Asian Cities beyond Covid-19

• Chris Webster, PhD, DSc(econ)

• Professor of Urban Planning and Development Economics

• Dean, Faculty of Architecture

• The University of Hong Kong

Human clustering in cities

https://www.statista.com/chart/1826/population-growth-in-the-worlds-megacities/

Human clustering in cities

History shows it will always continue

Cities will get bigger

Sometimes they shrink for a while, but then

bounce back

Terminal decline, only if too mono-sectoral or

in wrong place

https://www.statista.com/chart/1826/population-growth-in-the-worlds-megacities/

Technology

• History shows that technology strengthen the attraction of cities

• Technology advances usually lead to reduced friction of distance and this tends to increase production and consumption agglomeration economies

https://www.kelbillet.com/train/trajet/paris-marseille.html

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Big-Bang-Financial-Revolution-Means/dp/0746303890

Post Covidadaptation of cities?

• Cities will not shrink

• Densities will not decrease

• Production will not disperse

• Culture will not disperse

• Infrastructure will make all the above safer

• There will be some adaptation of the spatial economy, but only enhancement of existing trends, eg change of function of city centres

Post Covidadaptation of cities?

• Cities will not shrink

• Densities will not decrease

• Production will not disperse

• Culture will not disperse

• Infrastructure will make all the above safer

• There will be some adaptation of the spatial economy, but only enhancement of existing trends, eg change of function of city centres

Behavioural vs infrastructure response

• Only in the 4th 19th century cholera pandemic was there the start of an infrastructural response, following John Snow’s epidemiological discovery and a paradigm shift from ‘miasma’ to germ theory.

• By the 6th pandemic (1899-1923), London was protected by infrastructure, but 500,000 Russians and 800,000 Indians died.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholera_outbreaks_and_pandemics#/media/File:Cholera_395.1.jpg

http://blog.rtwilson.com/john-snows-famous-cholera-analysis-data-in-modern-gis-formats/

https://www.immunology.org/john-snows-pump-1854

Adaptive cities will not be cowered by disease

1665, 75,000 25%

1592, 20,000, 13%

1656, 12,000, >50%

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/

mapping-the-worlds-urban-population-in-2050/

http://www.millwall-history.org.uk/Origins-1.htm

Adaptive cities will not be cowered by disease

https://doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2019/03/27/density-timelines/

Infrastructural, not spatial, response

• Healthy micro-pods instead of dormitories

• Self-cleansing materials, elevators, PT-surfaces etc

• Social distancing tech

• Env-health monitoring tech

• Individual health care tech

• Resilient city tech: work, shopping, eating, leisure all adapt to hybrid on/off-line

• Most radical change: public transport tech?

• Reprise of the private vehicle

• Pandemic-safe public transport adaptations

City planning – a ‘spatial vaccine’ for infectious or chronic disease risk?

• 2.8M die each year from obesity (WHO)

• Density is protective of obesity

• How would you design a city for healthy density?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30119-5/fulltext

https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/healthy-cities-9781781955710.html https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/overweight-obesity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

Disease Case Fatality Rate Total deaths/year

Covid-19 1.4% 204,000 (extra deaths, USA)

Seasonal flu ~1% 12,000 (2011-12) -56,000 (2012-13) (USA)

Bubonic plague 5-60%

SARS 11%

Obesity (BMI>30) ~1% 300,000 (USA annual estimate)

How can ESCAP help secondary cities with poor institutional capacity target healthy-city investment? (beyond public-health behaviour modifying campaigns)

• Sanitary infrastructure upgrade

• Infection-tracing infrastructure

• Microbial-monitoring infrastructure (air, water, public-transport, cash)

• De-densify ultra-high density living (regulation, fiscal, direct-investment)

• Leapfrog healthier pandemic-tech solutions? Eg pods?

http://www.jameslawcybertecture.com/?id=1087&section=projects

Discuss!

Thank you for your attention