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Learning from past events to raise future self- preparedness and protection Isabelle Ruin, S. Anquetin, B. Boudevillain, JD. Creutin, C. Lutoff, S. Shabou, G. Terti contact : [email protected] Flash Flood Research—Past, Present, and Future

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Page 1: EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme ...gebrada.upc.es/anywhere/the-project/wp-content/uploads/kick-off... · 17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series 7

Learning from past events to raise future self-preparedness and protection

Isabelle  Ruin,  S.  Anquetin,  B.  Boudevillain,  J-­‐D.  Creutin,  C.  Lutoff,  S.  Shabou,  G.  Terti  

contact  :  isabelle.ruin@ujf-­‐grenoble.fr

Natural Hazards Observer • September 2008 11

Flash Flood Research—Past, Present, and Future— an invited comment

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Early warning systems have advanced since the 1976 flood, includ-ing emergency call-back systems, auto-

mated stream and rain gauge networks, Dop-pler radar, and satellite imagery. Unfortunately, flash floods often occur in catchments too small

for the rainfall signal to appear on Doppler

radar.

DRS-01-2015: 700099 EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events

Draft date: 27/8/15 PARTB_1_ANYWHERE_v6.7.docx

Call topic: H2020-DRS-1-2015

EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events

List of participants Part. no. Participant organisation name Part. short

name Type

Oganiz. Count

ry Comment

1 (CO) Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya UPC RES ES

2 Centro Internazionale in Monitoraggio Ambientale CIMA RES IT

3 AIRBUS Defence & Space AIRBUS IND FR

4 Wageningen University WUR RES NL

5 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ RES DE

6 Hydrometeorological Innovative Solutions S. L. HYDS SME ES

7 University of Paderborn UPB RES DE

8 Stiftelsen Sintef SINTEF NG-RES NO

9 D'Appolonia DAPP IND IT

10 Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI G-RESP FI Op A

11 European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts ECMWF GOV INT Op A

12 Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca CFR RES IT

13 University of Geneva UNIGE RES CH

14 Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis UNS RES FR

15 DG Joint Research Center JRC GOV BE

16 University of Reading UOR RES UK

17 KAJO s. r. o. KAJO SME SK

18 CNRS- Laboratoire d’études de Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement CNRS RES FR 19 Scuola Superiore di Studi Universitari e di Perfezionamento Sant'Anna SSSA RES IT 20 Departament d’Interior de Catalunya INTC G-RESP ES Op A

21 Agencia Catalana de l’Aigua/Water Agency of Catalonia ACA G-RESP ES Op A

22 Dirección General de Protección Civil y Emergencias de España DGPCE G-RESP ES Op A 23 Agencia de Medio Ambiente y Agua de Andalucía AMAYA G-RESP ES Op A

24 Comune di Genova CDG G-RESP IT Op A

25 Agenzia Regionale Protezione Ambiente Ligure ARPAL G-RESP IT Op A

26 Direction Départementale des Services d'Incendie et de Secours de Haute Corse SDIS2B G-RESP FR Op A

27 Finnish Ministry of Interior FMoI G-RESP FI Op A

28 Helse Stavanger University Hospital HSUH NG-RESP NO Op A

29 Abteilung Naturgefahren, Kanton Bern VOLBE G-RESP CH Op A 30 MeteoDat GmbH METEODAT SME CH 31 Geo 7 GEO7 SME CH

CODES: RES: Research; NG-RES: Non Governmental Research; GOV: Governmental institution; G-RESP: Governmental Respoder; NG-RESP: Non-Governmental Respoder; SME: Small and Medium Enterprise; IND: Industry; Op A: Operational Authority in Emergency response.

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• Hear/receive

• Understand

• Believe

• Personalize

• Decide to act

• Take

appropriate action

Warning systems have to take into account public

response components:

Warning process is complex

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Représentation du danger annoncé par les niveaux de

vigilance de Météo France

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Danger perçu

comme vital

Itinéraire perçu

comme dangereux

Vigilance rouge Vigilance orange

Perception and cognitive factors

Confiance dans les sources d'information

0%

20%

40%

60%

Pompiers/gendarmes

Responsables locaux

Météo France

Médias

Propre appréciation env.

