aspen/pitkin county airport...source: destimetrics, stay aspen snowmass transient inventory study,...
TRANSCRIPT
AspenPitkin County Airport
ASE VISION PROCESS
May 7 2019
Meeting Purpose
2
BETTER UNDERSTAND
projected future trends in the air service industry
ESTABLISHbaseline of past and present air service
and current conditions at ASE
EXPLOREpotential
implications of forecasted industry changes in service
aircraftfleet and air space from a regional growth management
perspective
Agenda
3
Welcome and Introductions
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
Past Present and Projected Air
Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
Moderated QampA
Next Steps
Tonightrsquos Speakersbull Gabe Preston| RPI Consulting
bull 19 years of experience as community planner and economic analystbull Project lead on over 200 technical planning projects including economic
analyses demographic and market studies fiscal analysesimpact fees and transportationconnectivity planning
bull MA Geography University of Colorado Boulder BA Mathematics and Philosophy St Johnrsquos College Santa Fe
bull Linda Perry | Leigh Fisherbull 34 years of experience in forecasting and economicsbull Specializes in economic analyses aviation demand forecasting and
comparative evaluations of airline service route networks and airfaresbull Bachelors Economics and Government St Lawrence University Masters
Economics Boston College
4
Announcements
5
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
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Sep
12
Dec
12
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13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
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15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
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10
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11
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11
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14
May
14
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14
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May
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15
Jan
16
May
16
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16
Jan
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May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
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08
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09
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14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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14
20
15
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20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
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12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Meeting Purpose
2
BETTER UNDERSTAND
projected future trends in the air service industry
ESTABLISHbaseline of past and present air service
and current conditions at ASE
EXPLOREpotential
implications of forecasted industry changes in service
aircraftfleet and air space from a regional growth management
perspective
Agenda
3
Welcome and Introductions
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
Past Present and Projected Air
Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
Moderated QampA
Next Steps
Tonightrsquos Speakersbull Gabe Preston| RPI Consulting
bull 19 years of experience as community planner and economic analystbull Project lead on over 200 technical planning projects including economic
analyses demographic and market studies fiscal analysesimpact fees and transportationconnectivity planning
bull MA Geography University of Colorado Boulder BA Mathematics and Philosophy St Johnrsquos College Santa Fe
bull Linda Perry | Leigh Fisherbull 34 years of experience in forecasting and economicsbull Specializes in economic analyses aviation demand forecasting and
comparative evaluations of airline service route networks and airfaresbull Bachelors Economics and Government St Lawrence University Masters
Economics Boston College
4
Announcements
5
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Agenda
3
Welcome and Introductions
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
Past Present and Projected Air
Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
Moderated QampA
Next Steps
Tonightrsquos Speakersbull Gabe Preston| RPI Consulting
bull 19 years of experience as community planner and economic analystbull Project lead on over 200 technical planning projects including economic
analyses demographic and market studies fiscal analysesimpact fees and transportationconnectivity planning
bull MA Geography University of Colorado Boulder BA Mathematics and Philosophy St Johnrsquos College Santa Fe
bull Linda Perry | Leigh Fisherbull 34 years of experience in forecasting and economicsbull Specializes in economic analyses aviation demand forecasting and
comparative evaluations of airline service route networks and airfaresbull Bachelors Economics and Government St Lawrence University Masters
Economics Boston College
4
Announcements
5
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Tonightrsquos Speakersbull Gabe Preston| RPI Consulting
