APEC Climate Center

Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera

APEC Climate Center

AAsiasia

PPacificacific Economic CooperationEconomic Cooperation

CClimatelimate

CCenterenter

AAsiasia

PPacificacific Economic CooperationEconomic Cooperation

CClimatelimate

CCenterenter

Moving from Climate Information to Climate Knowledge

Climate Change Knowledge Asset SessionClimate Change Knowledge Asset SessionPacific Neighborhood ConsortiumPacific Neighborhood Consortium

Annual meetingAnnual meetingCity University of Hong Kong, December 1 2010

APEC Climate Center

■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge

■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge

Production

■ APEC Climate Center and its response

Presentation Outline

APEC Climate Center

Numerous information on Climate Change

APEC Climate Center

People say,

APEC Climate Center

Do what? : Decision making before action

APEC Climate Center

Basis of decision making

APEC Climate Center

Data InformationKnowledge

Climate change information and its application

APEC Climate Center

Climate Knowledge

• Interpretation of information

• Requires understanding and insight

• Developed based on experiences and best practices

• Produced with the intent of being useful

APEC Climate Center

A few examples

KNOWLEDGEINFORMATION

Wikis Decision-support tools Best practices Early Warning and risk management system

Outlooks Forecasts Monitoring and prediction maps Flood and drought bulletins Technical reports

APEC Climate Center

■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge

■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge

Production

■ APEC Climate Center and its response

Presentation Outline

APEC Climate Center

Climate change information and its application

APEC Climate Center

Uncertainty in Climate information

Headlines following the 2013 publication of the AR5 Report may look like this:

Trenberth (2010) warns that the improvements in models in IPCC AR5 may yield more uncertainty because of more factors and patterns of interactions considered.

APEC Climate Center

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

“Unknown unknowns”

APEC Climate Center

Climate and Climate Knowledge

APEC Climate Center

Uncertainty in Decision-making (Morgan et al 2009)

Climate system is a complex, interactive and dynamic system

Kinds of uncertainty1. Random and systematic errors in measurement2. Probability distributions from expert elicitation3. Ignorance – the “(monstrously large) blindspots”

Methods for estimating uncertainty1.Model-generated uncertainty estimates2.Expert elicitation

A few notes:

Decisions under uncertainty are made all the time by individuals, firms and businesses, governments, etc.

What is important is to accurately characterize and communicate uncertainty (i.e. avoiding use of subjective language such as likely, unlikely, etc.)

APEC Climate Center

Importance of Two-way Communication Channels

Current ways of communication between producers and users:

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Boundary organizations (IRI, CSIRO, CIIFEN) Lugon (2010) identifies examples and best practices

Some points:

Communication is still ad hoc

Regular, institutionalized interface with users is still not common in RCCs and NHMSs

GFCS to create a roadmap on how interface can be done

APEC Climate Center

Importance of Two-way Communication Channels

Some important questions that need to be addressed:

1.What are the information and knowledge needs of various sectors? 2.At what temporal and spatial scales would information be useful? 3.How available are climate forecasts in decision-making?4.What is actionable climate information? (build up knowledge)

These questions will only be addressed with open communication and collaboration between producers and users.

Desired end-results:

Co-production of knowledge among producers and users Feedback loops that inform producers on what kind of information is needed Climate information products that are tailor-fit to various users.

APEC Climate Center

Technology and Knowledge Production

Uses of technology in knowledge production

1.Communication platform - Internet as a collaboration tool

- Wikis and social networking websites allow for the updating of knowledge in real time and more and faster learning (i.e. weAdapt.org)

- Online tools allow sharing of knowledge and ability to work together (i.e. Mendeley, Lotus Notes, Adobe Buzzword, etc.) dynamism, update our knowledge in real time, learn from others experiences

- Email discussion lists and web forums allow for real-time interaction among scientists, adaptation specialists, development workers, etc.

APEC Climate Center

Technology and Knowledge Production

2. Data access and services

- Databases for storing vast amounts of data (PCMDI)- Google Earth layers- Software and decision-support tools

APCC’s CLIK, IRI’s CPT and others

Climate science and adaptation require fast action. Hence knowledge exchange is crucial, particularly as the gaps in our knowledge are filled through experiences learned on the ground and not theory.