Voisins, gens du pays

Autres

NSP

Résidents (N=949) Touristes (N=258)

Questionnaires (2004)

- 960 inhabitants + 260 tourists

- representative sample of the population

- risk perception / declared behaviors to cope with FF / trust in information sources

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Overvaluation 40 cm Undervaluation Don't know

Fréq

uenc

e

Hauteur d'eau

Perception des seuils de danger au volant d'une voiture

< 25 ans 25-45 ans 46-65 ans > 65 ans

< 40 cm > 40 cm NSP

Risk perception and trust in information sources

Page 4: EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme ...gebrada.upc.es/anywhere/the-project/wp-content/uploads/kick-off... · 17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series 7

Dynamic of Social activities

Hydrometeorological Dynamic

Transition-adaptation phase

Crisis Periods

Objects of study

When social and physical dynamics interact: the potential for high impact events

Daily rhythm of exposure

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InformaFon OrganizaFon Goods  protecFon

Self-­‐protecFon

Dis

char

ge

Rainfall

CrisisEveryday

Time

• FF  interacts  with  the  daily  and  sub-­‐daily  pace  of  the  social  life    

• Time   of   is   essential   as   it   will   define   contextual  vulnerability  factors  

• To  anticipate  the  peak  of  danger,  people  need  to  switch  from  routine  activity  to  crisis  response

=>   One   warning   message   won’t   fit   all,   specially   when,   often   for   FF,   peak  discharges  are  asynchronous  throughout  the  same  rainfall  event.

Timing of occurence is essential

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Crisis%circumstances%

Risk%percep*on%

Mental%representa*on%

Couple%place0ac1vity%

Sense2making%f(percep1on)%

Decision2making%f(sense0making)%

Human%Behavior%f(Decision0making;%Physical%ability)%

Physical%ability%

Percep*on%f(Cc;%Cp0a;%Rp;%Mr)%

samedi 12 juillet 14

• Individual  response  to  warnings  is  not  just  a  stimuli-­‐response  process,  it  depends  on  both  :  

• long   term   cognitive   processes   (mental   maps)  acquired   through  education,   communication  and  previous   experiences   =>   contribute   to   the  understanding  of  the  crisis  situation  

• short  term  processes  combining  direct  perception  allowing   to   sense   the   situation,   and   perceived  constraints   related   to   priorities   of   the   daily   life  (work,  family).    

• Responses   to   warnings   are   not   immediate:   first,  people   search   for   confirmation   through   various  sources  including  visual  cues  before  trying  to  manage  their   priorities   of   the   moment   based   on   what   they  understand  of  the  situation.  

=>  Warning  systems  need  to  acknowledge  it  and  bring  solutions  to  help  people  to  make  sense  faster  and  adopt  timely  responses.  

Understanding individual’s decision-making to better target warnings

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17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series 7

Flood risk management theory

Public evacuation decision Warning reception

Evacuation preparation

Travel to safety

Urbanic, et al., 1980, USACE Report

Data collection

Evaluation Notification Decision making

Action Carsell et al., 2004, Natural Hazard Review

Evacuation time estimate Lyndell et al. 2008, Transportation Research, Siccardi et al., 2005, JGR

Information Organization Protection Creutin et al., 2008, Meteorological Applications

Rainfall

Discharge

Time

WarningForecast

Storm onset

Danger peak

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17 November 2009 NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series

8

Flash flood management in practice

Rainfall

Discharge

Time

WarningForecast

Storm onset

Danger peak

Danger peak

Danger peak

Danger peak

Danger peak

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• Different groups of people follow the Information/ Organization/ Protection “cycle” to manage the risk at different scales

• Therefore, multiples social entities of various scales (individual to large group) conduct this cycle of action asynchronously

I - O - P

I - O - P

I - O - P

I - O - P

Flash flood responses in practice

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The challenges of connecting population’s need

Users from the general public- won’t only rely on one source of information but several (official and unofficial)- have different socio-demographic profiles and experiences => one technology or mode of representation of the information won’t fit all- need information that allow them to make sense of the VERY LOCAL SITUATION and the DANGER they face allowing them to take informed decisions

Warnings messages and lead-time - need to take into account the temporality of the daily life of people because it is a factor of both exposure and vulnerability- need to acknowledge and deal with the fact that people have/perceive constraints related to their professional activities and family that compete with the uncertain information related to the weather hazard

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The role of meteorological forecast regarding

schools and school transportation

Ruin, 2006

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Human vulnerability varies across scales

Post-event investigation (2003)

- investigation on loss of life circumstances

- geolocation of fatalities

- calculation of the size of the drainage area for each accident

1

10

100

1000

10000

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Surfaces (km2)

Wate

rsheds

tim

e r

esp

onse

s (m

n)

Scale of atmospheric objects (Orlanski, 1975) Scale of hydrological responses

Scale of fatal catchments (Gard, 2002) Ruin et al., 2008. Journal of Hydrology, vol. 361, 199-213.

Hydro-meteorological circumstances of fatal accidents during the 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region

11 deaths at home 5 catchments > 1000 kmAverage age: 76

11 deaths in the outdoor 9 catchments < 20 kmAverage age: 43 Mainly males