bull 19 years of experience as community planner and economic analystbull Project lead on over 200 technical planning projects including economic
analyses demographic and market studies fiscal analysesimpact fees and transportationconnectivity planning
bull MA Geography University of Colorado Boulder BA Mathematics and Philosophy St Johnrsquos College Santa Fe
bull Linda Perry | Leigh Fisherbull 34 years of experience in forecasting and economicsbull Specializes in economic analyses aviation demand forecasting and
comparative evaluations of airline service route networks and airfaresbull Bachelors Economics and Government St Lawrence University Masters
Economics Boston College
4
Announcements
5
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Announcements
5
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Additional Meetings
Visit wwwasevisioncommeetings for all upcoming meetings and materials
Thursday June 6th is the next joint meeting
Community Character Working Group is meeting Thursday May 23rd at the Pitkin County Offices 4-6 PM
6
Monday May 20th 2-4 PM and Thursday May 29th 9-11 AM Limited to 8 people per tour additional dates can be added depending
on level of interest
Airport Tours
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Setting the Growth Context
Roaring Fork Valley
7
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Local and Regional Growth
Indicators
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DOLA State Demography Office
19991
21942
1933520966
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Jobs in Pitkin County 2001-2017
PEAKEDin 2008
MODERATE GROWTH since 201012 annual
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DOLA State Demography Office
58777248
8156 8491
9837
1190112960
13397
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
160001
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Pitkin County Housing Units and Households
Households Total Housing Units
Housing andhousehold
units grow atnearly the same rate
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
11
367385 396
366
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Housing Vacancy Rate by Decade Pitkin County
bull Vacancy Rate is a sound indicator of part-time residencesbull Vacancy Rate has not changed significantly over four decadesbull 2006 NWCOG Second Home Study estimated 496-552 part-time residences
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source US Census Bureau
8392 8484 8515
14834 17173 17747
47811 56687 57945
-
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2004 2013 2017
Roaring Fork Valley Population Trends
Eagle Pitkin Garfield
County2004-2013
Annual Change2013-2017
Annual Change
Eagle (in Roaring Fork) 01 01
Pitkin 18 08
Garfield 21 06
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
13
17747
8271
17036
10008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Full-Time Population Commuters Overnight AccomodationsOccupants
Part Time Residents
Components of Peak Population
Annual Average Low Season Peak Season
Full-Time Population 17747 17747 17747
Commuters 7319 5855 8271
Overnight Accommodations Occupants 12597 6011 17036
Part Time Residents 6102 4211 10008
Total 43766 33824 53062
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Visitor Indicators
14
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Total Skier Days by Season
1268704
1444651
1336096
1521409
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
Source Revised Carbon Footprints 2000-2017 Aspen Skiing Company
Skier days grew beyond the pre-recession peak in 2013-2017
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Boundary MapSource Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District Website
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Monthly Average Daily Influent Flows 2015-2017Source Aspen Sanitation District
0000
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
According to sanitation flows July is typically
the busiest month
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Source Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District
bull Wastewater flows are an indicator of activity levels and peak populationbull Flows have not again reached the peak recorded in July 2010
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 15
Jul 16 Jan 17
Jan 18
0700
0900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Mar
13
Jun
13
Sep
13
Dec
13
Mar
14
Jun
14
Sep
14
Dec
14
Mar
15
Jun
15
Sep
15
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Wastewater Inflow Average Millions of Gallons Per Day (MGD) at ACSD
Monthly Average MGD July Average MGD Nov amp May Average MGD
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Jul 07 Jan 08
May 09
Jul 09
Jul 12Jan 13
Jul 15 Jul 16
Jan 17Jul 18
Nov 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ja
n 0
7
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
15
Sep
15
Jan
16
May
16
Sep
16
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
Monthly Average Occupancy
Monthly Average Occupancy July Average Occupancy Nov amp May Average Occupancy
bull Peak winter occupancy is almost as high as peak summerbull Recent low season occupancy is higher than pre-recessionbull Havenrsquot reached pre-recession high season occupancy but getting close
