asia oil & gas - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/res/cn_res/indus/2012/9/24/a0a6c8… · ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
ASIA Oil & Gas
Inside Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big deal? 2 Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations 11 Crude Oil Price & Differentials 13 Asia Refining Margins & Cracks 14 China Oil Demand, Production & Imports 16 China Gas Demand, Production & Imports 20 Singapore Oil Product Inventories 21 US Oil Demand & Inventories 22 Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation 23 Global Oil Supply-Demand 25 China Gas Supply-Demand 26 Global LNG Supply-Demand 27
Asia Most Preferred CNOOC (OP, TP: HK$21.0) – MarQuee Buy List Kunlun (OP, TP: HK$14.5) PTTGC (OP, TP: Bt79.0) Inpex (OP, TP: Y720,000) BPCL (OP, TP: Rs. 457.0)
Asia Least Preferred Sinopec (N, TP: HK$7.1) COSL (UP, TP: HK$10.4) Petronet LNG (UP, TP: Rs.122.0) FCFC (UP, TP: NT$56.5)
Macquarie Capital Securities Limited James Hubbard, CFA +852 3922 1226 [email protected] Aditya Suresh, CFA +852 3922 1265 [email protected] Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited Trevor Buchinski, CFA +66 2 694 7829 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd Jal Irani +91 22 6720 4080 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities Limited, Taiwan Branch Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited Polina Diyachkina +81 3 3512 7886 [email protected] Macquarie Securities Korea Limited Brandon I Lee +82 2 3705 8669 [email protected]
24 September 2012
Asia Oil & Gas Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big deal?
Singapore GRM’s remain strong
Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w)
and remained near the top-end of the 5Y range; with strength in gasoline
($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w) more
than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w). The
strength was in-part driven by the $3.9/bbl decline in Brent prices during the
week (weak PMI in China, Europe; weak US jobs data).
China GRM’s – spot margins turn positive
Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -
$2.5/bbl in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude
prices during the week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl
EBIT breakeven levels) – IF sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec (see
chart of the week below).
CNOOC-Nexen – What’s the big deal?
CNOOC’s July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of
Canada’s Nexen is progressing through the approval process. Ultimately we
believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will go ahead,
essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would
add 22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past
Sinopec) and improve its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%).
Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-the-parts valuation would stay almost
unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent resource offers significant
value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh). We raise our
target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.
Chart of the week: Spot GRMs now above EBIT breakeven
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
MacQ China GRM
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
($/bbl)
5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave 2011
2012 Implied Fwd Margin EBIT Breakeven
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 2
Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big deal? Brent declined by $3.9/bbl on average and ended the week at $112.3/bbl mainly on
weak PMI data in China and Europe - HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8;
Markit Euro-area PMI dropped to 45.9 (cons. 46.6) in September (14th consecutive month
below 50); and in US weekly jobless claims were higher than consensus expectations.
Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w) with
strength in gasoline ($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w)
more than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w).
Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -$2.5/bbl
in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude prices during the
week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl EBIT breakeven levels) –
if sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec shares.
In petchems, our benchmark NCC margin witnessed a big w/w increase (+18%) to end at
$270/t; mainly driven by the 6% decline in Naphtha prices during the week (on lower crude
prices).
Fig 1 Asia Oils 1W Share Performance Fig 2 Asia Oils 2012 Share Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Asia Oils 1W Performance
6.7%
6.4%
5.6%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.3%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.3%
-4.3%
-4.6%
-4.5%
-1.8%
-1.7%
-0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
2.7%
Inpex Corp
RIL
JX Holdings
ONGC
Aban Offshore
Japan Petroleum
Petrochina
PTT E&P
Cairn India
Bangchak
NPC
COSL
PTT Global
CNOOC
PTT
FCFC
MSCI Asia (ex Japan)
GDG
Oil India
IOCL
Esso Thailand
FPC
Kunlun
Sinopec
Petronet LNG
Woodside
BPCL
Oil Search
Thai Oil
HPCL
Santos
S-Oil
SK Innovation
Caltex
Brent
GS Holdings
Asia Oils 2012 YTD Performance
45%
34%
31%
30%
26%
23%
21%
19%
18%
15%
15%
12%
11%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-49%
-12%
4%
5%
9%
13%
16%
24%
BPCL
Caltex
GS Holdings
Bangchak
Aban Offshore
Kunlun
RIL
Oil Search
SK Innovation
HPCL
CNOOC
ONGC
Thai Oil
MSCI Asia (ex Japan)
Woodside
Cairn India
COSL
Jpn Petro
PTT
Petronet LNG
PTT Global
Petrochina
S-Oil
Brent
FPC
Esso Thailand
Inpex Corp
Oil India
IOCL
FCFC
NPC
Santos
PTT E&P
JX Holdings
Sinopec
GDG
Key Macquarie Research
Taiwan petchems – prolonged weak
end-demand (4 Sept)
Asian Refining - Near-term trade;
medium-term played (24 Aug)
Offshore China – A glass still three-
quarters full (30 Jul)
China Oils – Downstream Blues (03 Jul)
Global Oil – A more gradual path to
$115/bbl (11 Jun)
For those seeking defensive oil names
(08 Jun)
The Chinese NGV (R)Evolution (22 May)
China Oil & Gas - “The Three Sisters”
(21 Oct)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 3
What’s new in the region?
CNOOC – Nexen – What’s the big deal? (James Hubbard, 24 Sept): CNOOC’s (883 HK,
OP, TP: HK$21.0) July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of Canada’s
Nexen (NXY CN, N, TP: C$27.50, analyst Chris Feltin) is progressing through the approval
process. Ultimately we believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will
go ahead, essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would add
22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past Sinopec) and improve
its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%). Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-
the-parts valuation would stay almost unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent
resource offers significant value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh).
We raise our target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.
ONGC – Mumbai High-er (Jal Irani, 24 Sept): We took a group of institutional investors to
ONGC’s (ONGC IN, OP, TP: Rs. 325) Mumbai High field 3D virtual reality room/geological
centre, which oversees ~40% of India’s oil/gas production, and almost all of ONGC’s offshore
operations. We believe that through quick monetization of the recent large D-1 find and
developing marginal fields in the basin, ONGC is firmly poised to reverse its sliding oil output
starting as early as FY14E. Maintain Outperform.
Japan PowerGen Series – upstream oil and gas alert (Polina Diyachkina, 18 Sept): The
Japanese government has decided to promote a 'zero-nuclear' policy by 2030s; our base
case has been for 10% nuclear vs 25% pre quake. Most of nuclear will be replaced by gas-
fired power plants, but there is also scope for an increase in alternative energy and coal-fired
power plants. Clear beneficiaries of the zero-nuclear policy are LNG plays – Inpex and Mitsui.
On the capex front, LNG engineering companies Chiyoda and JGC as well as MHI, Toshiba
and Hitachi would also benefit from both overseas LNG projects and a build-up of domestic
gas and coal-fired power plants.
PTTEP – Capital issuance clarity approaching (Trevor Buchinski, 19 Sept): On August
23, PTTEP (PTTEP TB, N, TP: Bt 165.0) delayed a shareholder vote on a proposed
US$3.1bn capital issuance. PTTEPs board is expected to decide on a new structure over the
next 10 days. Our NAV analysis that suggests fair value for PTTEP is closer to Bt200/sh.
Nevertheless and against our base case expectation we believe parent company PTT offers a
better risk/reward proposition.
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 4
Asia Refining Summary
Fig 3 MacQ China GRM Fig 4 Singapore Complex GRM
Fig 5 Korea Complex GRM Fig 6 China vs. S'pore GRM
Fig 7 Asia Refining Margins Summary
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Singapore GRM based on LPG 3%, Naphtha 7%, Gasoline 32%, Diesel 16%, Jet 19%, FO & Others 23%. China GRM based on - Diesel 0.30, Gasoline 0.20, Fuel Oil 0.09, LPG 0.02, Naphtha 0.02 using a regression analysis.
