assessing the feasibility of economic analysis for river basin management plans in the ribble basin...
DESCRIPTION
Aims and Nature of study How to carry out an integrated appraisal of RBMP How to carry out an integrated appraisal of RBMP Focused on Ribble to provide reality checks Focused on Ribble to provide reality checks Virtual scoping study: Virtual scoping study: –focus on how aid decision-making - value added – –How will integrated appraisal work in practice? – –How to present the outputs of the various elements of the appraisal process to aid decision-making? –ssumed illustrative plausible information –Assumed illustrative plausible information no empirical basis nor policy statusno empirical basis nor policy statusTRANSCRIPT
Assessing the Assessing the Feasibility of Economic Feasibility of Economic Analysis for River Analysis for River Basin Management Basin Management Plans in the Ribble Plans in the Ribble Basin in EnglandBasin in EnglandDr Jonathan FisherDr Jonathan Fisher
Senior Water EconomistSenior Water Economist
Environment Agency Environment Agency
Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation Outline nature and aims of the studyOutline nature and aims of the study Describe integrated appraisal system for Describe integrated appraisal system for
RBMPRBMP Describe the Ribble BasinDescribe the Ribble Basin Facilitated Discussion of 5 worked Facilitated Discussion of 5 worked
examples examples Findings + way forwardFindings + way forward
Aims and Nature of studyAims and Nature of study HowHow to carry out an integrated appraisal of RBMP to carry out an integrated appraisal of RBMP Focused on Ribble to provide reality checksFocused on Ribble to provide reality checks Virtual scoping study:Virtual scoping study:
– focus on how aid decision-making - value addedfocus on how aid decision-making - value added– How will integrated appraisal work in practice?– How to present the outputs of the various
elements of the appraisal process to aid decision-making?
– Assumed illustrative plausible informationssumed illustrative plausible information
• no empirical basis nor policy statusno empirical basis nor policy status
Elements of the appraisal Elements of the appraisal systemsystem
Assess Risks not Comply (Gap)
Option Screening
Option Appraisal
Objective Refinement/Derogation
Plan Agreement
Objective specification
Inputs:Water status, Pressures, Consultation, Appraisal Framework, Appraisal Tools
Outputs:Objectives, Programme of measures, Costs and benefits
Illustrative Worked ExamplesIllustrative Worked Examples Characterisation of Risks, pressures and the Characterisation of Risks, pressures and the
Business as usual case.Business as usual case. Feasibility and effectiveness of measures.Feasibility and effectiveness of measures. Costs, cost-effectiveness and impacts,Costs, cost-effectiveness and impacts, Disproportionate costsDisproportionate costs Consultation and involvementConsultation and involvement Applicability to other BasinsApplicability to other Basins
Description of the Ribble Description of the Ribble BasinBasin
Area: Area: 2128km22128km2
Length: Length: 110km 110km
Tributaries:Tributaries: Calder, Darwen, HodderCalder, Darwen, Hodder
Land UseLand Use 90% rural90% rural
Major Urban Areas: Major Urban Areas: Preston, Blackburn, BurnleyPreston, Blackburn, Burnley
Conservation:Conservation: 28km fishery28km fishery
The Ribble Basin in EnglandThe Ribble Basin in England
Virtual ExamplesVirtual Examples Three stretches of the Ribble, Hodder Three stretches of the Ribble, Hodder
and Darwenand Darwen
Hypothetical contiguous unitHypothetical contiguous unit Hodder - upland rural issuesHodder - upland rural issues Darwen - urban issuesDarwen - urban issues Ribble - downstream receiving waterRibble - downstream receiving water
Characterisation and Risk Characterisation and Risk AssessmentAssessment
Characterisation of Basin (Annex II 1.1)
Initial results
Risk assessment of
non-compliance
Analysis of pressures
(Annex II 1.4)
Assessment of impact(Annex II 1.5)
Economic Analysis(Annex III)
Water Bodies for Appraisal
Consultation
Agreed, Consistent Objective Framework
Inc involvement
Report back
Involvement
Pressures: Point Sources:Pressures: Point Sources:Point Source Ribble Basin Reach 1
(Downstream)Reach 2
(UpstreamRural)
Reach 3(Upstream
Urban)UrbanWater industry STWdischarges
23
Combined sewer overflows 18Septic tank discharges 5 IndustrialIndustrial discharges 14 AgriculturalFarm pollution Incidents 18 Otherinstallations/activitiesWater treatment worksdischarges
6
Private STW discharges 1Mine workings 6Land fills 21 Business practices 3
Pressures: Diffuse SourcesPressures: Diffuse Sources
Pressure Ribble Basin Reach 1(Downstream)
Reach 2(Upstream
Rural)
Reach 3(Upstream
Urban)DiffuseUrban
Contaminated surface water 2 Land drainage practices 22 IndustrialDangerous substances 4 Acidification 1AgriculturalAgricultural diffuse pollution 35 Sheep dip discharge 3Agricultural practices 1Otherinstallations/activitiesContaminated Land
