around the world in 60 minutes - jose baeta tomas
TRANSCRIPT
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Real Estate Industry in Brazil
15Th
ULI Europe Annual Conference
February, 2011
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Growth
Over the last decade, Brazil experienced an unparalleled growth trend and should continue togrow at solid rates in the foreseeable future
Source: IBGE, MCM
GDP GrowthBrazil
Source: MCM
Brazil
Area: 8.6 million sq kmPopulation (09): 193.7millionGDP (10E): US$ 2.0 trillionGDP per capita (10E): US$ 10.4k
1.2%
5.7%
3.2%
3.9%
6.1%
5.2%
-0.7%
7.5%
4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
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Decreasing Unemployment & Credit Expansion
Favorable economic conditions have led unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2003, andhave boosted both demand for credit and the purchasing power of middle class families mainly
Unemployment Rate
Source: MCM
12.3%
11.5%
9.9% 10.0%
9.3%
7.9% 8.1%
7.3%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Total Credit to Individuals Outstanding (R$ bn)
Source: Cetelem O Observador 2010, Itau Securities
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With the strong growth of the Brazilian economy in the last decade, approximately 30 millionpeople have moved upwards into the middle class whose disposable income increased by 67%...
Source: Cetelem O Observador 2010
Fast Growing Middle Class
Middle Class: Disposable Income(1)
(R$/month)Booming Middle Class
122
204
2005 2009
Note: (1) Income available for spending and savingsSource: Cetelem O Observador 2010, Itau Securities
67%
Approximately R$ 10 billion increase in monthlydisposable income
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Real Estate Market in Brazil - Residential Market
Sound potential demand of circa R$173 billion with 58% in the mid and upper-mid income classesand 42% in the affordable entry-level segment
E
ntry-level
families
Midand
Uppermid
incomefamilies
Total households(million)
R$16k -R$32K
R$8,000R$16,000
R$4,000 R$8,000
R$2,000 R$4,000
R$1,000 R$2,000
Up to R$1,000
Above R$32k
Total
0 0.3
0.3 1.3
1.1 4.3
3.3 11.0
8.4 21.8
15.5 27.6
31.7 29.1
Monthly Income Bracket
13
43
139
335
583
526
(113)
1,526
# Annual households(demand in thousand)2007 2030e
60.3 95.4
Annual Potential Demand
(R$ bn)
Total volume(R$ bn) 101
Households(thousand) 530
Total volume(R$ bn) 72
Households(thousand) 846
Source: press releases of listed companies
(
(1) It includes only 50% of the potential annual households from R$1,000 R$2,000 bracket
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Real Estate Market in Brazil - Residential Market
Growing Credit Availability: credit offer for realestate financing has increased dramatically withlower interest rates and longer tenors, bringing ahuge number of families to the affordable entry-level
segmentReal Estate Financing (R$ bn)
3 4 6 710 16
30
3 69
18
30 34
55
610
15
25
40
50
85
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
FGTS SBPE
56%04-10 CAGR
Real Estate Financing (as a % of GDP)
75%
68%
45%
45%
28%
17%
11%
3%
UK
USA
Spain
Germany
France
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
Huge GrowthPotential
Source: press releases of listed companies
New Stock vs Cumulative Price Evolution (*) - SP
Thousand units (%)world crisis
New Stock Cum. Price Evolution
Source: Secovi -SP
(*) In R$ per m
Price Trends: Despite transitory drop of newlaunchings during the world financial crisihousing prices continues to go up
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Real Estate Market in Brazil - Office Market
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
Occupancy Costs per m per year
Most Expensive World Locations
Source: C&W2010
So Paulo represents the largest office submarket oBrazil accounting for 60% of the total class A buildings
Rio de Janeiro is the 2nd largest office submarket andalso the most expensive, recording R$142 per m pe
month in 3Q10, mainly due to both the lack of vacanlands for future developments and growing demand
Rio de Janeiro is among the top 20 most expensivelocations in the world but still has lower rental rateswhen compared to that of prime office markets such asTokyo, London, Dubai, New York and Paris indicatingpotential for future appreciation
With an overall average of R$70 per m permonth, in 3Q10 asking rental rates increasedabout 23% yoy
Overall vacancy rate averaged 10% in 3Q10
Source: C&W 2010
Overall Asking Rental Rates (Class A)
-
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
So Paulo Rio de
Janeiro
Braslia Porto
Alegre
Salvador Vitria Curitiba
R$/sqm/month
3Q09 3Q10
Overall Vacancy Rates (Class A)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
So Paulo Rio de
Janeiro
Braslia Porto
Alegre
Salvador Vitria Curitiba
VacancyR
ate
3Q09 3Q10
142
91
Average = 10%
Average = 70
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Real Estate Market in Brazil - Hospitality Market
Source: JLL Hotels
Since 2004 ADR and RevPAR grew 5.7% and 8.4% per year, respectively, as occupancy rates havebeen going up. The southeast region represents almost half of the entire national supply with SoPaulo and Rio de Janeiro being the main submarkets
78 7583
87
97 104
112
181
164158
152
140137
151
62%63%61%57%59%
55%52%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Average Daily Rate (R$) RevPAR (R$) Room Occupancy
Brazil Lodging Performance8%
21%
21%
47%
3%
Mid-west Northeast North Southeast South
Distribution of Rooms per Region