MacQ China GRM
-20.0
-12.0
-4.0
4.0
12.0
20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
($/bbl)
MQ China GRM 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2011 2012 Fwd Margin
Singapore Complex GRM
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
($/bbl)
Sing GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
2011 2012
Korea Complex GRM
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
($/bbl)
Korea GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
2011 2012
China vs. S'pore GRM
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Jan-1
0
Mar-
10
May-1
0
Jul-10
Sep-1
0
No
v-1
0
Jan-1
1
Mar-
11
May-1
1
Jul-11
Sep-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jan-1
2
Mar-
12
May-1
2
Jul-12
Sep-1
2
($/bbl)
Delta China GRM Singapore GRM
Macquarie Research
Asia Refining Summary
21-Sep 14-Sep 07-Sep 31-Aug Jul-12 Jul-11 Y-o-Y % 3Q12TD 2Q12 %chg 2012-TD 2011 %chg
Crude Price & Differentials
Brent ($/bbl) 111.9 115.8 114.1 113.8 103.1 116.5 -11% 109.6 108.6 1% 112.4 111.1 1%
Dubai ($/bbl) 109.7 113.8 111.9 110.1 99.2 110.0 -10% 105.8 106.0 0% 109.4 106.1 3%
WTI ($/bbl) 93.7 97.6 95.8 95.7 87.9 97.2 -10% 92.1 93.1 -1% 96.1 95.1 1%
Duri ($/bbl) 112.0 116.1 114.6 115.2 108.9 123.3 -12% 112.3 112.0 0% 116.3 116.2 0%
Cinta ($/bbl) 113.8 117.9 116.4 116.5 108.7 125.0 -13% 113.2 113.1 0% 117.1 117.3 0%
Duri - Brent ($/bbl) 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 5.7 6.8 -16% 2.7 3.4 -22% 3.9 5.1 -24%
Arab Light - Heavy ($/bbl) 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.4 4.1 -41% 2.5 3.2 -23% 2.8 4.1 -32%
Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 15.3 19.3 -21% 17.4 15.5 13% 16.3 16.0 1%
GRM
Macquarie China GRM ($/bbl) 8.5 7.5 5.5 5.6 (2.0) 0.2 NM 3.4 (2.5) NM 1.0 1.0 -2%
Macquarie China GRM (RMB/t) 410 361 268 272 (95) 8 NM 166 (122) NM 48 51 -7%
Singapore Complex GRM ($/bbl) 8.7 8.4 8.7 9.8 7.6 8.3 -9% 8.8 6.1 43% 7.5 7.6 -2%
Korea Complex GRM ($/bbl) 7.2 7.1 8.3 8.9 6.0 7.0 -15% 7.2 4.4 63% 5.9 6.8 -12%
China Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl) 15.7 14.1 9.8 10.0 (1.1) 2.1 NM 7.0 (2.3) NM 2.8 2.8 1%
Diesel ($/bbl) 27.3 25.7 20.2 20.4 8.9 12.5 -29% 17.4 9.1 91% 13.5 12.9 5%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (21.2) (23.0) (18.6) (18.8) (34.0) (32.6) -4% (24.4) (38.4) 57% (28.5) (27.8) -2%
Singapore Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl) 15.4 14.8 12.2 15.2 14.4 16.4 -12% 16.0 14.2 12% 14.8 13.8 8%
Naphtha ($/bbl) (6.5) (4.7) (3.7) (4.1) (8.4) (3.6) -57% (6.6) (8.8) 35% (6.6) (3.7) -44%
Diesel ($/bbl) 19.7 18.7 21.2 22.7 17.8 18.4 -3% 19.5 15.6 25% 17.2 18.4 -7%
Jet Fuel ($/bbl) 21.2 21.4 23.2 22.9 18.4 19.1 -4% 20.4 16.2 26% 17.4 19.5 -11%
LPG ($/bbl) (23.5) (21.8) (22.0) (27.6) (38.0) (40.9) 8% (31.5) (45.1) 43% (34.9) (36.9) 6%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (5.8) (6.7) (5.5) (5.2) (4.0) (5.1) 28% (5.0) (3.8) -24% (3.6) (5.2) 45%
Week Month Quarter Year
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 5
Asia Petchems Summary
Fig 8 NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) margin – sharp w/w pick-up assisted by fall in naphtha prices
Fig 9 Ethylene-Naphtha spread
Fig 10 PP-Naphtha spread Fig 11 HDPE-Naphtha spread
Fig 12 PX-Naphtha Fig 13 PVC-EDC spread
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
NCC Margins
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
$/ton
NCC Margin Range 2007-11 Avg2011 2012
Ethylene - Naphtha
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
$/ton
Ethylene-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012
PP - Naphtha
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
$/ton
PP-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012
HDPE - Naphtha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
$/ton
HDPE-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012
PX-Naphtha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
$/ton
PX-Naphtha Range 2007-10 Avg
2011 2012
PVC - EDC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
$/ton
PVC-EDC Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 6
Fig 14 Asia Petchems Summary
Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 7
Macro – from bad to a bit worse
Fig 15 OECD LI
Fig 16 China GDP estimates – 2012 on a downward trajectory
Fig 17 Unemployment rate – relatively stable Fig 18 Manufacturing PMI – China, US, Euro in contraction mode
Fig 19 China PMI breakdown
Fig 20 China Industrial Production – remains at c.9% for a fourth consecutive month (avg. 15% 2005-11)
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
OECD LI
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
(Y-o-Y)
G7 Composite US China Eurozone
China GDP
7.5
7.8
8.1
8.4
8.7
9.0
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Y-o-Y %
2012 2013
Unemployment Rate
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
%
China Korea Japan
Manufacturing PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
US China Eurozone
China PMI
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
New Export Orders Finished Goods
Raw Materials
China Industrial Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec-
06
Jun-
07
Dec-
07
Jun-
08
Dec-
08
Jun-
09
Dec-
09
Jun-
10
Dec-
10
Jun-
11
Dec-
11
Jun-
12
% (Y-o-Y)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 8
Fig 21 China consumer confidence index Fig 22 China real estate climate index
Fig 23 China textile production
Fig 24 Taiwan computers and electronics manufacturing index
Fig 25 China passenger car sales Fig 26 China tyre output
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
China consumer confidence index
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
China Real Estate Climate Index
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
China Textile Production
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Jan-
10
Apr-
10
Jul-
10
Oct-
10
Jan-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-
12
Y-o-Y %
Yarn Cloth Garment Polyester
Taiwan Computers & Electronics
Manufacturing Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
Index
(2006=100)
China Passenger Car Sales
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
mn
7Y Range Avg (2005-11)
2010 2011 2012
China Tyre Output
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
mn
7Y Range Avg (2005-11) 2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 9
Oil – Commitment of Traders (COT) Summary
Fig 27 Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price Fig 28 Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund category covers large speculators or CFTC’s “non-commercial positions”
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Hedge category covers oil industry traders or CFTC’s “commercial positions”
Fig 29 Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price Fig 30 Open Interest (futures + options) vs. Oil Price
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund category covers small speculators or CFTC’s “non-reportable positions”
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
(klots)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
($/bbl)
Speculators (LHS) Oil Price (RHS)
Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Jan-1
0
Mar-
10
May-1
0
Jul-10
Sep-1
0
No
v-1
0
Jan-1
1
Mar-
11
May-1
1
Jul-11
Sep-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jan-1
2
Mar-
12
May-1
2
Jul-12
(klots)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
WTI $/bbl
Hedge Net Positions (LHS) WTI (RHS)
Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Speculators Net
Position (klots)
0
35
70
105
140
175WTI ($/bbl)
Speculators (Net Position) WTI (RHS)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Open Interest
(klots)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160WTI $/bbl
Open Interest WTI (RHS)
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
