the statistical reference for poultry executives · 2010 introduction: global poultry market...

The Statistical Reference for Poultry Executives

www.WATTAgNet.com

2010

NOW completely revised and updated, with more charts,

more sources, more forecasts and more analysis

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2010

Introduction: Global poultry market bounces back...................4 World poultry meat production by region World egg production trend

Poultry 2010: Where we are now .................................................6 Expectations for production of main meats in 2010 Grain price trend 2000-2010 US industry consolidation

Market horizons: Where are we going? .......................................8 Forecast changes in global meat demand Projected trends in meat consumption per person Poultry meat production change 2019 Poultry meat import projections

Trends in poultry meat production ........................................... 16 World poultry meat production by region Poultry meat production by species World slaughterings/production

Trade developments in poultry meat .......................................20 Poultry meat trade by world region Main exporters of poultry meat in 2009

Outlook for egg production .....................................................24 Top 20 countries for egg production World egg production by region World layer numbers by region Egg production by country

Egg trade: Strong sales of eggs to Asian markets ....................30

Demand: Economic changes shape buying power ...................34

Population: Where consumer numbers are growing fastest ..36 Population trend 1990-2050 Percentage change in human population by world region

More growth in sight for poultry meat uptake ........................42 Poultry meat consumption by world region Broiler meat consumption per person

How egg uptake is changing .....................................................44 Egg consumption by country

executive guide 20102


F irst estimates for the combined annual production of the world’s poultry industries in 2010 put the

total at about 95 million metric tons of meat and approximately 63 million metric tons of eggs.

The following pages of this latest WATT Executive Guide to World Poultry Trends look in detail at the numbers recorded so far, both for production and for consumption. You will fi nd data and trends relating to sectors, countries and world regions.

We bring you at-a-glance charts not only on these statistics, but also on how

leading analysts say the global poultry markets are likely to develop in the next fi ve to 10 years.

The primary source of the following datasets is the Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO – see its website www.fao.org)

How the main meats compareAs of the middle of 2010, FAO

reported that 281.5 million metric tons of all meats had been produced worldwide in 2009 and that poultry

meat accounted for about 92.3 million tons of this total. Poultry’s output compared with 103.6 million tons for pork and 64.7 million tons of beef.

Earlier fi gures from the same source offer an insight into the development of the world meat market over the past 10 years. According to FAO, the production of 230 million tons of all meat in 1999 was composed of about 65.2 million tons of poultry meat with 56.3 million tons of beef and 89.5 million tons of pork.

Meanwhile it seems that the world’s production of table eggs over this 10-year period grew from around 49.8 million tons to more than 62 million tons.

Therefore, the data suggest that the growth in poultry meat production from 1999 to 2009 approached 42% while the rates for pork and beef were under 16% and 15%, respectively.

As we shall see in more detail later, forecasts of world poultry meat production suggest that it could rise by 29% over the coming decade, averaging 2.4% of growth per year to reach almost 118 million tons, while the output of eggs could show nearly a 16.5% increase by 2015 to a new record of 71 million tons.

Recovery after recessionA more immediate concern in 2010

was that the year would see a recovery from the international economic downturn and its widespread negative effects on animal protein markets around the world. Global gross domestic product (GDP) was reckoned to have fallen by 2% in 2009, but prominent economists predicted a return to growth in 2010 with an increase of about 2.8%. The pace of the rebound was expected to be faster in the emerging markets of Asia than in the mature economies of Europe and North America.

The recessionary downturn in major poultry markets during 2009 was illustrated by a report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), showing that the 8.55 billion broilers marketed in the USA at a total live weight of 21.7 million metric tons had represented a 5% fall from 2008 levels and America’s turkey output had fallen by 10% to around 3.25 million tons.

By contrast, the annual output of eggs had risen from 90 million to 90.4 million. But as previous editions of this Executive Guide have pointed out, it is typical to fi nd a difference between developed-economy and developing-economy countries in terms of egg purchasing patterns when incomes change. Consumers in

INTRODUCTION TO THIS EXECUTIVE GUIDE

Global poultry market bounces back

World poultry meat production by region, 2000-2010

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To download this data, www.wattagnet.com/18371.html

5executive guide 2010

a developed economy tend to buy about the same quantities of eggs regardless of any recessionary pressure, whereas in a developing economy the demand for eggs soon reflects any improvement or deterioration in buying power.

The 6th edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook prepared jointly by FAO with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that a return to global economic growth will combine with a rising population to drive agricultural

production, consumption and trade during the period 2010 to 2019. It projected average annual rates of GDP growth by country to 2019 ranging from 8% for China and 6.6% for India to 4.5% for Brazil, 3% for Argentina, 2.5% for the USA and 2% for the European Union. Details can be viewed at www.agri-outlook.org.

The world’s human population was estimated at 6.12 billion in 2000, rising to 6.83 billion in 2009 and expected to reach 6.91 billion in 2010. From now until 2019

it is expected to rise at an average of 1.1% per year, compared with its 1.2% average annual growth rate in the previous decade.

But the big forecast is still the 9.2 billion that forecasters say will be the number of humans on the planet in the year 2050. Being able to feed this many mouths will need a 70% increase from current levels of world food production, said the OECD/FAO report, although the output from global agriculture remains on track to meet the extra demand.

World egg production trend

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The following pages of this Executive Guide lead you step by step through every part of the poultry market around the world, from production and trade to consumption and demand.

Each individual section presents a selection of data on key trends.

In addition, certain sections include a link directly to full data files about their particular topic that are accessible from our website.

The website also has the orginal datasets for many of the charts that appear in our reports, plus a series of other files of reference data on aspects of the global poultry market.

You can access these chart datasets and the additional files by going to www.WATTAgNet.com/18443.html

Whatever you want to know about trends in the poultry business around the world, therefore, the relevant data are at your fingertips in this edition of the Executive Guide and at the click of a mouse.

All the data you need ---- at your fingertips

©taridom I Dreamstime.com


M ost analysts agree that while the global economic recession starting in 2008 has had the

effect of depressing the market for all meats, the poultry meat sector appears to have been affected less severely than those of other animal proteins. There are even claims that chicken has benefitted from a switch in consumer buying habits away from the purchase of more expensive meats. Those marketing meat in the developed-economy regions such as North America and Europe have reported finding sales increases for smaller cuts and cheaper products at the expense of premium items.

Canada provides an example. The organization Turkey Farmers of Canada (TFC) has referred to a Statistics Canada report showing total Canadian per-capita meat consumption declining from 88 kilograms (kg) in 2008 to 87.4 kg in 2009, of which poultry meat represented 37.7 kg. The timing of this decrease was recognized as being linked to the recession that caused many consumers to cut back on food expenditures. Turkey meat consumption was also affected, down from 4.5 kg to 4.4 kg. However, a major part of the reduction was found to be due to

a lower consumption of further processed items rather than of whole birds or fresh cuts.

The further processed category mainly involves breast meat, according to TFC. As boneless,

skinless breast meat accounts for approximately 25% of the carcass weight of a turkey, a 1-kg drop in breast-meat sales is equivalent to a cutback in production of 4 kg live weight. In particular the sales drop has hit the demand for turkeys weighing more than 9 kg, since most of these enter the further processing stream. In Canada, the

use of turkeys over 9 kg declined by 7.8 million kilograms between 2008 and 2009.

Chicken outperforms other meatsChart 1 sets out how the U.S.

department of agriculture expected production of the main meats to develop in 2010 in major producing countries and regions, as presented by Nan-Dirk Mulder of Rabobank to the 2010 Alltech international symposium. The poultry industry was expected to outperform those of pork and beef, he commented, growing by 3% compared with a 1.6% annual increase for pork and a 0.7% drop for beef as the global meat market recovered from recession

The imponderables continue to be feed costs and the volatility of exchange rates. A recent analysis for the European Commission pointed out that approximately one-third of all grain harvested globally is used in feed for production animals. Its price is being influenced not only by climatic conditions and their effects on harvests, but also by the growing linkage between the prices of commodities such as grains and of oil. Additionally, producers must contend with rising costs for their energy inputs and for water.

As 2010 started, the global market seemed to be settling back to historically normal levels for price after the record peaks reached in 2008/09

(source: Bloomberg)

Chart 2: Grain price trend 2000-2010

US dolars per metric ton1,200

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Poultry 2010: Where we are now se

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Chart 1: Expectations for production of main meats in 2010

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(source: Mulder 2010)

(see Chart 2, from data compiled by Bloomberg). But the outlook for feed costs became unsettled again during the year when inclement weather reduced crop sizes in several of the largest producing countries.

Changes in industry structureA more positive aspect was that

various reports spoke of a surging demand for livestock products. They also explained that major changes were occurring in the structure of livestock and poultry production around the world. Expansion by the largest players and their increasing degree of vertical integration had widened the gap between them and the rest of the

industry in their operating area.

Even so, the poultry business in 2010 remains relatively fragmented. In a few exceptions such as the USA and Thailand the market share held by the three largest production companies is already in the range of 55-60%. In Brazil and Russia the Top-3 poultry producers reportedly share just over one-

quarter of the market nationally. However, in the European Union it is still under 15% and in China no more than 6%.

The latest annual survey of American broiler producing/processing companies conducted by WATTPoultryUSA has charted the trend to consolidation in the U.S. industry as in Chart 3. Its data for 2009 revealed that, out of the almost 33,000 metric tons ready-to-cook (RTC) of broiler meat produced per week, the three largest companies accounted for about 46.4% and the Top-10 combined share was nearly 74.7%. Its listing of the 10 largest for production in 2009 is shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1: Ten largest broiler producing companies in USA in 2009

Rank CompanyProduction

(x 1000 metric tons RTC)

1 Tyson Foods 66.37

2 Pilgrim’s Pride 61.42

3 Perdue Farms 24.52

4 Sanderson Farms 21.18

5 Wayne Farms 14.85

6 Mountaire Farms 14.30

7 Koch Foods 11.22

8 House of Raeford Farms 9.90

9 Keystone Foods 8.77

10 Foster Farms 8.63(source: adapted from WATTPoultryUSA 2010)

Chart 3: US Industry Consolidation 1980-2009

Source: WATT PoultryUSA. Note: 80-82 % based on slaughter; 83-09 % based on lbs. RTC.