Source: JLL Hotels
440,857Total Number of Rooms:
# Brands Rooms % of Total
1 Accor 23,950 5%2 Choice 9,158 2%
3 Golden Tulip 5,313 1%4 Blue Tree 4,149 1%5 Nacional inn 3,747 1%6 Meli 3,395 1%7 IHG 3,247 1%
8 Transamrica 2,774 1%9 Windsor 2,726 1%
10 Othon 2,717 1%61,176 14%
Offered by national andinternational brands
Top 10 Brands
Source: JLL Hotels
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Real Estate Market in Brazil - Industrial Market
Net Absorption
Gross Absorption
Vacancy Rate (prime properties)
Overall Vacancy Rate
Industrial Space Performance*
VacancyRate(%
)
Absorption(m)
(*) So Paulo & Campinas RegionSource: CBRE
Industrial real estate market continues to experience strong net absorption with low vacancy ratesand escalating rents. The average vacancy rate is 6.3% with asking rents growing 7.8% per yearon average, and ranging from R$12 to R$25 per m per month the highest levels since 2007
13
14
19
16
17
19
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Asking Rental Rates* (R$/ m / month)
Growing direct investments on new plants are expected to lead cumulative absorption(demand) to historic levels of 600 thousand m in 2010
Coupled with rising construction costs, leasing prices may experience a new rising wave incoming future, mainly for built-to-suit developments
Trends:
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
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Retail Sales in Shopping Centers
Shopping centers in Brazil still have a very low market penetration and representativeness inretail sales comparatively to other countries, which indicate a strong growth potential
Shopping Centers Market PenetrationTotal GLA (m) / 1,000 inhabitants (2008)
1,872
1,128
21381 47
USA Canada France Mexico Brazil
66%
51% 50%
28%
18%
Canada USA Mexico France Brazil
(% 2008)
(1)
(1)
Note: (1) 2009 dataSource: ABRASCE and IBGE
Note: (1) 2009 dataSource: ABRASCE
Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market
R l E t t M k t i B il Sh i C t M k t
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Total GLA
Source: ABRASCE (2010)
In the last 10 years, the number of shopping centers and GLA increased at annual rates of 3.8%and 6.6%, respectively
Number of Operating Shopping Centers
Source: ABRASCE (2010)
2000 2009 CAGR: 3.8% 2000 2009 CAGR: 6.6%
280294
304316
325338
351365
377393
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5.1 5.25.5 5.6
6.26.5
7.5
8.38.6
9.1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market
R l E t t M k t i B il Sh i C t M k t
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Geographic Distribution of GLAGeographic Distribution of Number of Malls
North
3% Northeast
14%
Mid-West
9%
Southeast
55%
South
19%
North
3% Northeast
14%
Mid-West
8%
Southeast
60%
South
15%
The Southeast Region the most economically advanced in Brazil - holds more than half oftotal malls and GLA in Brazil
Malls in operation: 393 Total GLA: 9.1 million m2
Source: ABRASCE (2010) Source: ABRASCE (2010)
Real Estate Market in Brazil - Shopping Center Market
Agenda
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Agenda
1. Macro Scenario2. The Real Estate Market in Brazil
Residential Office Hospitality Industrial Shopping center
3. Sonae Sierra Brasil at a Glance
Portfolio Footprint
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Portfolio Footprint
1
City: Campinas (SP)GLA: 114.2 k m2
Ownership: 51.0%
2
City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 16.0 k m2
Ownership: 100.0%
City: Campinas (SP)GLA1): 118.730 m2
Ownership1): 51.0%
Parque D. Pedro
Boavista Shopping
3
City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 29.5 k m2
Ownership: 73.2%
Shopping Penha
4 Franca Shopping
City: Franca (SP)GLA: 18.1 k m2
Ownership: 67.4%
5 Tivoli ShoppingCity: Sta. Barbara
dOeste (SP)GLA: 22.1 k m2
Ownership: 30.0%
6 Shopping MetrpoleCity: So Bernardo doCampo (SP)GLA1): 25.0 k m2
Ownership: 100.0%
7 Ptio Brasil
City: Braslia (DF)GLA: 29.0 k m2
Ownership: 10.4%
8
Shopping Plaza Sul
City: So Paulo (SP)GLA: 23.0 k m2
Ownership: 30.0%
9 Shopping Campo Limpo
City: So Paulo (SP)
GLA: 19.9 k m2
Ownership: 20.0%
10 Manaura Shopping
City: Manaus (AM)GLA: 46.7 k m2
Ownership: 100.0%
12 Boulevard Londrina Shopping
City: Londrina (PR)GLA2): 47.8 k m2
Ownership: 84.5%Exp. Opening2): 2H 2012
11 Uberlndia Shopping
City: Uberlndia (MG)GLA2): 43.6 k m2
Ownership: 100.0%Exp. Opening2): 2H 2011
13 Passeio das guas Shopping
City: Goinia (GO)GLA: 78.1 k m2
Ownership: 100.0%Exp. Opening: 2013
Projects under development:
Centers # StoresTotal GLA
(000 m)
Operating Assets 1,934 347.7
Greenfields Projects 691 173.3
Total 2,625 521.0
8
1) Excludes GLA owned by third parties
2) Includes PDP 1 BVs stake
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Thank you!
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Disclaimer
The material herein has been prepared based on data collected through our own research as well as information available to us from public
and other external sources. In respect to all external data, the sources are believed to be reliable and have been used in good faith.
However, Sonae Sierra Brasil can not accept responsability for their accuracy and completeness, nor for any undisclosed matters that would
affect the conclusions we have drawn. In addition, this presentation is provided for informational purposes only and It does not constitute an
offer or a solicitation of any kind or to participate in any particular trading strategy.
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