30 J
an
uary
20
12
10
Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations Fig 31 Asia Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie Research
Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational MetricsMarket
Company Local Price Mcap Reco. Target Upside
Curr (local) (US$ bn) Price 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E
HANG SENG INDEX 20,626 1,551 10.1 x 9.1 x
PetroChina HKD 10.0 240.3 Outperform 12.0 +19.8% 5.3 x 5.0 x 10.8 x 8.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.9% 4.8% -8.9% 4.3% 10.2% 10.6% 27.0% 26.0%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 80.3 Neutral 7.1 +0.6% 4.1 x 3.2 x 9.2 x 6.5 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.7% 3.8% -9.0% 4.8% 9.5% 11.7% 28.1% 26.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 90.6 Outperform 21.0 +33.4% 4.4 x 4.1 x 8.0 x 7.6 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 20.4% 18.3% 8.6% 5.5%
COSL HKD 13.4 7.8 Underperform 10.4 -22.5% 7.4 x 6.9 x 10.1 x 9.1 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 1.7% 2.1% 4.9% 8.9% 9.1% 9.4% 36.3% 29.3%
Kunlun Energy HKD 13.6 14.2 Outperform 14.5 +6.6% 6.5 x 6.0 x 14.9 x 13.5 x 3.2 x 2.6 x 1.7% 1.8% -7.1% 2.3% 14.4% 14.4% 14.0% 10.1%
Anton HKD 1.9 0.5 Not Rated NM NM 8.9 x 7.0 x 15.7 x 11.2 x
ASX INDEX 4,381.1 1,139.6 11.7 x 10.8 x
Woodside AUD 33.8 29.5 Neutral 37.5 +11.0% 8.2 x 7.1 x 16.5 x 15.5 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.7% 4.1% 5.5% 10.0% 9.8% 10.1% 12.4% 5.6%
Santos AUD 11.4 11.5 Outperform 16.00 +40.8% 5.6 x 4.8 x 20.2 x 17.8 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 2.6% 2.6% -18.4% -18.4% 5.2% 5.3% 8.8% 24.9%
Oil Search AUD 7.4 10.6 Outperform 9.0 +21.5% 23.7 x 24.7 x 76.2 x 73.2 x 3.3 x 3.2 x 0.5% 0.5% -5.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 43.4% 45.5%
Caltex AUD 15.5 4.4 Neutral 16.0 +3.1% 7.3 x 6.2 x 12.6 x 10.9 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 2.0% 2.5% -0.4% 1.8% 13.5% 14.1% 29.3% 26.5%
BSE SENSEX INDEX 18,752.8 581.0 13.1 x 11.9 x
RIL INR 850.3 51.4 Neutral 759.0 -10.7% 7.9 x 7.5 x 11.8 x 11.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.1% 18.1% 1.5% 9.7% 9.3% 19.8% 16.2%
ONGC INR 294.5 46.9 Outperform 325.0 +10.4% 3.8 x 4.4 x 9.5 x 9.6 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.3% 3.4% 6.2% 5.7% 19.9% 18.5% -16.2% -18.1%
IOCL INR 252.7 11.5 Outperform 333.0 +31.8% 4.6 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 8.1 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.3% 1.5% 21.6% 27.0% 15.4% 9.6% 41.0% 29.7%
Cairn India INR 349.7 12.5 Neutral 322.0 -7.9% 6.3 x 5.5 x 8.7 x 8.5 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 0.0% 2.6% 3.6% 4.6% 16.4% 14.7% -11.9% -20.7%
BPCL INR 347.3 2.3 Outperform 457.0 +31.6% 12.4 x 7.9 x 30.3 x 12.1 x 1.6 x 1.6 x 1.9% 2.1% -59.7% -34.7% 6.9% 9.8% 65.0% 66.0%
HPCL INR 299.0 1.9 Outperform 412.0 +37.8% 10.9 x 6.4 x 69.1 x 6.5 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 3.3% 5.2% -51.7% 14.9% 5.5% 10.7% 72.7% 70.1%
Petronet LNG INR 165.1 2.3 Underperform 122.0 -26.1% 9.0 x 8.3 x 11.5 x 11.3 x 3.4 x 2.7 x 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% -23.8% 19.8% 16.7% 36.8% 52.7%
Aban Offshore INR 430.4 0.3 Underperform 315.0 -26.8% 7.3 x 5.7 x 7.2 x 6.2 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.8% 0.8% 20.2% 28.3% 8.3% 9.5% 83.5% 81.3%
SET INDEX 1,286.3 340.3 11.7 x 10.4 x
PTT THB 337.0 31.3 Outperform 409.0 +21.4% 4.3 x 3.7 x 7.5 x 6.4 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 4.5% 5.3% 5.4% 8.3% 15.7% 16.7% 26.1% 21.8%
PTT E&P THB 158.0 17.0 Neutral 165.0 +4.4% 4.2 x 3.5 x 9.7 x 8.5 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 3.6% 3.9% -0.4% 4.2% 16.9% 17.6% 25.5% 22.7%
PTT Global Chem THB 64.3 9.4 Outperform 79.0 +23.0% 6.8 x 6.3 x 8.2 x 8.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.2% 4.7% 5.3% 9.4% 11.9% 11.9% 29.8% 26.1%
Thai Oil THB 67.0 4.4 Neutral 66.0 -1.5% 7.5 x 6.1 x 12.3 x 9.0 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 3.6% 5.0% 8.0% 8.1% 9.9% 12.2% 18.6% 14.2%
Bangchak Petro. THB 24.6 1.1 Underperform 18.1 -26.4% 4.6 x 4.5 x 6.6 x 7.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.2% 4.9% 13.7% -10.8% 12.6% 11.4% 6.4% 22.7%
NIKKEI INDEX 9,033.3 2,217.0 12.7 x 10.6 x
Inpex Corp JPY 479,000.0 22.3 Outperform 720,000.0 +50.3% 2.0 x 2.1 x 18.6 x 10.1 x 0.7 x 0.9 x 1.4% 1.4% -2.0% -1.4% 5.0% 8.2% 1.6% 10.1%
JX Holdings JPY 433.0 13.9 Outperform 600.0 +38.6% 4.1 x 5.4 x 4.5 x 10.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% -13.5% 8.0% 3.9% 40.4% 43.1%
Japan Petro. Expln JPY 3,165.0 2.3 Outperform 4,600.0 +45.3% 4.4 x 4.9 x 10.3 x 11.3 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 1.3% 1.3% 7.3% -12.3% 4.1% 3.7% -0.9% 4.8%
TWSE Index 7,722.9 723.3 14.1 x 12.4 x
FPCC TWD 87.5 28.7 Underperform 65.0 -25.7% 26.2 x 16.8 x 250.3 x 44.9 x 3.8 x 3.6 x 0.5% 1.9% 3.0% 2.7% 1.6% 5.3% 42.0% 37.2%
FPC TWD 82.8 17.5 Neutral 68.5 -17.3% 17.2 x 15.0 x 28.7 x 21.6 x 2.1 x 2.0 x 2.5% 3.1% 5.1% 2.7% 5.9% 7.6% 4.3% 5.8%
NPC TWD 57.6 15.7 Neutral 50.0 -13.2% 28.5 x 14.9 x 56.0 x 19.3 x 1.7 x 1.6 x 1.2% 3.5% 5.1% 4.2% 2.6% 6.5% 20.5% 17.5%
FCFC TWD 77.7 15.3 Underperform 56.5 -27.3% 19.3 x 13.3 x 38.2 x 20.0 x 1.8 x 1.7 x 1.7% 3.3% 2.9% 4.6% 3.8% 6.6% 14.0% 11.3%
KOSPI INDEX 1,981.8 1,002.5 9.3 x 8.1 x
SK Innovation KRW 164,000.0 13.9 Outperform 222,000.0 +35.4% 6.9 x 6.5 x 10.2 x 7.6 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 1.7% 1.7% 6.3% 3.7% 7.6% 8.9% 19.6% 14.9%
S-Oil KRW 103,000.0 10.6 Neutral 105,000.0 +1.9% 9.8 x 7.7 x 13.0 x 8.8 x 2.2 x 1.9 x 2.8% 4.3% 9.7% 14.1% 10.6% 14.5% 28.7% 14.6%
GS Holdings KRW 65,000.0 5.5 Neutral 67,000.0 +3.1% 6.0 x 4.8 x 9.3 x 7.4 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 2.1% 2.2% 13.1% 10.6% 8.3% 9.3% 14.6% 4.8%
Honam KRW 255,000.0 7.5 Outperform 320,000.0 +25.5% 8.0 x 5.0 x 16.7 x 8.7 x 1.4 x 1.2 x 0.7% 0.7% -3.7% 6.6% 7.0% 12.2% 11.2% 4.1%
LG Chem KRW 323,000.0 19.5 Outperform 400,000.0 +23.8% 8.0 x 6.6 x 14.0 x 11.1 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 0.4% 13.1% 14.5% 6.9% 7.1%
Hanwha Chem KRW 21,850.0 2.8 Neutral 20,000.0 -8.5% 11.5 x 7.6 x 21.9 x 8.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 2.0% 2.0% -18.4% -9.3% 2.8% 5.3% 49.6% 49.0%
HK/China 433.7 +17.9% 5.0 x 4.6 x 10.1 x 8.2 x 1.4 x 1.2 x 3.1% 4.1% -6.0% 4.3% 12.3% 12.5% 23.1% 21.3%
Australia 56.0 +18.5% 10.5 x 9.9 x 28.2 x 26.5 x 2.1 x 2.0 x 2.8% 3.0% -1.9% 1.9% 7.8% 8.0% 18.8% 18.7%
India 129.1 +2.1% 6.1 x 6.0 x 11.3 x 10.2 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.0% 2.2% 10.0% 4.8% 14.6% 13.4% 7.6% 3.9%
Thailand 63.2 +14.6% 4.9 x 4.2 x 8.5 x 7.4 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 4.1% 4.8% 4.1% 7.0% 15.0% 15.8% 25.6% 22.1%
Japan 38.5 +45.8% 2.9 x 3.4 x 13.0 x 10.4 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% -6.4% 6.0% 6.4% 15.4% 21.6%
Taiwan 77.2 -21.6% 23.3 x 15.3 x 118.5 x 29.4 x 2.6 x 2.5 x 1.3% 2.8% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 6.4% 23.5% 20.9%
Korea 30.0 +17.7% 8.1 x 6.5 x 13.2 x 9.1 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.7% 1.9% 4.0% 4.9% 9.7% 12.0% 17.0% 11.6%
APAC 827.7 +12.8% 7.3 x 6.1 x 21.7 x 11.8 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 2.7% 3.5% -0.8% 3.9% 11.3% 11.7% 20.1% 18.1%
21 September 12
EV/EBITDA Ratio ROACE GearingFCF YieldDividend YieldP/B RatioP/E Ratio
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
30 J
an
uary
20
12
11
Fig 32 Asia Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie Research
Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics
Company Local Price Target Upside Cons. Macq. vs.
Curr (local) Price 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD 2011A 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E TP Cons.
