apett civil division seminar presentation by myron chin 2012-01-31

7/30/2019 Apett Civil Division Seminar Presentation by Myron Chin 2012-01-31

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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL(GEM) CARIBBEAN REGIONAL

PROGRAMME AN INTRODUCTION

A presentation byDr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETTGEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN

SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI

at the

APETT CIVIL ENGINEERING DIVISION SEMINARPort Authority Conference Room, Port of Spain Trinidad

31st January 2012

Copyright Myron Chin 2011


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SUMMARY OFPRESENTATION

- INTRODUCTORY REMARKS- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN

- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE

DONE BY RECENT EARTHQUAKES

- LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (GCRP)- FORMATION OF SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)

- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs

- ACTIVE FAULTSCENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T

- BUILD ING CODE FOR T&T

- BUILD ING INVENTORY

- SOME EXAMPLES OF THE POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS

- CONCLUDING REMARKS


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INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

The entire Caribbean Basin is prone tosocio-natural and man-made disasters

ECLAC estimates that the disasterimpact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/year

A number of national, regional (ODPM,

CDEMA, SRC, ACS) and internationalorganizations (PAHO, OAS) arecurrently working in this area.

Now we have GEM


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Caribbean Natural Hazards

Geological:

Earthquakes

Volcanic activity

Tsunamis

Landslides

Meteorological:

Hurricanes

Storm surge and wave action

Torrential rains


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Caribbean plate (after Weber)

Tobago


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Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)

Ca-SA: 20 mm/yr


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El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes

(6.8)

Mendoza (2000)


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Perez et al. 2001

VENEZUELA

NA

SF

PF

0 mm/a20

MF

san

a

VENEZUELA

NA

FS

FP

20 mm/yr

FM

-68

sana

CANOA

sana

MAR CARIBE

17

N

-58-74 W

6


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MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND

TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)


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7.8 (IX)

1766

6.6 (VIII)

1825

7 (VII)

1888

7.3 (VIII)1918

6.3 (VIII)

1954

6.55.9

6.7

6.1

6.7 (VIII)

1997

6.26.3

5.3

7.4 (VI)

2007

Trinidad and Tobago Damaging Earthquakes

Size, Intensity, Chronology and Locations

(after Lloyd Lynch)

Seism

icEner


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Recent Seismic Hazard Map

of Trinidad

(after Lloyd Lynch)


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TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02(After Joan Latchman)


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14


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Justification for Concern about

Natural Hazards( As stated by Tony Gibbs)

Rising insurance premiums

Vulnerable tourism facilities

Special concerns of small island

states Destructive recent Hurricanes and

Earthquakes


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SOME EXAMPLES OF

EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN

THE CARIBBEAN REGION

-TOBAGO EARTHQUAKES

1997-04-02 &22-MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1-LANDSLIDE IN TOBAGO -2002 AND

SAN SOUCI DUE TO HEAVY RAINS 2011

- MUD VOLCANO IN PIPARO-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21-MAGNITUDE 6.0-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12

-MAGNITUDE 7.0


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TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF

1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)


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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04

(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)


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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04

(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)


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MUD VOLCANO AT PIPARO

(Photo courtesy of GSTT)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -1DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE

OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre

(Photoscourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -2-

DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth Methodist ChurchRecreational Centre(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -3-


Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and Corners

Collapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -4-


Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photo

courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE

HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12 (7.0 MAG.)

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSEHAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12



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TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNSHAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)

THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)


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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)

A collaborative effort devised and launched by

OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at

engaging the global community in the design,

development and deployment of uniform open

standards and tools for earthquake risk

assessment worldwide

PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP


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PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

10 countries

have adhered so

far

discussions and

negotiations are ongoing

with 15+ others

7 private organisations have

partnered up with GEM so far

they contribute

13.6 M Euro

the OECD, World Bank, UNESCO,

UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associate

participants

SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM


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SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM

HazardProbability,Intensity,

Loca on

ExposureValue,Loca on;

Physical,Social,

Economic

VulnerabilityPhysical,Social,

Economic,Ins tu onal;

Func ons,Indicators

Riskand

Impact

Analysis

Damageandlossmaps,lossexceedancecurves,

riskindicators,indirectlosses,impactonsociety/

economy

DecisionMakingToolsCon ngencyPlanning,Territorial

Planning,CostBenefit

Anal ysi s, Ri sk

Governanceetc.

FIRST PRODUCTS


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FIRST PRODUCTS

OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to

compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source

project, available for download from http://openquake.org.

What is ?


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ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

IN BRINGING ACTIVITIES OF VARIOUS

COMPONENTS TOGETHER

STAY UPDATED


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GEM Brochure

Available from website and hard-copy

Bi-monthly e-Newsletter

Sign-up at website

STAY UPDATED

GEM Report 2009/2010 v2

Available from website and hard-copy

GEM Website

www.globalquakemodel.orgMost update source of information

News, results, calls,

www.globalquakemodel.org


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

PROGRAMME

-The development of Regional Programmes (RPs) isthe main mechanism through which the GEM toolswill be transferred with a view to creating a uniform

globally used standard. The RPs involve localexperts using GEM software and tools, who generatelocal data and validate the data and standards thatare being created on the global level.-The Institution of Structural Engineers (CaribbeanDivision) hosted a presentationof the GEM project at the Normandie Hotel in

Trinidad on 15 October 2010.


