apprentice demand in the top ten red seal trades...and for red seal trades in prince edward island....

Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades:

Atlantic Canada

Assuming recent trends in completion rates, it is likely that employers and apprenticeship stakeholders will need to attract 22,660 new apprentices to the top 10 Red Seal trades to meet the projected demand for 9,300 new journeypersons over the next decade. At the individual trade level, some programs are likely to see ample numbers of new journeypersons, while others are expected to fall short, potentially leading to a decline in workforce certification rates and recruitment challenges. Given current trends, the largest potential skills gaps are projected for carpenters and cooks, and for Red Seal trades in Prince Edward Island. The summary of anticipated trade certification requirements, projected program completions and target registrations to keep pace with future certification requirements is shown in Figure 2.

SummaryA projected 9,300 journeypersons in the top 10 Red Seal trades are expected to be required in the Atlantic provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island) over the next ten years between 2019 and 2028. This compares with 13,000 journeyperson completions that were recorded in the previous decade. Given this outlook of slower growth, meeting predicted outcomes will become more difficult with fewer young people available to enter the workforce over the coming decade.

Keeping up with future certification requirements will be further challenged by the recent 20% decline in new program registrations between 2015 and 2017, and which will result in fewer potential journeypersons completing in the future. The largest decline in new registrations was experienced in Newfoundland and Labrador, where new registrations fell by 36% between 2015 to 2017, and 48% since the peak reached 2013. This marked decline is expected to contribute to a fall in the average annual number of program completions between 2019 and 2028 to 1,140 per year, and from 1,290 per year over the previous decade.

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The Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report

Prepared for the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

Author: Prism Economics and Analysis

The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CAF-FCA.

Canadian Apprenticeship Forum 364-440 Laurier Avenue West Ottawa ON K1R 7X6

Email: [email protected] Website: www.caf-fca.org Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

Copyright May 2019 ISBN#: 978-0-9808913-3-1

2 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

At Risk: Certifications Required Exceed Projected Completions

Balanced Conditions: Certifications Required in-line with Projected Completions

Ample Supply: Projected Completions Exceed Certifications Required

TOP - 10 RED SEAL TRADESCERTIFICATIONS

REQUIREDPROJECTED

JOURNEYPERSONSCarpenter 2,100 698

Cook 912 440

Hairstylist 126 104

Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician 605 583

Automotive Service Technician 1,611 1,774

Plumber 727 1,068

Welder 953 1,545

Steamfitter/Pipefitter 357 599

Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 678 1,413

Construction Electrician 1,260 3,179

Total 9,330 11,402

Figure 2- Projected Certification Requirements and Completions, 2019 to 2028

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

New Registrations Completions

Figure 1- Trends in Apprenticeship New Registrations and Completions, 2007 to 2028

3Apprenticeship Demand Atlantic Canada

Economic and Employment OutlookEconomic activity in Atlantic Canada is expected to receive a boost in 2019 from increased oil production from the Hebron Oil Platform in Newfoundland and Labrador, and a broad rise in exports and increased infrastructure investment across the region. Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to be restricted by limited population growth in most provinces, but a decline in Newfoundland and Labrador. Spurred by high levels of immigration to the province, Prince Edward Island is projected to lead the rest.

Figure 3- Employment Growth by Industry, Atlantic Canada, 2019 to 2028

INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

EMPLOYMENT SHARE (%)

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (000’S)

AVERAGE ANNUAL

GROWTH RATE (%)

RED SEAL TRADES INTENSIVE INDUSTRIESConstruction 8% -8.9 -1.1%Manufacturing 7% -3.5 -0.4%Oil and Gas, Mining, Other Primary and Utilities

5% -6.1 -1.0%

Transportation and Warehousing 5% -1.1 -0.2%Accommodation and Food 7% 5.5 0.7%Private Services 8% 5.3 0.6%

OTHER INDUSTRIES (LESS SKILLED TRADES INTENSIVE)Health, Education and Public Administration Services

31% 19.5 0.6%

Trade, Finance and Professional Services

30% 15.3 0.5%

Total 100% 26.2 0.2%

Historically, the economies of Atlantic provinces have been primarily driven by the service sector, which accounted for roughly 80% of real GDP and employment in 2017. In contrast, approximately 7% to 9% of employment is attributable to the construction industry, driven by strong residential and ICI (industrial, commercial, institutional) building sectors. The employment outlook is relatively flat, but modest hiring requirements are expected to be driven by rising retirements.