HANG SENG INDEX +3.2% +7.6% -0.6% +10.2% +12.5%
PetroChina HKD 10.02 12.0 +19.8% +3.2% -2.7% -8.8% +7.7% +5.3% 0.73 0.71 0.88 -2.1% +23.7% 0.75 0.83 -5.3% +6.2% 11.4 5.5%
Sinopec HKD 7.06 7.1 +0.6% -3.2% +2.6% -16.7% -5.2% -12.1% 0.85 0.62 0.88 -26.6% +41.3% 0.69 0.86 -9.4% +2.8% 8.1 -12.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.74 21.0 +33.4% +4.2% +5.1% -5.9% +21.5% +15.9% 1.57 1.49 1.58 -5.1% +6.0% 1.45 1.44 +3.1% +9.8% 17.2 21.8%
COSL HKD 13.42 10.4 -22.5% +6.0% +20.9% +16.5% +32.7% +9.3% 0.90 1.05 1.16 +16.9% +10.8% 1.03 1.17 +1.7% -0.1% 14.5 -28.5%
Kunlun Energy HKD 13.60 14.5 +6.6% +4.9% +8.2% -1.4% +23.4% +23.9% 0.78 0.91 1.01 +16.6% +10.4% 0.90 1.06 +1.2% -5.1% 16.0 -9.5%
Anton HKD 1.86 NM NM +18.8% +63.8% +91.9% +134.6% +120.9% 0.10 0.14 2.2
ASX INDEX +0.6% +7.8% +3.6% +8.3% +8.7%
Woodside AUD 33.78 37.5 +11.0% -5.1% +6.5% -2.1% +1.4% +11.5% 2.09 2.20 2.35 +5.7% +6.6% 2.52 2.66 -12.4% -11.6% 39.0 -3.9%
Santos AUD 11.36 16.00 +40.8% -4.7% -0.7% -20.1% +0.0% -6.1% 0.50 0.58 0.69 +14.0% +19.5% 0.61 0.59 -5.8% +16.4% 15.0 6.4%
Oil Search AUD 7.41 9.0 +21.5% +5.7% +14.9% +9.4% +26.2% +21.1% 0.18 0.10 0.11 -41.3% +4.7% 0.13 0.12 -17.9% -11.3% 8.7 3.1%
Caltex AUD 15.52 16.0 +3.1% +1.3% +19.5% +12.5% +47.3% +33.6% 0.98 1.29 1.55 +32.3% +19.5% 1.35 1.35 -4.0% +15.0% 14.9 7.3%
BSE SENSEX INDEX +4.9% +10.1% +6.5% +9.9% +21.3%
RIL INR 850.30 759.0 -10.7% +4.4% +18.3% +10.7% +1.5% +22.7% 73.80 66.75 67.54 -9.6% +1.2% 62.29 67.07 +7.2% +0.7% 798.2 -4.9%
ONGC INR 294.50 325.0 +10.4% +2.6% +7.0% +8.5% +12.8% +14.8% 10.31 29.22 29.61 NM +1.3% 30.65 33.03 -4.7% -10.4% 312.2 4.1%
IOCL INR 252.70 333.0 +31.8% +0.3% -3.5% -6.6% -18.0% -0.4% 32.25 49.15 31.29 +52.4% -36.3% 29.31 33.25 +67.7% -5.9% 294.3 13.2%
Cairn India INR 349.65 322.0 -7.9% +5.4% +7.2% -2.0% +17.3% +11.3% 33.04 39.13 40.24 +18.4% +2.8% 54.48 50.34 -28.2% -20.1% 373.2 -13.7%
BPCL INR 347.30 457.0 +31.6% +2.5% -9.0% -0.1% +4.7% +45.4% 22.61 11.53 28.94 -49.0% NM 20.26 24.85 -43.1% +16.4% 392.7 16.4%
HPCL INR 299.00 412.0 +37.8% -4.2% -11.0% +0.6% -19.2% +18.2% 51.22 4.50 47.53 -91.2% NM 32.19 43.04 -86.0% +10.4% 346.9 18.8%
Petronet LNG INR 165.10 122.0 -26.1% +10.0% +21.2% +2.2% -7.2% +6.0% 8.26 14.10 14.24 +70.7% +1.0% 14.08 15.13 +0.1% -5.9% 173.7 -29.8%
Aban Offshore INR 430.40 315.0 -26.8% +1.5% +22.0% -8.4% +10.2% +25.6% 107.26 58.52 68.58 -45.4% +17.2% 81.94 85.54 -28.6% -19.8% 447.0 -29.5%
SET INDEX +4.4% +11.0% +6.5% +24.9% +25.4%
PTT THB 337.00 409.0 +21.4% -1.2% +5.0% -4.8% +8.0% +6.0% 36.86 43.68 51.47 +18.5% +17.8% 38.82 43.79 +12.5% +17.5% 378.0 8.2%
PTT E&P THB 158.00 165.0 +4.4% +3.6% -6.5% -11.2% -2.8% -6.2% 13.63 15.54 17.62 +14.0% +13.4% 15.93 17.96 -2.4% -1.9% 171.6 -3.8%
PTT Global Chem THB 64.25 79.0 +23.0% +0.0% +14.2% -11.4% +19.0% +5.3% 4.05 7.41 7.57 NM +2.2% 6.39 7.27 +16.0% +4.2% 71.1 11.1%
Thai Oil THB 67.00 66.0 -1.5% -0.4% +13.6% -7.6% +11.2% +14.5% 7.45 5.44 7.41 -27.0% +36.2% 7.40 6.59 -26.4% +12.5% 69.1 -4.5%
Bangchak Petro. THB 24.60 18.1 -26.4% +7.0% +5.1% +5.6% +20.6% +30.2% 5.40 3.54 3.02 -34.4% -14.7% 2.68 3.33 +32.1% -9.2% 24.4 -25.9%
NIKKEI INDEX -0.5% +3.2% -9.7% +4.2% +7.7%
Inpex Corp JPY 479,000 720,000 +50.3% +2.1% +5.3% -13.2% -3.8% +0.7% 37,355 23,971 43,979 -35.8% +83.5% 48,497 42,135 -50.6% +4.4% 709,273 1.5%
JX Holdings JPY 433.00 600.0 +38.6% +5.8% +5.3% -16.8% -4.6% -6.5% 127.50 89.70 38.16 -29.6% -57.5% 43.15 64.54 NM -40.9% 533.8 12.4%
Japan Petro. Expln JPY 3,165.00 4,600.0 +45.3% -0.2% +2.9% -18.5% +3.9% +6.1% 248.07 292.49 264.31 +17.9% -9.6% 286.22 290.00 +2.2% -8.9% 4,121.4 11.6%
TWSE Index +3.3% +6.5% -2.8% +2.9% +9.7%
FPCC TWD 87.50 65.0 -25.7% -2.6% +6.9% -5.1% +4.3% -5.9% 2.00 0.34 1.87 -83.2% NM 1.43 3.39 -76.6% -44.8% 72.4 -10.3%
FPC TWD 82.80 68.5 -17.3% -0.5% +4.9% -3.9% +1.5% +3.6% 5.73 2.85 3.80 -50.2% +33.2% 3.94 5.50 -27.5% -30.9% 79.8 -14.1%
NPC TWD 57.60 50.0 -13.2% -0.5% +4.6% -10.4% -14.2% -2.3% 2.87 0.98 2.85 -65.8% NM 1.87 3.40 -47.6% -16.3% 54.9 -9.0%
FCFC TWD 77.70 56.5 -27.3% -3.7% -0.8% -6.6% -4.1% -1.1% 5.68 1.99 3.80 -64.9% +90.9% 3.32 5.25 -40.0% -27.6% 76.4 -26.0%
KOSPI INDEX +3.0% +6.0% -1.2% +8.0% +9.7%
SK Innovation KRW 164,000 222,000 +35.4% +0.0% +16.6% -1.5% -0.9% +18.7% 33,778 16,521 22,020 -51.1% +33.3% 18,077 21,169 -8.6% +4.0% 195,900 13.3%
S-Oil KRW 103,000 105,000 +1.9% -2.8% +12.2% -11.0% -13.9% +5.0% 10,158 8,090 11,971 -20.4% +48.0% 8,794 11,392 -8.0% +5.1% 119,552 -12.2%
GS Holdings KRW 65,000 67,000 +3.1% +2.2% +20.1% +2.3% -6.6% +30.6% 8,143 7,210 9,150 -11.5% +26.9% 6,774 8,384 +6.4% +9.1% 73,970 -9.4%
Honam KRW 255,000 320,000 +25.5% +2.9% +11.2% -16.1% -28.5% -11.9% 31,081 14,602 28,107 -53.0% +92.5% 24,155 35,269 -39.5% -20.3% 296,586 7.9%
LG Chem KRW 323,000 400,000 +23.8% +3.1% +14.2% -10.5% -6.3% +3.8% 28,512 21,971 27,692 -22.9% +26.0% 26,688 33,405 -17.7% -17.1% 383,185 4.4%
Hanwha Chem KRW 21,850 20,000 -8.5% +3.2% +6.4% -15.3% -27.7% -8.5% 1,789 936 2,298 -47.7% NM 1,816 1,720 -48.5% +33.6% 21,529 -7.1%
HK/China +17.9% +2.4% +0.8% -8.8% +9.3% +5.1% -6.3% +22.6% -4.0% +5.9% +4.5%
Australia +18.5% -2.5% +7.6% -2.5% +9.4% +11.5% +0.6% +9.9% -11.4% -3.7% +0.4%
India +2.1% +3.4% +10.3% +6.6% +5.0% +16.7% +1.5% -1.9% +2.3% -5.7% -0.7%
Thailand +14.6% +0.5% +3.9% -7.5% +7.2% +3.6% +10.4% +15.0% +6.6% +9.5% +3.9%
Japan +45.8% +3.3% +5.2% -14.8% -3.6% -1.5% -30.3% +27.0% -29.1% -12.7% +6.1%
Taiwan -21.6% -1.9% +4.5% -6.2% -1.8% -2.1% -68.6% +25.6% -52.3% -32.4% -14.0%
Korea +19.4% +1.2% +14.2% -8.2% -10.2% +7.4% -32.9% +38.8% -15.8% -3.9% +2.2%
APAC +12.9% +1.7% +4.0% -5.9% +6.1% +6.3% -11.2% +18.4% -8.8% -1.1% +1.6%
21 September 12
Absolute Performance EPS (local) Macq. vs. ConsEPS growth Cons EPS (local)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 12
Crude Oil Price & Differentials
Fig 33 Global crude benchmarks Fig 34 Crude Differentials
Fig 35 Brent forward curve at c.$95-100/bbl long-term Fig 36 Crude price summary
21-Sept
14-Sept
3Q12TD
2Q12 Q/Q
%chg
Brent ($/bbl) 111.9 115.8 109.6 108.6 1%
Dubai ($/bbl) 109.7 113.8 105.8 106.0 0%
WTI ($/bbl) 93.7 97.6 92.1 93.1 -1%
Duri ($/bbl) 112.0 116.1 112.3 112.0 0%
Minas ($/bbl) 113.8 117.9 113.2 113.1 0%
Duri - Brent ($/bbl) 0.1 0.2 2.7 3.4 -22%
Arab Light - Heavy ($/bbl)
2.8 2.8 2.5 3.2 -23%
Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 18.2 18.2 17.4 15.5 13%
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012.
