Application Trends in Professional School Admissions

AACRAO / NNLSO 2008 Annual Conference

Kathy Hartman Vermont Law School

Today’s Presentation Will Include:

U.S. Census Data and ProjectionsLaw School TrendsMedical School TrendsBusiness School TrendsHow these trends intersect

U.S. Resident Population Projections (in thousands)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050population 308,936 335,805 363,584 391,946 419,85420 - 24 yrs 21,676 20,751 23,136 24,897 26,297

U.S. Resident Population Projections by Median Age

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Projected Racial Distribution by Percentage of Population

0102030405060708090

2000 2025 2050

American IndianAsianBlackHispanic OriginWhite

Projected Racial Distribution by Percentage of Population

2000 2025 2050

Amer. Indian .9% 1.0% 1.1%

Asian 4.1% 6.5% 9.3%

Black 12.8% 13.9% 14.7%

Hispanic Origin 11.8% 18.2% 24.3%

White 82.2% 78.5% 74.9%

Hispanic Origin may be of any race.

U.S. Resident PopulationEducational Attainment in 2006

Not H.S. Graduate

H.S. Graduate

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor Degree

Adv. Degree

White 13.9% 31.8% 16.9% 9.0% 18.6% 9.8%Black 19.3% 35.6% 19.0% 7.7% 12.6% 5.8%Other 14.7% 23.9% 14.2% 7.6% 24.6% 14.9%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%

Educational Attainment in 2006Hispanic and Non-Hispanic

Not H.S. GraduateH.S. GraduateSome CollegeAssoc. DegreeBachelor DegreeAdv. Degree

Hispanic 40.7% 28.4% 12.7% 5.9% 8.8% 3.6%Non-Hispanic 10.9% 32.2% 17.6% 9.1% 19.6% 10.5%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%

Projected College EnrollmentAll Levels (in thousands)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Public Private1980 9,457 2,6401990 10,845 2,9742000 11,753 3,5602010 14,085 4,7542016 15,186 5,256

Law School Data

ABA Approved Law Schools

196 ABA approved law schoolsIncluding 8 new provisionally approved

12 new law schools approved since 2000

Law School Trends 2001 - 2008

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000

2001 -02

2002 -03

2003 -04

2004 -05

2005 -06

2006 -07

2007 -08

LSAT's Administered

Applications

Applicants

JD Enrollments

1977 1987 1997 2007

Number of ABALaw Schools

163 175 179 195

First Year Enrollment

39,996 40,195 43,245 48,937

% Minority Enrollment

9.2% 11.8% 20.2% 22.3%

Law School Challenges

As economy weakens, more candidates choose law schoolHigher tuitions lead to higher indebtednessStrict bar passage requirements will impact minority enrollmentsPressures to improve rankings

Medical School Data

Accredited Medical Schools

Medical Schools are accredited by the Liaison Committee on Medical Education – sponsored by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and the American Medical Association (AMA)125 accredited medical schools3 schools with preliminary accreditation status6 schools in the initial review status

Medical School Trends 2001 - 2007

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

MCAT's Administered

Applications

Matriculants

Medical School Challenges

Urgent need to meet the needs of growing and aging populationMedical school enrollment projected to increase 17% by 201271 U.S. schools are planning expansionsAt least 5 new schools will open within 5 years

How Law and Medical Trends Intersect

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Law School Applicants

Medical School Applicants

Business School Data

Business School Programs

Two-year, full-time MBA programsOne-year, full-time MBA programsPart-time programsExecutive MBA programsJoint or dual degreesSpecialty degrees

GMAT Testing Trends 1996 - 2006

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06

Non-U.S. CitizensU.S. Citizens

GMAT Testing Distinctions

Computer-Adaptive exam is now offered world-wideApproximately 20% of GMAT tests are taken to submit scores to non-business graduate programs

Business School Application Trends

Survey response from 252 schools worldwide, providing data for 445 programs

641 new graduate management programs introduced worldwide in first half of 2007

Currents Trends . . .

All types report strong application volume – with exception of PhD programsInterest in part-time programs is growingForeign applicants contribute to increase in overall volume for flexible and executive programs

Net Trend in Applications2006-07 to 2007-08

Part-Time Masters: + 58%Part-Time MBA: + 46%Online MBA: + 43%Executive MBA: + 40%Full-Time MBA: + 36%Flexible MBA: + 18%Full-Time Masters: + 17%PhD: - 20%

What Does It All Mean ????

App. 1/3 of applicants to all three programs are ethnic or racial minoritiesAs national demographics shift over the next generation, how will our schools react?How do we think the current economic picture will impact our enrollments?Other thoughts??

Bibliography

American Bar Association Section on Legal Education: Chicago, IL; www.abanet.org/legaledAssociation of American Medical Colleges: Washington, DC; www.aamc.orgGraduate Management Admission Council: Arlington, VA; www.gmac.comLaw School Admission Council: Newtown, PA; www.lsac.orgU.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2008 (127th Edition), Washington, DC; www.census.gov/statab

Presenter Contact Information

Kathy HartmanAssociate Dean for Enrollment

ManagementVermont Law School

khartman@vermontlaw.edu