audi saradar - stc and mobily - company update - oct 2012.pdf

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1 October 22, 2012 COMPANY UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS INVESTING IN FUTURE REVENUES On 25/9/2011 and 12/11/2011 we initiated coverage on Mobily and STC. Both companies have managed to exceed our estimates benefiting from the remarkable growth in the Saudi Telecom sector. We remain bullish on the sector due to the growing momentum of the broadband market, both mobile and fixed. STC and Mobily compete over the anticipated growth of the market, yet hold distinct competitive advantages. Conversely, both are jeopardized by the introduction of MVNOs in KSA. We revise our fair values of STC and Mobily to SAR 48.7/share and SAR 83.7/share up from SAR 38.2/share and SAR 74.6/share, respectively. The revised fair values offer an upside potential of 17.3% for STC, and 19% for Mobily and therefore our ACCUMULATE rating for both stocks. Key downside risks to our valuation are: 1) Intense competition in the mobile broadband segment and 2) un-resolved spectrum issues in KSA. In addition, STC’s bottom line is vulnerable to F/X fluctuations. Despite STC’s extensive international portfolio, we still believe that its core Saudi asset remains to lead its growth direction. Symptoms of domestic recovery were shown during the course of the year, and according to our estimates we expect KSA revenues to provide 70% of 2012 total revenues. The main growth driver of STC’s Saudi unit is the fixed broadband segment of the market, to which we mainly attribute the 5-year expected CAGR of 5.5%. The bundled services that STC can provide to the Saudi audience place it at a distinctive comparative advantage to its local rivals. STC trades at an attractive PE13e of 7.9x and 2012e dividend yield of 4.8%. We highlight STC’s potential in expanding its dividend payout however this is highly subjective to the company’s expansionary strategy. We project higher payouts in 2013 translating into a 7.2% dividend yield until an official announcement of a certain M&A activity. Mobily, on the other hand, is focusing on diversifying its revenue streams as an attempt to weather the heightened competitive pressures of the Saudi mobile market. A new organic source would be hosting an MVNO on its network benefitting from incremental leasing revenues (to be operational by Q3-13 according to CEO Al-Kaf ). Dominating the majority of mobile broadband users also bodes well for Mobily’s revenues providing a healthy growth trajectory. We forecast a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.9% accompanied with a long-term EBITDA margin of 35%. We assume continuous de-gearing, and an apparent progressive dividend policy greatly assisted by a 5-year expected free cash flow CAGR of 9%. Mobily trades at a PE13e of 7.7x accompanied with a 2012e and 2013e dividend yield of 6.0% and 7.8% respectively; an excellent risk/reward profile. COMPANY UPDATE Kristle-Jo Sreik Equity Analyst [email protected] Youssef Nizam, CFA Head of Equity Research [email protected] Stock Data Ticker STC AB Current Price (SAR) 41.5 Fair Value (SAR) 48.7 Upside Potential 17.3% Rating Accumulate Bloomberg Median Target Price (SAR) 52.8 Market Cap (SAR mn) 83,000 Number of Shares (mn) 2,000 52 week Low (SAR) 33.0 52 week High (SAR) 44.1 Stock Data Ticker EEC AB Current Price (SAR) 70.5 Fair Value (SAR) 83.7 Upside Potential 19% Rating Accumulate Bloomberg Median Target Price (SAR) 85.2 Market Cap (SAR mn) 49,350 Number of Shares (mn) 700 52 week Low (SAR) 49.9 52 week High (SAR) 71.5 EQUITY RESEARCH ENTITY OF AUDI SARADAR GROUP COMPANY UPDATE - SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT FINANCIAL DATA Saudi Telecom 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e Revenues (SAR million) 55,662 60,657 64,841 68,354 EBITDA (SAR million) 20,024 21,836 23,343 24,266 EBITDA Margin 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 35.5% Net Profit (SAR million) 7,729 9,228 10,494 11,374 EPS (in SAR) 3.86 4.61 5.25 5.69 P/E (x) 10.7 9.0 7.9 7.3 DPS (in SAR) 2.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 Dividend Yield 4.8% 4.8% 7.2% 9.6% Etihad Etisalat 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e Revenues (SAR million) 20,052 23,701 25,948 28,301 EBITDA (SAR million) 7,455 8,532 9,289 10,132 EBITDA Margin 37.2% 36.0% 35.8% 35.8% Net Profit (SAR million) 5,084 5,877 6,432 7,056 EPS (in SAR) 7.26 8.40 9.19 10.08 P/E (x) 9.7 8.4 7.7 7.0 DPS (in SAR) 3.25 4.25 5.50 6.50 Dividend Yield 4.6% 6.0% 7.8% 9.2%

