april 18 aryaduta presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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South Sulawesi, Indonesia ProvincialOpinion Poll
January 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012
International Republican Institute
Lembaga Survei Indonesia
with funding from the
United States Agency for International Development
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 20122
Methodology This survey was designed, analyzed and fielded by Lembaga Survei Indonesia under the supervision of
Fallon Research and Communications on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
The provincial representative survey was carried out from January 12-February 1, 2012. A sample of720 South Sulawesi participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.
Multi-stage sampling was used to select villages from South Sulawesis 24 districts to be included
in the sample.
The Kish grid method was used to randomize the selection within households among eligiblerespondents. The households were selected using the random route method.
The sample was distributed at the district level, in rural and urban areas, in 24 districts of South
Sulawesi. The response rate was 76 percent.
The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.7 percent with a confidence level of 95percent.
Fifty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 10 interviews per PSU. The
interviews were administered using local dialects and conducted by interviewers who are native speakers. The survey questions were asked in a different order than the order in which they are presented here.
Due to rounding, charts may not add up to 100 percent.
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 20123
Survey DemographicsMale 50% Female 50%
Urban 31% Rural 69%
Marital StatusMarried 87%Single 9%
Widow/Widower 4%
EducationLess than or equal to primary 50%Junior high or equivalent 18%Senior high or equivalent 24%
College/University 9%
Age
Younger than 24 7%24 to 34 24%
35 to 44 30%45 to 54 18%55+ 21%
Monthly Household Income
Up to 400,000 rupiah 38%400,000 to 999,999 rupiah 27%1,000,000+ rupiah 35%
Religion
Islam 90%Christian 9%Other 2%
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 20124
District of Respondents
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SAMPLE VALIDATION
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 20127
Demography of the Respondents
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SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
9
Generally speaking, would you say that things in this
province are headed in the right direction or the wrongdirection?
72
10
1
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Right direction Wrong direction No response Don't know
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
10
Why do you think that things in your province are headingin the right direction? (Closed-ended)
Respondents who think things are headed in the right direction, N=516
5
4
11
23
26
33
0 10 20 30 40
No response/Don't know
Other
Economic conditions are good
The general environment is good or improving
There is peace and security
Government governs well/Assisting people
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
11
Why do you think that things in your province are headingin the wrong direction?
Respondents who think things are headed in the wrong direction, N=70
2
13
4
11
12
16
17
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
No response/Don't know
Other
There is instability
Low standard of living
Limited job opportunities
Corruption
Economic conditions are not good
The government is not governing well
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
12
Compared to a year ago, has your personal financial
situation improved, stayed the same or worsened?
35
44
20
1
Improved Stayed the same Worsened No response/Don'tknow
05
10
15
2025
30
35
40
45
50
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
13
Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic
situation in your household is going to get better, stay thesame or get worse?
Better46%
Stay the same35%
Worse6%
No response/Don'tknow13%
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ELECTION INDEX
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
15
Did you vote in the April 2009 provincial parliamentary
elections?
Yes90%
No9%
No response/Don't
know1%
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
16
Which one of the following statements most determines forwhom you vote?
14
2
11
20
22
31
0 10 20 30 40
Don't know
No response
Other
I usually vote for the same candidate or his localpolitical group
I usually vote for the same political party
I usually don't vote for the same political party orpolitical group and my vote depends upon various
other factors
I usually don't vote for the same political partyor political group and my vote depends upon
various other factors
I usually vote for the same candidate or hislocal political group
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
17
People give different reasons for why they vote for one partyrather than another. Which of the following describes your
reason for voting for a particular party instead of another party?
10
1
6
8
16
17
21
21
0 5 10 15 20 25
Don't know
No response
Other
The party had the best candidate in my constituency
The party has the best policies
The party provides assistance
The party's candidate has been working in myconstituency
The party has the best leader
The party's candidate has been working in my
constituency
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
18
Which of the following criteria or characteristics are the
most important to you when selecting a legislative
candidate to vote for ? (First priority)Responses two percent and greater
4
2
2
3
4
5
5
12
12
46
0 10 20 30 40 50
No response/Don't know
Charisma
Proposed policies
Intelligence
Experience as a leader
The support he/she has from the public
Opposed to corruption
Religious
Close to people
Honesty
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
19
I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreementwith the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for
a political party which includes more young people in theirpolitical party.