China Crude Basket
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
De
c-0
9
Feb-1
0
Apr-
10
Jun-1
0
Aug-1
0
Oct-
10
De
c-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jun-1
1
Aug-1
1
Oct-
11
De
c-1
1
Feb-1
2
Apr-
12
Jun-1
2
Aug-1
2
$/bbl
Brent Dubai Cinta WTI China Crude Basket
Crude differentials
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
De
c-0
9
Feb-1
0
Apr-
10
Jun-1
0
Aug-1
0
Oct-
10
De
c-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jun-1
1
Aug-1
1
Oct-
11
De
c-1
1
Feb-1
2
Apr-
12
Jun-1
2
Aug-1
2
$/bbl
Brent-Urals Duri-Brent Arab Light-Heavy Brent-WTI
Brent Forward Curve
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Jan-1
0
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
($/bbl)
Spot T-1 month
T-3 months T-1 year
At 2008 peak ($145/bbl) At 2008 trough ($35/bbl)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 13
Asia Refining Margins & Cracks
Fig 37 China GRM’s – underlying spot margins turn above EBIT breakeven
Fig 38 MacQ China GRM vs. Sinopec GRM
Fig 39 China regulated ex-factory product price vs. Dubai
Fig 40 Diesel Price: China ex-factory vs. Singapore
Fig 41 China vs. S’pore gasoline price Fig 42 China fuel oil well below Singapore
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
MacQ China GRM
-20.0
-12.0
-4.0
4.0
12.0
20.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
($/bbl)
MQ China GRM 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2011 2012 Fwd Margin
MacQ China GRM vs Sinopec Reported
-1200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1Q
07
3Q
07
1Q
08
3Q
08
1Q
09
3Q
09
1Q
10
3Q
10
1Q
11
3Q
11
1Q
12
Rmb/t
MQ China GRM Sinopec Reported GRM
Crude vs Regulated Pdt Price
30
60
90
120
150
Jan-0
6
Apr-
06
Jul-06
Oct-
06
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-07
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-08
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
$/bbl
Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Dubai Crude
China (ex-factory) vs S'pore Diesel Prices
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
$/bbl
China Diesel S'pore Diesel (FOB)
China vs S'pore Gasoline Prices
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
$/bbl
China Gasoline S'pore Gasoline (FOB)
China vs S'pore Fuel Oil Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
$/bbl
China Fuel Oil S'pore Fuel Oil (FOB)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 14
Fig 43 China product cracks Fig 44 Singapore product cracks
Fig 45 Singapore complex GRM – robust and at the top end of the 5Y range
Fig 46 China vs. Singapore GRM
Fig 47 Asia refinery maintenance Fig 48 Major Asia CDU additions in 2012
Company Refinery Type Location Capacity
(kb/d) Timing
Essar Oil CDU expansion Vadinar 80 2Q12
MRPL CDU expansion Mangalore 64 3Q12
HPCL Grassroots refinery
Bhatinda 180 2Q12
PetroChina CDU expansion Hohhot,Inner Mongolia
100 3Q12
Sinopec CDU expansion Anqing 80 4Q12
Sinopec Grassroots refinery
Jinling 160 4Q12
2012 Total 664
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
China Product Cracks
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Jan-1
0
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
$/bbl
Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil
Singapore Product Cracks
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
De
c-0
9
Feb-1
0
Apr-
10
Jun-1
0
Aug-1
0
Oct-
10
De
c-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jun-1
1
Aug-1
1
Oct-
11
De
c-1
1
Feb-1
2
Apr-
12
Jun-1
2
Aug-1
2
$/bbl
LPG Naphtha Gasoline
Diesel Jet/Kero Fuel Oil
Singapore Complex GRM
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
($/bbl)
Sing GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
2011 2012
China vs. S'pore GRM
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Jan-1
0
Mar-
10
May-1
0
Jul-10
Sep-1
0
No
v-1
0
Jan-1
1
Mar-
11
May-1
1
Jul-11
Sep-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jan-1
2
Mar-
12
May-1
2
Jul-12
Sep-1
2
($/bbl)
Delta China GRM Singapore GRM
Asia Refinery Maintenance
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-
12
Jun-
12
Jul-
12
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
Oct-
12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
(kb/d)
Range 2010 2011 2012
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
ep
tem
ber 2
01
2
15
China Oil Demand, Production & Imports Fig 49 China Macro Summary
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: apparent consumption = production + net imports
Macquarie Research
China Crude & Refined Products Summary
Jul-12 Jun-12 M-o-M % Jul-11 Y-o-Y % 2Q12 1Q12 %chg 2011 2010 %chg
Apparent Consumption (kb/d)
Crude 9,520 9,086 5% 9,000 6% 9,645 9,806 -2% 9,196 8,918 3%
Total Products 9,837 9,011 9% 9,676 1.7% 9,473 9,979 -5% 9,580 9,005 6%
Gasoline 2,075 1,841 13% 1,770 17% 1,901 1,914 -1% 1,792 1,665 8%
Diesel 3,337 3,145 6% 3,394 -2% 3,314 3,438 -4% 3,342 3,113 7%
Kerosene 422 334 27% 341 24% 353 379 -7% 364 349 4%
Fuel Oil 599 544 10% 551 9% 580 650 -11% 604 619 -2%
Lubricants 222 227 -2% 209 7% 242 240 1% 235 232 2%
Naphtha 661 615 8% 588 13% 673 718 -6% 601 611 -2%
LPG 778 767 1% 763 2% 731 739 -1% 745 702 6%
Petcoke 899 824 9% 724 24% 814 781 4% 728 716 2%
Natural Gas (bcm) 11.3 11.1 2% 10.8 5% 33.6 41.0 -18% 128.9 105.9 22%
Production (kb/d)
Crude 4,194 3,933 7% 4,261 -2% 4,085 4,144 -1% 4,128 4,131 0%
Total Products 9,503 8,800 8% 9,474 0% 9,175 9,583 -4% 9,273 8,797 5%
Gasoline 2,112 1,913 10% 1,856 14% 1,951 2,009 -3% 1,886 1,785 6%
Diesel 3,372 3,139 7% 3,400 -1% 3,314 3,433 -3% 3,334 3,170 5%
Kerosene 415 386 8% 395 5% 403 409 -2% 373 341 9%
Fuel Oil 341 322 6% 319 7% 312 317 -2% 342 381 -10%
Lubricants 191 191 0% 177 8% 200 198 1% 194 190 2%
Naphtha 598 591 1% 549 9% 638 639 0% 556 565 -2%
LPG 692 672 3% 699 -1% 677 716 -5% 695 656 6%
Petcoke 712 684 4% 654 9% 695 650 7% 640 614 4%
Natural Gas (bcm) 8.3 8.2 1% 8.4 -1% 25.0 33.2 -25% 103.3 93.6 10%
Net Imports (kb/d)
Crude 5,326 5,153 3% 4,738 12% 5,560 5,663 -2% 5,067 4,786 6%
Total Products 334 210 59% 202 65% 298 396 -25% 308 207 48%
Gasoline (36) (72) NM (86) NM (49) (96) 94% (94) (121) 29%
Diesel (35) 6 NM (5) -85% 0 5 -98% 8 (57) NM
Kerosene 7 (52) NM (54) NM (49) (29) -40% (9) 8 NM
Fuel Oil 258 222 17% 232 11% 268 332 -19% 262 238 10%
Lubricants 31 35 -12% 32 -1% 43 42 3% 41 42 -1%
Naphtha 64 24 NM 39 NM 34 79 -57% 44 46 -4%
LPG 86 94 -9% 64 33% 54 23 NM 50 46 8%
Petcoke 187 139 34% 70 NM 119 131 -9% 88 103 -14%
LNG (bcm) 1.8 1.6 10% 1.6 13% 4.6 4.4 4% 16.6 12.7 31%
Pipe Gas (bcm) 1.3 1.3 0% 0.8 56% 4.0 3.3 21% 8.9 (0.4) NM
Month Quarter Year
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 16
Fig 50 China apparent consumption y/y% Fig 51 China apparent oil product demand – flat y/y
Fig 52 China crude oil production y/y% Fig 53 China crude oil production – near 2011 levels
Fig 54 China crude oil net imports y/y% Fig 55 China crude oil net imports – at 5Y highs
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Apparent Consumption
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %
Crude Refined Products
Total Pdts Consumption
4,000
5,500
7,000
8,500
10,000
11,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Indigenous Production
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %
Crude Refined Products
Crude Production
3,200
3,550
3,900
4,250
4,600
4,950
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range (06-10) 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Net Imports
-100%
-60%
-20%
20%
60%
100%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %
Crude Refined Products
Crude Net Imports
1,500
2,400
3,300
4,200
5,100
6,000
6,900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range (06-10) 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 17
Fig 56 China diesel apparent consumption y/y%
Fig 57 China diesel consumption – top end; but flat y/y
Fig 58 China gasoline apparent consumption y/y%
Fig 59 China gasoline consumption – the lonely bright spot
Fig 60 China fuel oil apparent consumption y/y% Fig 61 China fuel oil consumption – near 5Y lows
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Diesel Apparent Consumption
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Diesel Consumption
1,800
2,200
2,600
3,000
3,400
3,800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Gasoline Apparent Consumption
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Gasoline Consumption
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range 5Y Ave.
