assistant professor and engineering studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...walkerpresentation... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Joan Walker, Assistant ProfessorCivil and Environmental Engineering
Global Metropolitan Studies
![Page 2: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Environment
Economy
Equity
Quality of Life
Technology
Infrastructure
Incentives
Marketing
2
![Page 3: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Examples of programs to promote
sustainable behaviors
Modeling behavior
Example of behavioral experiment and model
Current research
Conclusion
![Page 4: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Berkeley program
Larger garbage cans cost more
FREE! Recycling
FREE! Green Waste
57% Diverted
![Page 6: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Efforts of Southern California Edison to encourage energy conservation
Emails and text messages regarding energy use
Ambient Orb: red during high energy, green during low
Thomson (2007)
No effect
40% reduction during peak periods
![Page 7: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Ford efficiency leaves
Honda Insight Hybrid – leaves + score
Impact?
Focusing on mpg
7 to 14% less
gas consumption
Honda with scoring
Avg
10%, max 20%
![Page 8: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Feedback approach 1:
Household energy use Avg
energy use in neighborhood
Feedback approach 2:
Same as above, but with
High users reduce,Low users increase
High users reduce more,Low users don’t change
![Page 9: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CO2 emissions
reduced by 100,000 tons
$18M
saved
![Page 10: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Boston Area
Reality TV Competition between 3 towns
177 households saved 52 tons of CO2
![Page 11: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Energy Efficiency + Social Networking
![Page 12: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Sticks and carrots
Power of information and feedback
… provided in creative ways
Visualizing impact
Augmented mindfulness
Social norms
![Page 13: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
People act in their own interest
They can objectively evaluate all alternatives
available to them and then choose the one that is best for them.
![Page 15: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Toll Lanes $1.95
Free Lanes$0.00
Toll Lanes $9.55
Free Lanes$0.00
![Page 16: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Detailed analysis shows works with some
groups, backfires with others (Costa and Kahn, 2010)
![Page 17: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Probability(person
n recycles soda can)
= f( characteristics of the person & attributes of the environment )
![Page 18: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Basic concepts
Faced with a set of alternatives (consumption
bundles)
Consumers are able to assign preferences that
rank these alternatives in terms of attractiveness
Utility function represents mathematically these
preferences.
Consumers make choices that maximize their
utility (subject to a budget constraint)
18
![Page 19: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
● Utility function for bus
– WTbus waiting time (hours)– TTbus total travel time (hours)– Cbus total cost of trip (dollars)
●Parameters represent tastes, and vary by education, gender, trip purpose, etc.
●Cannot be measured exactly
0 1 2 3bus bus bus busU WT TT C
19
0 1 2 3 /bus bus bus busU WT TT C Income
0 1 2 3 /bus bus bus bus busU WT TT C Income
![Page 20: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Choice from among
auto ,bus, walk
20
,
, , ,( )
auto n
auto n bus n walk n
V
V V VeP auto
e e e
, 2 , 3 ,
, 1 , 2 , 3 ,
, 2 ,
//
auto n auto auto n auto n n auto
bus n bus bus n bus n bus n n bus
walk n walk walk n walk
U TT C IncomeU WT TT C IncomeU TT
V
![Page 21: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Gather data from a sample of people
His/her mode choice to campus
His/her sociodemographics
His/her home and work location
( travel time and travel cost of auto, bus, walk)
Estimate the s that best explain the
observed choices.
![Page 22: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Joe has 3 options to come to campus
Auto:
4 min. walk, 8 minutes in car, $4.50
Bus:
15 min. walk, 5 min. wait, 10 min in bus, $4.00
Walk:
40 min. walk
His income is $80,000
What is Joe’s probability of driving?
Plug into
What if campus doubles parking fees?
Update parking cost
,
, , ,( )
auto n
auto n bus n walk n
V
V V VeP auto
e e e
( ) 0.7P auto
( ) 0.9P auto
![Page 23: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Marginal rate of substitution between time and cost
Value of Time
Not all time is equal
Value of wait time :
Value of in vehicle time :
time time
cost cost
$ Time
Cost
bus
bus
UMUMRS UMU hour
_ _ cos... ...bus time wait bus time inveh bus t busU TimeWait TimeInVeh Cost
cos... ...bus time bus t busU Time Cost
_ costime wait t
_ costime inveh t
![Page 24: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Cross between psychology and economics
Focus on what really
influences decisions
as opposed to what we think
influences them
Emphasis on refuting rationality
Clever experiments
Hot area
Dan Arieli’s
Predictably Irrational
Richard Thaler
and Cass Sunstein’s
Nudge
![Page 25: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
What percent of drivers thing they are above
average?▪
90%
What percentage of Professors think they are
better than the average professor?▪
94%
![Page 26: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The Power and Value of Green
in Promoting Sustainable Behaviors
![Page 27: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
![Page 28: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
“Experimental Social Science Laboratory”
Subjects paid $15/hour
Our experiment
312 respondents
28
![Page 29: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Auto ownership
Mode choice
Route choice
![Page 30: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Scenario
Suburban house
Trip to work: 30 minutes by car, 60 minutes by transit
.
Conventional?
Hybrid?
No Car?
![Page 31: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Estimate t‐test p‐value
Travel time (hours) ‐4.317 ‐21.3 0.00Travel time variance (hours) ‐2.400 ‐3.6 0.00Cost ($) ‐0.490 ‐10.5 0.00Safety dummy 0.620 12.8 0.00FREE! route dummy 0.640 4.8 0.00GHG emissions (pounds/trip) ‐0.069 8.0 0.00
Number of observations 334 subjects * 5 responses eachAdjusted rho‐square 0.412
33
1 2 3 6...r r r r r rU TravelTime TravelTimeVar Cost GHG
![Page 34: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
VALUE OF GREEN = $0.14/POUNDVALUE OF TIME =
$8.81/HOUR
in units of cost/units of emissionsemissions emissions
cost cost
Marginal rate of substitution ( ) between emissions and cost
emissions cost
MRSUMU
UMU
... 0.490(toll cost in $)
0.069(greenhouse gas emissions in pounds/trip) -4.317(travel time in hours)...
U
34
![Page 35: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Students value their time (on average)
between $6.50‐$9.00/hour
Student value green (on average)
between $0.10‐$0.40/pound of CO2
Fairly consistent across many
variations
Females more green than males
Social influences positively impact being green
![Page 36: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
$
$$
$
![Page 38: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Assistant Professor and Engineering Studiessustainability.berkeley.edu/...WalkerPresentation... · utility (subject to a budget constraint) 18 Utility function for bus – WT bus](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022043022/5f3dfc91fda39135dd472640/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Why concern regarding sustainability?
People!
Why behavioral science?
Human response often dictates success or failure of policy
Cannot force actions
Anticipate actions of people, firms, developers, government
Challenging
Dealing with humans…
heterogeneous, irrational
Ignoring it is not an answer…
must develop useful tools
Requires multidisciplinary effort
39