assessing and modeling of sustainable rice production ... · ranjan roy*, yokohama city university...
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Assessing and Modeling of Sustainable Rice Production Systems: A Multi-Stakeholder Perspective
Ranjan Roy*, Yokohama City University
Rice is the staple food for more than half of the world’s population and its production is the most important source of employment and income for rural Asians. In Bangladesh, rice is the main crop, covering about 75% of the total cropped area and it employs almost 50% of the country’s labor force, and contributes to about 10% of GDP. A substantial number of studies indicate that present rice production is not sustainable in Bangladesh in terms of environmental soundness, economic resilience (or capability) and social development. The study addresses three issues, namely development a framework for indicator development, assessment of sustainability of rice production systems, and development of a model for sustainable rice production in Bangladesh.
Introduction
Methodology for composite indicator (CI) construction Step and stage Tools/Method applied Output Step 5: Index construction, assessing internal consistency and robustness of CI
Correlation, path and stepwise multiple regression analysis
Developing a meaningful CI and determining policy options
Step 4: Normalisation, weighting, and aggregation
Max-min and standardization method, factor analysis, linear & geometric aggregation
Making data comparable, assessing weight of indicators & aggregating them
Step 3: Data screening, bivariate and multivariate analysis
Skewness, Z-score, correlation and principal component analysis
Ensuring quality and structure of the data set for methods choices
Step 2: Data collection Survey and key informant interview
Preparing a complete data set
Step 1: Developing theoretical framework and indicator
Top-down and bottom-up approaches
Developing a set of indicators
Result I: Indicator development framework Defining farm production sustainability
Understanding contextual situation
Setting goals and strategies of indicator
Discussion with experts
Prepare an initial list of indicators
Conducting online expert survey
Calculating & scrutinizing indicators
Determining potential indicators
Evaluating indicator’s three qualities by FGD
Developing new indicators
New goals can be set for changing farming systems and priorities
Exploring information and gathering
Evaluating indicator’s quality
Establishing study context
Result II: Assessment of rice production sustainability
Result III: Model of rice production sustainability Conclusion and policy implications
About half of the growers face several environmental, economic, and socio-political challenges. The irrigated and rainfed upland rice production systems were found to be the most and least sustainable, respectively. The rainfed lowland production system was more environmentally sound, followed by rainfed upland and irrigated rice. The findings of this study are expected to have knock-on effects on “green agriculture and growth”, a main strategy for promoting “green economy” in Asia and the Pacific. Policies should emphasize: increasing land productivity by adopting a multi-pronged approach, pervasively disseminating and utilizing resource conserving practices and technologies, developing grower’s human capital, and valuating integrated farming practices and environmental services. Moreover, creating a favourable environment for better policy implementation is imperative for farming sustainability transition. In terms of the overarching policy implications for sustainable rice production systems, considering major 3 out of 5 rice growing ecosystems is a limitation of this study. Climate policy integration for sustainable management of rice-based production systems is a future research area.
*E-mail: [email protected] & [email protected] (Ranjan Roy)
Where, li, x, and wi are the normalised, raw value, and weight of indicator. In addition, max (x) and min (x), μ, and σ are the maximum and minimum value, mean, and standard deviation of x.
Standardisation,
Normalisation
Max-min,
Aggregation,
Linear,
Geometric,
Developing indicator
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Irrigated Rainfed lowland Rainfed upland Mean sust. index
0.14 0.18 0.16 0.16
0.22 0.19
0.15 0.19
0.18 0.16 0.17
0.17
Environmental integrity Economic resilience Socio-political development
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Land productivity BCRatio
InputSufficiency
Production cost
NFEmployment
NManagement
Sust pract & tech
CDiversity P&DManagement
WManagement
Human capital
PParticipation
Accountability
Social Capital
Equity
Irrigated
Rainfed lowland
Rainfed upland
Mean