enhancing emergency management and response to extreme...
TRANSCRIPT
Learning from past events to raise future self-preparedness and protection
Isabelle Ruin, S. Anquetin, B. Boudevillain, J-‐D. Creutin, C. Lutoff, S. Shabou, G. Terti
contact : isabelle.ruin@ujf-‐grenoble.fr
Natural Hazards Observer • September 2008 11
Flash Flood Research—Past, Present, and Future— an invited comment
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Early warning systems have advanced since the 1976 flood, includ-ing emergency call-back systems, auto-
mated stream and rain gauge networks, Dop-pler radar, and satellite imagery. Unfortunately, flash floods often occur in catchments too small
for the rainfall signal to appear on Doppler
radar.
DRS-01-2015: 700099 EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events
Draft date: 27/8/15 PARTB_1_ANYWHERE_v6.7.docx
Call topic: H2020-DRS-1-2015
EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events
List of participants Part. no. Participant organisation name Part. short
name Type
Oganiz. Count
ry Comment
1 (CO) Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya UPC RES ES
2 Centro Internazionale in Monitoraggio Ambientale CIMA RES IT
3 AIRBUS Defence & Space AIRBUS IND FR
4 Wageningen University WUR RES NL
5 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ RES DE
6 Hydrometeorological Innovative Solutions S. L. HYDS SME ES
7 University of Paderborn UPB RES DE
8 Stiftelsen Sintef SINTEF NG-RES NO
9 D'Appolonia DAPP IND IT
10 Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI G-RESP FI Op A
11 European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts ECMWF GOV INT Op A
12 Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca CFR RES IT
13 University of Geneva UNIGE RES CH
14 Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis UNS RES FR
15 DG Joint Research Center JRC GOV BE
16 University of Reading UOR RES UK
17 KAJO s. r. o. KAJO SME SK
18 CNRS- Laboratoire d’études de Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement CNRS RES FR 19 Scuola Superiore di Studi Universitari e di Perfezionamento Sant'Anna SSSA RES IT 20 Departament d’Interior de Catalunya INTC G-RESP ES Op A
21 Agencia Catalana de l’Aigua/Water Agency of Catalonia ACA G-RESP ES Op A
22 Dirección General de Protección Civil y Emergencias de España DGPCE G-RESP ES Op A 23 Agencia de Medio Ambiente y Agua de Andalucía AMAYA G-RESP ES Op A
24 Comune di Genova CDG G-RESP IT Op A
25 Agenzia Regionale Protezione Ambiente Ligure ARPAL G-RESP IT Op A
26 Direction Départementale des Services d'Incendie et de Secours de Haute Corse SDIS2B G-RESP FR Op A
27 Finnish Ministry of Interior FMoI G-RESP FI Op A
28 Helse Stavanger University Hospital HSUH NG-RESP NO Op A
29 Abteilung Naturgefahren, Kanton Bern VOLBE G-RESP CH Op A 30 MeteoDat GmbH METEODAT SME CH 31 Geo 7 GEO7 SME CH
CODES: RES: Research; NG-RES: Non Governmental Research; GOV: Governmental institution; G-RESP: Governmental Respoder; NG-RESP: Non-Governmental Respoder; SME: Small and Medium Enterprise; IND: Industry; Op A: Operational Authority in Emergency response.
• Hear/receive
• Understand
• Believe
• Personalize
• Decide to act
• Take
appropriate action
Warning systems have to take into account public
response components:
Warning process is complex
Représentation du danger annoncé par les niveaux de
vigilance de Météo France
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Danger perçu
comme vital
Itinéraire perçu
comme dangereux
Vigilance rouge Vigilance orange
Perception and cognitive factors
Confiance dans les sources d'information
0%
20%
40%
60%
Pompiers/gendarmes
Responsables locaux
Météo France
Médias
Propre appréciation env.