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Audi Saradar - STC and Mobily - Company Update - Oct 2012

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1

EQUITY RESEARCH

COMPANY UPDATE

October 22, 2012

COMPANY UPDATE

HIGHLIGHTS

INVESTING IN FUTURE REVENUESOn 25/9/2011 and 12/11/2011 we initiated coverage on Mobily and STC. Both companies have managed to exceed our estimates benefiting from the remarkable growth in the Saudi Telecom sector. We remain bullish on the sector due to the growing momentum of the broadband market, both mobile and fixed. STC and Mobily compete over the anticipated growth of the market, yet hold distinct competitive advantages. Conversely, both are jeopardized by the introduction of MVNOs in KSA.

We revise our fair values of STC and Mobily to SAR 48.7/share and SAR 83.7/share up from SAR 38.2/share and SAR 74.6/share, respectively. The revised fair values offer an upside potential of 17.3% for STC, and 19% for Mobily and therefore our ACCUMULATE rating for both stocks. Key downside risks to our valuation are: 1) Intense competition in the mobile broadband segment and 2) un-resolved spectrum issues in KSA. In addition, STC’s bottom line is vulnerable to F/X fluctuations.

Despite STC’s extensive international portfolio, we still believe that its core Saudi asset remains to lead its growth direction. Symptoms of domestic recovery were shown during the course of the year, and according to our estimates we expect KSA revenues to provide 70% of 2012 total revenues. The main growth driver of STC’s Saudi unit is the fixed broadband segment of the market, to which we mainly attribute the 5-year expected CAGR of 5.5%. The bundled services that STC can provide to the Saudi audience place it at a distinctive comparative advantage to its local rivals. STC trades at an attractive PE13e of 7.9x and 2012e dividend yield of 4.8%. We highlight STC’s potential in expanding its dividend payout however this is highly subjective to the company’s expansionary strategy. We project higher payouts in 2013 translating into a 7.2% dividend yield until an official announcement of a certain M&A activity.

Mobily, on the other hand, is focusing on diversifying its revenue streams as an attempt to weather the heightened competitive pressures of the Saudi mobile market. A new organic source would be hosting an MVNO on its network benefitting from incremental leasing revenues (to be operational by Q3-13 according to CEO Al-Kaf ). Dominating the majority of mobile broadband users also bodes well for Mobily’s revenues providing a healthy growth trajectory. We forecast a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.9% accompanied with a long-term EBITDA margin of 35%. We assume continuous de-gearing, and an apparent progressive dividend policy greatly assisted by a 5-year expected free cash flow CAGR of 9%. Mobily trades at a PE13e of 7.7x accompanied with a 2012e and 2013e dividend yield of 6.0% and 7.8% respectively; an excellent risk/reward profile.

COMPANY UPDATEKristle-Jo SreikEquity [email protected]

Youssef Nizam, CFAHead of Equity [email protected]

Stock Data

Ticker STC AB

Current Price (SAR) 41.5

Fair Value (SAR) 48.7

Upside Potential 17.3%

Rating Accumulate

Bloomberg Median Target Price

(SAR)

52.8

Market Cap (SAR mn) 83,000

Number of Shares (mn) 2,000

52 week Low (SAR) 33.0

52 week High (SAR) 44.1

Stock Data

Ticker EEC AB

Current Price (SAR) 70.5

Fair Value (SAR) 83.7

Upside Potential 19%

Rating Accumulate

Bloomberg Median Target Price

(SAR)