5 59 23 1 12
0 20 40 60 80 100
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree No response/Don't know
64% Agree24% Disagree
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
20
I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreement
with the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for apolitical party that nominates more women legislative candidates.
3 45 38 3 12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree No response/Don't know
48% Agree 41% Disagree
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
21
If there are two candidates campaigning for the same elected office
with exactly the same qualifications, but one is a man and the otheris a woman, which one would you be more likely to vote for?
9
49
39
4
Prefer to vote for awoman
Prefer to vote for aman
Gender makes nodifference to me
No response/Don'tknow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
22
If provincial parliamentary elections were held next week,
how likely is it that you will vote?
61
35
1 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not vote at all No response/Don'tknow
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Undecided Voter Profile
35% out of 720 respondents
Analysis shows that voters who do not know which party theysupport to be:
Female
Even split in rural/urban residents
Less than or equal to primary education level From households with gross monthly income less than 400,000 rupiah
Even spilt among age groups
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ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
25
Which one of the following issues is of greatest concernto you?
Only displaying responses of two percent and greater
8
2
2
2
2
4
6
7
8
8
11
14
26
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
No response/Don't know
Problems of water supply
Increase in level of crime
Low quality and high prices of health care
Solution to housing problems
Quality and accessibility of education
Corruption
Unemployment and threat of losing job
Not a sufficient level of support to small business
Low standard of living and low income
Insufficent support to farmers
Lack of infrastructure (electricity, roads, etc.)
Inflation and price increases
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
26
On the issue most important to you, do you feel that the
provincial government is capable of solving the problemwithin the next two years ?
Yes45%
No24%
No response/Don'tknow31%
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
27
If you could improve one service or policy in your area,what would it be? (Open-ended)Only displaying responses of two percent and greater
9
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
5
8
9
41
0 10 20 30 40 50
No response/Don't know
Economy
Flooding
Housing
Security
Decrease price of basic needs
Employment
Environment and sanitation
Availabilty of clean water
Agriculture (fertilizer, irrigation)
Water drainage
Infrastructure (roads, electricity, bridges)
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012
28
In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption within the
government in your province?
17 23 15 9 3 34
0 20 40 60 80 100
Very prevalent Somewhat prevalent Not very prevalent
Not prevalent at all No response Don't know
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 29
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the provincial
governments efforts to fight corruption?
2 24 38 9 3 25
0 20 40 60 80 100
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied
Very unsatisfied No response Don't know
26% Satisfied 47% Unsatisfied
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 30
In your opinion, what is the most corrupt institution in
the province? (Open-ended)Responses two percent and greater
70
2
2
2
4
7
7
0 20 40 60 80
No response/Don't know
Ministry of Public Works
Ministry of Education and Culture
Tax office
Legal institutions
Local government
Parliament/Local parliament
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 31
Turning to a different topic, in the past year has any
legislator or political party member contacted you aboutany issue of importance to you?
Yes7%
No91%
No response/Don'tknow2%
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 32
Has your representative in the DPRD ever tried to contactyou?
3 5 6
75 78
94
June-08 January-09 July-09
Yes No
In the future should a legislator or political party member
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 33
In the future, should a legislator or political party member
need to contact you, what is the most convenient way for
you to be contacted?Responses two percent and greater
10
2
2
2
3
6
7
8
9
40
54
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
No response/Don't know
Radio program
Letter
SMS
Media (e.g. newspaper)
In person/Travel to my office
Through a political party event
Through a non-governmental organization
Telephone
Through a community/Public event
In person/Travel to my house
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 34
Have you ever given money to a political party?
3
96
2
Yes No No response/Don't know0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 35
If no, why have you not given money to a political party?Respondents indicating that they have not given money to a political party, N=699
Responses two percent and greater
5
3
6
6
7
8
9
40
54
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
No response/Don't know
Political parties have too much money
It is not appropriate to give money to politicsalparties
The political party's funding is its business
Not a political party member
Not interested in politcs
Never been asked, but if asked I will contribute
Have other necessities
No funds available to give
It is not appropriate to give money to politicalparties
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 36
In your opinion, are people in your province afraid to
openly express their political views or not?