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Source: BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook


Population and Age DemographicsPopulation growth in Atlantic Canada is expected to decline in 2019 and 2020, due to a negative natural rate of population growth with deaths exceeding births and also by the region’s continued out-migration. Immigration will become increasingly important to sustain the population. Prince Edward Island is expected to lead the Atlantic provinces in population growth, driven by high numbers of international migrants.

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Figure 4 summarizes the age distribution of new registrations, highlighting the change in distribution from 2013 to 2017. The decline in new registrations was especially pronounced for the 20 to 24 age group, falling 23% over the four-year period. Despite this decline, this group maintained the highest proportion of new registrations, comprising 43% of all new registrants in 2017.

2017

45-49 50+40-4435-3930-34

45%21%

11%

13%

25-2920-24Under 20

Under 20 12%13%

20 to 24 45%45%

25 to 29 19%21%

30 to 34 10%11%

35 to 39 6%6%

40 to 44 4%2%

45 to 49 2%1%

50+ 1%0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

20172013

Figure 4- Total New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Age Group, 2013 and 2017


Labour Market Outlook SummaryFigure 5 provides an overview of the anticipated demand requirements and projected supply of new journeypersons for the top 10 Red Seal trades in the Atlantic region. Over the last decade, new registrations fluctuated between 2,600 and 3,100. In 2015, there was a significant increase in new registrations in the carpenter program, raising new registrations to a level not experienced since 2008. Since 2015 new registrations have fallen, led by a 36% decline in Newfoundland and Labrador between 2015 and 2017. Further declines in construction employment are expected to lead to lower annual new registrations over the near-term, reaching a projected low of 2,330 by 2028. Consistent with such a decline in new registrations, completions are also projected to decline by 5% over the forecast period, reaching a low of 1,126 by 2028. Completions increased in 2017, resulting from an increase in new registrations several years prior.

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Figure 5- Summary of Estimated Annual Certification Demand, New Program Registrations and Completions for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2018, and 2019 to 2028

* 2018 values are projected

ATLANTIC CANADA 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028

New Registrations 2,614 3,030 2,392 2,426 2,398 2,361 2,334 23,471

Avg. Annual Change (%) 16% -21% 1% -1% -2% -1% -3%

Completions 1,458 1,426 1,190 1,344 1,189 1,152 1,129 11,402

Avg. Annual Change (%) -2% -17% 13% -12% -3% -2% -3%

Total Demand for Certificate -185 423 1,691 466 785 866 1,000 9,330


Figure 6 compares new registrations (actual) with target registrations (these are registrations required to meet demand) for the top 10 Red Seal trades across Atlantic Canada. The analysis suggests that overall levels of new registrations are in-line with requirements, but they may need to rise in a number of trades by 2021 in order to meet expected increases in requirements later in the forecast period. Inter-provincial mobility will continue to play an important role in meeting skills requirements in the future.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20281500

2000

2500

3000

3500 Target New Registrations

Principal Demand

Figure 6- Total New Registrations and Target New Registrations for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2028

2014

-1500-1000

-500

500

1000

1500

2000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

CompletionsRelated Demand Principal Demand

Figure 7- Total Completions and Demand for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2028


Trends in Program Registrations and Completions A downward trend in total completions, coupled with rising retirements and stronger growth, is expected to close the gap between demand and supply of new journeypersons over the next ten years. Figure 7 provides a year-by-year breakdown of total completions and demand for the top 10 Red Seal trades. The potential for recruitment challenges is projected to rise over the latter part of the decade, driven primarily by the need to replace retiring workers, specifically for related occupations.

In 2017, project completions decreased demand for new journeypersons by 61% from the previous year. Several trades contributed to this observed decline, including welder, construction electrician, industrial mechanic (millwright), and plumber. Following 2017, demand is forecast to recover, before falling again in 2021, when major projects are completed. Construction demand may be less impacted by this cycle in the latter half of the decade, due to an increasing number of retiring workers. Any new major investment could have a significant impact on the current outlook.

375409

430 297

794569

144143

34 22

90104

165198

236229

242118

260 263

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Welder

Steamfitter/Pipefitter

Plumber

Industrial Mech. (Millwright)

Heavy Duty Equip Tech.

