april 9, 2020 livestock and poultry: world markets …...however, world production in 2020 remains...

17
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade COVID-19 Upends Global Protein Markets Global export forecasts for beef and chicken meat trade have been trimmed due to emerging threats from the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Economic growth forecasts have been cut for 2020 and the impact on consumers will dampen demand for animal protein. Widespread closures of restaurants and food service outlets as well as a reduction in tourism and travel will shift demand for protein among both types of meat as well as cuts. Furthermore, shipping disruptions have already impacted global trade by clogging ports and reducing container availability, at least in short run. Full impacts are likely still to develop, but the livestock and poultry sectors’ response at all levels of the supply and distribution chain are likely to impact supplies in the future. Contrasting extensive economic headwinds, impacts from African swine fever in China and other countries remain a dominant factor in the market for pork. Exports are raised for pork as sharply lower pork production in China is still expected to drive record trade. However, COVID-19 has added significant uncertainty to the forecasts and is expected to disrupt trade in 2020. 5 7 9 11 13 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Beef) 2020 (Pork) 2020 (Chicken) Million MT (CWE/RTC) Export Forecasts Lowered for Beef & Chicken in 2020 Beef Pork Chicken Forecast-to-forecast

Upload: others

Post on 06-Jul-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service April 9, 2020

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

COVID-19 Upends Global Protein Markets

Global export forecasts for beef and chicken meat trade have been trimmed due to emerging threats from the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Economic growth forecasts have been cut for 2020 and the impact on consumers will dampen demand for animal protein. Widespread closures of restaurants and food service outlets as well as a reduction in tourism and travel will shift demand for protein among both types of meat as well as cuts. Furthermore, shipping disruptions have already impacted global trade by clogging ports and reducing container availability, at least in short run. Full impacts are likely still to develop, but the livestock and poultry sectors’ response at all levels of the supply and distribution chain are likely to impact supplies in the future. Contrasting extensive economic headwinds, impacts from African swine fever in China and other countries remain a dominant factor in the market for pork. Exports are raised for pork as sharply lower pork production in China is still expected to drive record trade. However, COVID-19 has added significant uncertainty to the forecasts and is expected to disrupt trade in 2020.

5

7

9

11

13

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(Beef)

2020(Pork)

2020(Chicken)

Mill

ion

MT

(CW

E/RT

C)

Export Forecasts Lowered for Beef & Chicken in 2020

Beef Pork ChickenForecast-to-forecast

Page 2: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Beef

• The global beef production forecast for 2020 is revised marginally lower from the prior forecast as world economic disruptions associated with COVID-19 suppress beef demand and lead producers to adjust their production plans. Global beef production in 2020 is expected to decline slightly year-over-year with lower production caused by herd rebuilding in Australia mostly offset by growth in Brazil, China, and North America.

• The global beef trade forecast was revised down 8 percent from the prior forecast, though approximately half of this change is due to recently revised conversion rates (see Notes to Readers). Year-over-year, global beef trade is expected to decline 2 percent as world economic growth is negatively impacted by COVID-19. This is expected to cause consumers to switch to less expensive protein sources and adjust dining patterns. Depressed restaurant traffic is expected to negatively impact beef demand because a large proportion of global consumption takes place in the HRI sector (hotels, restaurants, and other institutions).

Pork

• The global pork production forecast is lowered by 2 percent to 94.3 million tons on lowered expectations for China where the industry struggles to recover from African swine fever (ASF). Global production is forecast 7 percent lower year-over-year, largely due to reduced output in China, Vietnam, and Philippines, all countries affected by ASF. Production growth in the United States, Brazil, and to a lesser extent the EU Customs Union (EU27+UK) offsets some of the declines in Asia, as recent strong export demand has encouraged producers to expand herds.

• Global pork exports are raised to 10.5 million tons due to strong demand for pork from China. China’s imports are raised to 3.9 million tons, accounting for 40 percent of global imports. Import forecasts for countries other than China have mostly been reduced for 2020. Weaker expected economic growth and impacts of COVID-19 on food service demand is expected to dampen demand for pork.