85.2

Market Cap (SAR mn) 49,350

Number of Shares (mn) 700

52 week Low (SAR) 49.9

52 week High (SAR) 71.5

EQUITY RESEARCH

ENTITY OF AUDI SARADAR GROUP

COMPANY UPDATE - SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT

FINANCIAL DATA

Saudi Telecom 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e

Revenues (SAR million) 55,662 60,657 64,841 68,354

EBITDA (SAR million) 20,024 21,836 23,343 24,266

EBITDA Margin 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 35.5%

Net Profit (SAR million) 7,729 9,228 10,494 11,374

EPS (in SAR) 3.86 4.61 5.25 5.69

P/E (x) 10.7 9.0 7.9 7.3

DPS (in SAR) 2.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Dividend Yield 4.8% 4.8% 7.2% 9.6%

Etihad Etisalat 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e

Revenues (SAR million) 20,052 23,701 25,948 28,301

EBITDA (SAR million) 7,455 8,532 9,289 10,132

EBITDA Margin 37.2% 36.0% 35.8% 35.8%

Net Profit (SAR million) 5,084 5,877 6,432 7,056

EPS (in SAR) 7.26 8.40 9.19 10.08

P/E (x) 9.7 8.4 7.7 7.0

DPS (in SAR) 3.25 4.25 5.50 6.50

Dividend Yield 4.6% 6.0% 7.8% 9.2%

2October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

EQUITY RESEARCH

WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE TELECOM LANDSCAPE OF THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA?

Growing momentum for post-paid services

The Saudi mobile market witnessed a growing number of mobile subscribers albeit at a decelerated growth rate. The total number of subscriptions grew to reach 54.5 mn in the H1-12 indicative of a 191% penetration rate. A positive anomaly observed was the growing migration of pre-paid subscribers to post-paid services which aids in lifting ARPU levels. We expect the market to expand by over 2.5 mn and 2.2 mn customers in 2012 and 2013, respectively. We reiterate the well-known notion of the attractive demographics of KSA, given that 29% of the population is below 14 years old. This is a worthy fact supporting our base case.

Chart 1: Mobile Subscriptions in KSA (in mn)

Source: CITC

Stagnant fixed line subscriptions amid growing demand for complementary broadband services

Demand for fixed telephone lines has been stagnant during the course of the year, contrast to the growing fixed broadband subscriptions whereby we estimate the penetration rate to be at 38.8% of households currently. While comparing KSA’s status among selected European countries (figures as at end of 2011), it is evident that there is organic potential arising from that segment as KSA approaches the developed countries’ standards.

Chart 2: Fixed Household Broadband Penetration as at end of 2011

Source: ITU, EuroStat, CIA Factbook, ASIB estimates

According to CITC, the number of fixed broadband subscribers stood at 2.21 mn as at June 2012, a figure we foresee at 2.28 mn and 2.56 mn in 2012 and 2013, respectively. We highlight STC to be the main beneficiary of the proliferation of fixed broadband services leveraging on the triple/quadruple-play services it can competitively offer.

3

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

Mass adoption of smart-phones stirring broadband revenues

A Google study conducted in May 2012 found the smart-phone penetration rate in KSA to be at 60%, among the highest in the world, vs. that of the U.S. at 44%. According to the study, App usage is ubiquitous with 36 apps installed on average, 58% of users use video at least once a day, and 53% visit social networking sites at least once a day.

According to CITC figures, total mobile broadband subscriptions reached 12.6 mn by the end of H1-12 indicative of a penetration rate of 44.3% in KSA.

Chart 3: Standard & Dedicated mobile Data Subscriptions in KSA

Source: CITC

According to CITC, the number of broadband subscriptions for 2011 are substantially higher relative to 2010 due to the newly adopted methodology recommended by ITU in early 2011.

Relying on the Google study, the disparity between smart-phone penetration (60%) and mobile broadband penetration (44.3%) reveals an inherent possible demand for further broadband services. Additionally, and for illustrative purposes, KSA measures well on a global scale and we believe it will converge with developed markets’ standards in the medium term.

Chart 4: Mobile Broadband Penetration as at end of 2011

Source: ITU, ASIB estimates

4

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

LTE subscriptions in the low thousands amid spectrum scarcity issues

LTE subscriptions totaled only about 15 mn worldwide by the end of Q1-12 of which more than half are accounted for by one operator - Verizon in the U.S. One of the factors behind the low take-up of LTE in the Middle East is the lack of compatible devices until now (Source: telecoms.com).