Top 20 Cos. Top 10 Cos. Top 5 Cos. Top 3 Cos.

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C hicken is the meat of the future, say leading commentators. In a

presentation to packaging industry conference Packform 2010, Nan-Dirk Mulder of Rabobank International suggested that poultry will have overtaken pork by 2030 as the world’s most popular meat.

The accompanying Chart 1 shows his round-up of forecasts from various agencies on the markets for the main meats up to 2025, emphasising how much poultry meat is expected to gain. It is extracted from his presentation to the 2010 Alltech international symposium held in the USA. Richard Brown of GIRA presented Chart 2 to the 3rd Global Feed & Food Congress, in Mexico, toillustrate expectations of howmeat consumption by species in 2015 will compare with levels in 2005. Chart 3 tracing meat consumption per person/year over the period 1999 to 2019 is from projections in 2010 by U.S.-based food policy research institute FAPRI.

Market growthForecasts have different

horizons according to their source. The most widely quoted on livestock products internationally is the annual review of commodity market projections prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) and the food/agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAO). The sixth edition of this Agricultural Outlook series looks at prospects up to 2019. It predicts that the annual rate of market growth for all meats will ease slightly from 2.1% per year in the most recent decade to 1.9% in the period 2010-2019, but that

poultry meat will be the main benefi ciary.

The increases averaging 2.4% per year that it projects for the production and consumption of poultry meat compare with 1.7% projected for pork and 1.5% for beef. Consumption of poultry meat is expected to increase at an annual rate averaging 2.7% in developing-economy countries, but only 1.6% in those with a developed economy.

By this same OECD/FAO assessment, we should expect that world poultry meat consumption per person per year will increase by nearly 2 kilograms (kg) by 2019, from 13.5 kg to 15.3 kg, adding 26 million metric tons to the amount required annually. It says over 91 million metric tons of poultry meat per year were produced as an annual average in 2007-09 and by 2019 this looks likely to rise to almost 118 million metric tons. The details are set out in Table 1.

Areas of increaseAddressing a markets forum

at the 2010 International Poultry Expo in the USA, American economist Dr. Paul Aho speculated that world production of poultry meat and eggs could grow from a current level of slightly under 160

Market horizons: Where are we going? Fo

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(source: Rabobank, from reports by FAO, USDA, EC, OECD, FAPRI)

Chart 1: Forecast changes in global meat demand

Chart 2: Meat consumption by species, 2005/15

450,000,000400,000,000350,000,000300,000,000250,000,000200,000,000150,000,000100,000,00050,000,000

0

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1985 1995 2005 2008 2015 2025

2005 Poultry Pigmeat Beef Sheepmeat 2015

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(source: GIRA 2010)

259,780

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SheepmeatBeefPigmeatPoultry

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million metric tons per year to reach almost 300 million tons annually by 2050. Most of the increase, he added, will probably be in middle-income countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

To achieve such a rise would involve doubling the present output of chicken to around

150 million tons, with increases of 100% for turkey meat at 10 million tons and for eggs at 136 million tons.

However, the amount of poultry meat and eggs consumed worldwide is influenced not only by population size and incomes, but also by food prices as governed by the cost of grain used

in feeding the birds. Although the better feed conversion ratio achieved by poultry production means it is hit less hard than pork or beef when grains become more expensive, a crisis in the grain sector still could reduce the increases being projected for the uptake of chicken and turkey. Egg consumption tends to be much more resilient, however, making eggs the most sustainable of the animal proteins.

The latest series of long-term projections produced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) looks at the likely trend to 2019 and assumes a rebound in global economic growth after recession that will support good gains in world food demand and agricultural trade. But it also points out that stronger economic growth contributes to a continued slowing of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Its assumption is that the growth in the world’s human population during the period 2010-2019 will average only about 1.1% per year compared with rates averaging 1.7% per year in the 1980s and 1.4% annually in the 1990s.

Again, however, the developing countries provide a particular focus. The USDA analysts say they will generally will have higher population growth rates than in the rest of the world so that their share of world population increases from 78% in the 1980s and 80% in the 1990s to 84% by 2019.

European market researchers have examined the likely scenario for meat markets in Europe up to 2015. Their general conclusion is that the all-Europe production of poultry meat could grow by 8% in this time, with a 9% rise looking possible for consumption in the EU-27 member states.

Other forecasts have considered the outlook for the world trade in poultry meat up to 2019 and decided that these, too, should benefit from a return to better economies. They believe the total annual volume traded could increase by up to 25% from

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(source: FAPRI 2010)

Chart 3: Projected trend in meat consumption per person.

Poultry meat production change (%) in 2019 from 2007-2009 average

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Beef Pork Poultry

TABLE 1: Forecasts for world poultry meat to 20192005 2010 2015 2019

Production (million tons) 83.23 95.03 107.56 117.85

Exports (million tons) 8.54 10.27 11.79 13.17

Imports (million tons) 8.01 9.33 10.36 11.38

Consumption total (million tons) 82.69 94.05 106.13 116.05

Consumption per person (kilograms)

12.72 13.64 14.56 15.3

(source: OECD 2010)

(source: OECD/FAO)

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Prospects for global broiler trade by Mark Clements, Editor of Poultry International

The global broiler industry can look forward to a decade of growth, according to the latest report from the Food and

Agriculture Research Institute (FAPRI). Total broiler production over the period 2009-2019 will grow by 1.8% annually to reach 79.36 million metric tons while the international trade in broiler meat grows by 1.3% per year to reach 8.29 million tons.

World trade will be reduced in the short term by Russia’s imposition of a lower tariff related quota, says the FAPRI report. Among the main importing countries, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) makes it a net broiler importer. By 2019, China could be importing 418,000 metric tons per year. Taiwan, with its WTO accession, removed its quota and replaced this with a “tariff-only regime” in 2005. As a result, imports are projected to increase by 7.3% annually, reaching 116,000 tons/year by 2019. A shift to differentiated local breeds, however, will sustain domestic production, which is forecast to grow by 1.5% each year.

Imports by South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are also predicted to increase in response to overall economic expansion in these markets. However, Japan’s net imports of broiler meat are forecast to rise only by 0.2% per annum to 2019.

The EU moved in 2007 from being a net exporter to a net importer and is forecast to remain in that position. By 2019, EU net imports are expected to stand at 29,000 metric tons. Strong domestic demand in Mexico

is expected to drive up net imports by 2% annually, to reach 577,000 tons in 2019.

Exports are made predominantly by Brazil, the USA and Thailand. For the period 2005-2009, Brazil accounted for 49.9% of world exports. By 2014-2018, this is expected to have fallen to 44.8% as Brazil’s net

poultry exports are assumed to stay at around 3.4 million metric tons per year. Fiscal incentives and subsidies from local government continue to encourage large new investments in broiler production, FAPRI says.

The market share of broiler exports achieved by the USA should remain broadly stable over the coming years.

During the period 2005-2009, US exports accounted for 41.7% of the global total. This proportion is forecast to fall to 39.4% between 2009 and 2013, before returning to 41.7% in the 2014-2018 period.

After suffering a major drop in exports in 2004, Thailand’s broiler sector has taken six years to recover from the avian infl uenza crisis and return to pre-AI export levels. The expectation for 2019 is that Thailand’s net exports will have increased by 6.5% annually to reach 635,000 tons. Recovery is being helped by several factors including the expansion of integrated producers, improvements in productivity,

a reduced processing cost, investment in production innovation and a shift to higher-value cooked products. In the period 2005-2009, Thailand’s share of the global broiler export market stood at 4.8%. For 2009-2013, this is expected to reach 6.6%, climbing to 7.4% in 2014-2018.

Outlook to 2019 for world broiler production and trade

Outlook to 2019 for net imports by major broiler-meat importing countries

(source: FAPRI 2010)

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Production Net Trade

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China Japan Russia Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico

Projections for export market share (%) of major broiler-meat exporting countries

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executive guide 2010-2011 executive 13

the level recorded in 2010. Brazil is seen as a major beneficiary, possibly adding 35% to the amount it exports each year. From lower starting levels, increases of 46% are projected for China’s exports and of 59% for those from Thailand.

Chart 5 is from a USDA publication indicating how imports of poultry meat by several of the main importing countries may change in the coming years. The region comprising the countries of the Middle East and North Africa is already the largest in the world for annual imports of all meat. The forecasters suggest this dominance is set to grow even more by 2019, not least with regard to the importation of poultry meat.

Other N Afr. & M. EastEuropean Union 2/MexicoSaudi Arabia

China & Hong KongEast AsiaRussia

Chart 5: Trend in poultry meat imports with projections to 2019

(source: USDA 2010)1=selected importers, 2=excludes intra-EU-trade

8765432101990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Million metric tons

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14 executive guide 2010

Member states of the European Union have been estimated to produce 8.7 million metric tons of broiler meat on an RTC basis and almost 1.82 million tons of turkey meat in 2010. Eurostat data for the EU-27 members in 2009 showed their total poultry production in carcass weight terms as 11.65 million metric tons, with the largest producers being France (1.67 million tons), the UK (1.46 million tons), Spain (1.32 million tons) and Germany (1.28 million tons). The accompanying Chart shows how the U.S. Department of Agriculture has presented the Eurostat data.

FastFacts: EU poultry shares

Others 19%

Germany 12%

Italy 11%

UK 15%

France 17%

Spain 14%Poland 12%

Fears continue in Europe that its egg production will be non-competitive internationally because of higher costs forced by incoming welfare legislation.

Under the terms of Council Directive 1999/74/EC, conventional cages will be banned as housing for laying hens in European Union countries as from 1st January 2012. After that date the only cage systems permitted for EU layers will be of

enriched types providing more space per bird.

