april 9, 2020 livestock and poultry: world markets …...however, world production in 2020 remains...
TRANSCRIPT
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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service April 9, 2020
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
COVID-19 Upends Global Protein Markets
Global export forecasts for beef and chicken meat trade have been trimmed due to emerging threats from the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Economic growth forecasts have been cut for 2020 and the impact on consumers will dampen demand for animal protein. Widespread closures of restaurants and food service outlets as well as a reduction in tourism and travel will shift demand for protein among both types of meat as well as cuts. Furthermore, shipping disruptions have already impacted global trade by clogging ports and reducing container availability, at least in short run. Full impacts are likely still to develop, but the livestock and poultry sectors’ response at all levels of the supply and distribution chain are likely to impact supplies in the future. Contrasting extensive economic headwinds, impacts from African swine fever in China and other countries remain a dominant factor in the market for pork. Exports are raised for pork as sharply lower pork production in China is still expected to drive record trade. However, COVID-19 has added significant uncertainty to the forecasts and is expected to disrupt trade in 2020.
5
7
9
11
13
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(Beef)
2020(Pork)
2020(Chicken)
Mill
ion
MT
(CW
E/RT
C)
Export Forecasts Lowered for Beef & Chicken in 2020
Beef Pork ChickenForecast-to-forecast
Beef
• The global beef production forecast for 2020 is revised marginally lower from the prior forecast as world economic disruptions associated with COVID-19 suppress beef demand and lead producers to adjust their production plans. Global beef production in 2020 is expected to decline slightly year-over-year with lower production caused by herd rebuilding in Australia mostly offset by growth in Brazil, China, and North America.
• The global beef trade forecast was revised down 8 percent from the prior forecast, though approximately half of this change is due to recently revised conversion rates (see Notes to Readers). Year-over-year, global beef trade is expected to decline 2 percent as world economic growth is negatively impacted by COVID-19. This is expected to cause consumers to switch to less expensive protein sources and adjust dining patterns. Depressed restaurant traffic is expected to negatively impact beef demand because a large proportion of global consumption takes place in the HRI sector (hotels, restaurants, and other institutions).
Pork
• The global pork production forecast is lowered by 2 percent to 94.3 million tons on lowered expectations for China where the industry struggles to recover from African swine fever (ASF). Global production is forecast 7 percent lower year-over-year, largely due to reduced output in China, Vietnam, and Philippines, all countries affected by ASF. Production growth in the United States, Brazil, and to a lesser extent the EU Customs Union (EU27+UK) offsets some of the declines in Asia, as recent strong export demand has encouraged producers to expand herds.
• Global pork exports are raised to 10.5 million tons due to strong demand for pork from China. China’s imports are raised to 3.9 million tons, accounting for 40 percent of global imports. Import forecasts for countries other than China have mostly been reduced for 2020. Weaker expected economic growth and impacts of COVID-19 on food service demand is expected to dampen demand for pork.
Chicken Meat
• The forecast for global chicken meat production is revised 2 percent lower to 100.5 million tons as gains in China fail to offset lowered production forecasts for all major producers. However, world production in 2020 remains forecast higher (1 percent) versus last year as gains in Brazil, China and the United States more than offset declines in EU27+UK, India, Thailand and Turkey. Compared to red meats, chicken meat demand is expected to be more resilient when faced with economic turmoil due to its position as a low-cost versatile animal protein culturally acceptable in virtually all markets.
• Global chicken meat trade is revised 4 percent lower to 11.7 million tons on downward revisions for all major exporters except Brazil. As a result, world chicken meat trade will contract 1 percent in 2020 compared to last year despite minor gains by Brazil and the United States. Although the pair combined account for 60 percent of world trade, their export gains will be outweighed by depressed shipments from other leading exporters (EU27+UK, Thailand, China, and Turkey).