Chicken Meat

• The forecast for global chicken meat production is revised 2 percent lower to 100.5 million tons as gains in China fail to offset lowered production forecasts for all major producers. However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United States more than offset declines in EU27+UK, India, Thailand and Turkey. Compared to red meats, chicken meat demand is expected to be more resilient when faced with economic turmoil due to its position as a low-cost versatile animal protein culturally acceptable in virtually all markets.

• Global chicken meat trade is revised 4 percent lower to 11.7 million tons on downward revisions for all major exporters except Brazil. As a result, world chicken meat trade will contract 1 percent in 2020 compared to last year despite minor gains by Brazil and the United States. Although the pair combined account for 60 percent of world trade, their export gains will be outweighed by depressed shipments from other leading exporters (EU27+UK, Thailand, China, and Turkey).

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 3: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Notice: Changes in Conversion Rates of Red Meat Trade Data…… 4

Beef and Veal Beef Summary Tables.………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 Cattle Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 7 Pork

Pork Summary Tables……………………………………………………………………………………. 9 Swine Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 11 Chicken Meat Chicken Meat Summary Tables …………………………………………………………………….. 13 Notes to Readers……………………………………………………………………………………… 15

Table of Contents

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 4: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Obust

As a result of continuous efforts to improve data reliability, the trade forecasts in this report reflect new conversion rates.

Historical data revisions (from 2005 onward) are available in the PSD database (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline).

Data prior to 2005 will continue to use the following conversion rates:

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30

Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK

BEEF AND VEAL

Beef & Veal PorkConversion Rate 1.4 1.3

Fresh/Chilled: 0201 Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319

Frozen: 0202 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329

Processed: 021020 & 160250 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

HS Codes

Notice: Changes in Conversion Rates of Red Meat Trade Data

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 5: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Production

10,31010,58510,2009,9009,5509,284 Brazil

7,8007,7807,9008,0037,8697,880 European Union

6,9506,6256,6706,4406,3466,169 China

4,1504,3004,3054,2404,2304,170 India

3,0853,1503,1203,0502,8402,650 Argentina

2,0852,0852,4322,3062,1492,125 Australia

2,0652,0652,0301,9801,9251,879 Mexico

1,8401,8401,8201,8001,7801,750 Pakistan

1,3771,3771,3691,3571,3251,339 Russia

1,3751,3701,3401,2651,2011,130 Canada

7,9807,9188,1088,0938,0398,149 Others

49,01749,09549,29448,43447,25446,525 Total Foreign

12,51512,51412,38112,25611,94311,507 United States

61,53261,60961,67560,69059,19758,032 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

9,4299,5088,8267,8087,2366,873 China

7,8508,0477,9297,9257,8017,695 Brazil

7,7907,7757,9118,0717,8847,940 European Union

2,7502,6002,8112,7292,4442,461 India

2,4252,3252,3742,5682,5572,441 Argentina

1,9051,8801,9061,9021,8681,833 Mexico

1,7861,7661,7711,7531,7361,702 Pakistan

1,7091,7911,7531,7901,7801,797 Russia

1,3361,3601,3191,2981,2541,193 Japan

1,0039851,0281,014988963 Canada

9,1949,3469,5869,6339,5529,680 Others

47,17747,38347,21446,49145,10044,578 Total Foreign

12,38912,32112,40712,18012,05211,676 United States

59,56659,70459,62158,67157,15256,254 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the following

countries are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a month beneath

a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 6: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Imports

2,5002,9002,1771,369902761 China

870890853840793698 Japan

550625563515468450 Korea, South

350430401449469470 Russia

340395347308273290 Chile

330350356521524442 Hong Kong

310355341363329359 European Union

290320310300250340 Egypt

210215204236229245 Canada

180195197204199206 Malaysia

1,4571,7041,6721,6301,6141,590 Others

7,3878,3797,4216,7356,0505,851 Total Foreign

1,3341,3061,3871,3601,3581,366 United States

8,7219,6858,8088,0957,4087,217 Total

none

Total Exports

2,5002,5802,3142,0211,8031,652 Brazil

1,4001,4701,7381,5821,4161,412 Australia

1,4001,7001,4941,5111,7861,709 India

675840763501283209 Argentina

610642623602564560 New Zealand

590610525478444418 Canada

430468436437409396 Uruguay

330350339358366377 Paraguay

320360330295314299 European Union

320390314272245227 Mexico

657692631616588574 Others

9,23210,1029,5078,6738,2187,833 Total Foreign

1,4331,4991,3711,4341,2971,160 United States

10,66511,60110,87810,1079,5158,993 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the

following countries are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 7: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Cattle Stocks - Top Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