Some member states have introduced tougher laws. Sweden has not allowed conventional cages since 2003, Austria took the same action in 2009 and Germany and the Netherlands will allow only colony cages from 2012. Our accompanying Table shows data collected by Eurostat for the European Commission on the recent trend in housing systems for European laying hens. Marktinfo Eier & Gefl uegel in Germany has reported that 63% of German layers in 2009 were already housed in alternatives to conventional cages. Most cage systems in need of replacement to comply with the 2012 ban could be found in countries of southern and eastern Europe.TABLE: EU layers by housing type (%)

FastFacts: Housing for Europe’s layers

EU laying hens by housing type (%)

Cage Free-range Barn Organic

2006 77.3 9.3 11.5 1.9

2007 68.8 16.9 12.6 1.9

2008 67.8 16.9 13.0 2.2

2009 49.3 16.4 11.9 1.9


An analysis of the European egg market presented by Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst in 2010 explained that Europe was the only continent not showing an increase in egg production between 1990 and 2007.

Chart 1 from his report tracks how the regions of Europe differed in their development during these two decades. From 1992 to 2007, the members of the European Union increased their egg production by 341,000 metric tons, but the output volume from non-EU countries in Europe fell by 678,000 tons. As a result, in 2007 about 65% of the eggs produced in Europe came from the EU and 35% came from non-member countries.

In 1990, European countries provided one-third of global egg output. However, their combined share of the world total in 2007 was down to 16.7%.

The change is further emphasized by looking at the leading egg-producing countries in 1990 and 2007. The top three producers in 1990 were China, the former USSR and the USA, supplying 43% of all eggs, and three European countries were listed in the Top Ten. But in 2007, France was the only European country with a top-10 listing, and Asia now had three representatives on the list: China, India and Japan provided almost 46% of world production.

France went on to record a production of 947,000 metric tons of eggs in 2008. This fell to 943,000 tons in 2009 and was expected to stay at that level in 2010.

FastFacts: Europe’s egg sector profi led

Development of egg production in regions of Europe 1990 to 2007 source: Windhorst (2010) International Egg Commission



Trends in poultry meat production

World production of poultry meat grew only from about from 91.8 million metric tons in 2008 to

92.3 million tons in 2009, but the estimate for 2010 is 94.8 million tons. This level of output in 2010 would compare with roughly 106 million tons of pork and less than 65 million tons of beef.

The stagnation of poultry meat production in 2009 was the first instance of a slowdown seen for the sector in recent times. The recovery in 2010 was expected to be greater, but tended to be held back by concerns over feed costs around the middle of the year when the price of grain showed signs of a substantial increase.

See from Table 1 how regional volumes closely reflected the overall standstill in annual production comparing 2008 and 2009. The global increase of 2.5% from

2009 to 2010 appears again to be spread quite evenly between the regions.

Variations in growthEarly indications for countries with the

largest poultry meat sectors gave more variable growth rates, however. China and Brazil were considered to be on course for increases of around 4%, whereas expansion in the USA was put at 2% and

that for the EU-27 of Europe no more than about 0.5%.

China is expanding particularly to meet the larger domestic market arising from its economic growth. Brazilian expansion is being driven both by a strong demand for poultry meat at home and an increase in the volume exported.

Even more notable was the potential for a 10.5% rise attributed to Russia’s production of poultry meat in 2010, to fill the gap left by reduced imports and increasing domestic demand. Such growth would take the annual volume from Russian producers to 2.8 million metric tons, driven by economic growth that the World Bank predicted would work out at 4.5% for the annual rise in national GDP.

In fact, the Russian minister of agriculture spoke in 2010 of the possibility that Russia could become a substantial exporter of poultry meat by 2015, capable

of selling 400,000 tons per year to other countries. She forecast that national production by 2020 could reach as much as 6.2 million tons per year.

Market weight risesData from the USA illustrate how rising

poultry meat production in 2010 has often been due more to higher market weights for chickens and turkeys than to the number of birds sent to processing plants. For example, the 4.2 billion broilers handled by U.S. plants in the first six months of 2020 represented only a 0.1% increase year on year, but the average weight of the birds at slaughter was up 1.6% at 2.57 kilograms. Similarly with turkeys – although bird numbers were down by 4.5%, there was a 1.3% rise in the average weight per bird.

From a European perspective, the poultry meat market in 2010 had to take

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Table 1: World poultry meat production by regionmillion metric tons 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

Asia-Pacific 23.9 28.7 32.6 33.1 34.0

North America 17.5 20.3 21.4 20.6 20.9

Latin America 12.1 15.6 19.0 19.1 19.8

Europe 11.9 13.1 14.4 15.4 15.8

Africa 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7

World 68.8 83.2 91.8 91.9 94.2

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40

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01997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Millio

n metr

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Chicken meat Turkey meat Duck meat Goose meat + guinea-fwl

Chart 1: Poultry meat production by species

To download this data,ww.wattagnet.com/18385.html


Table 2: World slaughterings/production by regionSlaughterings of chickens (millions)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 40890 42264 43570 44900 46210 45737 47210 49613 51171 51563

AFRICA 2395 2553 2642 2647 2688 2724 2862 2977 2978 2992

AMERICAS 17006 17617 17894 18537 19644 18065 18937 196782 20159 19118

ASIA 14279 14655 15530 16433 16286 17109 17639 18634 19429 20142

EUROPE 6733 6955 6994 6765 7065 7277 7229 7761 8041 8740

OCEANIA 477 484 511 519 527 561 544 559 564 572

Chicken meat production (million tonnes)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 58.3 60.5 63.1 64.6 67.2 69.2 71.3 75.1 78.2 79.6

AFRICA 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6

AMERICAS 27.2 28.2 29.3 30.0 32.2 32.7 33.7 35.2 37.1 36.2

ASIA 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.5 20.5 21.6 22.5 23.6 24.5 25.4

EUROPE 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.8 11.7 12.0 13.4

OCEANIA 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Slaughterings of turkeys (millions)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 681 680 686 656 654 641 641 671 669

AFRICA 16 16 15 16 19 19 20 22 24

AMERICAS 354 347 355 354 347 350 362 389 390

ASIA 31 29 28 26 28 27 29 29 25

EUROPE 273 284 285 256 256 241 223 220 219

OCEANIA 7 4 3 4 4 4 7 11 11

Turkey meat production (000 tonnes)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 5066 5231 5405 5121 5844 5824 5864 6065 6107

AFRICA 72 73 68 72 84 93 98 115 128

AMERICAS 2831 2932 3016 3009 3635 3725 3864 4115 4155

ASIA 167 155 152 139 146 143 143 142 126

EUROPE 1970 2057 2157 1885 1965 1850 1736 1655 1660

OCEANIA 26 14 12 16 14 13 23 38 38

Slaughterings of ducks (millions)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 2056 2056 2173 2308 2355 2644 2655 2715

AFRICA 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

AMERICAS 46 50 46 46 48 50 50 50

ASIA 1819 1811 1923 2058 2113 2396 2416 2474

EUROPE 161 165 175 174 165 169 159 162

OCEANIA 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6

Duck meat production (000 tonnes)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 2868 2961 2933 2996 3068 3308 3330 3542 3707 3845

AFRICA 57 56 57 57 57 57 57 58 57

AMERICAS 96 105 97 95 124 130 131 129 130


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Table 2: World slaughterings/production by region2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ASIA 2316 2394 2327 2405 2494 2713 2744 2936 3122

EUROPE 404 414 462 452 425 439 426 456 459

OCEANIA 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12

Slaughterings of geese and guinea fowl (000)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 491019 496572 516427 535209 559005 629331 634404 648639 600268

AFRICA 14494 14397 14397 14397 14398 14398 14348 14349 14350

AMERICAS 550 559 569 589 592 597 606 616 626

ASIA 443180 443869 431515 446795 454937 489722 490893 528305 564805

EUROPE 20269 18464 19987 21482 30750 28758 20707 20706 20457

OCEANIA 25 25 28 28 30 30 30 30 30

Goose meat and guinea fowl production (tonnes)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WORLD 1911012 1905542 1860406 1930276 1978335 2104892 2090023 2238551 2381505 2475604

AFRICA 55566 55336 55336 55336 55340 55340 55630 56150 55152 55152

AMERICAS 1797 1814 1839 1885 1891 1901 1917 1934 1956 1956

ASIA 1766560 1768956 1717540 1778696 1812229 1948533 1954439 2103623 2249631 2342631

EUROPE 86989 79336 85578 94247 108755 98998 77917 76723 74645 75744

OCEANIA 100 100 112 112 120 120 120 120 120 120

Source: FAO


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account of the mid-year implementation of an EU-27 broiler welfare directive (coded 2007/43/EC) specifying that the stocking density of housing for meat chickens could not exceed 33 kilograms per square meter unless under special circumstances – in

which case the limit could increase to a maximum of 39 kg/m2. Revised standards for the marketing of poultry in EU countries were also introduced.

First signs for the EU-27 in 2010 were that member states would produce about

8.7 million metric tons of broiler meat while exporting 770,000 tons and importing 720,000 tons. Its turkey meat production was put at only slightly under the 2009 total of 1.82 million tons, with exports at 105,000 tons and imports at 120,000 tons.

Chart 2: EU poultry meat production 2007-09 and forecast 2010

2007

2008

2009

2010

1750

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500

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UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

PreliminaryEU-0.5%

BG-2.2%

DE-0.3%

UK-2.2%

FR-1.2%

ES-1.7%

20

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Chart 1: Main exporters of poultry meat in 2009

I n the international poultry meat trade the main talking point at the end of 2009 came

when the Russian government decided to reduce its quota on poultry meat imports by almost half from 2010, with a view to promoting national production in order to achieve self-suffi ciency by 2015.

In 2009 the quota on imports into Russia had been set at 952,000 metric tons. Actual imports were around 913,000 tons. Early estimates for 2010 were that this amount would fall to no more than 850,000 tons.

According to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, the

trade in poultry meat between countries had already come to a virtual halt in 2009 after

expanding at double-digit levels in the previous decade. The same source suggested that total imports of broiler meat in 2009 reached 7.61 million metric tons ready-to-cook (RTC) weight, down from 7.79 million tons in 2008, although a modest revival to 7.71 million tons was expected for 2010.