2010 2011 2012
Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption
-35%
-20%
-5%
10%
25%
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Fuel Oil Consumption
-
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(kb/d)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 18
Fig 62 China crude inventories Fig 63 China diesel inventories
Fig 64 China gasoline inventories Fig 65 China kerosene inventories
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
China Crude Oil Inventory
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
Nov-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Aug-1
2
(mt)
China Diesel Inventory
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
No
v-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
No
v-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Aug-1
2
(mt)
China Gasoline Inventory
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
No
v-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
No
v-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Aug-1
2
(mt)China Kerosene Inventory
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
Nov-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Aug-1
2
(mt)
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 19
China Gas Demand, Production & Imports
Fig 66 China gas apparent consumption y/y%
Fig 67 China natural gas apparent consumption – 2012-TD up 17% y/y; despite the slowdown in 2Q
Fig 68 China natural gas production y/y%
Fig 69 China natural gas production – remains flat for a fourth consecutive month
Fig 70 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) y/y%
Fig 71 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) – at record highs on Turkmen vols + imported LNG
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Gas Apparent Consumption
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
Nov-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Gas Apparent Consumption
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(bcm)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Gas Indigenous Production
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
Nov-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Gas Indigenous Production
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(bcm)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jan-1
0F
eb-1
0M
ar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0Jun-1
0Jul-10
Aug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-
10
Nov-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1Jun-1
1Jul-11
Aug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-
11
Nov-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2Jun-1
2Jul-12
Y-o-Y %Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(bcm)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 20
Singapore Oil Product Inventories
Fig 72 S’pore total oil product inventory – near the 5Y average
Fig 73 S’pore middle distillate inventory – bottom end
Fig 74 S’pore light distillate inventory – back below the 5Y average
Fig 75 S’pore fuel oil inventory – above the 5Y average
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
S'pore Total Oil Inventories
10,000
18,000
26,000
34,000
42,000
50,000
58,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb)
Sing Total Oil Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
S'pore Middle Distillate Inventories
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
(kb)
Sing MD Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
S'pore Light Distillate Inventories
5,000
6,500
8,000
9,500
11,000
12,500
14,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb)
Sing LD Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
S'pore Fuel Oil Inventories
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
(kb)
Sing FO Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 21
US Oil Demand & Inventories
Fig 76 US total product dmd – at 5Y lows Fig 77 US crude inventories – at historic highs
Fig 78 US diesel demand – near the 5Y average Fig 79 US diesel inventories – bottom end
Fig 80 US gasoline demand Fig 81 US gasoline inventories
Source for all charts: EIA, Macquarie Research, September 2012
US Total Product Demand
16,000
17,400
18,800
20,200
21,600
23,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb/d)
US Total Pdt Dmd 5Y range 5Y ave.
2010 2011 2012
US crude inventories (ex SPR)
240,000
270,000
300,000
330,000
360,000
390,000
420,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb)
US Crude Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
US Distillate Demand
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb/d)
US Distillate Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave.
2010 2011 2012
US Distillate Inventories
80,000
104,000
128,000
152,000
176,000
200,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb)
US Dist Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave.
2010 2011 2012
US Gasoline Demand
7,800
8,300
8,800
9,300
9,800
10,300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb/d)
US Gasoline Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave.
2010 2011 2012
US Gasoline Inventories
150,000
172,000
194,000
216,000
238,000
260,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
(kb)
US Gaso Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
epte
mb
er 2
01
2
22
Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation
Fig 82 Global Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.
Macquarie Research
Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics
Company Local Price Mcap Reco.Price
TargetUpside
Curr (local) (US$ bn) (local) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E
Exxon USD 91.9 424.3 Outperform 97.0 +6% 4.2 x 4.4 x 12.2 x 11.0 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 2.4% 2.5% 5.9% 4.6% 19.3% 19.4% 0.9% 3.4%
RD Shell GBp 2,202 133.8 Outperform 2,550 +16% 4.6 x 3.3 x 8.2 x 7.0 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 4.8% 4.9% 10.4% 13.3% 13.1% 14.5% 7.9% 4.5%
BP GBp 441 136.5 Outperform 570 +29% 5.2 x 3.7 x 8.0 x 6.4 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 4.6% 5.1% 1.0% 9.1% 11.7% 13.6% 23.7% 18.5%
Chevron USD 117.8 231.1 Outperform 123.0 +4% 3.6 x 3.4 x 9.1 x 9.1 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.0% 3.2% 3.9% 2.7% 17.9% 16.1% -6.2% -2.0%
TOTAL EUR 40.8 125.3 Neutral 42.0 +3% 3.4 x 3.3 x 8.5 x 8.5 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 5.7% 5.7% 2.1% 3.8% 11.2% 10.6% 18.4% 18.8%
Conoco USD 57.4 69.7 Neutral 55.0 -4% 3.7 x 3.8 x 10.1 x 10.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.6% 4.6% -3.3% -0.1% 8.4% 7.4% 16.0% 18.1%
Eni EUR 18.6 87.6 Neutral 19.0 +2% 3.1 x 2.9 x 8.7 x 8.0 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 5.8% 5.9% 5.0% 8.1% 12.9% 11.8% -2.0% -5.0%
Statoil NOK 153.3 85.2 Neutral 160.0 +4% 4.1 x 4.7 x 9.4 x 9.6 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 4.2% 4.5% 1.3% 4.5% 12.0% 11.1% 8.3% 7.4%
BG Group GBp 1,246 68.9 Outperform 1,950 +57% 7.3 x 5.3 x 14.9 x 12.2 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 1.3% 1.4% -5.5% -2.5% 10.3% 11.1% 22.1% 23.5%
Occidental USD 87.4 70.8 Outperform 137.0 +57% 5.2 x 4.4 x 12.4 x 10.1 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.4% 2.7% 1.1% 4.6% 12.6% 14.1% 8.6% 5.2%
Repsol EUR 16.3 26.6 Underperform 13.5 -17% 5.0 x 4.7 x 10.4 x 10.0 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 4.0% 4.3% 0.6% 5.1% 6.5% 6.0% 33.3% 30.2%
Marathon Oil USD 30.8 21.7 Neutral 34.0 +10% 3.2 x 3.0 x 12.0 x 8.8 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 2.2% 2.3% -0.5% 3.7% 8.0% 9.4% 23.1% 20.1%
Galp EUR 13.0 14.0 Outperform 16.0 +23% 9.6 x 7.5 x 29.1 x 21.2 x 1.9 x 1.8 x 1.8% 2.2% -6.8% -3.3% 6.6% 6.2% -9.9% -2.2%
OMV EUR 28.1 11.9 Neutral 26.5 -6% 3.4 x 3.4 x 6.1 x 6.0 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 3.9% 3.9% 7.1% 6.9% 10.1% 9.2% 10.2% 7.9%
PetroChina HKD 10.0 240.3 Outperform 12.0 +20% 5.3 x 5.0 x 10.8 x 8.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.9% 4.8% -8.9% 4.3% 10.2% 10.6% 27.0% 26.0%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 80.3 Neutral 7.1 +1% 4.1 x 3.2 x 9.2 x 6.5 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.7% 3.8% -9.0% 4.8% 9.5% 11.7% 28.1% 26.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 90.6 Outperform 21.0 +33% 4.4 x 4.1 x 8.0 x 7.6 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 20.4% 18.3% 8.6% 5.5%
RIL INR 850 51.4 Neutral 759 -11% 7.9 x 7.5 x 11.8 x 11.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.1% 18.1% 1.5% 9.7% 9.3% 19.8% 16.2%
ONGC INR 294.5 46.9 Outperform 325.0 +10% 3.8 x 4.4 x 9.5 x 9.6 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.3% 3.4% 6.2% 5.7% 19.9% 18.5% -16.2% -18.1%
Woodside AUD 33.8 29.5 Neutral 37.5 +11% 8.2 x 7.1 x 16.5 x 15.5 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.7% 4.1% 5.5% 10.0% 9.8% 10.1% 12.4% 5.6%
Petrobras* BRL 22.7 149.1 Not Rated NM NM 6.4 x 6.1 x 9.3 x 7.8 x 0.7 x 0.7 x
Rosneft* USD 6.7 70.8 Not Rated NM NM 4.6 x 4.6 x 6.6 x 6.6 x 0.9 x 0.8 x
Big Four 925.7 +10.2% 4.4 x 3.7 x 9.4 x 8.4 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.7% 3.9% 5.3% 7.4% 15.5% 15.9% 6.6% 6.1%
Europe 689.9 +15.6% 5.1 x 4.3 x 11.5 x 9.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.0% 4.2% 1.7% 5.0% 10.5% 10.5% 12.5% 11.5%
US 817.6 +9.0% 4.0 x 3.8 x 11.2 x 9.9 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 2.9% 3.1% 1.4% 3.1% 13.3% 13.3% 8.5% 9.0%
APAC & EM 758.9 +15.0% 5.6 x 5.3 x 10.2 x 9.3 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 2.8% 3.4% 2.6% 5.1% 13.2% 13.1% 13.3% 10.2%
Global 2,266.4 +13.0% 5.0 x 4.5 x 10.9 x 9.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 3.4% 3.7% 1.9% 4.5% 12.0% 11.9% 11.7% 10.5%
Gearing
21 September 12
EV/EBITDA Ratio P/E Ratio P/B Ratio Dividend Yield FCF Yield ROACE
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
epte
mb
er 2
01
2
23
Fig 83 Global Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.
Macquarie Research
Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics
Company Local PricePrice
TargetUpside Cons.