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
Notice: Changes in Conversion Rates of Red Meat Trade Data…… 4
Beef and Veal Beef Summary Tables.………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 Cattle Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 7 Pork
Pork Summary Tables……………………………………………………………………………………. 9 Swine Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 11 Chicken Meat Chicken Meat Summary Tables …………………………………………………………………….. 13 Notes to Readers……………………………………………………………………………………… 15
Table of Contents
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
Obust
As a result of continuous efforts to improve data reliability, the trade forecasts in this report reflect new conversion rates.
Historical data revisions (from 2005 onward) are available in the PSD database (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline).
Data prior to 2005 will continue to use the following conversion rates:
HS Code Description Conversion Rate020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79
HS Code Description Conversion Rate020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30
Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.
PORK
BEEF AND VEAL
Beef & Veal PorkConversion Rate 1.4 1.3
Fresh/Chilled: 0201 Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319
Frozen: 0202 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329
Processed: 021020 & 160250 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
HS Codes
Notice: Changes in Conversion Rates of Red Meat Trade Data
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Production
10,31010,58510,2009,9009,5509,284 Brazil
7,8007,7807,9008,0037,8697,880 European Union
6,9506,6256,6706,4406,3466,169 China
4,1504,3004,3054,2404,2304,170 India
3,0853,1503,1203,0502,8402,650 Argentina
2,0852,0852,4322,3062,1492,125 Australia
2,0652,0652,0301,9801,9251,879 Mexico
1,8401,8401,8201,8001,7801,750 Pakistan
1,3771,3771,3691,3571,3251,339 Russia
1,3751,3701,3401,2651,2011,130 Canada
7,9807,9188,1088,0938,0398,149 Others
49,01749,09549,29448,43447,25446,525 Total Foreign
12,51512,51412,38112,25611,94311,507 United States
61,53261,60961,67560,69059,19758,032 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
9,4299,5088,8267,8087,2366,873 China
7,8508,0477,9297,9257,8017,695 Brazil
7,7907,7757,9118,0717,8847,940 European Union
2,7502,6002,8112,7292,4442,461 India
2,4252,3252,3742,5682,5572,441 Argentina
1,9051,8801,9061,9021,8681,833 Mexico
1,7861,7661,7711,7531,7361,702 Pakistan
1,7091,7911,7531,7901,7801,797 Russia
1,3361,3601,3191,2981,2541,193 Japan
1,0039851,0281,014988963 Canada
9,1949,3469,5869,6339,5529,680 Others
47,17747,38347,21446,49145,10044,578 Total Foreign
12,38912,32112,40712,18012,05211,676 United States
59,56659,70459,62158,67157,15256,254 Total
Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the following
countries are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a month beneath
a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Imports
2,5002,9002,1771,369902761 China
870890853840793698 Japan
550625563515468450 Korea, South
350430401449469470 Russia
340395347308273290 Chile
330350356521524442 Hong Kong
310355341363329359 European Union
290320310300250340 Egypt
210215204236229245 Canada
180195197204199206 Malaysia
1,4571,7041,6721,6301,6141,590 Others
7,3878,3797,4216,7356,0505,851 Total Foreign
1,3341,3061,3871,3601,3581,366 United States
8,7219,6858,8088,0957,4087,217 Total
none
Total Exports
2,5002,5802,3142,0211,8031,652 Brazil
1,4001,4701,7381,5821,4161,412 Australia
1,4001,7001,4941,5111,7861,709 India
675840763501283209 Argentina
610642623602564560 New Zealand
590610525478444418 Canada
430468436437409396 Uruguay
330350339358366377 Paraguay
320360330295314299 European Union
320390314272245227 Mexico
657692631616588574 Others
9,23210,1029,5078,6738,2187,833 Total Foreign
1,4331,4991,3711,4341,2971,160 United States
10,66511,60110,87810,1079,5158,993 Total
Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the
