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  • 8/3/2019 Around the World in 60 Minutes - Jose Baeta Tomas

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    Real Estate Industry in Brazil

    15Th

    ULI Europe Annual Conference

    February, 2011

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Growth

    Over the last decade, Brazil experienced an unparalleled growth trend and should continue togrow at solid rates in the foreseeable future

    Source: IBGE, MCM

    GDP GrowthBrazil

    Source: MCM

    Brazil

    Area: 8.6 million sq kmPopulation (09): 193.7millionGDP (10E): US$ 2.0 trillionGDP per capita (10E): US$ 10.4k

    1.2%

    5.7%

    3.2%

    3.9%

    6.1%

    5.2%

    -0.7%

    7.5%

    4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6%

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

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    Decreasing Unemployment & Credit Expansion

    Favorable economic conditions have led unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2003, andhave boosted both demand for credit and the purchasing power of middle class families mainly

    Unemployment Rate

    Source: MCM

    12.3%

    11.5%

    9.9% 10.0%

    9.3%

    7.9% 8.1%

    7.3%

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E

    Total Credit to Individuals Outstanding (R$ bn)

    Source: Cetelem O Observador 2010, Itau Securities

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    With the strong growth of the Brazilian economy in the last decade, approximately 30 millionpeople have moved upwards into the middle class whose disposable income increased by 67%...

    Source: Cetelem O Observador 2010

    Fast Growing Middle Class

    Middle Class: Disposable Income(1)

    (R$/month)Booming Middle Class

    122

    204

    2005 2009

    Note: (1) Income available for spending and savingsSource: Cetelem O Observador 2010, Itau Securities

    67%

    Approximately R$ 10 billion increase in monthlydisposable income

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Residential Market

    Sound potential demand of circa R$173 billion with 58% in the mid and upper-mid income classesand 42% in the affordable entry-level segment

    E

    ntry-level

    families

    Midand

    Uppermid

    incomefamilies

    Total households(million)

    R$16k -R$32K

    R$8,000R$16,000

    R$4,000 R$8,000

    R$2,000 R$4,000

    R$1,000 R$2,000

    Up to R$1,000

    Above R$32k

    Total

    0 0.3

    0.3 1.3

    1.1 4.3

    3.3 11.0

    8.4 21.8

    15.5 27.6

    31.7 29.1

    Monthly Income Bracket

    13

    43

    139

    335

    583

    526

    (113)

    1,526

    # Annual households(demand in thousand)2007 2030e

    60.3 95.4

    Annual Potential Demand

    (R$ bn)

    Total volume(R$ bn) 101

    Households(thousand) 530

    Total volume(R$ bn) 72

    Households(thousand) 846

    Source: press releases of listed companies

    (

    (1) It includes only 50% of the potential annual households from R$1,000 R$2,000 bracket

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    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Residential Market

    Growing Credit Availability: credit offer for realestate financing has increased dramatically withlower interest rates and longer tenors, bringing ahuge number of families to the affordable entry-level

    segmentReal Estate Financing (R$ bn)

    3 4 6 710 16

    30

    3 69

    18

    30 34

    55

    610

    15

    25

    40

    50

    85

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E

    FGTS SBPE

    56%04-10 CAGR

    Real Estate Financing (as a % of GDP)

    75%

    68%

    45%

    45%

    28%

    17%

    11%

    3%

    UK

    USA

    Spain

    Germany

    France

    Chile

    Mexico

    Brazil

    Huge GrowthPotential

    Source: press releases of listed companies

    New Stock vs Cumulative Price Evolution (*) - SP

    Thousand units (%)world crisis

    New Stock Cum. Price Evolution

    Source: Secovi -SP

    (*) In R$ per m

    Price Trends: Despite transitory drop of newlaunchings during the world financial crisihousing prices continues to go up