According to a report conducted for the GSMA by Analysys Mason in May 2012, the current spectrum allocation for LTE in KSA involves a totally non-harmonized arrangement in the 2.3 GHz (STC) and 2.5 GHz (Mobily) bands. KSA must release the internationally harmonized spectrum band plans of 140MHz of spectrum at 2.6GHz and at least 60MHz of digital dividend spectrum at 800MHz. The combination of these 2 bands offers excellent coverage for rural areas and good in-building penetration combined with high capacity for KSA’s cities. This international harmonization is critical to ensure that new devices, which are being developed around the world, will be able to work in KSA. Failing to do so will result in KSA being forced to use higher-cost and poorly-performing devices. Additionally, people from neighboring GCC countries will not be able to roam with their devices in KSA.

Market leaders, STC and Mobily are undoubtedly already working on lobbying the Saudi government to acquire more spectrum compatible with LTE devices. However, the problem with higher frequency bands is that they offer less coverage, and therefore require more base stations and capital expenditure. They are also less efficient for indoors propagation (Source:commsmea.com). On the other hand, if the re-allocation of spectrum occurred in the 800MHz band this will permit larger coverage, which requires fewer cell towers, and is therefore cheaper. According to Mobily’s CEO Al-Kaf, the regulator is working with different authorities in the Kingdom to free the spectrum since they don’t have the required spectrum for mobile LTE. Al-Kaf added that spectrum will be a big issue in Saudi Arabia with the exponential growth in data.

Table 1: Middle East Band Status

Country Band to be allocated Possible Award Date

Bahrain 790- 862 MHz 2012/13

Egypt 698-806 MHz 2015

Jordan 790-862 MHz 2015

Lebanon 698-806 MHz 2015

Saudi Arabia 790-862 MHz 2015

UAE 790-862 MHz 2013Source: GSMA - Making sense of the Digital Dividend Spectrum

Infrastructure sharing agreement remains immobilized

There has been no material progression regarding the deal until now. The latest info we have is that the towers will be spun off into an independent firm worth $ 2.5 Billion and that STC and Mobily are considering selling a large stake of the company. As a reminder, STC owns 11,000 towers vs. Mobily 7,500. Ex-CEO of International Operations Hasbani, stated that tower sharing could potentially reduce STC’s CAPEX and OPEX by up to 30% across its portfolio of assets knowing that the company will consider deals in all markets. On another note, Zain KSA might impose an obstacle as the regulator could fear the deal could put it at a disadvantage vs. other operators. Our financial forecasts don’t take account of the prospective benefits of the tower sharing deal since the timeline of the agreement remains in doubt.

5

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

Late admission of the MVNOs to the Saudi market

Mobily is considered to be the most active operator regarding the liberalization plan put ahead by the Saudi regulator. CEO Khalid Al-Kaf revealed that Mobily already signed MoUs with a number of MVNOs and will host one if it is going to add value for them. Specifically, they are looking at MVNOs that can address particular segments of the market better than Mobily. Host operators can count the MVNO subscribers as their own as well. By convention, MVNOs target the low income segments of the market that are already the center of attention of Zain KSA, hence putting latter’s subscriber base at risk. Al-Kaf expects the service to become operational by Q3-13.

Chart 5: Mobile Penetration Rates upon (potential) Entrance of MNVOs

N.B.: KSA and Egypt’s are our 2012 estimates

Source: Booz&co., ASIB estimates

6

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

ETIHAD ETISALAT ( MOBILY)

Mobily is focusing on diversifying its revenue streams as an attempt to weather the heightened competitive pressures of the Saudi mobile market. CEO Al Kaf, expects data revenues to contribute as much as 30% of total revenues by the end of 2012, and the corporate segment to supply up to 10%. A new organic source for Mobily would be hosting an MVNO on its network benefitting from incremental leasing revenues (to be operational by Q3-13 according to Al-Kaf ). Dominating the majority of broadband users bodes well for Mobily’s revenues providing a healthy growth trajectory. Focusing on data, Bayanat Al-Oula is working on delivering optical fiber services (FTTX) to 250,000 buildings, i.e. covering 800,000 residential and commercial units in the Kingdom by the end of 2016. We also note Mobily’s announced collaboration with Etihad Atheeb Telecom to provide fixed voice services to a number of commercial and residential projects. We have to admit though that STC leads in this regard. Financially, Mobily runs a firm balance sheet with debt to equity ratio below 0.5x, with Al-Kaf ensuring sufficiency regarding further business financing needs. Mother company ETISALAT has also revealed interest in taking a higher ownership stake in Mobily during several occasions which we view positively given the material support it could offer.