following countries are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Cattle Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
303,200308,700302,700301,900301,400301,000 India
244,144244,150238,158232,350226,045219,180 Brazil
91,38087,50089,15390,38788,34590,558 China
86,59486,25087,45088,81989,15289,152 European Union
53,68553,68553,80553,71553,51552,565 Argentina
23,69023,93425,73426,17624,97127,413 Australia
18,04417,93018,05018,19518,24818,528 Russia
16,90016,92016,69916,58416,49016,615 Mexico
11,46411,44111,39611,74411,86412,016 Uruguay
11,09411,04511,44011,56511,53511,610 Canada
32,89832,77932,66332,62932,44632,136 Others
893,093894,334887,248884,064874,011870,773 Total Foreign
94,41394,70094,80594,29893,62591,888 United States
987,506989,034982,053978,362967,636962,661 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
69,40069,40069,00068,60068,20067,500 India
51,50051,50050,49049,50048,73548,250 Brazil
51,00049,50050,75047,50048,80048,890 China
28,50028,30028,90028,85029,55030,100 European Union
14,90014,90014,78014,65014,20014,000 Argentina
8,3008,3008,7009,1009,7006,600 Australia
8,1058,1057,9007,7007,4857,100 Mexico
6,6506,6506,7006,5666,5736,560 Russia
4,9704,8755,1504,8954,7285,060 New Zealand
4,2004,4004,2514,2924,3484,272 Canada
10,34010,35810,28010,37610,49210,215 Others
257,865256,288256,901252,029252,811248,547 Total Foreign
35,80036,20036,06036,31335,75835,063 United States
293,665292,488292,961288,342288,569283,610 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in
which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Imports
280280340250250300 Egypt
26025027520214132 Canada
100170210168121133 China
1001001121156563 Russia
282830243231 Mexico
231721171716 Others
791845988776626575 Total Foreign
2,0652,0652,0431,8991,8071,708 United States
2,8562,9103,0312,6752,4332,283 Total
none
Total Exports
1,3301,4001,3301,2781,2031,130 Mexico
9909201,0161,0051,028997 European Union
9009001,3971,1518851,154 Australia
715700725631642766 Canada
605605554785407293 Brazil
349337352536482434 Others
4,8894,8625,3745,3864,6474,774 Total Foreign
28528530524419369 United States
5,1745,1475,6795,6304,8404,843 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in
which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Pork Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Production
34,00036,00042,55054,04054,51854,255 China
24,15024,25023,93524,08223,66023,866 European Union
4,1304,1553,9753,7633,7253,700 Brazil
3,4353,3303,3213,1552,9592,820 Russia
2,2502,2502,3802,8112,7412,701 Vietnam
2,0452,0852,0201,9551,9581,914 Canada
1,4601,4651,4081,3211,2671,211 Mexico
1,4501,4751,5851,6011,5631,540 Philippines
1,3501,3351,3641,3291,2801,266 Korea, South
1,2801,2901,2791,2841,2721,279 Japan
5,6015,7495,6105,6485,4955,474 Others
81,15183,38489,427100,989100,438100,026 Total Foreign
13,17612,99912,54211,94311,61111,320 United States
94,32796,383101,969112,932112,049111,346 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
37,75039,60044,86655,29555,81256,086 China
20,26820,36520,40021,25820,90920,844 European Union
3,4303,3303,3603,2023,2963,138 Russia
3,1323,1573,1163,0432,9512,882 Brazil
2,7642,7852,7142,7742,7292,625 Japan
2,3152,3152,4202,8112,7172,662 Vietnam
2,1452,4502,1532,1161,9831,913 Mexico
1,9742,0442,0112,0011,9261,894 Korea, South
1,7291,7751,8061,8831,8011,732 Philippines
940940967913873865 Canada
6,8877,0987,0277,1226,8826,698 Others
83,33485,85990,840102,418101,879101,339 Total Foreign
10,09410,16510,0649,7489,5419,476 United States
93,42896,024100,904112,166111,420110,815 Total
Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Pork Trade - Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Imports
3,8503,7002,4511,4571,5012,021 China
1,4901,4901,4931,4801,4731,360 Japan
9501,235975972885843 Mexico
625695694753645615 Korea, South
290300331411447409 Hong Kong
280300222283239193 Philippines
255260242228218211 Canada
240240269216215210 Australia
155150134969372 Chile
1421751381279765 Colombia
9801,0421,0411,0451,1911,082 Others