303,200308,700302,700301,900301,400301,000 India

244,144244,150238,158232,350226,045219,180 Brazil

91,38087,50089,15390,38788,34590,558 China

86,59486,25087,45088,81989,15289,152 European Union

53,68553,68553,80553,71553,51552,565 Argentina

23,69023,93425,73426,17624,97127,413 Australia

18,04417,93018,05018,19518,24818,528 Russia

16,90016,92016,69916,58416,49016,615 Mexico

11,46411,44111,39611,74411,86412,016 Uruguay

11,09411,04511,44011,56511,53511,610 Canada

32,89832,77932,66332,62932,44632,136 Others

893,093894,334887,248884,064874,011870,773 Total Foreign

94,41394,70094,80594,29893,62591,888 United States

987,506989,034982,053978,362967,636962,661 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

69,40069,40069,00068,60068,20067,500 India

51,50051,50050,49049,50048,73548,250 Brazil

51,00049,50050,75047,50048,80048,890 China

28,50028,30028,90028,85029,55030,100 European Union

14,90014,90014,78014,65014,20014,000 Argentina

8,3008,3008,7009,1009,7006,600 Australia

8,1058,1057,9007,7007,4857,100 Mexico

6,6506,6506,7006,5666,5736,560 Russia

4,9704,8755,1504,8954,7285,060 New Zealand

4,2004,4004,2514,2924,3484,272 Canada

10,34010,35810,28010,37610,49210,215 Others

257,865256,288256,901252,029252,811248,547 Total Foreign

35,80036,20036,06036,31335,75835,063 United States

293,665292,488292,961288,342288,569283,610 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in

which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 8: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Imports

280280340250250300 Egypt

26025027520214132 Canada

100170210168121133 China

1001001121156563 Russia

282830243231 Mexico

231721171716 Others

791845988776626575 Total Foreign

2,0652,0652,0431,8991,8071,708 United States

2,8562,9103,0312,6752,4332,283 Total

none

Total Exports

1,3301,4001,3301,2781,2031,130 Mexico

9909201,0161,0051,028997 European Union

9009001,3971,1518851,154 Australia

715700725631642766 Canada

605605554785407293 Brazil

349337352536482434 Others

4,8894,8625,3745,3864,6474,774 Total Foreign

28528530524419369 United States

5,1745,1475,6795,6304,8404,843 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in

which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 9: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Pork Production - Top Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Production

34,00036,00042,55054,04054,51854,255 China

24,15024,25023,93524,08223,66023,866 European Union

4,1304,1553,9753,7633,7253,700 Brazil

3,4353,3303,3213,1552,9592,820 Russia

2,2502,2502,3802,8112,7412,701 Vietnam

2,0452,0852,0201,9551,9581,914 Canada

1,4601,4651,4081,3211,2671,211 Mexico

1,4501,4751,5851,6011,5631,540 Philippines

1,3501,3351,3641,3291,2801,266 Korea, South

1,2801,2901,2791,2841,2721,279 Japan

5,6015,7495,6105,6485,4955,474 Others

81,15183,38489,427100,989100,438100,026 Total Foreign

13,17612,99912,54211,94311,61111,320 United States

94,32796,383101,969112,932112,049111,346 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

37,75039,60044,86655,29555,81256,086 China

20,26820,36520,40021,25820,90920,844 European Union

3,4303,3303,3603,2023,2963,138 Russia

3,1323,1573,1163,0432,9512,882 Brazil

2,7642,7852,7142,7742,7292,625 Japan

2,3152,3152,4202,8112,7172,662 Vietnam

2,1452,4502,1532,1161,9831,913 Mexico

1,9742,0442,0112,0011,9261,894 Korea, South

1,7291,7751,8061,8831,8011,732 Philippines

940940967913873865 Canada

6,8877,0987,0277,1226,8826,698 Others

83,33485,85990,840102,418101,879101,339 Total Foreign

10,09410,16510,0649,7489,5419,476 United States

93,42896,024100,904112,166111,420110,815 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 10: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Pork Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Imports