Voisins, gens du pays
Autres
NSP
Résidents (N=949) Touristes (N=258)
Questionnaires (2004)
- 960 inhabitants + 260 tourists
- representative sample of the population
- risk perception / declared behaviors to cope with FF / trust in information sources
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Overvaluation 40 cm Undervaluation Don't know
Fréq
uenc
e
Hauteur d'eau
Perception des seuils de danger au volant d'une voiture
< 25 ans 25-45 ans 46-65 ans > 65 ans
< 40 cm > 40 cm NSP
Risk perception and trust in information sources
Dynamic of Social activities
Hydrometeorological Dynamic
Transition-adaptation phase
Crisis Periods
Objects of study
When social and physical dynamics interact: the potential for high impact events
Daily rhythm of exposure
InformaFon OrganizaFon Goods protecFon
Self-‐protecFon
Dis
char
ge
Rainfall
CrisisEveryday
Time
• FF interacts with the daily and sub-‐daily pace of the social life
• Time of is essential as it will define contextual vulnerability factors
• To anticipate the peak of danger, people need to switch from routine activity to crisis response
=> One warning message won’t fit all, specially when, often for FF, peak discharges are asynchronous throughout the same rainfall event.
Timing of occurence is essential
Crisis%circumstances%
Risk%percep*on%
Mental%representa*on%
Couple%place0ac1vity%
Sense2making%f(percep1on)%
Decision2making%f(sense0making)%
Human%Behavior%f(Decision0making;%Physical%ability)%
Physical%ability%
Percep*on%f(Cc;%Cp0a;%Rp;%Mr)%
samedi 12 juillet 14
• Individual response to warnings is not just a stimuli-‐response process, it depends on both :
• long term cognitive processes (mental maps) acquired through education, communication and previous experiences => contribute to the understanding of the crisis situation
• short term processes combining direct perception allowing to sense the situation, and perceived constraints related to priorities of the daily life (work, family).
• Responses to warnings are not immediate: first, people search for confirmation through various sources including visual cues before trying to manage their priorities of the moment based on what they understand of the situation.
=> Warning systems need to acknowledge it and bring solutions to help people to make sense faster and adopt timely responses.
Understanding individual’s decision-making to better target warnings
17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series 7
Flood risk management theory
Public evacuation decision Warning reception
Evacuation preparation
Travel to safety
Urbanic, et al., 1980, USACE Report
Data collection
Evaluation Notification Decision making
Action Carsell et al., 2004, Natural Hazard Review
Evacuation time estimate Lyndell et al. 2008, Transportation Research, Siccardi et al., 2005, JGR
Information Organization Protection Creutin et al., 2008, Meteorological Applications
Rainfall
Discharge
Time
WarningForecast
Storm onset
Danger peak
17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series
8
Flash flood management in practice
Rainfall
Discharge
Time
WarningForecast
Storm onset
Danger peak
Danger peak
Danger peak
Danger peak
Danger peak
• Different groups of people follow the Information/ Organization/ Protection “cycle” to manage the risk at different scales
• Therefore, multiples social entities of various scales (individual to large group) conduct this cycle of action asynchronously
I - O - P
I - O - P
I - O - P
I - O - P
Flash flood responses in practice
The challenges of connecting population’s need
Users from the general public- won’t only rely on one source of information but several (official and unofficial)- have different socio-demographic profiles and experiences => one technology or mode of representation of the information won’t fit all- need information that allow them to make sense of the VERY LOCAL SITUATION and the DANGER they face allowing them to take informed decisions
Warnings messages and lead-time - need to take into account the temporality of the daily life of people because it is a factor of both exposure and vulnerability- need to acknowledge and deal with the fact that people have/perceive constraints related to their professional activities and family that compete with the uncertain information related to the weather hazard
The role of meteorological forecast regarding
schools and school transportation
Ruin, 2006
Human vulnerability varies across scales
Post-event investigation (2003)
- investigation on loss of life circumstances
- geolocation of fatalities
- calculation of the size of the drainage area for each accident
1
10
100
1000
10000
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Surfaces (km2)
Wate
rsheds
tim
e r
esp
onse
s (m
n)
Scale of atmospheric objects (Orlanski, 1975) Scale of hydrological responses
Scale of fatal catchments (Gard, 2002) Ruin et al., 2008. Journal of Hydrology, vol. 361, 199-213.
Hydro-meteorological circumstances of fatal accidents during the 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region
11 deaths at home 5 catchments > 1000 kmAverage age: 76
11 deaths in the outdoor 9 catchments < 20 kmAverage age: 43 Mainly males