Curr (local) (local) 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD 2011A 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E TP
Exxon USD 91.9 97.0 +5.5% +5.1% +11.9% +6.9% +27.7% +8.4% 8.42 7.34 8.17 -12.8% +11.3% 7.73 8.17 -5.1% -0.1% 92.6 4.8%
RD Shell GBp 2,201.5 2,550.0 +15.8% -2.2% +3.3% -1.5% +6.4% -7.1% 3.99 4.42 5.18 +11.0% +17.2% 4.25 4.51 +4.1% +15.1% 2,485.3 2.6%
BP GBp 441.0 570.0 +29.3% -2.1% +7.0% -8.4% +9.1% -4.2% 1.14 0.90 1.13 -20.6% +25.3% 0.92 1.03 -2.0% +10.6% 502.7 13.4%
Chevron USD 117.8 123.0 +4.4% +5.2% +17.8% +9.2% +25.0% +10.7% 13.18 12.54 12.59 -4.9% +0.5% 12.84 12.71 -2.4% -0.9% 121.5 1.3%
TOTAL EUR 40.8 42.0 +2.9% +0.9% +17.1% -1.9% +26.7% +3.3% 5.07 4.85 4.87 -4.3% +0.2% 5.31 5.47 -8.6% -11.1% 43.8 -4.1%
Conoco USD 57.4 55.0 -4.1% +1.3% +8.7% -2.6% +15.8% +3.3% 9.17 5.54 5.26 -39.6% -5.0% 5.44 5.86 +1.8% -10.2% 59.9 -8.2%
Eni EUR 18.6 19.0 +2.4% +3.1% +13.2% +1.8% +44.1% +15.9% 1.94 2.06 2.26 +6.5% +9.6% 2.09 2.21 -1.2% +2.2% 19.8 -4.2%
Statoil NOK 153.3 160.0 +4.4% +1.7% +11.5% -3.2% +20.1% -0.1% 15.89 15.88 15.59 -0.0% -1.8% 17.06 17.61 -6.9% -11.5% 166.5 -3.9%
BG Group GBp 1,246.0 1,950.0 +56.5% -5.0% -0.2% -17.5% -0.5% -9.5% 1.31 1.39 1.70 +6.0% +22.3% 1.37 1.59 +1.2% +7.1% 1,646.7 18.4%
Occidental USD 87.4 137.0 +56.8% -0.8% +10.2% -10.6% +14.5% -6.7% 8.40 6.96 8.55 -17.1% +22.8% 6.94 7.64 +0.4% +11.9% 108.7 26.1%
Repsol EUR 16.3 13.5 -17.2% +6.9% +34.9% -18.9% -16.5% -31.3% 1.57 1.49 1.56 -4.9% +4.3% 1.56 1.72 -4.3% -9.3% 17.5 -23.0%
Marathon Oil USD 30.8 34.0 +10.5% +13.9% +32.0% -7.4% +29.7% +5.2% 3.53 2.44 3.32 -30.8% +36.2% 2.66 3.29 -8.3% +1.1% 34.4 -1.2%
Galp EUR 13.0 16.0 +23.0% +8.2% +35.2% -2.9% -10.8% +14.3% 0.31 0.44 0.60 +41.5% +37.2% 0.43 0.54 +1.3% +11.2% 16.2 -1.1%
OMV EUR 28.1 26.5 -5.6% +6.2% +21.4% -0.1% +12.2% +19.8% 3.39 4.31 4.43 +27.3% +2.7% 4.32 4.40 -0.3% +0.7% 28.6 -7.4%
PetroChina HKD 10.0 12.0 +19.8% +3.2% -2.7% -8.8% +7.7% +5.3% 0.73 0.71 0.88 -2.1% +23.7% 0.75 0.83 -5.3% +6.2% 11.4 5.5%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 7.1 +0.6% -3.2% +2.6% -16.7% -5.2% -12.1% 0.85 0.62 0.88 -26.6% +41.3% 0.69 0.86 -9.4% +2.8% 8.1 -12.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 21.0 +33.4% +4.2% +5.1% -5.9% +21.5% +15.9% 1.57 1.49 1.58 -5.1% +6.0% 1.45 1.44 +3.1% +9.8% 17.2 21.8%
RIL INR 850.3 759.0 -10.7% +4.4% +18.3% +10.7% +1.5% +22.7% 73.80 66.75 67.54 -9.6% +1.2% 62.29 67.07 +7.2% +0.7% 798.2 -4.9%
ONGC INR 294.5 325.0 +10.4% +2.6% +7.0% +8.5% +12.8% +14.8% 10.31 29.22 29.61 NM +1.3% 30.65 33.03 -4.7% -10.4% 312.2 4.1%
Woodside AUD 33.8 37.5 +11.0% -5.1% +6.5% -2.1% +1.4% +11.5% 2.09 2.20 2.35 +5.7% +6.6% 2.52 2.66 -12.4% -11.6% 39.0 -3.9%
Petrobras* BRL 22.7 +6.9% +17.8% -5.8% +10.2% +5.6% 2.45 2.93 28.4
Rosneft* USD 6.7 +5.3% +5.8% -6.8% +0.8% +1.2% 31.63 31.31 7.7
Big Four +10.2% +3.0% +11.4% +4.0% +21.2% +4.9% -8.6% +11.5% -2.6% +3.5% +4.9%
Europe +15.6% -0.1% +10.7% -5.0% +15.3% -1.1% -0.2% +12.6% -2.2% +2.4% +2.2%
US +9.0% +4.5% +13.7% +4.8% +24.8% +7.2% -13.7% +8.5% -3.3% -0.1% +4.4%
APAC & EM +15.0% +3.3% +6.0% -5.9% +7.5% +6.4% -7.0% +19.9% -3.6% +3.4% +4.0%
Global +13.0% +2.7% +10.2% -1.7% +16.1% +4.4% -7.3% +13.6% -3.1% +1.8% +3.6%
Absolute Performance EPS (local) Macq. vs.
Cons.
Macq. vs. ConsEPS growth Cons EPS (local)
21 September 12
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
epte
mb
er 2
01
2
24
Global Oil Supply-Demand
Fig 84 Macquarie Oil Demand-Supply Model
Source: IEA, BP Stat Review, JODI, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie Research
Global Oil Supply-Demand
(mb/d) 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
North America 23.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0
Europe 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.5 14.7
OECD APAC 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.1
OECD 45.6 46.1 45.8 45.3 45.2 45.3 45.5 45.8 45.9
Non-OECD Europe 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Non-OECD APAC 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.1
FSU 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8
China 8.1 9.1 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.5 13.1
Latin America 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6
Africa 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5
Middle East 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2
Non-OECD 39.9 42.1 43.4 44.9 46.5 48.2 49.9 51.6 53.1
Total Demand 85.6 88.3 89.2 90.3 91.7 93.5 95.4 97.3 99.0
North America 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.5
Europe 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9
OECD APAC 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
FSU 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.3
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Other Asia 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Latin America 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.1
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Africa 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Global Biofuels 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
Processing Gains 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Non-OPEC Supply 51.5 52.6 52.7 53.1 53.9 54.7 55.8 56.6 57.3
OPEC crude 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7
OPEC NGLs + non-conventionals 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.1
OPEC Supply 34.1 34.8 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.3 38.7 38.7 38.7
Total Supply 85.6 87.4 88.5 89.9 91.7 93.0 94.5 95.3 96.0
Supply-Demand 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 -3.0
Demand Growth (y/y) -1.0 2.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7
Supply Growth (y/y) -1.1 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
epte
mb
er 2
01
2
25
China Gas Supply-Demand
Fig 85 Macquarie China Gas Supply-Demand
Source: CEIC, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie Research
China Gas Supply-Demand
(bcm) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E2011-
15e
2011-
20e
Demand
Residential 8 10 14 17 18 23 29 34 41 48 56 64 71 78 84 89 18% 13%
Industrial 30 34 40 45 44 49 59 69 80 92 107 116 125 135 146 157 16% 11%
Power Generation 3 4 8 8 13 19 23 27 31 34 38 42 46 49 53 57 13% 11%
Transport (NGVs) 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 11 14 19 25 31 40 49 60 33% 29%
Other 5 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 8% 8%
China Gas Demand 47 56 71 81 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%
y/y% 18% 20% 26% 15% 10% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Supply
Tarim 5 11 14 16 17 17 20 23 26 30 35 40 46 50 54 58
Changqing 7 7 9 11 15 16 18 20 23 26 29 33 38 42 46 51
Sichuan 11 13 14 14 14 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 31
Puguang (Sichuan) 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
Xinjiang 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7
E-S China Sea Others 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Liwan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Legacy fields 27 27 31 38 37 43 42 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 46
China Indigenous Pdtn 51 59 69 80 85 97 103 110 120 132 145 158 171 181 192 205 9% 8%
y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 6% 13% 7% 7% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6%
Turkmenistan 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 20 25 40 40 40 50 60 60 60
Russia/Central Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 22 30 30
Myanmmar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
China Pipeline Imports 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 24 37 52 52 52 77 94 102 102 55% 31%
y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 256% 170% 54% 41% 0% 0% 48% 22% 9% 0%
LNG Imports 0 0 0 0 4 8 17 16 18 20 39 54 45 48 60 81 23% 19%
Contracted LNG 0 1 1 1 3 7 9 20 25 41 41 47 47 46 46 46
Implied Spot LNG 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 14 35
LNG imports y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% NM 96% 103% -6% 16% 10% 95% 37% -17% 7% 27% 35%
China Gas Supply 51 59 69 80 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%
y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 11% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Ma
cq
ua
rie R
esea
rch
A
sia
Oil &
Ga
s
24 S
epte
mb
er 2
01
2
26
Global LNG Supply-Demand
Fig 86 Macquarie Global LNG Supply-Demand
Source: BP Stat Review, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Macquarie LNG Supply/Demand Model(in mtpa) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
SUPPLY
Total Operational 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 268 263 259 255 250 244 237 232 226 219 209 200
Total Under Construction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 21 44 65 80 85 88 94 94 94 94 94
Total FEED 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 26 49 64 78 84 90 97 97
FEED Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 17 26 30 43 49 55 62 62
FEED Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 9 23 34 35 35 35 35 35
FEED ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 21 44 83 123 165 189 192 192 192
Proposed Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 21 39 61 86 101 104 104 104
Proposed Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 11 32 50 67 76 76 76 76
Proposed ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Total Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 18 46 87 118 143 169 185 188
Speculative Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 29 54 70 81 97 105 107
Speculative Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 16 28 41 54 65 72 74
Speculative ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 7 7 7 7
Total Higly Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 11 29 49 70 83
Stalled Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 8 16 23 28 35
Stalled Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 3 3 7 11
Stalled ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 24 35 36
Global LNG Supply (Firm) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 283 305 327 355 378 389 404 405 404 400 391
Global LNG Supply (Firm + Possible) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 287 314 351 422 515 608 698 765 814 846 853
DEMAND
Japan 55 57 55 61 59 60 64 69 71 67 71 81 85 87 88 91 91 92 93 94 95 95 96 97 98 98
Korea 16 16 18 20 22 23 26 26 28 20 34 37 41 44 45 45 44 43 42 42 42 43 43 44 45 45
Taiwan 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19
China 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 6 10 13 17 23 28 31 42 42 45 45 53 55 57 59 61 63
India 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 8 8 9 9 13 16 17 18 20 21 23 25 26 28 30 31 33 34 36
New Asia Pac 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 29 32 36 39
Asia Pac 75 77 79 86 90 94 105 115 120 110 133 157 176 191 204 213 227 231 239 244 259 266 274 283 291 301
Middle East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 17
North America 5 5 5 11 14 13 13 18 11 13 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9
Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
South America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 11 12 14 17 17 19 19 19 17 16 14 13 11 10
UK 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 8 14 19 20 21 21 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 31 32
Existing continential Europe 26 26 30 32 29 35 41 38 41 43 49 45 39 36 33 33 33 38 50 51 56 58 62 61 60 62
New Europe 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 28
Europe 26 26 30 32 30 37 45 42 44 53 65 67 64 64 65 69 71 78 93 96 103 108 114 116 117 122
Other 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 0 1 3 4 4 9 2 9 1 3 1 1 3 0
Global LNG Demand 107 108 114 129 135 145 163 175 175 184 225 250 269 288 306 325 343 360 376 391 405 417 428 439 449 459
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 27
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2012
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 55.67% 61.00% 53.43% 42.58% 69.23% 46.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 30.50% 22.11% 36.99% 52.41% 28.02% 33.69% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.14% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 13.83% 16.89% 9.59% 5.01% 2.75% 19.71% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.45% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)
Company Specific Disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General Disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd and its Taiwan branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited; Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd; Macquarie Securities Korea Limited and Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd are not authorized deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGL provides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and liabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. MGL has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated from time to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant to regulatory requirements (including the FSA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Macquarie salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Macquarie Research produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, macro-economic analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. The date and timestamp for above share price and market cap is the closed price of the price date. #CLOSE is the final price at which the security is traded in the relevant exchange on the date indicated. Country-Specific Disclaimers: Australia: In Australia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947), a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange. New Zealand: In New Zealand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd, a NZX Firm. Canada: In Canada, research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montréal Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United States and sent to US persons. Any person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. The Research Distribution Policy of Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