Valuation: Assumptions & key downside risks

We raise our previous set forecasts for Mobily after exhibiting substantial growth in the data and corporate segments. We forecast a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.9% accompanied with a long-term EBITDA margin of 35%. Despite that higher data revenues contribute positively to margins, we still take into account the developing low-margin corporate segment, and higher competitive forces. We assume continuous de-gearing, and an apparent progressive dividend policy greatly assisted by the 5-year expected free cash flow CAGR of 9%.

Using the DDM methodology, we upgrade our fair value of Mobily from SAR 74.6/share to SAR 83.7/share, offering an upside potential of 19% and hence our ACCUMULATE rating on the stock. According to our estimates, Mobily trades at a PE12e and PE13e of 8.4x and 7.7x respectively, supplemented with a 6.0% and 7.8% dividend yield, respectively for the mentioned periods. Mobily clearly offers a very attractive risk/reward profile vs. its MENA peers that trade at much higher valuations.

Key downside risks to our valuation include:

-Destructive business environment post MVNO entrance.-Prolonged spectrum issues in KSA delaying returns on LTE investments.-Adverse regulatory amendments.

Table 2: Dividend Discount Model

2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

Earnings Per Share (in SAR) 8.40 9.19 10.08 10.57 11.22 11.57

Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 51% 60% 64% 71% 71% 73%

Dividends Per Share (in SAR) 4.25 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.00 8.50

Present Value of DPS (in SAR) 26.5

Present Value of Terminal Value (in SAR) 57.2

Fair Value/Share (in SAR) 83.7

7

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

SAUDI TELECOM

Despite STC’s extensive international portfolio, we still believe that its core Saudi asset remains to lead its growth direction. Symptoms of domestic recovery were shown during the course of the year, and according to our estimates we expect KSA revenues to provide 70% of 2012 total revenues. The main growth driver of STC’s Saudi unit is the fixed broadband segment of the market, to which we mainly attribute the 5-year expected CAGR of 5.5%. The bundled services that STC can provide to the Saudi audience place it at a distinctive comparative advantage to its local rivals. STC is looking into delivering FTTH to 500,000 homes by the end of this year and go up to 2 mn in 2013. Regardless of the resignation of the CEO of international operations, STC still plans to boost its international presence depending upon the opportunities available in the market. Compared to other international MENA operators, STC is characterized to own minority stakes in its major holdings endowing it a privilege to upgrade its ownership.

Internationally, we believe that Turk Telekom’s fixed line performance will subdue growth arising from mobile and ADSL and hence our conservative 5-year expected CAGR of 3.1%. Turk Telekom is well-positioned to benefit from the growing broadband hype via AVEA, knowing that smart-phone penetration level in Turkey is below 20% according to statistics. However, rapid migration from wire-line to wireless services is negatively outweighing the final operational outcome of the company. It is worth reiterating that fixed services (excluding ADSL) contribute up to 31% of total revenues. The company is investing aggressively as AVEA requires an increased capacity in its backhaul network to extend 3G coverage and prepare for LTE. Moving to the other continent, we positively view the effort Maxis is putting into network sharing agreements starting with the U-mobile to share RAN infrastructure for 3G and LTE networks and with REDtone for 2,600 MHz LTE spectrum. STC’s management is open to tower sharing agreements and suggested that it could potentially reduce CAPEX and OPEX by up to 30% across its portfolio of assets.

Valuation: Assumptions & key downside risks

We raise our previous forecasts for STC projecting positive earnings growth for 2012 after profits were down 18% in 2011. We predict revenues to grow at a 5-year CAGR of 5%, along with EBITDA margins not breaching the 35% level, given STC’s apparent commitment for high cost-discipline. STC has high potential to expand its dividend payout however this is highly subjective to its expansionary strategy. Despite that, we project a progressive dividend payout until an official announcement of a certain M&A activity.

Using the DCF model, we attain a fair value of SAR 48.7/share for STC up from our previous SAR 38.2/share implying an 17.3% upside potential and therefore our ACCUMULATE rating on the stock. STC trades at a PE12e and PE13e of 9.0x and 7.9x, respectively, accompanied with a 4.8% and 7.2% 2012 and 2013 dividend yield, respectively.