9 17 37 18 20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid No response/Don't know
What is your opinion about the trend of religious
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 37
What is your opinion about the trend of religious
extremism in your province compared to two years ago?
Has it increased, stayed more or less the same ordecreased?
14 32 24 30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Increased More or less the same Decreased No response/Don't know
Ho concerned if at all are o abo t the rise of
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 38
How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise ofreligious extremism in your province these days?
Respondents having the opinion that the trend of religious extremism in the province hasincreased, N=99
27 34 27 5 7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned No response/Don't know
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INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS
39
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 40
Now I am going to read various problems, and please rate
the provincial governments performance on each of theissues listed below.
23
31
32
35
41
5152
57
59
61
63
67
71
72
73
23
47
32
26
20
2316
21
15
14
15
15
11
15
15
29
25
27
30
17
1619
12
18
18
17
3
13
6
7
25
6
10
9
23
1013
9
8
7
6
15
4
7
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fighting corruption
Inflation control
Employment
Poverty reduction
Housing
Fighting crimeDevelopment of roads and highways
Preserving the environment
Water availability
Water quality
Construction of public facilities schools, bridges, etc.
Gender/Religious/Race/Ethnicity-based discrimination
Availability of electricity
Improving the educational system
Health care
Good Fair Poor No response/Don't know
I ld lik k b i i h f
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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 41
I would like to ask you about your impressions on the performanceof the following institutions. How would you rate the performance
of each of the following institutions: very good, good, fair, poor orvery poor?
25
29
34
37
40
42
43
55
58
60
67
81
18
47
22
24
19
22
25
22
20
17
16
11
2
13
10
8
3
6
9
13
7
3
3
1
54
29
34
31
39
31
22
10
15
20
13
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
International non-governmental organizations
Political parties
Courts
Provincial parliament
Domestic non-governmental organizations
Local election commission
Local parliament
Police
Civil service employees
Media
Governor
Religious leaders
Good Fair Poor No response/Don't know
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 42
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work
provided by the provincial legislature?
2 45 27 3 2 22
0 20 40 60 80 100
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied
Very unsatisfied No response Don't know
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 43
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work
provided by the district head in your city/village?
7 62 24 11 6
0 20 40 60 80 100
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied
Very unsatisfied No response Don't know
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 44
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work
provided by the governor of your province?
6 64 18 11 11
0 20 40 60 80 100
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied
Very unsatisfied No response Don't know
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MEDIA INDEX
45
What are the main sources of political information for
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 46
you?
Only displaying responses of one percent and greater
21
1
1
1
2
3
3
6
61
0 20 40 60 80
No response/Don't know
Internet
Religious leader
Radio
Village news board
Village head
Newspapers
Relatives, friends
TV
How do you rate the credibility of each of these
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 47
y y
information sources on a scale of one to five, where one
means very unreliable and five means very credible?Responses of three or higher only
8482
8176
7161
55
41
3331
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
O h f d h I ?
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 48
On average, how often do you use the Internet?
8
76
5
1
2
4
4
0 20 40 60 80
No response/Don't know
Never
Less often
Once a month
Once a week
A few times per week
Everyday
What do you use the Internet for mostly?
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 49
What do you use the Internet for mostly?Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117
1
1
2
2
2
4
6
11
12
14
21
24
30
0 10 20 30 40
No response/Don't know
Looking for work
Learning
Shopping
Watch videos
Blog
Research
Listen to music
Games
Facebook
Email
Work
Chat
Where do you most regularly access the Internet?
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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,
January 2012 50
Where do you most regularly access the Internet?Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117
4
2
2
8
27
28
31
0 10 20 30 40
No response/Don't know
School
Relatives' or friends' home
Work
Cell phone or mobile connection
Home
Internet caf
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South Sulawesi, Indonesia ProvincialOpinion PollJanuary 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012
International Republican Institute
Lembaga Survei Indonesia
with funding from the
United States Agency for International Development
51