Availability of technology should not undermine the value of interpersonal communication

APEC Climate Center

■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge

■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge

Production

■ APEC Climate Center and its response

Presentation Outline

APEC Climate Center

APEC Climate Center

Bring economies together to discuss ways and do things to enhance economic well being of member nations through better utilization of climate information

APEC Climate Center

Sharing of High-Cost Climate InformationSharing of High-Cost Climate Information

APEC Climate Center

APCC activities

Global climate forecast collected from 17 institutes issue Monthly rolling 3-month MME climate forecast Researches on intraseasonal to decadal prediction and

climate change projection International Collaborations and Outreach activity

MME Climate Forecast

Production, Analysis,& Dissemination

Production, Analysis,& Dissemination

Climate Monitoring

···

··· Joint Research

InternationalCollaboration

InternationalCollaboration

Outreach & Training Program

APEC Climate Center

Monthly update of climate prediction

Data collection

1~10

Standardization & quality check

11~15Day of the

month

Outlook release & upload to

website

22~23

Analysis and production

16~21

Activity

www.apcc21.orgwww.apcc21.org

APEC Climate Center

APCC’s modest efforts to respond to challenges and operate in the said context:

APEC Climate Symposium- 2010 Forum on Disaster Preparedness- 2011 theme on agriculture, water resource management and energy efficiency

CLIK (Climate Information Toolkit)- Currently most of the users are NHMSs- Find ways of how CLIK can be marketed to and used by adaptation sector and decision-makers

Virtual Center- Publish contributed articles centering on how climate information and research can be used by different sectors (public health, marine resource conservation, urban planning, water resource management, energy efficiency, tourism, etc.)

APCC Activities

APEC Climate Center

Capacity building: interactive service tools

•AFS : Automated Forecast System/ CMS : Climate Monitoring System/ DFT: Downscale Forecast Tool•ADSS : APEC Climate Center Data Service System

http://clik.apcc21.net

APEC Climate Center

Survey on Using Climate Information for Disaster Preparedness

- Conducted in 2010 together with the APEC Emergency Preparedness Working Group

Networking- Improved collaboration across institutions and APEC fora: Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group, Energy Working Group, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Working Group, Fisheries Working Group, Marine Resource Conservation Working Group

APCC Activities

APEC Climate Center

Planned activities and projects: Collaboration with University of Aizu in developing tools and IT-based climate information and knowledge products

- MOU signed last November 19, 2010- commence projects in early 2011

Commence research on climate change and application for 2011- Active recruitment of scientists with specialization on climate change and climate information application- Increased funding for climate change research- more interdisciplinary studies with experts in socioeconomic sectors

Development of communications strategy- Examine accessibility of our products (language used in 3-month seasonal outlook, written descriptions for maps, explanations of variables, links to important resources)- Map out profile of current and prospective users

APCC Activities

APEC Climate Center

Thank You.Thank You.

APEC Climate Center

Castree, Noel. 2010. Review of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data and the Politics of Global Warming by Paul N. Edwards. American Scientist. The American Scientist. Available at http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/how-we-make-knowledge-about-climate-change (accessed November 3, 2010).

Goddard, Lisa, Youcef Aitchellouche, Walter Baethgen, Michael Dettinger, Richard Graham, Peter Hayman, Mohammed Kadi, Rodney Martinez and Holger Meinke. 2009. Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and Decision Making. White Paper for the Third World Climate Conference, Geneva. http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/sessionsdb/documents/WS3_WP_needs.doc (accessed November 3, 2010).

Lugon, Ralph. Climate information for decision-making: lessons learned from effective user-provider communication schemes. 2010. Technical report for a one-year project of Graduate Institute Centre for International Governance. http://graduateinstitute.ch/webdav/site/cig/shared/CIG/climate/Report%20-%20Climate%20Information/Climate%20Information%20for%20Decision%20Making%20Report.pdf (accessed November 3,2010).

Meinke, Holger, Rohan Nelson, Phil Kokic, Roger Stone, Ramasamy Selvaraju and Walter Baethgen. 2006. Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 101-110.

Morgan, M. Granger, Hadi, Dowlatabadi, Max Henrion, David Keith, Robert Lempert, Sandra McBride, Mitchell Small and Thomas Willibanks. 2009. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/sap5-2-final-report-all.pdf (accessed November 26, 2010).

Shackley, Simon and Brian Wynne. 1995. Integrating knowledges for climate change: Pyramids, nets and uncertainties. Global Environmental Change 5, no. 2: 113-126.

Trenberth, Kevin. 2010. More Knowledge, Less Certainty. Commentary in Nature Reports Climate Change 4. Published online. http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.06.html

Vogel, Coleen and Karen O’Brien. 2006. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 111-122.

References and Resources