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Aspen Area Resort Association
75 75 74
2832
66
82
73
64
47
28
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
bull Paid occupancy typically peaks in mid-July and lower peak in JanFebbull Peak and off-season occupancy have slowly increased since 2009bull Reaching full capacity during July (practical capacity = 80-90)
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Lodging and Professionally
Managed Short-Term Rentals
Inventory and Trends
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
39554115
3898 4003
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Units
bull Total units have been flatslightly fluctuating since 2009bull Included traditional lodging professional managed short-term rental
units fractional ownership units does not include RBOs
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
1745018857
1773918558
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2009 2012 2015 2018
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined Pillows
bull Practical capacity other seasons = 80 occupancybull Overall 2018 practical guest capacity = 15000 guests
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull GROWTH hotellodge pillows DECLINE condominium pillows
2009 Pillows5162
2009 Pillows10476
2009 Pillows1637
2018 Pillows6803
2018 Pillows8377
2018 Pillows2165
-
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
HotelLodge Condominium Private Home
Pillows by Type of Unit 2009 and 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
2009 Pillows9385
2009 Pillows8065
2018 Pillows9673
2018 Pillows7761
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aspen Snowmass
Pillows by Location 2009 and 2018
bull GROWTH Aspen pillows DECLINE Snowmass Village pillows
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Deluxe rated units have declined since 2009bull Moderate and Economy units have increased since 2009
Deluxe57
Moderate36
Economy7
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2009
Deluxe50
Moderate40
Economy10
Aspen amp Snowmass Combined -Units By Rating 2018
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018
bull Most of the units inventoried were constructed prior to 1995bull Moderate units have increased since 2012
110175
590
75
394
135 176
1083
136
6
214
99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre 1954 1954-1965 1966-1975 1976-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 2016-2025
Units Constructed by Decade
Aspen Snowmass
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Rental by Owner
Inventory and Trends
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
RBO Analysis Definitions
LISTINGS - The count of listed units that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month
BOOKED LISTINGS - The count of Airbnb listings that had at least one booked day in the month
LISTING NIGHTS - The sum of all nights that were available for rent and were booked in the month
OCCUPANCY - Booked Listing Nights divided by Available Listing Nights
ROOM NIGHTS - Listing Nightsmonth multiplied by the number of bedrooms in each listing One room = 1 pillow
BOOKED ROOM NIGHTS ndash Number of available room nights that were booked during the month
Why different Owners decide when units are available
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBOs listed amp booked increased through May 2017Data does not include VRBO platform until June 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RBO Listings and Booked Listings - Oct 2014 to May 2017 (Airbnb and Homeaway only)
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Airdna April 2019
bull RBO occupancy grew along with the available listingsbull Peak occupancy rose from just over 40 to just under 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70O
ct-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
RBO Occupancy - Oct 2014 through May 2017
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Airdna April 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
RBOs Available Listings and Booked Listings Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
Available Listings Booked Listings Linear (Available Listings) Linear (Booked Listings)
bull Slow decline in listed units June 2017 ndash March 2019bull Booked listings fluctuate trendline is flatbull Remarkable stability in listings given fluidity of the market
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Airdna April 2019
641
459
646
433
664
403
597
0100200300400500600700
RBOs Occupancy Airbnb HomeAway VRBO June 2017 to March 2019
bull Seasonal occupancy appears to have stabilized since June 2017bull Winter occupancy rivals peak summer occupancybull Peak occupancy lower compared to paid lodging (gt80)bull Off season occupancy is higher compared to paid lodging (asymp30)
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source Airdna April 2019
bull Room nights are the best proxy for pillowsbull Peak winter booked (occupied) similar to July booked roomnights
4272
3666
1887
4017
2422
781
2190 2062
-
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
RBOs-Average Daily Roomnights for Airbnb HomeAway and VRBO
Total Available Booked
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Current Overnight