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Office Market

    0 300 600 900 1200 1500

    Occupancy Costs per m per year

    Most Expensive World Locations

    Source: C&W2010

    So Paulo represents the largest office submarket oBrazil accounting for 60% of the total class A buildings

    Rio de Janeiro is the 2nd largest office submarket andalso the most expensive, recording R$142 per m pe

    month in 3Q10, mainly due to both the lack of vacanlands for future developments and growing demand

    Rio de Janeiro is among the top 20 most expensivelocations in the world but still has lower rental rateswhen compared to that of prime office markets such asTokyo, London, Dubai, New York and Paris indicatingpotential for future appreciation

    With an overall average of R$70 per m permonth, in 3Q10 asking rental rates increasedabout 23% yoy

    Overall vacancy rate averaged 10% in 3Q10

    Source: C&W 2010

    Overall Asking Rental Rates (Class A)

    -

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    105

    120

    135

    150

    So Paulo Rio de

    Janeiro

    Braslia Porto

    Alegre

    Salvador Vitria Curitiba

    R$/sqm/month

    3Q09 3Q10

    Overall Vacancy Rates (Class A)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    So Paulo Rio de

    Janeiro

    Braslia Porto

    Alegre

    Salvador Vitria Curitiba

    VacancyR

    ate

    3Q09 3Q10

    142

    91

    Average = 10%

    Average = 70

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Hospitality Market

    Source: JLL Hotels

    Since 2004 ADR and RevPAR grew 5.7% and 8.4% per year, respectively, as occupancy rates havebeen going up. The southeast region represents almost half of the entire national supply with SoPaulo and Rio de Janeiro being the main submarkets

    78 7583

    87

    97 104

    112

    181

    164158

    152

    140137

    151

    62%63%61%57%59%

    55%52%

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    Average Daily Rate (R$) RevPAR (R$) Room Occupancy

    Brazil Lodging Performance8%

    21%

    21%

    47%

    3%

    Mid-west Northeast North Southeast South

    Distribution of Rooms per Region

    Source: JLL Hotels

    440,857Total Number of Rooms:

    # Brands Rooms % of Total

    1 Accor 23,950 5%2 Choice 9,158 2%

    3 Golden Tulip 5,313 1%4 Blue Tree 4,149 1%5 Nacional inn 3,747 1%6 Meli 3,395 1%7 IHG 3,247 1%

    8 Transamrica 2,774 1%9 Windsor 2,726 1%

    10 Othon 2,717 1%61,176 14%

    Offered by national andinternational brands

    Top 10 Brands

    Source: JLL Hotels

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Industrial Market

    Net Absorption

    Gross Absorption

    Vacancy Rate (prime properties)

    Overall Vacancy Rate

    Industrial Space Performance*

    VacancyRate(%

    )

    Absorption(m)

    (*) So Paulo & Campinas RegionSource: CBRE

    Industrial real estate market continues to experience strong net absorption with low vacancy ratesand escalating rents. The average vacancy rate is 6.3% with asking rents growing 7.8% per yearon average, and ranging from R$12 to R$25 per m per month the highest levels since 2007

    13

    14

    19

    16

    17

    19

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Asking Rental Rates* (R$/ m / month)

    Growing direct investments on new plants are expected to lead cumulative absorption(demand) to historic levels of 600 thousand m in 2010

    Coupled with rising construction costs, leasing prices may experience a new rising wave incoming future, mainly for built-to-suit developments

    Trends:

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

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    Retail Sales in Shopping Centers

    Shopping centers in Brazil still have a very low market penetration and representativeness inretail sales comparatively to other countries, which indicate a strong growth potential

    Shopping Centers Market PenetrationTotal GLA (m) / 1,000 inhabitants (2008)

    1,872

    1,128

    21381 47

    USA Canada France Mexico Brazil

    66%

    51% 50%

    28%

    18%

    Canada USA Mexico France Brazil

    (% 2008)

    (1)

    (1)

