asce ports 2010 april 26, 2010 - results direct · 2010. 5. 12. · asce ports 2010 april 26, 2010...
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ASCE PORTS 2010
APRIL 26, 2010
A u s t i n B e c k e r , P h . D . S t u d e n t , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y
E m m e t t I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y P r o g r a m
f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a n d R e s o u r c e s
P r o f . M a r t i n F i s c h e r , D e p a r t m e n t o f C i v i l a n d
E n v i r o n m e n t a l E n g i n e e r i n g
P r o f . B e n S c h w e g l e r , W a l t D i s n e y I m a g i n e e r i n g R e s e a r c h a n d D e v e l o p m e n t
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Overview
Climate Change Impacts and Ports
Survey Findings
The Big Picture - Risk and Responsibility
Next Steps – Case Studies
www.portofcorpuschristi.com
2AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Climate Change Scenarios
Sea levels to rise .6 – 2 meters by 2100
o The world is not a bathtub!
Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 storms
Ocean storm tracks shifting
Inland floodingFrom Bender et al. Science 2010; 327(5964):454.
3AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Why Ports?
Critical infrastructure in U.S. and global economy
o 80% of world freight moves by ship
Highly dependent on specific locations
o Deep water, protective harbors, multi-modal connections
Difficult or impossible to relocate
Highly vulnerable locations
o Often estuaries or river deltas the provide ecosystem services
o Prone to flooding, storm surge, and SLR
www.portofcorpuschristi.com
4AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Impacts of Storms
5
Photos from Alabama State Port Authority
Katrina $100 Million in Damage to 3 MS Ports
$1.7 Billion in damage to Southern LA ports
IKE$2.4 Billion Damageto TX ports/waterways
Just eleven spills released approximately 7 million gallons of oil
AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Global Ports Survey Objectives
Climate Change Impacts –An issue for ports?
Climate Assumptions – What impacts do ports foresee?
Adaptation Strategies – What kinds of changes are ports considering with respect to climate change impacts?
Categories - Are certain categories of ports or port directors considering these issues more than others?
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•Sampled IAPH/AAPA
•Survey Monkey
•Designed/Pretested with IAPH/AAPA
•30 Questions
•Distributed Summer 2009
•93 Usable Responses
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31%
81%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
I feel sufficiently informed about how climate change
will impact my port operations.
Impacts of climate change is something that needs to be
addressed by the port community.
N = 93
Finding 1 – Information
9AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Finding 2 – Sea Level Rise By 2100
10
17%
4% 7%
27%33%
11%
1%
13%
3% 6%
12%
39%
58%
83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Don't Know
Decrease None < .5 meters
.5 - 1 meters
1-2 meters
>2 meters
Expected at Port
Would be a problem
N = 90
AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Will the Sea Level Rise You Expect By 2100Be a Problem For Your Port?