Visitor Capacity
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
Accommodations Type2018 PEAK SUMMER
Overnight Visitors (July)
2018 PEAK WINTER Overnight Visitors
(Jan and Feb)
2018 LOW SEASON Overnight Visitors
(May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
14846 13919 5230
Rental by Owner Units 2190 2422 781
All Overnight Accommodations 17036 16341 6011
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Peak summer overnight visitors exceeded peak winter by 705 visitorsbull Winter visitors staying in RBOs exceeded summerbull Peak season overnight visitor population is about triple Mayrsquos visitors
2018 Peak Summer Overnight
Visitors Capacity (July)
2018 Peak Winter Overnight
Visitor Capacity (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season Overnight
Visitor Capacity (May)
Traditional Lodging and Professionally Managed Units
16702 16702 14846
Rental by Owner 3478 4189 781
Total Average Peak Season Overnight Capacity
20180 20891 15627
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Source DestiMetrics Stay Aspen Snowmass Transient Inventory Study July 2018 and AirdnaCustom Report April 2019
bull Average daily capacity 2018bull RBOs 1 room = 1 pillow equivalentbull Practical capacity is 80 of maximum capacity
2018 Peak Summer (July)
2018 Peak Winter (Jan and Feb)
2018 Low Season (May)
Total Overnight Visitors 17036 16341 6011
Total Overnight Visitor Capacity 20180 20891 15627
Remaining Capacity 3144 4551 9616
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Key Findings
Continued modest growth in Pitkin County population jobs housing units
Significant population growth in Garfield County
Aspen-Snowmass peak population and occupancy bottomed out in 2009 and again in 20132014 have nearly recovered to pre-recession levels today
Skier days have been on the rise so has winter occupancy
Traditional lodging and professionally managed short-term rentals have been flatfluctuating since 2009 but occupancy has risen
RBO supply accelerated 2014-2017 then leveled off
Today RBOs can accommodate nearly 3500 visitors during peak season
Peak population is 34000 low season and 53000 peak season
Existing lodging and RBO inventory could accommodate 3000-4500 additional overnight visitors during peak season
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Past Present and Projected
Air Service AircraftFleet and Air Space
40
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Topics
41
The Aviation Forecasting Process
ASErsquos Service Region
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
Airport Role
Historical Passenger Airline Traffic
General Aviation Activity
Aviation Activity Forecasts
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
1 Collect DataReview of existing forecasts
Collect aviation and socioeconomic dataIdentify key issuestrends
Obtain input from key stakeholders
2 Prepare AnalysisTrend analysis
Market share forecastingEconometric analysisProbability analysisChoice analysis
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
The Aviation Forecasting ProcessThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 Evaluate Airport Role OampD airport
Market-Level Analysis Connecting hub
International gateway
4 Define
Key
Drivers of
Aviation
Activity
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
1 Local Data CollectionRoaring Fork Valley population of 84200
Pitkin County peak population of 33800 to 53100
Peak overnight visitor capacity of approximately 20000
2 Prepare AnalysisHistorical passenger growth trend of 20 per year between 2000 and 2018Peak winter season accounts for
more than half of annual passengersService to airline connecting hubs
5 Prepare Annual ForecastsEnplaned passengers
Air cargo
6 Translate Annual Forecasts into Aircraft Operations
Enplaned passenger load factorAverage seats per departureEnplaned cargo per departure
Aircraft fleet mix
7 Obtain FAA Approval
Forecast Approach for ASEThe key elements decisions and input for preparing forecasts for planning
8 Prepare Derivative Forecasts
3 ASErsquos Role Destination airport for visitors Origin airport for residents Spoke in airline networks
4
Define
Key
Drivers
of
Aviation
Activity
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
ASErsquos Service Region
44
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
45
ASErsquos Airport Service Region
Pitkin
Garfield Eagle
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau
The Roaring Fork Valley is the primary area within the Airport Service Region with a population of 84207 in 2017 63 of the entire region
In 2018 the number of trips per person in the Roaring Forks Valley averaged 34 (283877 enplaned passengers divided by a population of 84207 = 34)
Of the average 34 trips per person Roaring Fork Valley resident took an average of one airline trip per year while visitors accounted for the remaining 24 trips on average
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components and Drivers
Residents28
Visitors72
ASE Key Passenger Traffic Components
2018
46
Key Driversbull Underlying socioeconomic conditions (population
employment per capita income)bull Visitor infrastructure (hotel rooms)bull Cost of travel (airfares and ancillary fees)bull Route networks of hubbing airlinesbull Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and