Significant Pressures: RibbleSignificant Pressures: Ribble
Ribble Significant? 2000
to 2
015
2015
to 2
021
2021
to 2
027
G M B G M B G M BWater Industry STW discharges Yes H M L H M L H M L
Landfill No L L L L L L L L L
Land drainage No M L L L L L L L L
Dangerous substances Yes M M L M M L M M L
Agricultural diffuse pollution Yes H H L H H L H H L
Abstraction Yes L L L L L L H M L
Overall (inc. synergies/cumulative effects) H H L H H L H H L
Likely Development in Pressure
202720212015
Likelihood of limiting achievement of quality states in future plan
periods
Characterisation: Characterisation: Outstanding IssuesOutstanding Issues
How define non-compliance?How define non-compliance? – allow for lack of data and uncertaintiesallow for lack of data and uncertainties
Pressures: Identify and Characterise key Pressures: Identify and Characterise key problem segmentsproblem segments => => develop options targeted on themdevelop options targeted on them
How assess likely developments in sig pressures?How assess likely developments in sig pressures?– Qualitative info Qualitative info – Quantitative assessmentsQuantitative assessments
How assess impacts of the pressures?How assess impacts of the pressures?
Option AppraisalOption Appraisal
Cost Assessments
Initial results
Option AppraisalImpact Assessments
Appraisal Tools
Appraised Options
Options for testing
Consultation
Report back
Involvement
Role and purposes of cost-Role and purposes of cost-effectiveness analysiseffectiveness analysis
Systematic and even-handed assessments Systematic and even-handed assessments and treatment of costs and effectiveness of and treatment of costs and effectiveness of options across sectorsoptions across sectors
Help derive packages to achieve various Help derive packages to achieve various water states in RBMPs and HMWB water states in RBMPs and HMWB designation by 2015, 2021 and 2027designation by 2015, 2021 and 2027
Input costs of these packages to determine Input costs of these packages to determine whether or not they are disproportionate (for whether or not they are disproportionate (for derogation decisions - see next eg)derogation decisions - see next eg)
Packages of Measures for Packages of Measures for various statesvarious states
G2015G2015 M2015-->G2021M2015-->G2021 B2015-->M2021-->G2027B2015-->M2021-->G2027 B2015-->M2027-->M2027B2015-->M2027-->M2027
Assessing Effects and costs of Assessing Effects and costs of optionsoptions
Collate info (eg BAT reviews, stakeholder Collate info (eg BAT reviews, stakeholder views):views):– to identify targeted options to identify targeted options – to indicate their effects on water status + to indicate their effects on water status +
reducing risks of non-compliancereducing risks of non-compliance
Estimate Financial costs (NPV or EAV)Estimate Financial costs (NPV or EAV)– pro formas pro formas – scrutiny - benchmark cost estimatesscrutiny - benchmark cost estimates– ?Scope to reduce costs - extend deadline??Scope to reduce costs - extend deadline?
Assessing wider Impacts of Assessing wider Impacts of Options Options
Describe other impacts + explain why Describe other impacts + explain why additional:additional:– Economic impacts Economic impacts
• sectoral or regional employmentsectoral or regional employment• exchequer costsexchequer costs• impacts on inflationimpacts on inflation
– who pays who pays – Non-water environmental impactsNon-water environmental impacts
• impacts on natural habitatsimpacts on natural habitats
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: RibbleRibble
Target Aggregate risk reduction for nutrients = 50%Effectiveness Cost
(euro k)Measure
2015 2021 2027 U Lag? EAV
OtherImpacts
STW mgtoptimise
20% 20% 20% +/-5%
No 10
STW Opscheme
50% 50% 50% +/-10%
No 300
STW Capscheme
50% 50% 50% +/-10%
Yes? 200
Agri generalbinding rule
10% 50% 70% +/-25%
Yes 60 ImprovedWildlife(bufferstrips)
Agri nutrientcharge
15% 30% 50% +/-25%
Yes 250
Agri EnvAssistance
10% 20% 40% +/-25%
Yes? 100 ImprovedWildlife
Cost-Effectiveness: Cost-Effectiveness: Outstanding issuesOutstanding issues
How assess effects of options on water status? How assess effects of options on water status? How allow for uncertainties about effects on key How allow for uncertainties about effects on key
parameters (esp biological) and costs?parameters (esp biological) and costs? How assess costs and other impacts of options?How assess costs and other impacts of options? How derive summary CE indicators?How derive summary CE indicators? How assess and derive CE packages and balance:How assess and derive CE packages and balance:
– Costs/ImpactsCosts/Impacts– Lagged effects Lagged effects – Uncertainties about effects and costs Uncertainties about effects and costs
Objective RefinementObjective Refinement: : Disproportionate costs?Disproportionate costs?