    Note: (1) 2009 dataSource: ABRASCE and IBGE

    Note: (1) 2009 dataSource: ABRASCE

    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market

    R l E t t M k t i B il Sh i C t M k t

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    Total GLA

    Source: ABRASCE (2010)

    In the last 10 years, the number of shopping centers and GLA increased at annual rates of 3.8%and 6.6%, respectively

    Number of Operating Shopping Centers

    Source: ABRASCE (2010)

    2000 2009 CAGR: 3.8% 2000 2009 CAGR: 6.6%

    280294

    304316

    325338

    351365

    377393

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    5.1 5.25.5 5.6

    6.26.5

    7.5

    8.38.6

    9.1

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market

    R l E t t M k t i B il Sh i C t M k t

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    Geographic Distribution of GLAGeographic Distribution of Number of Malls

    North

    3% Northeast

    14%

    Mid-West

    9%

    Southeast

    55%

    South

    19%

    North

    3% Northeast

    14%

    Mid-West

    8%

    Southeast

    60%

    South

    15%

    The Southeast Region the most economically advanced in Brazil - holds more than half oftotal malls and GLA in Brazil

    Malls in operation: 393 Total GLA: 9.1 million m2

    Source: ABRASCE (2010) Source: ABRASCE (2010)

    Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market

    Agenda

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    Agenda

    1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil

    Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center

    3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance

    Portfolio Footprint

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    Portfolio Footprint

    1

    City: Campinas (SP)GLA: 114.2 k m2

    Ownership: 51.0%

    2

    City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 16.0 k m2

    Ownership: 100.0%

    City: Campinas (SP)GLA1): 118.730 m2

    Ownership1): 51.0%

    Parque D. Pedro

    Boavista Shopping

    3

    City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 29.5 k m2

    Ownership: 73.2%

    Shopping Penha

    4 Franca Shopping

    City: Franca (SP)GLA: 18.1 k m2

    Ownership: 67.4%

    5 Tivoli ShoppingCity: Sta. Barbara

    dOeste (SP)GLA: 22.1 k m2

    Ownership: 30.0%

    6 Shopping MetrpoleCity: So Bernardo doCampo (SP)GLA1): 25.0 k m2

    Ownership: 100.0%

    7 Ptio Brasil

    City: Braslia (DF)GLA: 29.0 k m2

    Ownership: 10.4%

    8

    Shopping Plaza Sul

    City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 23.0 k m2

    Ownership: 30.0%

    9 Shopping Campo Limpo

    City: So Paulo (SP)

    GLA: 19.9 k m2

    Ownership: 20.0%

    10 Manaura Shopping

    City: Manaus (AM)GLA: 46.7 k m2

    Ownership: 100.0%

    12 Boulevard Londrina Shopping

    City: Londrina (PR)GLA2): 47.8 k m2

    Ownership: 84.5%Exp. Opening2): 2H 2012

    11 Uberlndia Shopping

    City: Uberlndia (MG)GLA2): 43.6 k m2

    Ownership: 100.0%Exp. Opening2): 2H 2011

    13 Passeio das guas Shopping

    City: Goinia (GO)GLA: 78.1 k m2

    Ownership: 100.0%Exp. Opening: 2013

    Projects under development:

    Centers # StoresTotal GLA

    (000 m)

    Operating Assets 1,934 347.7

    Greenfields Projects 691 173.3

    Total 2,625 521.0

    8

    1) Excludes GLA owned by third parties

    2) Includes PDP 1 BVs stake

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    Thank you!

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    Disclaimer

    The material herein has been prepared based on data collected through our own research as well as information available to us from public

    and other external sources. In respect to all external data, the sources are believed to be reliable and have been used in good faith.

    However, Sonae Sierra Brasil can not accept responsability for their accuracy and completeness, nor for any undisclosed matters that would

    affect the conclusions we have drawn. In addition, this presentation is provided for informational purposes only and It does not constitute an

    offer or a solicitation of any kind or to participate in any particular trading strategy.

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