9,2579,5877,9907,0687,0047,081 Total Foreign
370401428473506495 United States
9,6279,9888,4187,5417,5107,576 Total
none
Total Exports
3,9003,9003,5512,8382,7643,034 European Union
1,3751,4001,2841,2771,2901,266 Canada
1,0001,000861722776820 Brazil
265250230177169141 Mexico
255270223190162163 Chile
100100135202207190 China
758068373021 Russia
354233413833 Australia
171717171614 South Africa
122013131410 Serbia
535351667686 Others
7,0877,1326,4665,5805,5425,778 Total Foreign
3,3913,2212,8672,6652,5552,376 United States
10,47810,3539,3338,2458,0978,154 Total
Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Swine Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Beginning Stocks
310,410335,000428,070441,589442,092458,029 China
148,200148,500148,167150,257147,188148,716 European Union
37,85037,72538,42738,82939,21539,422 Brazil
25,08324,60023,60022,94521,78221,239 Russia
13,87514,15013,96014,17013,93513,630 Canada
11,28011,09011,33311,27311,48710,187 Korea, South
11,05011,12510,70010,41010,22910,043 Mexico
9,0609,2429,1569,2809,3469,313 Japan
5,8486,1006,1506,2366,8167,240 Ukraine
2,9002,7252,8413,1563,1453,205 Belarus
nrnrnrnrnr2,272 Others
575,556600,257692,404708,145705,235723,296 Total Foreign
78,65877,33875,07073,14571,34569,019 United States
654,214677,595767,474781,290776,580792,315 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
450,000412,000440,000687,500705,000672,500 China
268,000270,000265,000267,000267,250266,000 European Union
52,41052,60051,39849,50045,70042,595 Russia
44,25044,00042,25040,95440,23039,635 Brazil
28,20028,90028,27228,01729,02628,812 Canada
20,27520,20019,65018,65018,10017,700 Mexico
19,20019,41519,88919,11818,19119,504 Korea, South
16,80017,03016,74016,69016,78516,900 Japan
8,4508,7508,7408,8138,7679,296 Ukraine
5,0004,7254,9005,0505,3255,200 Belarus
nrnrnrnrnr5,028 Others
912,585877,620896,8391,141,2921,154,3741,123,170 Total Foreign
141,669142,790139,993132,568129,429125,907 United States
1,054,2541,020,4101,036,8321,273,8601,283,8031,249,077 Total
Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. nr -
represents "no reporting" countries (data sets excluded beginning in 2017). From 2017, the following country is excluded:
Australia.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Swine Trade - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Imports
414138334220 Mexico
2525410138 China
2020223084 Ukraine
101013868 Russia
336333 Canada
333363 European Union
222369 Belarus
111110 Brazil
111111 Japan
111253 Korea, South
nrnrnrnrnr0 Others
10710791949159 Total Foreign
5,0004,9905,1005,2505,5975,657 United States
5,1075,0975,1915,3445,6885,716 Total
none
Total Exports
5,0005,0005,1165,2635,6145,672 Canada
6006009561,5671,5661,551 China
350375369509339288 European Union
1189852 Brazil
1021093327 Ukraine
356767 Russia
000025 Belarus
000000 Japan
000000 Korea, South
000070 Mexico
nrnrnrnrnr0 Others
5,9745,9906,4667,3637,5727,552 Total Foreign
556060645948 United States
6,0296,0506,5267,4277,6317,600 Total
Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. From 2017,
the following country is excluded: Australia.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Chicken Meat Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Production
15,50014,80013,75011,70011,60012,448 China
13,77513,91513,69013,35513,61213,523 Brazil
11,95012,60012,46012,26011,91211,560 European Union
4,6854,7604,6714,6844,6804,328 Russia
4,0004,9024,3504,0623,7673,464 India
3,6703,7253,6003,4853,4003,275 Mexico
2,9003,4903,3003,1702,9902,813 Thailand
2,1752,2152,1712,0682,1502,119 Argentina
2,0752,4002,1382,1572,1371,879 Turkey
1,7601,7901,7611,6951,6261,538 Colombia
17,50817,71417,20716,52015,91415,691 Others
79,99882,31179,09875,15673,78872,638 Total Foreign
20,51120,61519,94119,36118,93818,510 United States
100,509102,92699,03994,51792,72691,148 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
15,85015,12013,90211,59511,47512,492 China
11,18011,70011,63611,53711,28110,994 European Union
9,90310,1759,8659,6719,7689,637 Brazil