31%
69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Problem Not a Problem
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Key Findings
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Finding 3 – Ports Expanding
65%
78%
43%
19%
18%
3%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Constructing New Terminals
Constructing New Quays or Berths
Acquiring Land
Building New storm Protections
Building Dikes
Building Locks
Building Hurricane Barriers
Pr
ote
cti
on
Ex
pa
ns
ion
13
N = 93
AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
Plans for Expansion in Next 10 Years
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Design Guidelines Used for New Infrastructure
12%
7%
15%
3%
58%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
I am not sure
We Do Not Consider Storm Events in Our Planning
Most Recent Storm
15 0r 50 Year Storm
100 Year Storm
300, 500, or 1000 Year Storm
Percent of Respondents
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2%
40%
22%
6%
12%
6%
5%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
50
Other
Respondents
Yea
rsPlanning Horizons in Years
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Finding 4 – Climate Change Policies
≥100 year return period
CC part of design guidelines or standards
Carries storm insurance
Has storm response plan
Holds staff meetings to discuss adaptation
Carries specific climate change insurance
CC addressed in port strategic plan
CC funded as line item in budget
Has specific CC planning document
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Has specific CC planning document
CC funded as line item in budget
CC addressed in port strategic plan
Carries specfic climate change insurance
Holds staff meeting to discuss adaptation
Has storm response plan
Carries storm insurance
CC part of design guidelines or standards
Use ≥ 100 year return period
Finding 4 – Climate Change Scores
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Port Categories and Adaptation Scores
1.71.9
2.13
22.1
2.5
2.71.8
2.12.3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
None (3)Co-Op Insurance (7)
Self-Insured (17)Standard Insurance (40)
Private Entity (5)Private/Public (31)
Public Entity (36)
Very Large (20)Large (23)
Medium (35)Small (11)
N = 93Max = 7Min = 0Mean = 2.2Std. Dev = 1.7
Category
(# of ports)Score
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Global Comparisons
2.4
1.8
0.8
0.8
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
High-income (75)
upper-middle-income (10)
Lower-middle-income (4)
low-income (4)
World BankIncome Status
0.9
1.4
1.8
1.8
2.8
2.9
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Asia (17)
Africa (5)
Oceania (4)
Europe (17)
North America (43)
South/Central America (7)
World Region
18
Score Score
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Gulf Coast Ports Scored Highest
1.8
2.1
2.9
3.7
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Great Lakes (4)
West Coast (8)
East Coast (14)
Gulf Coast (11)
US Region
19
Score
AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Survey Results Summary
Port staff concerned, but feel uninformed.
Ports rapidly expanding and building new infrastructure.
U.S. Gulf Coast ports tend to have more climate policies already in place.
Planning horizons, design specifications, and management need to incorporate uncertainty and adaptation.
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Risk…
Environment Local/Regional Economic
National/Global Economic
Infrastructure Damage and
Cleanup
EPAFEMACoastal AgencyUSCGNGO
InsurersEngineers
InsurersReinsurers
Port Authorities
Private Firms
Engineers
Coastal Agency
City PlannersStatewide Planners
TaxpayersEmployees
USCGArmy CorpsDOT
Taxpayers
21
and Responsibility
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Next Steps: Look to the Past to Plan for the Future
Looking for case-study ports to further this research
Continue to work with AAPA/IAPH
How have hurricanes changed port planning, technology, and policy?
How do port stakeholders define resilience?
How do port stakeholders work independently and in aggregate to create more resilient ports?
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T h e S u r v e y R e s p o n d e n t s
M e r e d i t h M a r t i n o , A A P A
S a t o s h i I n o u e , I A P H
M e g C a l d w e l l , C e n t e r f o r O c e a n S o l u t i o n s
P a m M a t s o n , S c h o o l o f E a r t h S c i e n c e s
M i k e M a s t r a n d r e a , I P C C / W o o d s I n s t i t u t e
C E E 1 2 9 / 2 2 9 C l a s s
Contact Austin Becker
www.seaports2100.org
23AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
Deltaworks in the Netherlands
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Extra Slides Below
AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar
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Well-Functioning Ports for the Future
Maintain or grow the regional economy
Are good ecosystem stewards
Are profitable
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Perspectives
“Ports should effectively prepare for the impacts of climate change to ensure their role as the indispensable nodal points of global logistic systems.”
Resolution of the IAPH, Genoa, Italy May 2009
“…most ports do not appear to be thinking about, let alone actively preparing to address, the effects of climate change.”
US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009
“The insurance industry is moving from being a passive climate change sufferer that has to sustain some very expensive consequences to becoming a proactive shaper of the future.”
Geneva Association, 2009
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Survey Respondents
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Example
Structures Insured Against Losses
City Zoning
RI Dept. of Transportation
P&W Railroad
US Army Corps
US Coast Guard
RI Emergency Management Agency
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Example
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PORT OF PROVIDENCE
win
d
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Future Work/Next Steps
www.seaports2100.org
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Case Studies
What makes a resilient port?
How have past storms led to long-term changes in port planning?
How do ports work with government to
http://www.portoflosangeles.org