assessing agriculture and livestock water demand in 2025/50: food habits, income growth and spatial...

Assessing Agriculture and Livestock Water Demand in 2025/50: Food Habits, Income Growth and Spatial PatternO. P. Singh

IntroductionIrrigated crop production had made significant contribution to total foodgrain production and provided sufficient buffer-stock in the country (Evenson et al., 1999; Kumar, 2003)

~ 20% increase is attributed to expansion of net cropped area and 80% by crop yield (Bhalla et al., 1999)

Globally, there are two major water-dependent interests, which are in conflict today i.e. food security and ecological security (Postel, 1996; Falkenmark, 2004)

Researchers in past had made food demand projections for India for 2020 (Kumar, 1998; Rosegrant et al., 1995; Bhalla et al., 1999; Bansil, 1999)

IntroductionPopulation growth in rural and urban area will be the key determinant of growth in demand for food in the country in coming decades (Dyson and Hanchate, 2000)

Higher per capita incomes may increase the demand for non-cereal based food items i.e. fruits, vegetables milk, eggs, fish and meat

Long term NSSOs data on food consumption pattern suggests that there has been decline in per capita cereal consumption since early 1970s (Bansil, 1999; Rao, 1999; Kumar, 1998; Kumar and Mathur, 1997; Radhakrishna and Ravi, 1992)

Present study is an attempt to assess the state-wise demand of food items and irrigation water for 2025/2050

Objectives To estimate the state-wise current level of food consumption pattern and estimate it for 2025/2050

To estimate the state-wise livestock feed demand in 2025/2050

To estimate the state-wise seed/waste and other uses in 2025/2050

To estimate the state-wise irrigation water requirement to meet the food demand in 2025/2050

Major Indian States Covered under StudyUPBiharAssamW. BengalOrissaGujaratRajasthanPunjabHaryanaMPAPMaharashtraKarnatakaKeralaTamil Nadu

Assumptions Self-sufficiency in food demand in 2025/2050

All food demand will be meet from irrigated crop production

Post harvest losses - 1.1%, 3.0%, 4.6% and 2.2% for rice, wheat, coarse grains and pulses respectively (Kumar, 1998)

Post harvest losses - 20% of fruit and vegetable production

1.2 kg of cereal based feed required for production of one kg of meet, eggs and 0.12 kg for milk (Bhalla et al. 1999)

One banana, orange, coconut and lemon is equal to 100 grams, 100 grams, 150 grams and 30 grams respectively

Average weight of an egg is equal to the 0.05 kg

AssumptionsPaddy contains about 65% rice

Sugarcane contain about 10% sugar

Oilseeds contains about 40% oil

CROPWAT model used for the estimation of crop water requirement

~ 10% of the total crop water requirement will be conveyance losses

Irrigation water requirement for paddy is ~10213.6 m3/ha (Michael, 2001)

Methodological FrameworkTotal Agricultural Water Requirement

Drivers of Food DemandPopulation growth

Rate of urbanization

Growth in per capita income

Food consumption pattern

Level of expenditure on food and non-food items

Expenditure pattern on food items

Change in livestock feeding pattern

Indigenous animal to crossbred animals, free grazing to stall feeding

Change in post harvest losses in foodgrains, fruits and vegetables

Import of cereal based feed for animal and poultry

Current Food Consumption and Future Demand Projection

Future Food Demand Projection under different ScenariosScenarioI (well fed India): as recommended by ICMR

ScenarioII (As 1999-2000 level of food consumption):

Cereal consumption patternAs 1999-2000 level of food consumption

ScenarioIII (expenditure pattern on food items): growth in expenditure pattern on food items and their relative price

Future Food Demand ProjectionsHuman food demand 2025/2050

Cereal demand for animal feed

Change in livestock feed requirement Import of animal based product

Shift from free grazing to stall feed system

Post harvest losses in foodgrains, vegetables and fruits

Aggregate food demand under different scenarios

Assessment of Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Production (Demand Driven Approach)

Agricultural Water Requirement Water requirement for food production

Irrigation water requirement for animal product

Aggregate irrigation water requirement

Conclusions and Policy Implications Food demand projections are highly depends on the population growth, urbanisation, per capita income, test and preferences

Growth of per capita income along with shifts in consumption patterns leads demand of livestock based products

Increase in the demand of milk, meat, egg and fish would further increase the demand for cereal based feed and finally irrigation water demand

