AST’s Research Roadmap

1.1 Orbital

1.3 NAS Integration

1. Space Traffic Management & Operations

1. Space Traffic Management & Operations

1.4 Spaceport Operations

1.2 Suborbital

1.5 Integrated Air/Space Traffic Management

3. Human Spaceflight3. Human Spaceflight

3.1 Aerospace Phys & Medicine

3.2 ECLSS & Habitability

3.3 Human Factors

3.4 Human Rating

3.5 Personnel Training

2.2 Vehicle Safety Analyses

2.3 Vehicle Safety Systems & Techs

2.5 Vehicle Ops Safety

2.4 Payload Safety

2.1 Ground System & Ops Safety Techs

2. Space Transportation Ops, Technologies & Payloads

2. Space Transportation Ops, Technologies & Payloads

4.1 Markets

4.2 Policy

4.4 Regulation

4.3 Law

4. Space Transportation Industry Viability

4. Space Transportation Industry Viability

4.5 Cross-Cutting Topics

On the web at www.coe-cst.org

under the “Publications”

tab.

COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES & STUDIESANALYSES & STUDIES

22

CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN ON THE ROLE OF DATA ON THE ROLE OF DATA

AND THEORY IN AND THEORY IN STRATEGY AND STRATEGY AND

INNOVATIONINNOVATION

33

44

“Strategy and innovation are somewhere between unguided trial-and-error experimentation and rules-based science.”

55

“We train managers and do research about management

[with] the belief that decisions should be grounded in

solid analysis of data.”

[Data-based analyses] “rely on an implicit theory:

The past is a good predictor of the future.”

66

“The game is changing, meaning

what was successful in the past would no longer

guarantee success in the future.”

77

“The level of one's insight is not strictly a function of the level of

one's access to unique or proprietary information.”

“Armed with the right concepts, anyone can produce insights that surpass those of analysts who are knee-deep in industry

minutiae.”

88

“The only way to look into the future

is to use these sorts of theories, because

conclusive data is only available about the past.”

“Good theory provides a robust way to understand important

developments, even when data is limited.”

99

“Theory is even more helpful when there is an abundance of

data.”

“With more information available,

it is harder to discern what information really matters.”

“Theory helps to block out the noise and to amplify the

signal.”

1010

“Many people who make their livings providing advice

about the future express deep skepticism about

theory-based prognostication.”

COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES & STUDIESANALYSES & STUDIES

1111

Targeted Barriers of Entry

Capability Demonstration

Technology Development

licensed to

NASAResearcher

sTechnologies

IP

Entrepreneur

employs

owned by

leading to

with royalties to

who develop

Customers & ProfitsVenture

Capitalists

Angels

Start-up Company

A Growing Company

providing initial funds

for

attracting

running the

providing next level of funding

for

if successful, becoming

ROI

A $20M Company

IPO, M&A

seeking start-up funds

fromhelping

grow the

if Round B-C

successful, becoming

if enough, leading

to

selling the

sold by

for the

Goods & Services

producing

USG Agencies

working with

permittingto the

if initial success, seeking more funds

from

EpistemologyEpistemology

Industry Modeling & Strategic PlanningIndustry Modeling & Strategic Planning

Economics & FinanceEconomics & FinanceManagement & ConsultingManagement & Consulting

Political Science & Policy

Political Science & Policy

EpistemologyEpistemology

•The Usefulness of Models (Taleb)•Increases Understanding•Easier to Remember•Simplifies by Necessity

•3 Types of Scientific Literature (Kuhn)•Journal Articles•Text Books•Popularizations

•Evolution of Scientific Investigation (Johnson)•Joseph Priestley vs. Antoine Lavoissier

•Definition: The Nature, Scope, Limitations of Knowledge.

Political Science & Policy

Political Science & Policy

•Commercial Development Policy History. (Hart)•“U.S. policymakers, particularly at the state and local

levels, have been groping toward an explicit entrepreneurship policy for at least a couple of decades. Their experiments have typically been pragmatic, inspired by immediate needs and pressures and by one another's examples, rather than by a grand theoretical design.”

•Space Power Perspectives•ISS (Cathedral) - Commercial Space (Common Bazaar).

•Policies Of Conflicting Interests (Hertzfeld)•National Security vs. Commercial Space

Economics & FinanceEconomics & Finance

•Finance Is The Practical Application Of Economics.

•Rationality of Markets Is Highly Debatable.•Provides Important Perspectives On Industry.•Lack Of Consensus Makes Decision-making Very Hard.•“If You Put X Economists In A Room, You Get 2x Opinions.”

Management & ConsultingManagement & Consulting

BUSINESS CONSULTING INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

LEVELS1980 - 18,000

2005 - 180,000 (10x)MBA DEGREES EARNED

1968 - 18,0001988 - 70,000 (3.9x)2008 - 140,000 (2x)

BIZ CONSULTING EMPLOYMENT OF NEW GRADUATES

25% MBAs @ Top Biz Schools16% BAs @ Elite Universities

•WHAT IS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING?• NOT a discipline.• A collection of unsolved problems and

hidden agendas.• Asking the right questions is more

important than finding the right answers.