Its account of the trade data for turkey meat showed imports totaling 400,000 metric tons in 2009 compared with 486,000 tons in 2008, although again a recovery to 429,000 tons in 2010 was proposed.

On USDA fi gures the largest individual importers of broiler meat are Russia, Europe’s EU-27 community, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. The highest annual import volumes for turkey meat are registered by Mexico, the EU-27, Russia, South Africa and China.

Brazil leads the way in net exports of both types of poultry meat (see Chart 1), selling 3.2 million metric tons of broiler meat and 163,000 tons of turkey to other countries in 2009.

Table 1 records the regional poultry meat imports and exports in 2009 and each region’s average annual volume in the period 2007-2009, as calculated for a OECD/FAO report. Despite the near standstill in trade described for 2009, therefore, the three-year world average still represents a growth rate of 4 to 5% since 2000.

Poultry meat exports by the USA grew at a rate of 3% in this time, to a 2007-09 average of 3.24 million metric tons. U.S. exports of broiler meat in fact declined by 2% in 2009 as Russian quotas limited access to the country’s market and continued trade restrictions threatened a

Trade developments in poultry meatM

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Chart 2: Meat imports into Middle East/North Africa 1998-2009 and 2010 forecast

(sou

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15% reduction in volumes in 2010. Turkey meat exports from the USA were said to have contrasting prospects, however, being on course for a 2% annual increase from the 235,000 metric tons exported by the USA in 2009.

As Chart 1 shows, the USA and Brazil together represented about 68% of all exports of poultry meat in 2009.

Commentators in 2010 said that the consumption and imports of broiler meat were likely to be stimulated by the global economic recovery. Although Russia, the

EU-27 and Japan would remain the largest markets for broiler meat imports, their share of global trade was forecast to continue to stagnate or erode. By contrast, the expectation was for larger imports into non-traditional developing markets in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

These markets are slowly accounting for a greater portion of world trade, the commentary continued. Their level of demand is being spurred by population growth, rising incomes and budding meat consumption. Poultry performs

particularly well in these markets as it is a relatively low-cost form of animal protein that is versatile and has no religious taboos attached to its consumption.

In a presentation to the 3 Global Feed and Food Congress, Richard Brown of GIRA used accompanying Chart 2 as a reminder that the Middle East-North Africa region is already the world’s largest for total meat imports and its poultry meat import requirement in 2010 could be as high as 2.3 million metric tons, approximately one-fifth of the world total.

TABLE Poultry meat trade by world regionImports (x 1000 metric tons) Exports (x 1000 metric tons)

Average Growth (%) Average Growth (%)

2009 2007-2009 2000-2009 2009 2007-2009 2000-2009

World 11,051 9,635 4.31 10,132 4.62

North America 299 274 7.26 3,420 3.16

Europe 2,246 2,384 3.26 915 -1.80

Africa 1,065 621 8.44 47 6.28

Latin America and Caribbean 1,680 1,378 9.43 3,799 14.31

Asia and Pacific 5,761 4,140 3.72 1,899 -0.96

3400

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

606748 771 891

1059 1126

1282 1159 1487

1744

2197 2343

797

292 299 251 266 296 278 318275 314 348 322 326

285

607 656 689 570 663 756 811 999 1028 925 978 993500

Poultry Sheepmeat Beef


In most years the industrial manufacture of feeds for poultry represents between 40 and 45% of total compound feed production worldwide. Estimates compiled by Feed International for the size of the world feed sector in 2009 indicated that some 708 million metric tons for all species had been produced by commercial mills and that 41% of this was for feeding to poultry.

This proportion again made poultry the largest single segment of compound feed production on a global basis. Feeds for pigs accounted for about 30% and those for ruminants approximately 25%. The fastest-growing part of world feed manufacturing involves products for feeding in aquaculture, but this so-called aquafeeds category remains relatively small so far at only 4%.

Within the category of poultry feeds, the output tends to be divided almost equally between products for feeding to meat birds and diets for egg layers. By one recent account, the global production of layer feeds has now reached 160.

FastFacts: The market for poultry feeds

Improvements in China’s infrastructure since the mid-1980s have facilitated the intensification of the Chinese poultry sector.

In 1985, production was dominated by more than 150 million small-scale poultry farmers. But the subsequent rapid increase in intensification with a trend towards fewer, larger, privately owned operations meant that, between 1985 and 2005, the proportion of farming households that kept poultry fell from 44% to less than 14%.

Some 70 million small-scale farmers left the sector between 1996 and 2005, mostly in the more economically developed east of the country and around major cities. Over the same period, larger operations expanded their share of production from about one-quarter to one-half. Although more than 34 million rural households still kept backyard poultry, these were especially in the less-developed western part of the country.

Today, the commercial broiler market is dominated by large, integrated companies that control the entire production and marketing chain. In Fujian Province, for example, one integrator produces 50 million broilers a year and employs 4,000 people – one job for every 12,500 birds produced annually.

Extrapolating this ratio to the national level suggests that the integrated broiler sector provides around 800,000 jobs, said an FAO report citing Bingsheng and Yijun, 2008.

FastFacts: Transition in China

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I n 2009, an estimated 62.1 million metric tons of eggs were produced worldwide from a total laying fl ock

of approximately 6.4 billion hens. These numbers compare with 51.2 million tons of eggs from 5 billion layers in 2000.

See in accompanying Table 1 how the size and relative ranking of the top hen-egg producing countries has changed since 1990 and 2000. China again led the way with 26.6 million metric tons of eggs produced in 2009, alongside early indications that the Chinese egg output in 2010 was likely to rise further to about 27.1 million tons.

As China is the world’s largest egg producer and its annual tonnage is over four times that of the next-largest country (USA), it is no surprise that Asia has the biggest regional production. The region

holds around 64% of all laying hens. Chart 1, from FAO report Livestock in the balance, underlines how the territory of east and southeast Asia has far outstripped other regions for the growth of its egg output since the early 1980s.

Asian analysisIn an analysis of the Asian egg market

for the International Egg Commission in 2010, Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst of the University of Vechta in Germany

explained that the increase of 159% in Asian egg production between 1990 and 2008 owed much to the addition of 16.5 million metric tons to the volume produced by eastern Asia. The rise for this part of the region in that period exceeded 173%.

The eastern Asian sub-region contains two out of the three Asian countries (China, Japan and India) that contributed 46.1% of global egg production in 2008, said Windhorst, with China alone supplying 37.5%. India is included in the subset of

southern Asia countries that showed the highest percentage rise in output over the 1990-2008 period, at nearly 224%. During this time, India’s egg production increased by 1.6 million metric tons per year.

According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, egg production in China dropped by 1.5% between 2008 and 2009. Excess supplies combined with lower domestic consumption pushed down prices so that laying fl ocks were often culled or downsized. Also contributing to the cutback were outbreaks of avian leukosis virus J-ALV, which pushed some smaller backyard operators out of the egg business. The probable return to a near-1.9% increase for China’s egg sector in 2010 (see Chart 2) was attributed to the demand effects domestically from a strengthening world economy, but also to increased Chinese exports of eggs.

U.S. rate of layEgg production in the USA in 2009

reached 90.4 billion, only slightly more than the 90 billion produced in 2008. A survey by Egg Industry reported a 1% annual increase in output from fl ocks monitored in 2009, to 77.6 billion eggs, from fl ock levels averaging 280.4 million hens. The average U.S. fl ock achieved a rate of lay of 75.8 eggs per 100 layers, up from 75% in 2008.

This survey also identifi ed 10 U.S.-

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Table 1: Top 15 countries for egg production (x 1000 metric tons) (x 1000 tons)1990 2000 2009

China 6561 China 18912 China 23871

USSR 4582 USA 4998 USA 5340

USA 4034 Japan 2535 India 3100

Japan 2419 India 2015 Japan 2505

Brazil 1230 Russia 1895 Mexico 2334

India 1161 Mexico 1788 Russia 2195

Mexico 1010 Brazil 1509 Indonesia 1059

Germany 985 France 1038 France 918

France 887 Germany 901 Ukraine 911

Spain 667 Turkey 810 Turkey 865

Italy 656 Italy 686 Spain 804

Netherlands 652 Netherlands 668 Iran 775

UK 622 Spain 658 Italy 729

Thailand 449 Indonesia 642 Germany 689

Poland 422 Iran 579 Netherlands 619

Chart 1: Development of egg production by world region over fi ve decades

source: FAO ‘Livestock in the balance’, 2009

35302520151050

Million tonnes

East and Southeast AsiaLatin America and the CaribbeanNear East and North Africa

South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa



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based companies with 7 million or more laying hens in 2009. Between them they accounted for 132.3 million layers or about 47% of the national fl ock.

European Union egg production in 2009 was measured at 6.93 million metric tons, down from the 7.09 million tons recorded in 2008. First signs for 2010 were that the EU’s output would rebound only to 6.98 million tons. Chart 3 shows a preliminary view from the European Commission that a 2.3% increase was possible in 2010 and was expected to come mainly from extra volumes in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands.

In terms of the world total of laying hens, Table 2 from FAO data indicates 7.5% to be in Africa, slightly under 16% in the Americas, just over 64% in Asia-Pacifi c countries and about 12.5% in Europe.