international gateway operationsbull Alternate transportation modes (ground)
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
35 37 36
06
29
16
0
1
2
3
4
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018C
om
po
un
d a
vera
ge
gro
wth
rat
e
Residents Visitors
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Key Drivers of Airline Traffic
47
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Defining the Key Drivers of ASE Airline Traffic
41
09
35
33
29
40
54
60
63
114
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 1990-2018
48Sources Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA Forecast Guidance
bull Forecast methods used to project airport activity should reflect the underlying causal relationships that drive aviation activity
bull The demand for aviation is largely a function of demographic and economic activity
bull Aviation activity levels result from the interaction of demand and supply factors
bull Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost and competition
Historical Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 1990-2018Aspen and Selected Resort Destination Air
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Regional Economic ActivityRegional economic activity accounts for 18 to 64 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (population 64)
Predicted (employment 27) Predicted (total personal income 52)
Predicted (per capita personal income 18) Predicted (Aspen skier days 37)
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Cost of TravelThe cost of travel accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual Predicted (ASE yield -4)
Predicted ASE airfares -4) Predicted (Domestic aviation fuel cost 6)
Predicted (System aviation fuel cost 5)
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Average Annual SnowfallAveraae annual snowfall accounts for an insignificant share of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted (Snowfall 1)
Predicted (Snowfall and population 66)
Predicted (Snow and total personal income 52)
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Representative ModelmdashASE PassengersPopulation and airline yield together account for 90 of the historical variation in ASE passengers
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
ASE
En
pla
ne
d p
asse
nge
rs
Actual
Predicted from a regression model that explains 90 of the historical variation in ASEenplaned passengers
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Airport Role
53
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Passenger Airlines Serving ASEASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
United-Skywest
69
American-Skywest
18
Delta-Skywest
13
Airline Shares of Enplaned Passengers in 2018
54
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
Denver
Denver
Chicago
Chicago
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Dallas Fort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Atlanta
PhoenixOther
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2010 2018
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
Enplaned Passengers by Nonstop Flight SegmentService to Nine Markets on One Regional Airline
Affiliated with Three Airlines
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
55Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019 SkyWest Airlines wwwskywestcom
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Atlanta
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
San Francisco
Houston
DallasFort Worth
Los Angeles
Chicago
Denver
Average daily departures
Peak Month Average Daily DeparturesMarch 2018
AA
DL
UA
Aspen
Denver
San Francisco
ChicagoNewark
Los Angeles
Houston
Washington DC
United Airlinesrsquo Hubs
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Passenger Service to Airline HubsASE is a Spoke in Airline Networks
56
AspenAspen
Dallas Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Minneapolis St Paul
Detroit
Atlanta
New York
Source Skywest Airlines wwwskywestcom accessed April 2019
American Airlinesrsquo Hubs Delta Air Linesrsquo Hubs
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Regional Airline Pilot ShortageThreatens Passenger Airline Service to Small Communities
-
50000
100000
150000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
co
mm
erci
al p
ilots
Loss of 24000 US Commercial Pilots Between 2010 and 2018
57Source Federal Aviation Administration ESTIMATED ACTIVE AIRMEN CERTIFICATES HELD as of DECEMBER 31 wwwfaagov accessed April 2019
bull Outsourcing to regional airlines limited by pilot contractsbull Decrease in military pilots (Navy and Air Force expect shortages in
2020 and 2022 respectively)bull High expense of flight trainingbull Legislative changes reduced the supply of pilots
bull In 2009 the hours flown for new pilots increased to a minimum of 1500 from 250 hours
bull In 2010 the duty time rule decreased to mitigate pilot fatigue
bull In 2009 the mandatory retirement for airline pilots changed from 60 to 65 to offset decreases in the pilot workforce
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Historical Passenger
Airline Traffic
58
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Origin-Destination (OampD) Passenger Traffic Increases Despite Airfare IncreasesAspenPitkin County Airport