Increase in demand of fish, farmers may convert some farm land into fish pond and may divert irrigation water for fish farming leads to increase agricultural water requirement (Haryana, UP)

Conclusions and Policy ImplicationsIncrease in demand of milk and milk products, dairy farmers may shift from free grazing to stall feeding system of milk production and this would increase demand of irrigation water for green fodder production

It is required to produce less water intensive milk by using water efficient green fodder with high yielding variety of cattle

by replacing a part of the low yielding bovine population with high milk yielding crossbred animals

India would import virtual water in form of cattle feed from the international market to meet the demand of cereal based feed requirement

India would import virtual water in the form of milk and milk products from the global market

Post harvested losses of fruits and vegetables are very high. It is required to reduce the post harvest losses by introduction of appropriate storage technology

Thank you

State-wise Projected Population

State-wise Projected Urban and Rural Population

Growth of Net State Domestic Product (Per cent/Capita/Annum)Compound growth rate during 1980-81 to 1997-98 (constant price)

Chart1

0.063.09

1.093.09

1.573.09

1.983.09

2.123.09

2.863.09

2.983.09

2.993.09

3.343.09

3.533.09

3.563.09

3.63.09

3.63.09

4.283.09

4.473.09

Per Cent

GSDP

Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) At Constant (1993-94) and Current Prices

Source: EPW Research Foundation (2003) Domestic Products of States of India - 1960-61 to 2000-01, Economic and Political Weekly Foundation, Mumbai

Gross State Domestic Product at Constant (1993-94) Price (Rs Crore)

Sr No.State/UT1993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999-002000-012001-002 (a)

1Andhra Pradesh5786761114647296880967866761167955384777

2Arunachal Pradesh8748831008958991103110321106

3Assam151431557216017164871665016614177561850019073

4Bihar228122530221781269602592127926292183024931656

5Chhattiagarh14171143531479615415158951674416785

6Delhi2084123354239242702031182335303510936685

7Goa23972515270631193207393242484132

8Gujarat4919458058612466996671028754017498476657

9Hariyana2213123692242762709527483290103104532921

10Himachal Pradesh47835244556859556335679272067635

11Jammu & Kashmir63436642698273277742808885088680

12Jharkhand16197169061734417041210571937519847

13Karnataka4107943387461675030252780609146536469951

14Kerala263262850129788308903178334064365163844440298

15Madhya Pradesh3797139069414654417046377490515201047369

16Maharashtra113320116213129567137509142785147571162680167075

17Manipur1308128213321519165717671767205120562174

18Meghalaya151115671732179619072095226123452505

19Mizoram

20Nagaland1375148015821687181917461760

21Orissa18213190170200601915221689217232248122619

22Punjab302483113932433348193573937807404514238545026

23Rajasthan329703864840225447554982151833537445065855655

24Sikkim377372411456520580596

25Tamilnadu574826482667195704397609780728853918911091841

26Tripura177771770191921232341257327562896

27Uttar Pradesh804518510688244976859728799030104807108843

28West Bangal5342457060612906556270971754838089885928

29A & N Islands509561557596642598648

30Chandigarh14681613178620282159234926102756

31Pondicherry9819971077139917992023201620522138

ALL- India GDP ( CSO )78134583803189956397008310163991084272114850011939221258231

Gross State Domestic Product at Current Price (Rs Crore)

Sr No.State/UT1993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999-002000-012001-002 (a)

1Andhra Pradesh5786768923798549014795782114937123719137602

2Arunachal Pradesh874966118012081337152715981783

3Assam151431755118411210172280625558282793000134030

4Bihar228122594524483325413366238876423584625950987

5Chhattiagarh14171155621717719404216582406125405

6Delhi2084125686281893353140992469435237557547

7Goa23972838331939654921607567496908

8Gujarat4919463516718868583790906104216106427112049

9Hariyana22131262245297893564238649435354827053787

10Himachal Pradesh47835825669877558837106961198312942

11Jammu & Kashmir634369778097912410286125711396114249

12Jharkhand16197180951975221209277202671427406

13Karnataka41079479155621565176717038795696179105398

14Kerala263263187738762444604948456247625146904276182

15Madhya Pradesh3797142338478425505260057687757591172604

16Maharashtra113320130073157818177315194602213147241410258272

17Manipur130814051627191622182614318833