24 September 2012 28
distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). Germany: In Germany, this research is issued and/or distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). and in Germany by BaFin. France: In France, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong & Mainland China: In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. In Mainland China, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Shanghai Representative Office only engages in non-business operational activities excluding issuing and distributing research. Only non-A share research is distributed into Mainland China by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd. Japan: In Japan, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited, a member of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. and Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau (kin-sho) No. 231, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan and Japan Investment Advisers Association). India: In India,
research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd., 92, Level 9, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051, India, which is a SEBI registered Stock Broker having membership with National Stock Exchange of India Limited (INB231246738) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (INB011246734). Malaysia: In Malaysia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (Company registration number: 463469-W) which is a Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission. Taiwan: Information on securities/instruments that are traded in Taiwan is distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, Taiwan Branch, which is licensed and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. No portion of the report may be reproduced or quoted by the press or any other person without authorisation from Macquarie. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product. Research Associate(s) in this report who are registered as Clerks only assist in the preparation of research and are not engaged in writing the research. Thailand: In Thailand, research is produced with the contribution of Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd. is a licensed securities company that is authorized by the Ministry of Finance, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand and is an exchange member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited and Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have entered into an exclusive strategic alliance agreement to broaden and deepen the scope of services provided to each parties respective clients. The strategic alliance does not constitute a joint venture. The Thai Institute of Directors Association has disclosed the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd does not endorse the result of the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies but this Report can be accessed at: http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4. South Korea: In South Korea, unless otherwise stated, research is prepared, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities Korea Limited, which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services. Information on analysts in MSKL is disclosed at http://dis.kofia.or.kr/fs/dis2/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystPop.jsp?companyCd2=A03053&pageDiv=02. South Africa: In South Africa, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited, a member of the JSE Limited. Singapore: In Singapore, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company Registration Number: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services license holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial services in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exempt from complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. All Singapore-based recipients of research produced by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited and Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. represent and warrant that they are institutional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act. United States: In the United States, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.’s affiliate’s analysts are not registered as research analysts with FINRA, may not be associated persons of Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and therefore may not be subject to FINRA rule restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishing to effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures, or contact your registered representative at 1-888-MAC-STOCK, or write to the Supervisory Analysts, Research Department, Macquarie Securities, 125 W.55th Street, New York, NY 10019. © Macquarie Group Auckland Tel: (649) 377 6433
Jakarta Tel: (62 21) 515 1818
Mumbai Tel: (91 22) 6653 3000
Singapore Tel: (65) 6601 1111
Bangkok Tel: (662) 694 7999
Johannesburg Tel: (2711) 583 2000
Munich Tel: (089) 2444 31800
Sydney Tel: (612) 8232 9555
Calgary Tel: (1 403) 218 6650
Kuala Lumpur Tel: (60 3) 2059 8833
New York Tel: (1 212) 231 2500
Taipei Tel: (886 2) 2734 7500
Denver Tel: (303) 952 2800
London Tel: (44 20) 3037 2000
Paris Tel: (33 1) 7842 3823
Tokyo Tel: (81 3) 3512 7900
Frankfurt Tel: (069) 509 578 000
Manila Tel: (63 2) 857 0888
Perth Tel: (618) 9224 0888
Toronto Tel: (1 416) 848 3500
Geneva Tel: (41) 22 818 7777
Melbourne Tel: (613) 9635 8139
Seoul Tel: (82 2) 3705 8500
Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2823 3588
Montreal Tel: (1 514) 925 2850
Shanghai Tel: (86 21) 6841 3355
Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarieresearch.com and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ and TheMarkets.com.
Asia Research Head of Equity Research John O’Connell (Global Co – Head) (612) 8232 7544 David Rickards (Global Co – Head) (612) 8237 1159 Chris Hunt (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 1119
Automobiles/Auto Parts Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856 Michael Sohn (Korea) (82 2) 3705 8644
Banks and Non-Bank Financials Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4774 Victor Wang (China) (852) 3922 1479 Rachel Li (China) (852) 3922 4762 Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078 Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366 Alastair Macdonald (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Matthew Smith (Malaysia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0981 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Jemmy Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530 Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728
Conglomerates Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840
Consumer and Gaming Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557 Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489 Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392 HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840 Best Waiyanont (Thailand) (662) 694 7993
Emerging Leaders Jake Lynch (China, Asia) (8621) 2412 9007 Makoto Egami (Japan) (813) 3512 7879
Industrials Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Saiyi He (China) (852) 3922 3585 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Juwon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753
Insurance Scott Russell (Asia, China) (852) 3922 3567 Chung Jun Yun (Korea) (822) 2095 7222
Media and Internet Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3566 Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578 Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899
Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals James Hubbard (Asia) (852) 3922 1226 Jal Irani (India) (9122) 6720 4080 Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 Brandon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8669 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) (662) 694 7829 Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086 Eunice Bu (Korea) (822) 2095 7223 Property Callum Bramah (Asia) (852) 3922 4731 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Jeffrey Gao (China) (8621) 2412 9026 Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Felicia Barus (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8480 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) (65) 6601 0838 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727 Resources / Metals and Mining Andrew Dale (Asia) (852) 3922 3587 Graeme Train (China) (8621) 2412 9035 Matty Zhao (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1293 Christina Lee (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3571 Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093 Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (852) 3922 4626 Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486 Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 Chak Reungsinpinya (Thailand) (662) 694 7982 Technology Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512 Lisa Soh (China) (852) 3922 1401 Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090 Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877 David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880 George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854 Jeff Loff (Japan) (813) 3512 7851 Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641 Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659 Andrew Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7526 Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516 Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525 Telecoms Nathan Ramler (Asia) (813) 3512 7875 Lisa Soh (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1401 Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Joseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519
Transport & Infrastructure Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 5417 Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3898 Nicholas Cunningham (Japan) (813) 3512 6044 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Utilities & Renewables Adam Worthington (Asia) (852) 3922 4626 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Commodities Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061 Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271 Duncan Hobbs (4420) 3037 4497 Bonnie Liu (65) 6601 0144 Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035 Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093 Economics Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7850 Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935 Tanvee Gupta (India) (9122) 6720 4355 Quantitative / CPG Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036 Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494 Simon Rigney (Asia) (852) 3922 4719 Eric Yeung (Asia) (852) 3922 4077 Patrick Hansen (Japan) (813) 3512 7876 Ayumu Kuroda (Japan) (813) 3512 7569 Strategy/Country Emil Wolter (Asia) (65) 6601 0538 Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850 Chris Hunt (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1119 Jiong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566 Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093 Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366 Michael Newman (Japan) (813) 3512 7920 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182 Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516 David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753 Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com TheMarkets.com www.themarkets.com Email [email protected] for access
Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales Robin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074 Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288 Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502 Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061 Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712 Andrew Mouat (India) (9122) 6720 4100 JJ Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8799 Chris Gould (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861 Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559 Luke Sullivan (New York) (1 212) 231 2507 Paul Colaco (New York) (1 212) 231 2496 Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5001 Miki Edelman (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580
Regional Heads of Sales cont’d Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601 Angus Innes (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4841 Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4865 Sean Alexander (Generalist) (852) 3922 2101
Regional Head of Distribution Justin Crawford (Asia) (852) 3922 2065
Sales Trading Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002 Phil Sellaroli (Japan) (813) 3512 7837 Grace Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8601 Jonathan Seymour (Singapore) (65) 6601 0202 Matthew Ryan (Singapore) (65) 6601 0216
Sales Trading cont’d Mike Keen (Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555 Kenneth Cheung (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 John Fajardo (Philippines) (632) 857 0840 Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813 Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582 Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707