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3000002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Do
mestic o
ne
-way airfare p
aidO
utb
ou
nd
do
mes
tic
Oamp
D p
asse
nge
rs
Domestic OampD Passengers Average Domestic Fare
59
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
ASEs Busiest 10 Domestic OampD MarketsPassenger Traffic Increases in 9 of 10 Markets Despite Airfare Increases
- 10000 20000 30000 40000
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Domestic OampD Passengers
2018
2010
60
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
All OampD markets
Other OampD markets
Boston
Denver
Washington DC
Miami
DallasFort Worth
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Outbound domestic OampD passengers
ASE Average One-Way Domestic Airfares Paid
2018
2010
Source US Department of Transportation Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic Domestic online database access April 2019
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
SeasonalityAspenPitkin County Airport
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly average Occu
pan
cy2
01
6-2
01
8
Enp
lan
ed p
asse
nge
rs
2018 Enplaned passengersMonthly Average Occupancy 2016-2018
61
Note ASErsquos peak month is MarchSource US Department of Transportation Schedule T100 online database access April 2019
bull March is the peak month for enplaned passengers at ASE and accounts for approximately 15 of annual activitybull December through March together account for more than half of annual passengers
144
121
153
62
32
70 74
95
68
5039
92
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
ann
ual
2018 Enplaned passengers
Average Daily Roomnights Booked in 2018
ASErsquos enplaned passengers peak in the winter while local occupancy rates peak in the summer
Average daily room nights booked also peak in the summer
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
62
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Sch
edu
le d
epar
ture
s
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design Group
Group II aircraft Group III aircraft
The Airplane Design Group (ADG) is an FAA-defined grouping of aircraft types which has six groups based on wingspan and tail height
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Scheduled Departures by Airplane Design GroupAspen and Selected Resort Destination Airports
AspenPitkin County
Bozeman Montana Steamboat Springs Colorado
Jackson Wyoming
Kalispell Montana Missoula Montana Montrose Colorado Sun Valley Idaho VailEagle County Colorado
63
Note Airplane Design Group (ADG) A classification of aircraft based on wingspan and tail height When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups the higher group is used FAA Advisory Circular AC 1505300-13A February 26 2014Source OAG Worldwide Aviation Ltd online database accessed April 2019
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Passenger Airline Aircraft Fleets and OrdersSkyWest Airlines
64
Note ExpressJet formerly a subsidiary of Skywest Inc was acquired by a United Airlines venture in January 2019 Data exclude 100 ERJ145 operated by ExpressJet under a fixed-fee agreement and aircraft lease with United
(a) Leased to ExpressJet beginning in January 2019(b) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 15 new CRJ900 aircraft(c) Removed from service for Delta with the addition of 12 new E175 aircraft
Source Individual airline SEC filings from annual 10-K reports accessed April 2019
Number Percent
Regional jets CRJ200s 200 403 50 163 -16 (a)
E175s 146 294 70-76 22 12
CRJ700s (b) 109 220 65-70 129 -15 (b)
CRJ900s (c) 41 83 76 102 15 -9 (c)
Total fleet 496 1000
Removals
from fleetAircraft type Equipment
Aircraft fleet Seat
configuration
Average age
(years) Orders
SkyWest operates all scheduled flights at ASE under agreements with American Delta and United
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
General Aviation Activity
65
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
General Aviation AircraftAspen-Pitkin County Airport
66Sources Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecasts and Traffic Flow Management System Counts wwwaspmfaagov
Single engine
71
Jet2
Multi-engine
22
Helicopter5
Single engine aircraft accounted for 71 of aircraft based at ASE in 2018
Other
Other
Bombardier Global Express
Embraer
Bombardier Learjet
Bombardier Challenger
Dasault Falcon
Gulfstream
Cessna Citation
Pilatus PC-12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jet Turbine Piston
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
General Aviation OperationsAspen-Pitkin County Airport
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
Commercial General aviation Military
67
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
In 2018 21 of general aviation operations were local the remaining 79 itinerant
Itinerant Local
Sources Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS) wwwaspmfaagov
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Aviation Activity
Forecasts
68
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
FAA 2018 TAF of Enplaned PassengersAspenPitkin County Airport
272461
318167
353100
288900
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
