asp summer colloquium on uncertainty in climate change research: an integrated approach welcome!...
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ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research:
An Integrated Approach
Welcome!
NCAR, Boulder, CO July 21 - August 6, 2014
Introduction to the ASP Summer Colloquium on
Uncertainty in Climate Change Research:An Integrated Approach
Linda O. MearnsNational Center for Atmospheric Research
NCAR, Boulder, CO July 21 - August 6, 2014
“To know one’s ignorance is the best part of knowledge”
–Lao Tzu
“Any clear way, though it lead to death, is preferable to the tangle of uncertainty”.
- Charles Horton Cooley, U.S. sociologist
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” -Voltaire
Uncertainty – what is it?
A state of lack of knowledge or incomplete knowledge or more completely: A state of incomplete knowledge (about the future), often with a random component reflecting random processes (e.g, rolling of dice). Total uncertainty is a combination of random (aleatory) uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty (the incomplete knowledge due to complexity of world). Probability is viewed as the standard measure of uncertainty.
But first, what do we know?
Data from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., NOAA. Data prior to 1974 from C. Keeling, Scripps Inst. Oceanogr.
Changing Atmospheric Composition of CO2
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Rate increasing
ppm390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310 1960 1970 1980 1990 . 2000 2010
K. Trenberth
Entered graduate school
ReceivedPhD
Got CO2
sample
Mauna Loa Observatory
Sealing the Sample
ExtremesHurricane Sandy
Made landfall on New Jersey shore October 29, 2012.
Example of Damage: what’s it got to do
with climate change?• Consolidated Edison electricity substation
in lower Manahttan stopped working at 9 p.m. Monday evening
• Flood protection barrier was overtopped (designed to be 1.5 ft above 10 ft storm surge of record)
• Sandy’s storm surge = 14 ft
R. Henson
IPCC, 2001
The Integration Problem
Cascade of Uncertainty for Climate Change Research
Decision-Making(Assessment of needs, decision entry points,
institutional constraints,politics etc.)
Mitigation
Adaptation
Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus
Scientific Information inDecision Processes
Physical Science
SocietySociety
Society
SocietalIssues
Physical Science
Other Knowledge
SocietalIssues
Other Knowledge
S. Moser
Developing Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
Moving from ‘Is Climate Change Happening?’ to ‘What do we do about it?’
Emphasis on Actionable Science
Positive Signs of Integration
IPCC WG2 (2014)
Risk Management
• ‘Iterative risk management is a useful framework for decision making in complex situations characterized by large potential consequences, persistent uncertainties, long time frames and multiple climatic and non-climatic influences changing over time.’
» IPCC, 2014 (WG2 SPM)
Why are we doing this Colloquium?
• To understand the strands of uncertainty throughout the climate change problem in order to maximize effectiveness in any one area.
• It does not mean that all participants are expected to always engage in highly interdisciplinary research.
• It does mean that hopefully your research activities will be informed by and benefit from the larger uncertainty context.
The Importance of Generational Change
Stephen H. Schneider 1945 - 2010
The End
S. Schneider, 1978in
Climatic Limits to Growth
‘Tough decisions that have to be made generally are value judgments of how to weigh risks and benefits in the face of large uncertainties.’