3,8503,7002,4511,4571,5012,021 China

1,4901,4901,4931,4801,4731,360 Japan

9501,235975972885843 Mexico

625695694753645615 Korea, South

290300331411447409 Hong Kong

280300222283239193 Philippines

255260242228218211 Canada

240240269216215210 Australia

155150134969372 Chile

1421751381279765 Colombia

9801,0421,0411,0451,1911,082 Others

9,2579,5877,9907,0687,0047,081 Total Foreign

370401428473506495 United States

9,6279,9888,4187,5417,5107,576 Total

none

Total Exports

3,9003,9003,5512,8382,7643,034 European Union

1,3751,4001,2841,2771,2901,266 Canada

1,0001,000861722776820 Brazil

265250230177169141 Mexico

255270223190162163 Chile

100100135202207190 China

758068373021 Russia

354233413833 Australia

171717171614 South Africa

122013131410 Serbia

535351667686 Others

7,0877,1326,4665,5805,5425,778 Total Foreign

3,3913,2212,8672,6652,5552,376 United States

10,47810,3539,3338,2458,0978,154 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 11: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Swine Stocks - Top Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks

310,410335,000428,070441,589442,092458,029 China

148,200148,500148,167150,257147,188148,716 European Union

37,85037,72538,42738,82939,21539,422 Brazil

25,08324,60023,60022,94521,78221,239 Russia

13,87514,15013,96014,17013,93513,630 Canada

11,28011,09011,33311,27311,48710,187 Korea, South

11,05011,12510,70010,41010,22910,043 Mexico

9,0609,2429,1569,2809,3469,313 Japan

5,8486,1006,1506,2366,8167,240 Ukraine

2,9002,7252,8413,1563,1453,205 Belarus

nrnrnrnrnr2,272 Others

575,556600,257692,404708,145705,235723,296 Total Foreign

78,65877,33875,07073,14571,34569,019 United States

654,214677,595767,474781,290776,580792,315 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

450,000412,000440,000687,500705,000672,500 China

268,000270,000265,000267,000267,250266,000 European Union

52,41052,60051,39849,50045,70042,595 Russia

44,25044,00042,25040,95440,23039,635 Brazil

28,20028,90028,27228,01729,02628,812 Canada

20,27520,20019,65018,65018,10017,700 Mexico

19,20019,41519,88919,11818,19119,504 Korea, South

16,80017,03016,74016,69016,78516,900 Japan

8,4508,7508,7408,8138,7679,296 Ukraine

5,0004,7254,9005,0505,3255,200 Belarus

nrnrnrnrnr5,028 Others

912,585877,620896,8391,141,2921,154,3741,123,170 Total Foreign

141,669142,790139,993132,568129,429125,907 United States

1,054,2541,020,4101,036,8321,273,8601,283,8031,249,077 Total

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. nr -

represents "no reporting" countries (data sets excluded beginning in 2017). From 2017, the following country is excluded:

Australia.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 12: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Swine Trade - Top Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Imports

414138334220 Mexico

2525410138 China

2020223084 Ukraine

101013868 Russia

336333 Canada

333363 European Union

222369 Belarus

111110 Brazil

111111 Japan

111253 Korea, South

nrnrnrnrnr0 Others

10710791949159 Total Foreign

5,0004,9905,1005,2505,5975,657 United States

5,1075,0975,1915,3445,6885,716 Total

none

Total Exports

5,0005,0005,1165,2635,6145,672 Canada

6006009561,5671,5661,551 China

350375369509339288 European Union

1189852 Brazil

1021093327 Ukraine

356767 Russia

000025 Belarus

000000 Japan

000000 Korea, South

000070 Mexico

nrnrnrnrnr0 Others

5,9745,9906,4667,3637,5727,552 Total Foreign

556060645948 United States

6,0296,0506,5267,4277,6317,600 Total

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. From 2017,

the following country is excluded: Australia.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 13: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Chicken Meat Production - Top Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Production