4500002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
En
pla
ned
pas
sen
gers
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018= 13)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higherthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lowerthan FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR2018-2038 = 02)
Historical Forecast
69CAGR = Compound annual growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Comparison of ASE Planning Forecasts with the FAA 2018 TAFFAA Forecast Guidance
Locally developed forecasts for operations based aircraft and enplaned passengers are considered consistent with FAArsquos Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) if they meet the following criteria
bull Forecast differs by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period and 15 percent in the 10-year period or
bull Forecast activity levels do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project
In order to facilitate the process of approving a forecast the FAA also suggests completion of a template which covers the key forecast elements and calculates the percentage differences between the airport planning forecast and the TAF
Allow time (30 to 45 days) in the project schedule for FAA approval of the forecasts
70
Source US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport July 2001 and Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts June 2008 httpwwwfaagov
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
FAA Forecasts of Passenger Traffic GrowthASE and Selected Resort Destination Airports
26
08
15
22
18
29
22
41
24
06
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
All 9 airports
Aspen
Sun Valley
Jackson Hole
Hayden
Missoula
Kalispell
Bozeman
Montrose
Eagle
Compound annual growth rate in enplaned passengers 2018-2038
71Source Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
FAA 2018 TAF of Commercial Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
25566
28100
23000
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
350002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
Co
mm
erci
al a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =23)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 09)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 14)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 04)
Historical Forecast
72Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
FAA 2018 TAF of Total Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
42222 49307
54200
44400
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
To
tal a
ircr
aft
op
erat
ion
s Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 = -09)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 08)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 13)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 03)
Historical Forecast
73Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
FAA 2018 TAF of General Aviation Aircraft OperationsAspenPitkin County Airport
20684 23470
25800
21100
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
400002
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
ASE
GA
air
craf
t o
per
atio
ns
Historical (CAGR 2000-2018 =-29)
FAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 06)
Allowed Variance Higher thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 11)
Allowed Variance Lower thanFAA 2018 TAF (CAGR 2018-2038 = 01)
Historical Forecast
74Note Commercial aircraft operations include air carrier and air taxi CAGR = Compound average growth rateSource Federal Aviation Administration 2018 Terminal Area Forecasts published February 2019 wwwfaagov
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Key Takeaways
ASErsquos overall Airport Service Region includes Pitkin Eagle and Garfield counties with a combined population of 132724 in 2017
ASE is Spoke in airline networks a destination airport for visitors and an origin airport for residents
Residents accounted for 28 of ASE passengers in 2018 the remaining 72 are visitors
December through March together account for more than half of ASErsquos annual passengers
A shortage of regional airline pilots threatens passenger airline service to small communities
General aviation operations accounted for 48 of total operations in 2018
The FAA forecasts enplaned passengers at ASE to increase an average of 08 per year between 2018 and 2038
75
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Moderated QampA
76
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Your Questions Answered
77
Your Questions
Herebull Tonightrsquos meeting includes QampA
bull Panel John Kinney Jon Peacock Linda Perry Gabe Preston
bull Continue to send questions to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Questions and Comments
78
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Next Steps
82
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Mid-Point Evaluation
Take the survey
ASEvisioncomsurvey
You will get an email from the project team prompting you to take a survey to evaluate the meetings and interactions to date
83
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom
Your Questions Answered
84
DO YOU HAVE FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS Send them to infoasevisioncom