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

REGIONAL PROGRAMME (Conted)

-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafterreferred to as GEM) engaged The Seismic ResearchCentre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies,St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in the

Caribbean. Funding became available in March2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager,Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, incollaboration with all players/stakeholders from the

Caribbean community, spearhead theimplementation of the GEM initiative in the InsularCaribbean and the effective functioning of the GEMRegional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean

HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY


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HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY

WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO

LAUNCH GEM REGIONAL

PROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,

TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION

- PRESENTATIONS BY DRS. RUI PINHO,MARCO PAGANI

AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT ANDTWENTY OTHERS

-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS

FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES

- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:

http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91


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HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM

OPENS GEM WORKSHOP


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PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO

SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM

PRESENTATION BY DR MARCO


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PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO

PAGANIGEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR

HAZARD


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PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN

CROWLEYGEM COORDINATOR

FOR RISK


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GEM WORKSHOP2-4 MAY 2011

GROUP PHOTOGRAPH

GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL


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GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS

HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR

Dr. WalterSalazar (Co-opted on 2011-05-19)

Group 1: Active FaultsProject Leader: Rafi Ahmed (MONA GEOINFORMATICS

UWI MONA, JAMAICA)Participants:Franck Audemard y Luz Rodrguez (FUNVISIS, Venezuela)Lyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica),

Wayne Adams (Consultant Jamaica)Barbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica)Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, TrinidadEnrique Arango, CENAIS, MexicoKrishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)


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(2001, 2002)

(2001)

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)

Prentice et al. 2010

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)


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Holocene

FAULT

2002 Trench 9


Trinidad and Tobago Pipeline Network( ft Ll d L h)


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(after Lloyd Lynch)

GEM CARIBBEAN 7 REGIONAL


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS (Conted)RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin

Group 5: Exposure

Leaders of Sub-Groups:

Building Codes: Carlos Buron

Critical Facilities: Wayne AdamsRetrofitting: Didier Deris

Expert Judgement: Anthony Farrell

Building Inventory: Kevin Granger

Members: Jacob Opadeyi, Jan Vermeiren, Cassandra LaBarrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on

2011-05-12)

Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, Trinidad

Members:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups


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DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOREARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)


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Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk

Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI

in Jamaica.

Main Sponsor: World Bank

Completion Date: December 2011.

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)


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OBJECTIVES

To develop a methodology for seismic risk

assessment in the Caribbean forthree pilot

States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.

To provide guidelines and open-source

software for the estimation of earthquakeloss using available socio-economic data.


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Project Components Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of

PGA and spectral ordinates for 0.2s and 1.0s

For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismichazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project(SRC/EUCENTRE).

Development/Adapted Fragility Curves

Modification, testing and validation of ELEsoftware

Determination of data requirements and collectionof geo-referenced data

Risk evaluation

VULNERABILITY AND


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VULNERABILITY ANDBUILDING STOCK

SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston


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Precast houses

Reinforced concreteapartments

Reinforcedconcretebuildings on slopes

Masonry Houses

Modern Reinforced ConcreteBuilding at New Kingston

Wooden house

g

Historical Buildings


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DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES

FOR pre-cast houses

Connections between panels areeffected by welding togethermatching metal angle sectionsembedded in the edge ribs of the

panels.

Heavy roof


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FUTUREWORK

GEM collaboration:

- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with

the OpenQuake software development.

- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC spent two

months at the GEM Headquarters from end August to

end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake and to

analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk Atlas

Project in order to assess its applicability to theCaribbean Region.

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES


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GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES

ONE GEM PROJECT IS A NATIONAL BUILDING CODE FOR

T&T

GROUP 5EXPOSUREBUILDING


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Project objectives1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping with

GEM Standards.

Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by

employees or contracted labour, to a relativelyundefined, large group of people or

community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipedia

definition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up

the crowd into two categories.

The Bounded Crowdwill be those participators who will not have any specific experiencein structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These

participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEM

Taxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will

also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff),

engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists.

The Unbounded Crowdwill therefore be those participators who will have had sufficientexperience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level

2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural

information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer.

Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see

www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble

rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.

INVENTORYLEADERKEVIN GRANGER


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS (Conted)

Group 6: VulnerabilityTentative Leader: Dr. R. ClarkeMembers: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel

Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWI

Leader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs

-Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms

Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren

Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)-OVERALL CO-ORDINATORMyron Chin

Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren

-Disaster Financing:

Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, FernandoGuasch, CENAIS, Cuba

- Valuation real estate

Leader of Sub-Group: Stacey Edwards ( Co-opted by M. Chin)

- Education and Outreach

- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba

SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND


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SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND

MODELS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

GEMs model and tools are envisaged to support a wide range of users, both from the

public and private sectors, regional and national organizations, non-governmentalbodies and also individuals in earthquake prone areas.

The following examples are some of the potential use of GEM tools and models:-

A countrys Minister of Planning and Development may wish to find out how the

effect of different possible earthquake scenarios might affect the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) of the country.

A national disaster organization would like to see the expected distribution of damageand fatalities within an urban area for a selected scenario earthquake for emergency

management planning.

A reinsurer or national primary insurer would like to calculate the average annual

loss and probable maximum loss to a portfolio of buildings (based on their own input

exposure data).

A geologist would like to carry out a new tectonic analysis in proximity to a dam, and

would like to download data on active faults as a starting point for his/her study.

An engineer who is working on the design of a bridge located in a zone of seismic

activity, would like to obtain uniform hazard spectra at different return periods for

different performance limit states.

An individual would like to understand how hazardous the area is, where (s)he is

planning to build a house.

CONCLUDING


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CONCLUDINGREMARKS

In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the

following remarks-

-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCESOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

WORLDWIDE BY INVOLVING EXPERTS AND PROFESSIONALS FROM ALL REGIONS OF

THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD

-GEM IS NOT A VEHICLE TO CARRY OUT THE WORK OF MAJORINSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES

- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE

RISK REDUCTION PROFESSIONALS FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION TO WORK

TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THAT

EARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE

CARIBBEAN.


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apett civil division seminar presentation by myron chin 2012-01-31

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