4,7404,7854,7244,7854,7854,449 Russia
4,5584,5884,4734,3014,1984,061 Mexico
3,9984,9004,3474,0593,7653,461 India
2,8202,8202,8012,7612,6882,587 Japan
2,0352,0662,0211,9551,9781,969 Argentina
2,0002,5002,4592,3542,2262,129 Thailand
1,8901,9901,8161,7011,6091,531 Philippines
22,21722,78922,38121,73521,14120,794 Others
81,19183,43380,42576,45474,91474,104 Total Foreign
17,29917,27116,70016,18415,82615,510 United States
98,490100,70497,12592,63890,74089,614 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year
was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Chicken Meat Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan
2020
Apr
none
Total Imports
1,0851,0951,0761,0741,056973 Japan
895865880820804791 Mexico
725750580342311430 China
680710724704692763 European Union
630465625579439422 United Arab Emirates
575635601629711878 Saudi Arabia
475500501527444563 Iraq
430480485521508504 South Africa
370390366321266244 Philippines
290360293215291344 Hong Kong
3,5203,6423,7993,6213,5283,264 Others
9,6759,8929,9309,3539,0509,176 Total Foreign
626261645961 United States
9,7379,9549,9919,4179,1099,237 Total
none
Total Exports
3,8753,7453,8303,6873,8473,889 Brazil
1,4501,6101,5481,4271,3231,329 European Union
810970881826757690 Thailand
400450409317263235 Ukraine
375430428447436386 China
360430408418357263 Turkey
185185172168150145 Belarus
170170164131125104 Russia
145158155124178158 Argentina
125125124124134134 Canada
497482501402336368 Others
8,3928,7558,6208,0717,9067,701 Total Foreign
3,3163,4043,2613,2453,1373,086 United States
11,70812,15911,88111,31611,04310,787 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2019, Yemen is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month
in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.
Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2018: Revisions are made based on new and/or additional information.
Commodity/Attribute Years Countries Cattle
Production 2012-2017 India Beef
Trade 2005-2017 All Countries Pork
Production 2005-2017 Angola, Chile, Congo (Kinshasa), Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Macedonia, Montenegro, Panama, Serbia, and Uruguay.
Trade 2005-2017 All Countries Chicken Meat
Production 2005-2017 Turkey, Guatemala, Jordan Trade 2005-2017 EU27+UK, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Qatar
Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of April 9, 2020 and assumes their continuation.
Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts. Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.
RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of further processing.
Notes to Readers
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
Conversion Rates and HS Codes
HS Code Description Conversion Rate020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79
HS Code Description Conversion Rate020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30
Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.
PORK
BEEF AND VEAL
PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
Additional Resources
• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 April 2020Global Market Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
Future Releases and Contact Information
Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases. Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is July 10, 2020.
Country/Commodities for January and July Releases Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat Angola x Argentina x Australia x Brazil x x x Canada x x x China x x x Cuba x EU x x x Hong Kong x x Iraq x Japan x x x Mexico x x x New Zealand x Philippines x x Saudi Arabia x South Africa x South Korea x x x Thailand x United States x x x
Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Swine and Pork Jake Vuillemin (202) 690-4476 [email protected] Cattle and Beef Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Chicken Meat
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 April 2020Global Market Analysis