15,50014,80013,75011,70011,60012,448 China

13,77513,91513,69013,35513,61213,523 Brazil

11,95012,60012,46012,26011,91211,560 European Union

4,6854,7604,6714,6844,6804,328 Russia

4,0004,9024,3504,0623,7673,464 India

3,6703,7253,6003,4853,4003,275 Mexico

2,9003,4903,3003,1702,9902,813 Thailand

2,1752,2152,1712,0682,1502,119 Argentina

2,0752,4002,1382,1572,1371,879 Turkey

1,7601,7901,7611,6951,6261,538 Colombia

17,50817,71417,20716,52015,91415,691 Others

79,99882,31179,09875,15673,78872,638 Total Foreign

20,51120,61519,94119,36118,93818,510 United States

100,509102,92699,03994,51792,72691,148 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

15,85015,12013,90211,59511,47512,492 China

11,18011,70011,63611,53711,28110,994 European Union

9,90310,1759,8659,6719,7689,637 Brazil

4,7404,7854,7244,7854,7854,449 Russia

4,5584,5884,4734,3014,1984,061 Mexico

3,9984,9004,3474,0593,7653,461 India

2,8202,8202,8012,7612,6882,587 Japan

2,0352,0662,0211,9551,9781,969 Argentina

2,0002,5002,4592,3542,2262,129 Thailand

1,8901,9901,8161,7011,6091,531 Philippines

22,21722,78922,38121,73521,14120,794 Others

81,19183,43380,42576,45474,91474,104 Total Foreign

17,29917,27116,70016,18415,82615,510 United States

98,490100,70497,12592,63890,74089,614 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year

was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 14: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Chicken Meat Trade - Top Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jan

2020

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,0851,0951,0761,0741,056973 Japan

895865880820804791 Mexico

725750580342311430 China

680710724704692763 European Union

630465625579439422 United Arab Emirates

575635601629711878 Saudi Arabia

475500501527444563 Iraq

430480485521508504 South Africa

370390366321266244 Philippines

290360293215291344 Hong Kong

3,5203,6423,7993,6213,5283,264 Others

9,6759,8929,9309,3539,0509,176 Total Foreign

626261645961 United States

9,7379,9549,9919,4179,1099,237 Total

none

Total Exports

3,8753,7453,8303,6873,8473,889 Brazil

1,4501,6101,5481,4271,3231,329 European Union

810970881826757690 Thailand

400450409317263235 Ukraine

375430428447436386 China

360430408418357263 Turkey

185185172168150145 Belarus

170170164131125104 Russia

145158155124178158 Argentina

125125124124134134 Canada

497482501402336368 Others

8,3928,7558,6208,0717,9067,701 Total Foreign

3,3163,4043,2613,2453,1373,086 United States

11,70812,15911,88111,31611,04310,787 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2019, Yemen is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month

in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 15: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2018: Revisions are made based on new and/or additional information.

Commodity/Attribute Years Countries Cattle

Production 2012-2017 India Beef

Trade 2005-2017 All Countries Pork

Production 2005-2017 Angola, Chile, Congo (Kinshasa), Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Macedonia, Montenegro, Panama, Serbia, and Uruguay.

Trade 2005-2017 All Countries Chicken Meat

Production 2005-2017 Turkey, Guatemala, Jordan Trade 2005-2017 EU27+UK, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Qatar

Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of April 9, 2020 and assumes their continuation.

Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts. Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.

RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of further processing.

Notes to Readers

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 16: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Conversion Rates and HS Codes

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30

Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK

BEEF AND VEAL

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 17: April 9, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets …...However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases. Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is July 10, 2020.

Country/Commodities for January and July Releases Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat Angola x Argentina x Australia x Brazil x x x Canada x x x China x x x Cuba x EU x x x Hong Kong x x Iraq x Japan x x x Mexico x x x New Zealand x Philippines x x Saudi Arabia x South Africa x South Korea x x x Thailand x United States x x x

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Swine and Pork Jake Vuillemin (202) 690-4476 [email protected] Cattle and Beef Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Chicken Meat

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 April 2020Global Market Analysis