap—saving money on mailing and phone calls; use targeted ads and transmit messages to supporters quickly

• Social media: also gets out messages to supporters, but does less to influence voters

Explaining Voting Choice• Party Identification: probably the most significant; half of all voters

make their choice for pres. before the end of the summer prior to the election

• Republicans: have won most presidential elections since 1952 because: Democrats don’t turn out to vote as much; and Democrats tend to defect from their party more

• Whites tend to be Republican; Blacks tend to be Democratic; Hispanics tend to be Democratic (but aren’t registered and vote at as high percentages)

• Issues and Policies: challengers point out problems; incumbents focus on their accomplishment while in office

Explaining Voting Choice (cont.)• Candidates’ attributes: voters who lack info. About the issues and

policy stands use attributes to decide who to vote for; these include religion, race, and gender

• Evaluating the voting choice: the issues factor in less than party identification and attributes in a voter’s decisions; more recently, there is a clearer connection between voters’ feelings on issues, ideology, and party identification

• Campaign effects: there is a limit to a campaign to convert voters to their candidate; but a few votes can affect the election results

• Television campaign: news has limited coverage of the election, so advertisements are increasingly important

Explaining Voting Choice (cont.)• Presidential Debates: first televised one occurred in 1960—

between Democrat John F. Kennedy and Republican Richard Nixon (where Kennedy “won” for those who watched it on TV, while Nixon “won” for those who listened on the radio); this can help some people decide who to support