Hairstylist

Cook

Construction Electrcian

Carpenter

Auto Service Tech. New Registrations 2007-2017

New Registrations 2018-2028

Figure 8- Average Total New Registrations by Red Seal Trade, 2007 to 2017, and 2018 to 2028


On average and over this forecast period, new registrations are not projected to exceed historic levels. Figure 8 compares the average total new registrations in Red Seal trades over two time periods, 2007 to 2017 and 2018 to 2028. The largest decline in registrations is projected for construction trades, specifically carpenter (-31%), construction electrician (-28%), and steamfitter/pipefitter (-51%) trades. Despite this decline, construction electrician is anticipated to have the highest number of new registrations across Atlantic provinces.

Although average total registrations are not forecast to exceed historic levels, registrations are projected to increase for several trades compared to the last decade. These trades include automotive service technician (9%), heavy-duty equipment technician (15%), industrial mechanic (millright)(20%), and welder (1%).

Supply and DemandThe trends in registration and completion rates indicate that there should be a sufficient number of new journeypersons in most trades to sustain Atlantic Canada’s workforce certification rates over the next ten years, but not all of them. Although total demand is not projected to exceed the historic levels experienced over the last decade, requirements are expected to exceed projected completions in the carpenter, cook and heavy-duty equipment technician operator programs. Declines in construction requirements are expected to result in a significant drop in demand for new construction electricians. Figure 9 compares average annual total completions and certification demand from 2007 to 2017 and 2018 to 2028.

Demand 2007-2017

Demand 2018-2028

Completion 2007-2017

Completion 2018-2028

Figure 9- Average Total Completions and Demand by Red Seal Trade, 2007 to 2028

0 100 200 300 400 500

Welder

Steamfitter/Pipefitter

Plumber

Industrial Mech. (Millwright)

Heavy Duty Equip Tech.

Hairstylist

Cook

Construction Electrcian

Carpenter

Auto Service Tech.


Trade-Specific TablesThe following section contains trade-specific tables showing historic annual and annual average supply and demand projections for individual top 10 Red Seal trades. On the supply side, the tables include new program registrations, completions and imputed completion rates. On the demand side, estimates of certification requirements related to expansion demand (change in employment) and replacement demand (deaths and retirements) are attributed to both the principal, or apprenticeable trade, and related trades and occupations.

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE TECHNICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028

SUPPLY OF JOURNEYPERSONS

New Registrations 370 352 435 404 400 405 414 4,095

Avg. Annual Change (%) -5% 24% -7% -1% 0% 2%

Completions 151 175 174 226 179 176 179 1,774

Avg. Annual Change (%) 16% -1% 30% -21% -2% 2%

Completion Rate 159% 156% 171% 231% 186% 186% 186% 186%

DEMAND FOR PRINCIPAL TRADE

Replacement Demand 96 103 111 128 128 119 112 1,157

Expansion Demand -514 242 260 -67 -67 17 15 160

Total Principal Demand -418 345 371 61 61 28 127 1,317

DEMAND FOR RELATED TRADES

Replacement Demand 27 31 29 26 27 28 29 283

Expansion Demand -101 55 -25 2 -9 1 1 12

Total Related Demand -74 85 4 28 18 29 30 295

Total Demand for Certificate -492 430 375 89 79 165 157 1,611

Figure 10- Automotive Service Technician

*2018 estimated

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CARPENTER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 186% -58% 0% -3% -4% -3%

Completions 137 107 78 98 88 69 70 698

Avg. Annual Change (%) -22% -27% 26% -11% -21% 1%

Completion Rate 108% 91% 70% 85% 93% 93% 93% 93%



Expansion Demand -58 159 -464 101 -153 -36 -6 -209

Total Principal Demand 104 325 -313 253 12 77 153 1,433



Expansion Demand 23 -112 -70 -31 24 -13 -5 -90

Total Related Demand 149 10 48 39 95 64 69 667

Total Demand for Certificate 253 335 -266 293 107 198 222 2,100

CONSTRUCTION ELECTRICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -6% -17% -2% -2% -7% -3%