• Issues temporarily placated, not resolved.

• Offers (pretended technological) solutions to what are moral and political problems.

•MBA: TRAINING vs. EDUCATION• Emphasis on technique, not theory• In formal evaluations, those without

MBAs performed better than those with MBAs.

◄Porter & McKibbin [1988]: “Key managers pay little or no attention to [academic business] research or its findings.”

THE BOTTOM LINE

USG needs to be “smart buyers” of

mgt consulting services.

•Industry Frameworks, Structures•Industry Structural Analysis (Porter)•Disruption Innovation Theory (Christensen)

•Game Theory Value Net (Brandenburger & Nalebuff)

•Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers)•10 Schools of Strategic Mgt (Mintzberg)

•Industry Frameworks, Structures•Industry Structural Analysis (Porter)•Disruption Innovation Theory (Christensen)

•Game Theory Value Net (Brandenburger & Nalebuff)

•Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers)•10 Schools of Strategic Mgt (Mintzberg)

Industry Modeling & Strategic PlanningIndustry Modeling & Strategic Planning

Need for Commercial Space Industry Analyses & Studies

• Policy tends to by “pragmatic, inspired by immediate needs and pressures and by one another's examples, rather than by a grand theoretical design.” - David Hart, "The Emergence of Entrepreneurship Policy"

• USG Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Regarding Commercial Space Industry… • Currently Relies Heavily Upon Personal Experience

and Data-Based Studies & Methodologies• Could Benefit from Theory-Based Analyses &

Structures• Approach: Make Use All Analytical Options To Provide

More Nuanced Perspectives to Support Decision-Makers• Goals: Strategic Development of CST Industry Policy &

Acquisition 1919

Scope of Commercial Space Industry Analyses & Studies

• Accounting• Economics• Finance• Human Resources• Management (Strategic

~) • Marketing• Operations• Multiple-Disciplinary

• Other• General Business• Information Technology• Insurance• International Business• Law• Real Estate and Urban

Land Economics• Risk Management• Work and Organizations

2020

Recent Work

NASA, FAA & Other USG Reports• 1997 Commercial Space

Transportation Study• 2002 DoC OSC Space Market

Opportunities• 2003 ASCENT Study performed by Futron

Corporation (D. Webber) funded by NASA MSFC

• 2008 2nd NGEC Entrepreneurial Opportunity in Lunar Development

• 2008 Oxford Analytical "Understanding the Space Economy"

• 2010 FAA Commercial Human Spaceflight Workshop

• 2010 Near Earth LLC “Supporting Commercial Space Development”

• 2011 NASA Commercial Space Transportation Market Assessment Report

• FAA Launch Forecast Reports (Annual)• FAA Economic Impact Reports (Biannual)

US Industry, State, Academic, & Int'l Reports

• 2008 Tauri Report for PSF• 2009 Toffler B&W Paper• 2010 Paper: Measuring the Impact of Space Tourism Activities

• 2011 Tauri Report to Space Florida: Reusable Suborbital Market Characterization

• 2011 MD The Business of Space Science• OECD Space Economy at a Glance Reports (2007, 2011)

• “Enabling Complementary Commercial and Government Enterprises In Space” by Dr. M. Griffin presented at the 2011 IAC.

2121

Current Theory-Based Studies

2222

Commercial Space Market

Disruption Innovation Theory (Christensen)

Industry Structural Analysis(Porter)

Suborbital Vehicles

• "Suborbital Market Overview And Application Of Disruption Theory" by K. Davidian, 2010 IAC.

• COMING SOON: “Suborbital Research Market Industry Structural Analysis" by K. Davidian and C. Conrad.

Orbital Launch

Vehicles (Cargo & Crewed)

• "Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Commercial Cargo and Crew Space Transportation Markets" by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, 2011 IAC.

• "An Industry Structural Analysis and Strategy Insights for the Commercial Crew Transportation Industry" by D. Kaiser, I. Christiansen, J. Foust and K. Davidian, AIAA Space 2011.

On-Orbit Spacecraft

• "Applying Disruption Innovation Theory in Emerging Markets for Crew On-Orbit Transportation" by I. Christiansen, K. Davidian, D. Kaiser and J. Foust, AIAA Space 2011.

• "Industry Structural Analysis Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Sector" by B. Cheetham, 2010 IAC.

• "Strategic Evaluation Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Transportation Industry Structure And Status" by B. Cheetham, 2011 IAC.

Nano-Sats • “Market Characterization: Launch of Very-Small and Nano-Sized Payloads Enabled By New Launch Vehicles” by I. Christiansen, D. Vaccaro and D. Kaiser, 2010 IAC.

Multi-Market

• "Are Commercial Space Transportation Industries Emerging?" by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, 2011 IAC.

• Next Steps: Application of Game Theory Frameworks, Application of “Diffusion of Innovations” Research

Summary

• Current Portfolio of Industry Analyses are Heavily Data-Based

• Addition of Theory-Based Analyses With Data-Based Studies Can Paint a More Nuanced Picture

• Ultimate Goal is Better Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Decisions

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