Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis To Floods and Landslides

Robert Adler, Yang Hong, Dalia Bach, George HuffmanNASA/Goddard, Laboratory for Atmospheres

Floods in Dominican Republic 3 day rains

with input from F. Su (MSFC/U. Wash.)

Largest Daily Rainfall Over 8Largest Daily Rainfall Over 8--year Periodyear Period

Use of TMPA for Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events

Ocean masked out

Gauged (mm/dy) Gauged(mm/dy) Gauged (mm/dy) Gauged (mm/dy)

Basin 6682 Basin 6301 Basin 6598 Basin 3802 PE

RSI

AN

N

CM

OR

PH

TM

PA-R

T

TM

PA V

.6

Scattergrams of daily basin-

averaged precipitation from gauged

and satellite precipitation estimates

for four sub-basins in La Plata for

the period Jan 2003 to August 2006.

Su (MSFC/U. of Wash.)

Testing of Rainfall Data Sets in Hydrological Model

Daily Simulated Streamflow for Basin 3802 (Area: 189, 300km2)(Jan 2003 - Aug 30 2006) [Using VIC model]

Simulated with sat. precip.

Simulated with gauge precip.

Su (MSFC/U. of Wash.)

Change in TMPA-RT

Improvement in TMPA-RT in 2005 leads to improved streamflow simulations as compared to pre-2005

TMPA Real-time Heavy Rain Maps (updated every 3 hours)1 day (35 mm), 3 day (100 mm), 7 day accumulations (200 mm)

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

20 June 2007

06 GMT

THRESHOLD: 35 MM

Global Hazard System (GHS-Flood)--An Approach Using Global Rainfall and Surface Information from Satellites and Other Sources

Step I: Rainfall-infiltration Partitioning (Distributed and Time-variant)Step 2: Flow Routing using Macro-scale Cell-to-Cell AlgorithmStep 3: Result: Grid Point Hydrographs--Flood Inundation Mapping

“Curve Number” approach to infiltration based on surface conditions

Cell-to-Cell Flow Routing

Hydrological/Flood Model Now Running in Real-time in Experimental Mode Globally at 0.25° lat./long. Resolution

1998-2006 Daily Rainfall-Runoff Simulation over Limpopo Basin, Mozambique, Africa

The 50yr Return Floodin Mozambique

Limpopo basin mean hydrograph for 2007 event climaxing with Cyclone Favio Reuters News:(69 deaths, 120,000 affected)

Feb. 2007

Cyclone Favio

Feb 22,2007 Cyclone Favio

35mm 75mm >125mm

June 15, 2007, 1200 GMT

Global Hazard System (Floods)Quasi-global Runoff Model Running in Real-Time

Water depth/hydrograph at 0.25°

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publica tions_dir/potential_flood_hydro.h tml

Estimated Water Depth from Hydrological Model 35mm 75mm >125mm1-Day Rainfall

Crocodiles on loose in VietnamNov 12 2007 icWales

Authorities in Vietnam have mobilised soldiers, militiamen and forest rangers to hunt for crocodiles that broke free from a farm during lethal flooding. They still do not know how many of the 5,000 crocodiles at the state-owned farm in central Vietnam escaped after flood waters knocked down part of the fence enclosing the tourist attraction.

Flooding kills 18 in central VietnamThe Associated PressNovember 12, 2007

HANOI, Vietnam: Floods in central Vietnam killed at least 18 people over the weekend. About 1.5 meters of water surrounded nearly 500 old homes in the historic town of Hoi An, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

Vietnam Floods 12 Nov. 2007, 03 UTC

Locations of 74 Rainfall-triggered Landslides

Rainfall Intensity-Duration for the 74 cases

1 day threshold= ~75 mm of rain

TMPA-based Threshold: I = 12.45 D -0.42Caine’s (1980) Threshold: I = 14.82 D-0.39

Relation of Rain Intensity-Duration Threshold and Landslide Occurrences

Landslide Susceptibility Map

Global landslide susceptibility map constructed using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM, MODIS vegetation and soil characteristic information

DEM, Slope, Aspect

Topography

Curvature, Concavity

Morphology

Lithological makeup

Geology

Sand, Foam, Silt, Clay

Soil Property

Shrub, barren, urban

Land Cover

e.g., Soil Moisture

Hydrology

Surface Controlling

Factors

Ongoing work to evaluate landslide algorithm against landslide inventory based mainly on news reports

Heavy Rain, Floods, Landslides in Hispaniola--1 November 2007 Analyzed in Real-Time by Global Hazard System (GHS)

3-day heavy rains over 250 mm over Dominican Republic related to Hurricane Noel produces flooding (deduced by hydrologic model running globally in real- time) and landslides (estimated from real-time landslide potential algorithm)

Rainfall information is from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Adler/Goddard Space Flight Center

Conclusions and Future WorkConclusions:

Satellite-based multi-satellite precipitation observations and land surface characteristics have provided new opportunity to develop global flood and landslide techniques--results appear very promising for global and regional applications.

Limitations: Warm-season high bias of passive microwave; heavy rain associated with shallow orographic systems underestimated or even missed

Global Hazard System--GHS (Flood, Landslide) real-time analysis producing usable results, but additional validation and improvement required to improve potential

Future Work:

1)Developing user partners (gov’t and non-gov’t organizations) to receive feedback and aid in practical evaluations of both global and regional applications

2) Evaluation of techniques with 9 year historical satellite rain data and real-time data

3) Addition of gridded overlays of population and economic information for mitigation planning

4) Improvement of technique with more sophisticated modeling of flooding processes

5) Incorporate rainfall forecasts from global numerical weather prediction models to increase lead times

23 August 2007 03GMT

Global Hazard System (GHS) Identifies Real-Time Heavy Rain, Potential Floods and Landslides--Globally

Estimated Water Depth from Hydrological Model 35mm 75mm >125mm

Last 24 Hours

Heavy Rainfall

FloodsLocations of

Potential Landslides

Identified

Global Floods