Completions 511 526 375 401 358 327 308 3,179

Avg. Annual Change (%) 3% -29% 7% -11% -8% -6%

Completion Rate 232% 249% 184% 174% 206% 206% 206% 206%



Expansion Demand -97 -1,046 486 -171 -132 -114 -9 -618

Total Principal Demand 282 -723 832 3 31 61 115 714



Expansion Demand -172 75 -16 -53 14 -8 -4 -61

Total Related Demand -105 146 55 -1 68 53 56 546

Total Demand for Certificate 176 -577 887 2 99 80 172 1,260

Figure 11- Carpenter

Figure 12- Construction Electrician

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


COOK 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 16% -11% 3% 2% 5% 4%

Completions 49 52 40 50 41 43 45 440

Avg. Annual Change (%) 6% -23% 25% -17% 4% 4%

Completion Rate 155% 165% 111% 135% 137% 137% 137% 137%



Expansion Demand -43 73 2 7 40 14 14 139

Total Principal Demand -3 115 46 54 87 15 68 691



Expansion Demand -348 179 -42 14 16 7 5 62

Total Related Demand -337 193 -29 27 29 22 22 222

Total Demand for Certificate -340 308 17 81 116 92 90 912

HAIRSTYLIST 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028


New Registrations 39 42 35 22 22 22 23 223

Avg. Annual Change (%) 8% -17% -37% -1% 0% 3%

Completions 23 21 13 9 15 10 10 104

Avg. Annual Change (%) -9% -38% -31% 69% -32% 0%

Completion Rate 87% 98% 64% 43% 75% 75% 75% 75%



Expansion Demand -134 112 -134 -26 -8 4 5 46

Total Principal Demand -118 130 -119 -10 8 0 13 126



Expansion Demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Total Demand for Certificate -118 130 -119 -10 8 13 13 126

Figure 13- Cook

Figure 14- Hairstylist

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


HEAVY-DUTY EQUIPMENT TECHNICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -19% 0% 37% 1% -3% -4%

Completions 66 32 55 44 50 59 57 583

Avg. Annual Change (%) -52% 72% -20% 14% 18% -4%

Completion Rate 246% 120% 171% 165% 176% 176% 176% 176%



Expansion Demand 79 -140 -193 -58 38 -12 -8 -102

Total Principal Demand 163 -61 -122 -7 96 15 47 468



Expansion Demand 13 15 1 -15 3 0 -1 -7


Total Demand for Certificate 192 -29 -104 -7 113 61 60 605

INDUSTRIAL MECHANIC (MILLWRIGHT)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -13% -19% 47% -1% -1% -3%

Completions 108 107 119 97 117 142 141 1,413

Avg. Annual Change (%) -1% 11% -18% 21% 21% -1%

Completion Rate 316% 321% 332% 281% 309% 309% 309% 309%



Expansion Demand -154 -163 314 -21 -6 -3 -11 -68

Total Principal Demand -94 -109 381 19 53 13 49 544



Expansion Demand 53 -18 -62 5 2 2 -1 7

Total Related Demand 72 0 -46 19 15 15 12 135

Total Demand for Certificate -22 -109 335 38 68 75 61 678

Figure 15- Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician

Figure 16- Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


PLUMBER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -12% 10% 21% -1% -1% 1%

Completions 136 117 106 105 94 106 107 1,068

Avg. Annual Change (%) -14% -9% -1% -11% 13% 1%

Completion Rate 217% 186% 145% 154% 183% 183% 183% 183%



Expansion Demand -172 0 168 -82 -34 -4 7 18

Total Principal Demand -77 95 271 -28 15 21 59 527



Expansion Demand -23 56 19 -3 2 -2 -1 -15

Total Related Demand -3 80 44 17 22 19 21 200

Total Demand for Certificate -80 175 315 -11 38 66 80 727

STEAMFITTER/PIPEFITTER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 19% -32% -34% -4% -9% 0%

Completions 145 105 91 164 97 62 58 599

Avg. Annual Change (%) -28% -13% 80% -41% -37% -6%

Completion Rate 191% 199% 188% 270% 206% 206% 206% 206%



Expansion Demand -190 -235 -272 -131 -76 -46 -12 -287

Total Principal Demand -74 -131 -180 -77 -16 9 41 275



Expansion Demand 10 13 3 -9 2 -1 -1 -12


Total Demand for Certificate -55 -108 -167 -78 -5 23 49 357

Figure 17- Plumber

Figure 18- Steamfitter/Pipefitter

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


WELDER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -2% -8% 7% 2% 0% -2%

Completions 132 184 139 150 150 156 153 1,545

Avg. Annual Change (%) 39% -24% 8% 0% 4% -2%

Completion Rate 230% 314% 205% 242% 240% 240% 240% 240%



Expansion Demand 117 -194 268 -14 62 -16 -7 -114

Total Principal Demand 230 -90 379 75 151 12 88 860



Expansion Demand 54 -56 24 -17 1 -3 -1 -19

Total Related Demand 71 -42 39 -6 13 9 10 93

Total Demand for Certificate 301 -132 418 70 163 93 98 953

Figure19- Welder

*2018 estimated


apprentice demand in the top ten red seal trades...and for red seal trades in prince edward island....

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