Benefits Transfer:Quantitative
£ assessment
Initial results
Objective Refinement Stated Preference
Analysis
Stakeholder views
Qualitative assessment
Refined Appraisals
Appraised Options
Packages of Water states
Consultation
Report back
Involvement
Matrix for Appraising Matrix for Appraising PackagesPackages
Effects on water statusEffects on water status Costs (EAV pa)Costs (EAV pa) Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts
– water quality - aquatic ecologywater quality - aquatic ecology– non-water ecology/natural habitatsnon-water ecology/natural habitats
Recreation, angling etcRecreation, angling etc Wider economic costs and impactWider economic costs and impact
– Economic regenerationEconomic regeneration
Social/distributional Social/distributional Consistency with other policies (eg land use)Consistency with other policies (eg land use)
Appraisal of P Removal and Appraisal of P Removal and agreement with dairy agreement with dairy farmersfarmersBAU Problem Package effects Costs
B2015 ->M2021-> M2027
Excess nutrients M2015->G2021->G2027
EAV 70K pa(Euro)
Impacts Qualitative Quantitative ValuationEnvironment:Ecology of waterbody
Improved waterquality andaquatic ecology
Not quantifiable Notquantified
Angling Improved fisheryquality T2 – T1
8km improvedfor 250 anglers
30k pa
Regeneration Attract investors Not quantified Notquantified
Disproportionate costs: Disproportionate costs: Outstanding issuesOutstanding issues
How assess systematically and How assess systematically and consistently and present wide-ranging consistently and present wide-ranging impacts?impacts?
How present summary qualitative info How present summary qualitative info on non-monetisable impacts on non-monetisable impacts
Identify scope of cases where detailed Identify scope of cases where detailed analyses neededanalyses needed
Appropriate Consultation at Appropriate Consultation at Each StageEach Stage
Compliance Risk Assessment
Option Screening
Option Appraisal
Objective Refinement
Plan Agreement
Objective specification
Inputs: Status, Pressures, Consultation, Appraisal Framework, Appraisal Tools
Outputs:Objectives, Programme of measures, Costs and benefits
Consultation: Outstanding Consultation: Outstanding IssuesIssues
Clarify WFD decision-making contexts Clarify WFD decision-making contexts – mix of local and national decisionsmix of local and national decisions– Issues for discussion/degrees of freedomIssues for discussion/degrees of freedom=> boundaries + role for local and national => boundaries + role for local and national
consultation/involvement consultation/involvement
Take account of existing resources and capabilities - Take account of existing resources and capabilities - both in government agencies and stakeholders both in government agencies and stakeholders (stakeholder fatigue)(stakeholder fatigue)
Proportionate wrt contentiousness of caseProportionate wrt contentiousness of case Link with consultation on related plansLink with consultation on related plans
Lessons from the Ribble + Lessons from the Ribble + Applicability to Other BasinsApplicability to Other Basins
Overall appraisal system broadly OKOverall appraisal system broadly OK– Good outcome oriented focus on decision-makers needs Good outcome oriented focus on decision-makers needs
and how to aid themand how to aid them– Highlighted important links between elements Highlighted important links between elements – Focus on how to identify and refine optionsFocus on how to identify and refine options– Highlight imp challenges of appraising agricultureHighlight imp challenges of appraising agriculture
• Need input WFD concerns into current debate on Need input WFD concerns into current debate on CAP reform and AEP at EC and national levelsCAP reform and AEP at EC and national levels
Ribble = Broadly applicable to other basins and Ribble = Broadly applicable to other basins and other pressures (eg significant low flows) other pressures (eg significant low flows)
• But may need to re-examine re groundwaterBut may need to re-examine re groundwater
Issues for Way forwardIssues for Way forward Need Integrate (eg with HMWBs and with other plans)Need Integrate (eg with HMWBs and with other plans) Need find practical solutions - simplifyNeed find practical solutions - simplify Focus on most important aspects/elementsFocus on most important aspects/elements Be proportionate and Iterative: Start with general broad Be proportionate and Iterative: Start with general broad
brush assessments; then more detailed where neededbrush assessments; then more detailed where needed Explicitly Explicitly present ranges and uncertainties + assumptionspresent ranges and uncertainties + assumptions
As important as research to fill gaps, will be sorting out how As important as research to fill gaps, will be sorting out how to present and communicate (for consultation) the available to present and communicate (for consultation) the available info (from research) with its inevitable uncertaintiesinfo (from research) with its inevitable uncertainties