Chart 3: EU egg production 2007-10

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE uk

2007 2008 2009 2010

1000

T

800

600

400

200

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PreliminaryEU-+2.3%

DE+6.4%

IT+5.9%

HU+7.9%

NL+3.8%

TABLE 2: World layer numbers by region (x 1000 birds)Number of laying hens (x 1000 birds)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

World 4818650 5008927 5111126 5292435 5385506 5533398 5710950 5916572 6048616 6234462 6308559

Africa 385148 380388 395317 416110 421783 433373 436526 453392 472378 481428 479206

Americas 830686 856271 885106 898591 900052 913720 930714 982452 972003 992570 993394

Asia 2892736 3067446 3124562 3274837 3310642 3438778 3568591 3701686 3835080 3993692 4058722

Europe 690317 686835 686029 684038 734285 728889 755576 757147 747908 746380 758097

Oceania 19763 17986 20112 18859 18744 18637 19543 21895 21247 20391 19140

Source: FAO

Chart 2: China’s recent trend in egg production

Source: China National Statistics Bureau (2010=forecast)

27,00026,50026,00025,50025,00024,50024,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

Thou

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Egg production by country x 1000 metric tons

2007 2008 2009

China 25846 22749 23871

USA 5308 5339 5340

India 2670 3060 3100

Japan 2525 2554 2505

Mexico 2300 2337 2334

Russian Fed 2093 2119 2195

Indonesia 1095 1123 1059

France 765 947 918

Ukraine 780 855 911

Turkey 744 824 865

Spain 884 800 804

Iran 880 727 775

Italy 670 724 729

Germany 800 790 689

Netherlands 610 627 619

Poland 538 582 605

United Kingdom 590 600 601

Thailand 532 582 588

Korea Rep 545 566 564

Philippines 530 550 555

Nigeria 553 553 552

Pakistan 452 503 529

Argentina 480 480 480

Malaysia 465 465 466

South Africa 385 473 450

Canada 392 419 422

Viet Nam 225 247 309

Romania 321 334 297

Egypt 240 295 290

Peru 205 267 269

Morocco 168 244 244

Colombia 500 542 239

Myanmar 212 231 234

Brazil 1690 184 193

Belarus 179 184 190

Algeria 170 184 185

Kazakhstan 148 166 184

Saudi Arabia 174 171 172

Belgium 224 175 168

Syria 170 151 162

Australia 166 160 159

Venezuela 160 158 158

Hungary 164 160 156

Bangladesh 135 186 154

Uzbekistan 138 133 149


2007 2008 2009

Chile 125 140 144

Korea DP Rep 142 142 140

Portugal 119 124 123

Paraguay 100 120 121

Cuba 105 102 107

Israel 95 96 101

Greece 100 102 100

Czech Republic 87 99 98

Sweden 102 95 95

Austria 90 96 92

Tunisia 82 89 90

Bulgaria 99 94 89

Dominican Rep 80 86 87

Ecuador 78 88 87

Guatemala 85 85 85

Denmark 78 81 74

Azerbaijan Rep 52 61 72

Slovakia 70 71 71

Kenya 53 69 70

Bolivia 59 65 69

Sri Lanka 52 59 65

El Salvador 70 66 64

Libya 60 60 60

Norway 51 56 58

Uruguay 43 58 58

Yemen 52 56 57

Finland 57 58 54

Iraq 50 55 54

Costa Rica 49 52 52

Serbia 73 60 52

Honduras 41 50 51

Burkina Faso 48 49 49

Croatia 48 47 48

Lithuania 53 55 48

New Zealand 52 47 48

Sudan 47 47 47

Zambia 47 47 47

Jordan 45 51 46

Latvia 39 40 46

Lebanon 47 46 46

Switzerland 39 39 41

Palestine Occ Tr 39 39 39

Ethiopia 38 38 37

Senegal 32 36 37

Armenia 30 32 35


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2007 2008 2009

Tanzania Rep 35 35 35

Turkmenistan 34 34 35

Ireland 33 34 34

Côte d’Ivoire 35 30 31

Nepal 27 31 31

Albania 27 30 30

Panama 21 28 28

Zimbabwe 22 28 28

Ghana 26 26 26

Georgia 16 24 25

Bosnia/Herzg 16 26 24

Kuwait 22 22 23

Guinea 21 22 22

Nicaragua 22 22 22

Slovenia 17 19 22

Kyrgyzstan 21 21 21

Malawi 20 20 21

Singapore 21 20 20

Uganda 21 17 18

United Arab Emirates 17 17 17

Afghanistan 18 17 16

Nauru 16 16 16

Laos 13 15 15

Macedonia 18 15 15

Madagascar 15 15 15

Benin 11 14 14

Cameroon 13 14 14

Mozambique 14 14 14

Cambodia 13 13 13

Niue 12 12 12

Puerto Rico 12 12 12

Estonia 11 9 11

Mali 11 11 11

Cyprus 10 10 10

Mauritius 9 11 10

Oman 9 9 9

Sierra Leone 8 9 9

Togo 8 9 9

Niger 11 8 8

Tajikistan 6 8 8

Brunei Darussalam 7 7 7

Congo Dem Rep 6 7 7

Jamaica 7 7 7


2007 2008 2009

Malta 7 8 7

Réunion 6 6 6

Botswana 3 5 5

Fiji Islands 4 3 5

Liberia 5 5 5

Mauritania 5 5 5

Papua N Guinea 5 5 5

Angola 4 4 4

Chad 5 4 4

Haiti 5 4 4

Qatar 4 4 4

Trinidad/Tobago 4 4 4

Bahrain 3 3 3

Iceland 3 3 3

Namibia 2 3 3

Rwanda 2 3 3

Somalia 3 3 3

Barbados 2 2 2

Belize 3 2 2

Burundi 3 2 2

Cape Verde 2 2 2

Central Afr Rep 2 2 2

Eritrea 2 2 2

French Polynesia 2 2 2

Gabon 2 2 2

Guadeloupe 2 2 2

Lesotho 2 2 2

Martinique 2 2 2

New Caledonia 2 2 2

Suriname 3 1 2

Bahamas 1 1 1

Comoros 1 1 1

Congo Rep 1 1 1

Gambia 1 1 1

Grenada 1 1 1

Guinea-Bissau 1 1 1

Guyana 1 1 1

Luxembourg 1 1 1

Saint Lucia 1 1 1

Seychelles 2 1 1

Swaziland 1 1 1

Timor-Leste 2 1 1

Guam 0.8 0.8 0.7


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2007 2008 2009

Saint Vincent/Gren 0.7 0.7 0.6

French Guiana 0.5 0.5 0.5

Netherlands Antilles 0.5 0.5 0.5

Sao Tome and Prn 0.4 0.5 0.5

Solomon Islands 0.5 0.5 0.5

Samoa 0.3 0.4 0.4

Vanuatu 0.4 0.4 0.4

Antigua/Barbuda 0.3 0.3 0.3

Bermuda 0.3 0.3 0.3

Kiribati 0.3 0.3 0.3

Mongolia 0.5 0.5 0.3

Bhutan 0.2 0.2 0.2

Dominica 0.2 0.2 0.2

Equatorial Guinea 0.2 0.2 0.2

Micronesia 0.2 0.2 0.2

Saint Kitts/Nevis 0.2 0.2 0.2

US Virgin Islands 0.2 0.2 0.2

American Samoa 0.1 0.1 0.1


2007 2008 2009

Cayman Isl 0.1 0.1 0.1

Montserrat 0.1 0.1 0.1

Saint Pierre/Miquelon 0.1 0.1 0.1

Wallis/Futuna Is 0.1 0.1 0.1

Moldova Rep 39

Montenegro Rep 2

Source: FAO


O nly a small percentage of the table eggs produced globally are traded between countries; over one-tenth of world poultry meat production is exported, but with eggs the

proportion stays at less than 2%. Trade in shell eggs is mainly within their region of origin, as they are difficult to transport.

About two-thirds of global egg trading involves European countries. Members of the EU-27 supply about one-third of all egg exports. Compared with 2.5 billion in 2008, the USA’s export sales in 2009 rose to 2.9 billion. Shell egg and egg product exports from the Netherlands in 2009 rose 2% to the equivalent of 9.2 billion eggs.

Significant increaseApproximately three-quarters of the eggs exported worldwide

go to countries in Asia, especially Japan. Traders described their exports of eggs rising significantly in the second half of 2009 and continuing this trend in 2010, driven principally by sales to Asian countries including China, Japan and Korea. Shipments to European Union member states such as Germany were also strong.

Trade in eggs among member states of the EU-27 primarily means imports by Germany, France and the UK. Most supplies for this trade come

from the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Data published by ZMP of Germany in 2008 on the volume of

liquid and dried egg products traded by EU countries have been

cited by Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst in a review presented to the International Egg Commission. These data showed that sales to non-EU countries represented only about 10% of exports of egg products by the European Union. The Netherlands was the principal supplier of the egg products exported, accounting for over 40% of the total.

Chart 1: Breakdown of US egg and egg-product imports in 2009 by type

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Top 20 countries for egg trade volumes

EXPORT IMPORT

Netherlands Germany

USA France

China Netherlands

Spain UK

Germany China

France Belgium

India Denmark

Poland Switzerland

Belgium Japan

Malaysia Austria

Turkey UAE

Saudi Arabia Czech Republic

Brazil Italy

Italy Canada

Belarus Kuwait

Slovakia Spain

Thailand Russian Federation

Egg Albumin, Other than dried 68%

*Albuminates & othe albumin derivativesSource: USDA/FAS

Hong Kong 41%

Rest of world 30%

Canada 29%

Bird eggs, not dried 23%

Egg Albumins Nes* 7%

Egg yolks 1.5% Dried egg albumen 0.5%

Chart 2: Destination of US shell egg exports in 2009



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Presenting his view of new perspectives on global developments in eggs at a seminar held during the 2010 VIV Europe show in the Netherlands, Albert

Vernooij of Rabobank International projected an increase in the trade in eggs between countries.

Only 2.5% of the eggs produced each year are traded internationally

at present. Some 72% of the country-to-country trade currently involves shell eggs, with just 14% shares each for powdered eggs and liquid egg products. However, the growing importance of a modern food industry in Asia is expected to have a signifi cant impact on the egg products industry, initially through more trade and later through more processing done at Asian plants.

Over the next two decades we are likely to see a 45% increase in the worldwide demand for eggs, Mr. Vernooij declared. Shorter-term, the probable rises in demand from 2008 to 2015 have been assessed to average 2.2% per year for table eggs and as much as 4.8% annually for egg products.

The story of the global growth in egg uptake has already been remarkable, from no more than 20 million metric tons per year in the 1960s and 1970s to around 40 million tons by the 1990s, and reaching about 60 million tons in 2010.

