aphis swine disease surveillance, monitoring, and modeling · aphis swine disease surveillance,...
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APHIS Swine Disease Surveillance,
Monitoring, and Modeling
Kamina Johnson and Matthew BrananU.S. Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceVeterinary Services
May 15, 2019
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APHIS Surveillance
and Monitoring of Swine Diseases
Active/Routine Surveillance
Observational and Passive Surveillance
Surveillance to Support Trade
National Animal Health
Reporting System
(NAHRS)
National Wildlife Disease Program (NWDP)
National Animal Health
Monitoring System
(NAHMS)
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Information sources
On-farm surveillance
Diagnostic laboratory
submissions
Slaughter surveillance
On-farm investigations
(esp. FAD)
Certificates of Veterinary Inspection
Border Inspections
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Diseases of concern
Pro
gra
m/S
urv
eill
an
ce
Dis
ea
se
s •Pseudorabies (PRV)
•Swine brucellosis (SB)
• Influenza A in Swine (IAV-S)
•Classical Swine Fever (CSF)
•Seneca Valley Virus
• (Formerly) Swine Enteric Coronavirus Diseases
•Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV)
•Porcine Deltacoronavirus(PDCoV)
Hig
h-p
rofile
Fo
reig
n A
nim
al
Dis
ea
se
s •Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)
•African Swine Fever (ASF)
•Classical Swine Fever (CSF)
Oth
er
Rep
ort
ab
le D
ise
ase
s •Swine vesicular disease
•Vesicular stomatitis (VS)
•Rinderpest
•Nipah virus encephalitis
•Antrhax
•Echinococcosis/hydatidosis
•Rabies
•New World screwworm
•Old World screwworm
•Trichinellosis
•Japanese encephalitis
•Porcine Cysticercosis
•Transmissible gastroenteritis
•Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome (PRRS)
•Tularemia
•Melioidosis
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National Animal Health Reporting System
(NAHRS)Reporting system for reportable diseases for the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and National List of Reportable Animal Diseases (NLRAD)
Confidential, monthly, State-based reporting for livestock, avian, lagomorph, and aquatic species diseases
Helps to support national level animal health surveillance and trade, especially internationally
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National Wildlife Disease Program
(NWDP)
Identify damage and risk
Track, monitor, and test
Educate on biosecurity and damage prevention
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NAHMS Swine
Studies
Periodic, every 5-10 years
Scientifically and statistically
sound
Nationally representative
Collaborative
Questionnaire-and Biologics-
based
Voluntary and non-regulatory
program
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National Animal Health Monitoring
System (NAHMS)
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NAHMS Swine
Studies
Management practices
Production practices
Movement and marketing
Epidemiological factors
Disease presence
Biological samples for diseases of
interest
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National Animal Health Monitoring
System (NAHMS)
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• Classical swine fever (CSF)
• African swine fever (ASF)
• Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)
• Pseudorabies (PRV)
• Swine Brucellosis (SB)
• Influenza A in Swine (IAV-S)
Swine Disease Surveillance
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Oral Fluids
Testing
• Biosecure
• Aggregate
• Cost-effective
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Potential cost savings using OF samples instead of
individual animal samples in an outbreak setting
$230,940
$111,900
$36,000 $15,750 $0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
Control Area Surveillance Zone
Individual Sample Cost
OF Cost
$194,940
$96,150
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Swine Disease
Epidemiologic
Modeling
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Economic Impact Modeling
13
30
40
50
60
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Breakeven Price Swine ($/cwt)
ISU Base_Type1 Base_Type2
Base_Type3 Base_Type4 Base_Type5
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Swine Dysentery• NAHMS Swine 1995,
2000, 2006, 2012 Studies– Prevalence reduction
to 4.3%
– Morbidity rate 5.5%
– Mortality rate 1.8%
• Literature search– Morbidity = 9 days
extra on feed
– Treatment costs $0.81 to $5.05
• Small market impacts in economic model
• Budget cost savings $7.80 per hog, higher returns of 10.6%
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Questions?