arthur berger
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Estimation of Changes in Inventory in the Canadian SNA. Arthur Berger. GDP by Final Expenditure, Shenzhen, China, 25-29 April 2011. Accounts that include changes in inventory in the Canadian SNA Revision cycle Quarterly estimation in nominal terms Annual estimation in nominal terms - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Arthur Berger
GDP by Final Expenditure, Shenzhen, China, 25-29 April 2011
Estimation of Changes in Inventory in the Canadian
SNA
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2
Outline
1. Accounts that include changes in inventory in the Canadian SNA
2. Revision cycle
3. Quarterly estimation in nominal terms
4. Annual estimation in nominal terms
5. Deflation
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada3
Accounts that include changes in inventory in the Canadian SNA
Supply-Use accounts (annual) Expenditure based GDP in the Income and
Expenditure accounts (quarterly)
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada4
Revision cycle
Annual revisions Once a year, quarterly IEA are revised going back 3
years to align with the most recent supply-use tables
Sub-annual revisions Between annual revisions, quarterly IEA is revised
within the most recent reference year only
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada5
Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure
Quarterly IEA annual supply-use
Jan-11
Feb-11 Q1/2010 - Q4/2010
Mar-11
Apr-11 2008 GDP C$
May-11 Q1/2008 - Q1/2011
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11 Q1/2011 - Q2/2011 2008 GDP K$
Sep-11
Oct-11 2008 detail
Nov-11 Q1/2011 - Q3/2011
Dec-11
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada6
Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure
2010 2009 2008
Feb-2011 1st annual estimate
May-2011 2nd annual estimate 3rd annual estimate final annual estimate
May-2012 3rd annual estimate final annual estimate
May-2013 final annual estimate
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada7
Quarterly estimation in nominal terms
Businesses• Farms• Other businesses
Government (very small inventories)
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada8
Quarterly estimation: Farm
Grain held on farms (8 categories) Other inventories held on farms (8 categories) Grain in commercial channels (1 category)
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada9
Quarterly estimation: Farm
Data sources• Surveys : market prices and farm-held inventories
(tonnes or head count) • Canadian Wheat Board and the Canadian Grain
Commission: prices and level of inventories (tonnes) for grain in commercial channels
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada10
Quarterly estimation:Non-farm businesses
categories• 23 manufacturing industries x 4 types • 19 retail industries • 16 wholesale industries• 7 other
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada11
Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businesses
Data sources: inventory book values• manufacturing, retail, wholesale: monthly surveys• Mining, transportation, telecom: Quarterly survey of
financial statements• Utilities: survey of utilities• Gold, logging: production, exports, imports, (&
reserves for gold)• Construction, finance: projection of annual data
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada12
Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businesses
Data sources: prices• Manufacturing: Industrial Product Price Indices • Retail: Consumer Price Indices• Wholesale: IPPI and import price indices• Utilities: Uranium, coal, & natural gas prices;
machinery & equipment price index electrical utilities
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada13
Quarterly estimation: Non-farm businessesThe 6 steps for calculating investment in non-farm inventories
1. CBVe Reported current dollar book values of inventories at the end of the period.
2. DEFeDeflator of book values at the end of the period.
3. KBVe = CBVe ÷ DEFeConstant dollar book values of inventories at the end of the period.
4. KVPCt = KBVe - KBVe-1Constant dollar value of physical change for period t.
5. REVtRevaluer of the value of physical change for period t.
6. VPCt = KVPCt × REVtCurrent dollar value of physical change for period t.
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada14
Annual estimation in nominal terms
For most industries: annual figures are derived by adding up the sub annual estimates.
Logging & mining: annual industry surveys Supply-Use accounts:
• a model is used to allocate industry inventories to commodities
• change in inventory may be adjusted to help balance supply versus use
IEA is benchmarked to annual supply use accounts
23-04-22Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada15
Deflation
The 2 steps for revaluing book value of inventories before applying deflators
1. RBVe = KBVe × REVt
Value of inventories at the end of the period, in current dollars, estimated at average prices of the period.
2. RBVb = RBVe - VPCt
Value of inventories at the beginning of the period, in current dollars, estimated at average prices of the period.