Asia, South America and Africa will lead the next phase of growth in demand, said Mr. Vernooij. The potential is shown by the fact that although the world average uptake today is around 100 eggs per person per year, the range stretches from a high of 300 eggs per person in places such as Japan and Denmark to lows near zero in parts of Africa.

Also, expect Asia and South America to provide several notable locations for rising egg production. Indonesia’s output of eggs is forecast to grow by 4.7%

Markets in the news: A positive outlook for eggs

annually in the period 2008-2015, while India and Brazil have been predicted to record averages of 4.4% per year. For Mexico the projected rate of annual increase is put at 3.7%, ahead of 3.2% for Thailand and 2.9% for China.

Geographic differences for China’s production of poultry meat and eggs have been demonstrated by an analysis of data from the China Animal Agriculture Association (CAAA).

For example, broiler production is spread more widely geographically among the Chinese provinces than is true for eggs. Whereas just four provinces account for over 50% of all egg output, the combined production of six provinces is needed to provide over half of the chicken produced nationally.

The top provinces for eggs in terms of national market share are Hebei (approximately 15%), Henan (14%), Shandong (13.5%) and Liaoning (9.5%). Smaller shares are held by Jiangsu (almost 6.5%), Sichuan (5.25%), Anhui (around 4%), Heilongjiang (3.5%), Hunan and Jilin (both near 3%). The main provincial producers of poultry meat in China are Shandong (14.5%) and Guangdong (9.5%), some way ahead of Guangxi and Jiangsu (both around 7.5%) and Liaoning (close to 7.25%). They are followed by Anhui and Henan (both 6%), Sichuan (5.25%), Hebei (5%) and Jilin (4%).


T wo charts reproduced here tell an important story in relation to the prospects of the global poultry market.

One matches income to meat purchasing, the other demonstrates the rise in disposable incomes that is already occurring in the largest countries.

Chart 1, from a presentation in 2010 by Dr. Paul Aho and based on FAO and World Bank data, shows how closely the size of the world market for chicken has stayed in step with the strength or weakness of the global economy over the last 10 years.

Chart 2 is from the China Animal Agriculture Association, illustrating that 30 years of population growth in China was joined by a signifi cant rise in personal incomes as more people moved from the countryside into towns and cities.

Higher rates of urbanization are developing quickly in many countries and are having a profound effect on buying power. Their impact was modifi ed in 2008-09 by economic recession internationally, as expressed by negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is used most widely to measure the economic activity of countries, regions or the world as a whole.

Recovery in GDPGlobal GDP (which is calculated by valuing

goods and services produced during a specifi ed period of time) fell by 1.9% in 2009. However, economists at the international agencies projected a recovery starting in 2010 that would restore the annual rate of growth to around 3.3% by 2011.

The recovery would mean more buying power, which in turn translates into a stronger world meat market for two reasons. One is the habit of people in the richer countries of increasing their purchases of meat in total and of more expensive cuts of meat in particular. The other is the fact that income improvement in the developing countries brings more people to the point where they can afford to eat meat.

Chart 3, from IMF, also follows the progression of annual GDP changes over a period of fi ve years. But it makes the point that the developed-economy nations of the world were affected more deeply than countries classifi ed as emerging or developing. Even within this latter category there have been major differences in GDP change over time from one region or country to another, as Chart 4 shows. Although it might seem to suggest that regional economies will develop

Chart 1: World GDP growth rate and percent annual change in global chicken meat

Chart 2: China’s increase in population and income

Chart 3: Global growth of GDP

Economic changes shape buying powerse

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even

Dem

an

d

76543210

-1-2

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

121086420-2-4-6-8-10

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

2006 07 08 09 10 11

Per c

apita

inco

me

(Yea

r)

Popu

latio

n (x

10,

0000

)

FAO and World Bank, Source Aho 2010

Chicken growth Economic growth

Urban area Rural area Population

Emerging and developing economies

Advanced economies

Source IMF 2010

World


more in unison over the coming decade, Chart5 from Australian agricultural economics bureau ABARE indicates a wider separation of patterns between regions.

More in AsiaWithout a doubt it was Asia that made

the strongest recovery from recession in terms of its regional GDP in 2010. Both domestic demand within Asian countries and sustained exports contributed to this resilience. For 2011 the rate of growth of Asia’s GDP has been forecast to come in the range of 6.5-7.0%. China might even

manage 9.5%, the forecasters added, and India could achieve 8.5%. An Indian report said that poultry production in India

could look forward to expanding due to the demand surge created by higher incomes and associated changes in eating habits. An expansion of 40% or more appeared possible by 2015.

In projecting an average GDP rise of 3.3% per year to 2019, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture also pointed to the contribution likely from a number of other developing-economy countries and those of eastern Europe. Strong growth in emerging-market economies was already contributing signifi cantly to the start of the global recovery seen in 2010, said OECD.

With the better demand from higher incomes should come an increase in the price of foods. Although less for chicken than for other meats, FAO identifi ed a general strengthening of international meat prices from 2009 into 2010 and projected relatively fi rm price levels for poultry meat in the next 10 years.

Chart 4: Economic growth in developing territories

Chart 5: Regional economic growth

8642

%-2-4-6-8

-10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OECD non-OECD Asia Latin America Russian Federation, WorldUkraine,

Eastern Europe

Source: ABARE Australia 2010

PercentDeveloping Asia

Africa Latin America

Former Soviet Untion

2009 2010f 2011f 2010-15 z

An analysis of the European egg market presented to the International Egg Commission’s Paris conference in 2010 by Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst explained that Europe was the only continent not showing an increase in egg production between 1990 and 2007. From 1992 to 2007, the members of the European Union increased their egg production by 341,000 metric tons, but the output volume from non-EU countries in Europe fell by 678,000 tons. The result of those changes was that, in 2007, about 65% of the eggs produced in Europe came from the EU and 35% came from non-member countries.

The high regional concentration of egg production in non-EU countries was also noted, Russia and the Ukraine sharing 85.6% of the overall production in 2007.

EU egg production was much less concentrated — 10 countries accounted for 84.6% of the total volume.

In 1990, European countries provided almost one-third of global egg output. However, their combined share of the world total in 2007 was down to 16.7%. A look at the leading egg-producing countries in 1990 and 2007 shows that the top three producers in 1990 were China, the former USSR and the USA; three European countries were listed in the Top Ten. But in 2007, France was the only European country with a top-10 listing, whereas Asia now had three representatives on the list in the shape of China, India and Japan — and they provided almost 46% of world production.

Still Europe’s biggest egg producer, France recorded a production of 947,000 metric tons of eggs in 2008. This fell to 943,000 tons in 2009 and was expected to stay at that level in 2010.

FastFacts: Europe’s egg sector profi led



Chart 1: Population trend 1990-2050

For the worldwide poultry market today and tomorrow, the factor with the greatest single infl uence

on demand and potential growth is the number of consumers. Therefore this WATT Executive Guide to World Poultry Trends includes a summary of the data and forecasts available from international agencies relating to the size of the human population, both globally and regionally.

Approximately 60% of the 6,906,588,000 people estimated to occupy this planet in 2010 live in the Asia-Pacifi c territory. Africa has 15%, Europe 11%, Latin America 9% and North America 5%.

These percentages are worth noting in the context of an analysis by the

United Nations of prospects for world population growth. As reviewed in a recent OECD publication, the rates of change expected for the global regions differ quite markedly. They also suggest

(Table 1) a relative slowing of the growth rate for all of the regional human populations in the coming two decades.

Insights of AsiaAmong the largest of the individual

countries, in China the rate of increase is expected to slow from 0.67% per year in 2000-2009 to 0.57% in 2010-2019 and a reduction also is projected for India, from 1.54% to 1.20%. Nevertheless, as another OECD review confi rms (Table 2), the population of China is forecast to exceed

that of India only until about 2020. The forecasters say these roles will be reversed by 2050, with India becoming the biggest at 1.65 billion people ahead of China with 1.41 billion.

Table 3, from the population database maintained by the United Nations, converts the regional growth rates into actual and projected numbers of people by region, confi rming that the Asia-Pacifi c territory will continue to have more inhabitants than all other world regions combined.

Charts 3 and 4 illustrate how the

Where consumer numbers are growing fastest W

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TABLE 1: Average annual rates of change for population by world region, 2000-2019

Population change (%)

2000-2009 2010-2019

World 1.22 1.06

Africa 2.35 2.22

Asia-Pacifi c 1.19 0.98

Latin America + Caribbean 1.22 0.93

North America 0.99 0.87

Europe 0.27 0.06

Source: OECD, from UN World Population Prospects - 2008 Revision

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,0000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0World North

AmericaAsia Oceania

(milli

on)

19902000201020202050

(source: FAO)



Chart 2: Percentage change in human population by world region

TABLE 3: World and regional population sizes (in millions), 1990-20501990 2000 2010 2020 2050

World 5295 6124 6907 7667 9191

Africa 636 813 1007 1228 1937

Asia-Pacifi c 3127 3707 4165 4593 5265

Latin America + Caribbean 444 523 599 667 783

North America 283 315 346 375 438

Europe 788 728 715 705 644

(source: UN)

WorldUnitedStates Former

SovietUnion

Developingcountries

LatinAmerica

MiddleEast

Africa

Asia

Pecent3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

(source: US Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau and USDA-ERS)

1981-901991-20002001-092010-19

TABLE 2: Human population (x 1000) in 10 countries + EU-27, listed by projected size in 2050

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

India 371857 549312 860195 1220182 1505748 1658270

China 554760 830675 1149069 1351512 1458421 1408846

EU-27 .. 435474 470388 499389 519942 515303

USA 152271 205052 249623 308936 363584 419854

Indonesia 79538 120532 182847 239600 279666 296885

Brazil 53975 95989 146593 196834 237738 259770

Mexico 27741 50785 83971 108396 120928 121856

Russia 102702 130392 148615 140318 123915 107832

Turkey 21484 35294 56104 76505 90806 96498

Japan 84109 104665 123611 127176 115224 95152

UK 50373 55711 57237 62309 70750 76959

(source: OECD, from UN database)

regional populations around the world have changed over recent decades and are expected to change in the next 10 years, but in absolute terms and in percentage growth.

