ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK

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Dr. Sanjayan Velautham ASEAN Center for Energy

Presented at:APERC Annual Conference 2017

16-17 May 2017Tokyo, Japan

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

ASEAN – A community of opportunities

Source: ASEAN Secretariat.

ASEAN ENERGY BLUEPRINT - THE APAEC 2016-2025

3

Renewable Energy

ASEAN Power Grid

Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline

Coal and Clean Coal Technology

Energy Eff. and Conservation

Regional Energy Policy and Planning

Civilian Nuclear Energy

“Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve

Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All”

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

41%

9%12%

18%

8%

12%

1990 – 237 MTOE

40%

13%10%

19%

8%

10%

2000 – 385 MTOE

35%

15%9%

21%

11%

9%

2015 – 635 MTOE

Historical Comparison Total Primary Energy Supply – Countrywise

Sources : ACE Database, as of 2017.

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

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200

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Mto

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Coal Oil Natural GasNuclear Hydro GeothermalOther RE Trad Biomass Others

ASEAN Energy Outlook

Projected Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2015 - 2040

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

0

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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Total Primary Energy Supply – SCENARIOS

Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) AMS Target Scenario (ATS) AMS Progressive Scenario (APS)

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040M

toe

ASEAN Energy Outlook

Projected Total Final Energy Consumption 2015 - 2040

0%

10%

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100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Industry Transport ResidentialCommercial Others Non Energy Uses

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

0%

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ASEAN Energy Outlook

Projected Installed Power Capacity (BAU) 2015 - 2040

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy

Installed Power Capacity for Renewable Energy :

48 GW

Renewable Energy

23%Non-renewable Energy77 %

203 GW

Renewable Energy

21%

Non-renewable Energy

79%930TWh

Power Generation for Renewable Energy197 TWh

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ASEAN Energy OutlookInstalled Power Capacity 2015

One Community

for Sustainable

Energy• ASEAN energy will grow 3.9% per year into 2040 – much higher than the expected world average 1%.

• Country’s contribution is changed but 5 major AMS continue dominating the energy demand.

• Continues to rely on fossil fuels – but EE will reduce 18-28% demand by 2040.

• Industry and transport as main driver for the energy consumption – high potential for EE saving.

• Today’s installed capacity dominated by natural gas – outstrip by coal in the next 5 years, and RE will also grow fast.

Conclusion