The total shown by Table 3 for all Europe includes the 27 countries belonging to the European Union. Estimates from the community’s statistical offi ce Eurostat gave the population of the EU-27 on Jan. 1, 2010 as 501.1 million, compared with 499.7 million a year earlier. The addition of 1.4 million people in 2009 worked out at an annual rate of 2.7 per 1,000 inhabitants, of which 1.0 came from more births than deaths and 1.7 was the result of net migration.

From the projections cited, it seems the EU’s population by 2050 is unlikely to have grown above about 515 million, with the USA at 420 million, Indonesia at almost 300 million and Brazil at 260 million.


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World human population by country (x 1000)2000 2009 2010

Afghanistan 20536 28150 29117

Albania 3068 3155 3169

Algeria 30506 34895 35423

American Samoa 58 67 69

Andorra 66 86 87

Angola 14280 18498 18993

Anguilla 11 15 15

Antigua and Barbuda 77 88 89

Argentina 36939 40276 40666

Armenia 3076 3083 3090

Aruba 91 107 107

Australia 19171 21293 21512

Austria 8005 8364 8387

Azerbaijan 8121 8832 8934

Bahamas 305 342 346

Bahrain 650 791 807

Bangladesh 140767 162221 164425

Barbados 252 256 257

Belarus 10054 9634 9588

Belgium 10193 10647 10698

Belize 252 307 313

Benin 6659 8935 9212

Bermuda 63 65 65

Bhutan 561 697 708

Bolivia 8317 9863 10031

Bosnia and Herzegovina 3694 3767 3760

Botswana 1723 1950 1978

Brazil 174174 193734 195423

British Virgin Islands 21 23 23

Brunei Darussalam 333 400 407

Bulgaria 8006 7545 7497

Burkina Faso 11676 15757 16287

Burundi 6473 8303 8519

Cambodia 12760 14805 15053

Cameroon 15865 19522 19958

Canada 30687 33573 33890

Cape Verde 439 506 513

Cayman Islands 40 56 57

Central African Republic 3746 4422 4506

Chad 8402 11206 11506

Chile 15419 16970 17135

China 1274062 1353311 1361763

Colombia 39773 45660 46300


Comoros 701 870 890

Congo 3036 3683 3759

Congo, Democratic Republic of 50829 66020 67827

Cook Islands 18 20 20

Costa Rica 3931 4579 4640

Côte d’Ivoire 17281 21075 21571

Croatia 4505 4416 4410

Cuba 11087 11204 11204

Cyprus 787 871 880

Czech Republic 10224 10369 10411

Denmark 5335 5470 5481

Djibouti 730 864 879

Dominica 68 67 67

Dominican Republic 8830 10090 10225

Ecuador 12310 13625 13775

Egypt 70174 82999 84474

El Salvador 5945 6163 6194

Equatorial Guinea 529 676 693

Eritrea 3657 5073 5224

Estonia 1370 1340 1339

Ethiopia 65515 82825 84976

Falkland Islands 3 3 3

Faroe Islands 46 50 50

Fiji 802 849 854

Finland 5173 5326 5346

France 59128 62343 62637

French Guiana 165 226 231

French Polynesia 236 269 272

Gabon 1233 1475 1501

Gambia 1302 1705 1751

Georgia 4745 4260 4219

Germany 82075 82167 82057

Ghana 19529 23837 24333

Gibraltar 29 31 31

Greece 10942 11161 11183

Greenland 56 57 57

Grenada 101 104 104

Guadeloupe 429 465 467

Guam 155 178 180

Guatemala 11231 14027 14377

Guinea 8384 10069 10324

Guinea-Bissau 1304 1611 1647

Guyana 756 762 761



Haiti 8648 10033 10188

Holy See 1 1 1

Honduras 6230 7466 7616

Hungary 10215 9993 9973

Iceland 281 323 329

India 1042590 1198003 1214464

Indonesia 205280 229965 232517

Iran, Islamic Republic of 66903 74196 75078

Iraq 24652 30747 31467

Ireland 3804 4515 4589

Israel 6084 7170 7285

Italy 57116 59870 60098

Jamaica 2568 2719 2730

Japan 126706 127156 126995

Jordan 4853 6316 6472

Kazakhstan 14957 15637 15753

Kenya 31441 39802 40863

Kiribati 84 98 100

Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of

22859 23906 23991

Korea, Republic of 46429 48333 48501

Kuwait 2228 2985 3051

Kyrgyzstan 4955 5482 5550

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

5403 6320 6436

Latvia 2374 2249 2240

Lebanon 3772 4224 4255

Lesotho 1889 2067 2084

Liberia 2824 3955 4102

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 5346 6420 6546

Liechtenstein 33 36 36

Lithuania 3501 3287 3255

Luxembourg 437 486 492

Madagascar 15275 19625 20146

Malawi 11831 15263 15692

Malaysia 23274 27468 27914

Maldives 272 309 314

Mali 10523 13010 13323

Malta 389 409 410

Marshall Islands 52 62 63

Martinique 385 405 406

Mauritania 2604 3291 3366

Mauritius 1195 1288 1297

Mexico 99531 109610 110645


Micronesia, Federated States of 107 111 111

Moldova 4100 3604 3576

Monaco 32 33 33

Mongolia 2389 2671 2701

Montenegro 621 624 626

Montserrat 5 6 6

Morocco 28827 31993 32381

Mozambique 18249 22894 23406

Myanmar 46610 50020 50496

Namibia 1824 2171 2212

Nauru 10 10 10

Nepal 24432 29331 29853

Netherlands 15915 16592 16653

Netherlands Antilles 181 198 201

New Caledonia 215 250 254

New Zealand 3868 4266 4303

Nicaragua 5101 5743 5822

Niger 11031 15290 15891

Nigeria 124842 154729 158259

Niue 2 1 1

Northern Mariana Islands 69 87 88

Norway 4484 4812 4855

Occupied Palestinian Territory 3149 4277 4409

Oman 2402 2845 2905

Pakistan 148132 180808 184753

Palau 19 20 21

Panama 2951 3454 3508

Papua New Guinea 5388 6732 6888

Paraguay 5350 6349 6460

Peru 26004 29165 29496

Philippines 77689 91983 93617

Poland 38433 38074 38038

Portugal 10226 10707 10732

Puerto Rico 3819 3982 3998

Qatar 617 1409 1508

Réunion 724 827 837

Romania 22138 21275 21190

Russian Federation 146670 140874 140367

Rwanda 7958 9998 10277

Saint Helena 5 4 4

Saint Kitts and Nevis 46 52 52

Saint Lucia 157 172 174

Saint Pierre and Miquelon 6 6 6


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Saint Vincent and Grenadines 108 109 109

Samoa 177 179 179

San Marino 27 31 32

Sao Tome and Principe 140 163 165

Saudi Arabia 20808 25721 26246

Senegal 9902 12534 12861

Serbia and Montenegro 10795 9850 9856

Seychelles 81 84 85

Sierra Leone 4228 5696 5836

Singapore 4018 4737 4837

Slovakia 5379 5406 5412

Slovenia 1985 2020 2025

Solomon Islands 416 523 536

Somalia 7394 9133 9359

South Africa 44872 50110 50492

Spain 40264 44904 45317

Sri Lanka 18767 20238 20410

Sudan 34904 42272 43192

Suriname 467 520 524

Swaziland 1080 1185 1202

Sweden 8860 9249 9293

Switzerland 7184 7568 7595

Syrian Arab Republic 16511 21906 22505

Tajikistan 6173 6952 7075

Tanzania, United Republic of 34131 43739 45040

Thailand 62347 67764 68139

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

2012 2042 2043


Timor-Leste 815 1134 1171

Togo 5247 6619 6780

Tokelau 2 1 1

Tonga 99 104 104

Trinidad and Tobago 1295 1339 1344

Tunisia 9452 10272 10374

Turkey 66460 74816 75705

Turkmenistan 4502 5110 5177

Turks and Caicos Islands 19 33 33

Tuvalu 10 10 10

Uganda 24433 32710 33796

Ukraine 48870 45708 45433

United Arab Emirates 3238 4599 4707

United Kingdom 59131 61796 62130

United States of America 287842 314659 317641

Uruguay 3321 3361 3372

US Virgin Islands 109 110 109

Uzbekistan 24776 27488 27794

Vanuatu 190 240 246

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of 24408 28583 29044

Viet Nam 78663 88069 89029

Wallis and Futuna Islands 15 15 15

Western Sahara 315 513 530

Yemen 18182 23580 24256

Zambia 10467 12935 13257

Zimbabwe 12455 12523 12644

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A world average of 90.77 million metric tons of poultry meat per year was consumed

during the period 2007 to 2009. Some 35% of this represented consumption in the Asia-Pacific countries, with 20% in Latin America and the Caribbean. But as Chart 1 illustrates, the market remains well-spread globally as there are shares of slightly over 18.5% for North America and nearly 18% for Europe alongside 3.5 to 4% for Africa.

The joint review of market prospects produced by OECD and FAO considers that the world consumption of poultry meat

could increase almost 28% by 2019, compared with the 2007-09 average. It projects a possible rise of 19% in the annual uptake per person in developing economies with just 11% for the developed economies.

Amount per personA common confusion in food

market analyses is to mistake consumption for demand. The average weight of meat eaten per person annually in a country or region is more useful to compare rates of uptake between territories and different meats than to identify short-term variations in demand as expressed by consumer purchases within a country.

For poultry meat in 2010, dividing a total consumption figure of 94 million metric tons by a nominal human population of 6.9 billion indicates an average of 13.62 kilograms consumed worldwide.

The average for the three years 2007 to 2009 worked out at 13.5 kilograms (kg). However, it masked a consumption gap between developed and developing economies that continues to be significant. Whereas the developed-economy countries shared a 2007-2009 average of 27.9 kg, according to an OECD

review, in developing-economy countries the figure was only 9.9 kg.

Regionally, too, the differences soon emerge. Again on the basis of 2007-2009 averages, North America had by far the largest rate of poultry meat consumption per person per year at 49.2 kg. Next biggest was the combined average of 38.1 kg found for Australia and New Zealand, ahead of 31.6 kg for Latin America and the Caribbean and 22.4 kg for Europe. At the other end of the scale came the Asia-Pacific with 8.2 kg and Africa with 3.5 kg.

In round terms, chicken meat — almost all from broilers — accounts for about 11.5 kg of the poultry meat consumed per person globally.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics on the total consumption of broiler meat by country in 2009 and 2010 are expressed in terms of dressed weight (ready-to-cook = RTC) rather than carcass weight. They show domestic uptakes of broiler meat that range from 13.6 million metric tons in the USA, 12.6 million tons in China, 8.6 million tons in the EU-27 and 8 million tons in Brazil down to 3.3 million tons in Mexico, 2.7 million tons in Russia and India, almost 2 million tons in Japan, 1.6 million tons in Iran and around 1.4 million tons in both Argentina and South Africa.

Longer-term trendChart 2 looks at the longer-

term trend for poultry meat consumption in some indicator countries and the European Union. Several of these were already at or over the world average for uptake per person per year in 2000, yet they have managed to increase their rates even further during the last 10 years. Few of the lower-rate countries at the start of this comparison achieved more than steady growth, the exception

Chart 1: Poultry meat consumption 2007-09 by world region

More growth in sight for poultry meat uptakese

ctio

n n

ine

Meat

co

nsu

mp

tio

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Africa

Asia-PacificEurope

Latin AmericaNorth America



being Russia.The view over the long term

shows that consumption patterns are changing. A U.S. report for 1970 found that 70% of poultry sales nationally were in whole-bird form and just 11% were further processed. In 2009, only 4% of meat was sold whole and 48% further processed. There has also been the fast-food revolution in the USA in the meantime, so that food-service outlets now account for 42% of U.S. chicken sales.

Also in the USA, the National Turkey Federation has noted how the consumption of turkey meat has changed to being year-round instead of highly seasonal. U.S. turkey consumption in 2009 was 7.7 kg per person, practically unchanged from the level recorded in 2000. But the amount has more than doubled in 40 years and in that time the proportion eaten in the last quarter of the year has dropped from over half to under one-third.

Broiler meat consumption per person (kilograms/year)2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Argentina 23.9 23.8 32.3 34.2 35.6

Australia 28.9 33.5 34.1 32.8 31.9

Brazil 28.7 34.4 38.5 38.8 38.7

Canada 28.1 29.5 29.0 30.6 31.2

China-mainland 7.4 7.7 9.3 10.4 11.1

China-Hong Kong 34.7 38.6 37.9 39.3 40.3

Egypt 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.4 7.7

EU-27 15.3 16.5 17.7 18.1 18.5

India 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4

Indonesia 2.2 2.8 3.8 4.2 4.5

Japan 14.0 14.7 15.4 15.7 15.8

Mexico 21.4 26.7 29.6 31.3 33.0

New Zealand 27.6 37.6 35.1 35.8 36.7

Paraguay 6.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.0

Philippines 6.5 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.0

Russia 9.0 15.1 19.7 22.1 23.5

South Africa 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.8 34.6

Korea Rep. 9.8 9.8 10.4 11.1 15.4

Taiwan 28.7 28.7 27.3 27.9 30.1

Thailand 12.3 12.3 13.3 13.4 13.9

Ukraine 0.9 0.9 2.4 3.3 22.8

USA 40.6 45.3 43.0 45.0 46.3

Vietnam 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.2 6.3

source: FAPRI

Chart 2: Poultry meat consumption trends in selected countries

Vietnam

China

Japan

South Africa

Argentina

Taiwan

USA

0 10 20 30 40 50Kilograms per person/year

20102000


How egg uptake is changing

Global egg consumption has stayed strong throughout the economic recession

and the start of the global economic recovery.

U.S. statistics for 2009 gave an illustration when they showed the domestic uptake in the USA rising by about 1% together with a 17.4% increase in export sales.

However, they also demonstrated that a trend in the demand for eggs is not necessarily reflected in the calculated average egg consumption per person per year. Despite the increase in volumes produced and sold in the USA, 2009 data suggested that the average number of eggs consumed per person per year had decreased, to 247.7 from 248.3 in 2008. Adjusted data

A commentary on egg industry facts by the American Egg Board has warned that “per-capita consumption is a measure of total egg production divided by the total population, it does not represent demand.” It reported that the U.S. Department of Agriculture had adjusted data to reflect more recent census information on the size of the human population in the USA. This adjustment indicated an average of 251.7 eggs per person in 2000, rising to a peak of 258.1 eggs in 2006 before settling back to averages closer to 250 eggs.

Obviously there is always an influence of price on sales. The reported U.S. all-eggs average price in 2008 had been US$1.09 per dozen (12 eggs), which dropped in 2009 to 81.7 U.S. cents per dozen eggs. Chart1 compares U.S. and German price trends for eggs.

Expressed in terms of the annual per-capita average consumption of eggs by weight, a figure of around 40 kg for the USA puts it in the Top 20 countries on current evidence, as the accompanying Table 1 demonstrates.

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Top 20 countries for egg consumption (kg per person/year)2005 2006 2007

Brunei Darussalam 40.57 41.95 57.52

Denmark 51.95 53.39 53.71

Japan 52.33 52.01 53.67

Paraguay 47.05 49.16 51.34

Mexico 44.94 51.04 50.33

Netherlands 47.96 49.45 49.14

China 46.62 46.09 47.69

Hungary 43.84 44.03 43.26

Malta 32.78 39.96 42.17

Latvia 36.70 40.91 42.13

Belarus 39.65 41.86 41.47

Spain 35.63 39.03 40.78

Kuwait 35.2 30.01 40.60

France 39.33 38.38 40.28

Ukraine 37.74 39.89 39.92

USA 39.72 39.67 39.15

Russian Federation 38.30 39.23 39.14


Chart 1: Egg price trends in North America (USA) and European Union (Germany)

U.S. Large eggs, cents per dozen

Germany large eggs, Euros per 100

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

8-Jan

8-Jan

15-Ja

n15

-Jan

22-Ja

n22

-Jan

29-Ja

n29

-Jan

5-Fe

b5-

Feb

12-Fe

b12

-Feb

19-Fe

b19

-Feb

26-Fe

b26

-Feb

5-Ma

r5-

Mar

12-M

ar12

-Mar

19-M

ar19

-Mar

26-M

ar26

-Mar

2-Apr

2-Apr

9-Ap

r9-

Apr

16-A

pr16

-Apr

U.S. 2008 U.S. 2009 U.S. 2010

EU 2008 EU 2009 EU 2010

We have reported previously an assessment of world data by the International Egg Commission that said the average number of eggs eaten per person in 2007 had been

highest in China at 349, ahead of Mexico at 345.

The nature of consumption is changing. In developed-economy countries the trend is to increase

the uptake of processed egg products, whereas in developing-economy countries the tendency remains for improving incomes to raise the uptake of shell eggs.



In 2010, an edition of WATT PoultryUSA featured the results of a survey it had co-funded with Givauden Flavors Company, in which the frequency of eating

chicken was found to have risen among U.S. consumers.

Sponsored by the National Chicken Council, the survey

probed how the relatively weak economy in the USA in early 2010 had affected chicken consumption. Its feedback from 1,085 consumers revealed that nine out of 10 households consumed chicken during a two-week period in 2010.

Moreover, the people interviewed said that they had eaten chicken at home an average of 3.6 times in this period — the highest frequency of any of survey conducted in the series since 2001.

Markets in the news: US consumers eat more chicken

The combined total of American shell-egg and egg-product exports in the first half of 2010 recorded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reached the equivalent of 124 million dozen eggs, some 24% more than in the first six months of 2009.

A large portion of the first-half increase involved larger exports to the Asian countries of Japan, Hong Kong, China and Korea. Another area of export growth was the European Union, with increased shipments to EU member states such as Germany and the Netherlands.

However, the USDA said U.S. egg exports in the last six months of 2010 were not expected to match sales in the second half of 2009.

Markets in the news: Surge in egg exports

International Sales

Frans Willem van BeemenTel: +31.344.653442, Fax:+31.344.653.261 E-mail: [email protected]

Michael van den DriesTel: +31.79.3230782, Fax: +31.79.3230783 E-mail: [email protected]

Tineke van Spanje Tel: +31.495.526155, Fax: +31.495.525.126 E-mail: [email protected]

China/Hong Kong/ Taiwan SalesDingding Li, Tel: +86.21.64474625 E-mail: [email protected]

Poultry Executive Guide 201047

USA/Canada Sales

Pam Ballard Tel: 815.966.5576, Fax: 815.968.0941E-mail: [email protected]

Ginny StadelTel: 815.966.5591, Fax: 815.968.0941E-mail: [email protected]

Corporate HeadquartersWATT, 303 N Main St, Ste 500, Rockford, Illinois 61101-1018 USA

Tel: +1.815.966.5400 Fax: +1.815.968.6416

CentreFocus llc ...........................................41

Chore-Time Brock International ....................44

Cobb-Vantress Inc ......................................48

Evonik Degussa GmbH Feedadditives ..............3

Gessulli Agribusiness...................................46

Jamesway Incubator Co...............................32

Jansen Poultry Equipment..............................7

Lohmann Anim Hlth GmbH & Co ...................25

Lubing Maschinenfabrik GmbH........................9

Meyn Food Processing Tech..........................11

Moba BV ....................................................19

Novus Intl Inc.............................................33

Prinzen bv..................................................29

SALMET International GmbH ........................13

Simmons Engineering..................................40

Specht Ten Elsen GmbH...............................31

Stork Poultry Processing..............................23

Tavsan Tavukculuk Ekipan San ve Tic AS........47

Tesgo Intl...................................................33

Vencomatic BV............................................18

VIV-VNU Exhibitions Europe .........................15

Zagro Singapore Pte Ltd ..............................22

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