Key downside risks to our valuation include:

-Weak demand on fixed broadband in Saudi Arabia.-Prolonged spectrum issues in KSA delaying returns on LTE investments.-Increased leverage due to expansion activities which puts higher dividend payout at risk. -Adverse F/X fluctuations.-Adverse regulatory changes in Saudi Arabia and the other subsidiaries.

8

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

Table 3: Discounted Cash Flow Model

(In mn of SAR unless otherwise stated) 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

Net Income 9,228 10,494 11,374 12,065 12,501 13,480

Other (including non-cash charges) 9,325 9,403 9,401 9,624 9,887 9,911

Less: Capex (10,013) (10,226) (10,272) (9,777) (9,532) (9,932)

Free Cash Flow to the Firm 8,540 9,672 10,503 11,913 12,856 13,459

Present Value of FCFFs 48,563

Present Value of Terminal Value 69,361

Intrinsic Value of the Firm 117,924

Less: Net Debt (as of Q2-12) (20,609)

Intrinsic Value of Equity 97,315

Fair Value/share (in SAR) 48.7

9

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

PRO-FORMA FINANCIALS - ETIHAD ETISALAT

Income Statement (SAR million) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Revenues 20,052 23,701 25,948 28,301 30,499 32,748

EBITDA 7,455 8,532 9,289 10,132 10,827 11,626

EBITDA Margin 37.2% 36.0% 35.8% 35.8% 35.5% 35.5%

EBIT 5,306 6,082 6,657 7,280 7,673 8,147

EBIT Margin 26.5% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.2% 24.9%

Net Profit 5,084 5,877 6,432 7,056 7,399 7,853

EPS 7.26 8.40 9.19 10.08 10.57 11.22

DPS 3.25 4.25 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.00

Balance Sheet (SAR million) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,690 2,371 2,288 1,866 2,320 3,297

Other Current Assets 8,203 9,866 10,803 11,782 12,741 13,680

Property, Plant, & Equipment (net) 16,412 18,639 20,689 22,614 24,108 25,418

Intangibles 9,665 9,134 8,603 8,072 7,541 7,010

Other Non-Current Assets 1,530 1,530 1,530 1,530 1,530 1,530

Total Assets 37,500 41,541 43,914 45,863 48,240 50,935

Dues to Banks 7,072 7,742 6,647 5,614 4,643 3,929

Other Liabilities 12,040 12,509 13,395 13,871 15,070 16,227

Total Shareholders' Equity 18,388 21,290 23,872 26,378 28,527 30,780

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 37,500 41,541 43,914 45,863 48,240 50,935

Key Ratios 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

P/E (x) 9.7 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.7 6.3

Dividend Yield 4.6% 6.0% 7.8% 9.2% 10.6% 11.3%

P/B (x) 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6

Sales Growth 25.2% 18.2% 9.5% 9.1% 7.8% 7.4%

EPS Growth 20.8% 15.6% 9.4% 9.7% 4.9% 6.1%

Payout Ratio 45% 51% 60% 64% 71% 71%

Dividend Cover (x) 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4

ROE 28% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26%

ROA 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Capex/Sales 19% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13%

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.72 0.63 0.47 0.37 0.21 0.05

Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.38 0.36 0.28 0.21 0.16 0.13

10

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

PRO-FORMA FINANCIALS - SAUDI TELECOM

Income Statement (SAR million) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Revenues 55,662 60,657 64,841 68,354 71,284 74,201

EBITDA 20,024 21,836 23,343 24,266 25,306 25,971

EBITDA Margin 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 35.5% 35.5% 35.0%

EBIT 11,171 12,847 14,111 14,762 15,553 15,969

EBIT Margin 20.1% 21.2% 21.8% 21.6% 21.8% 21.5%

Net Profit 7,729 9,228 10,494 11,374 12,065 12,501

EPS 3.86 4.61 5.25 5.69 6.03 6.25

DPS 2.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 5.00

Balance Sheet (SAR million) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Cash and Cash Equivalents 6,589 9,846 11,462 11,173 13,281 14,485

Other Current Assets 15,378 16,095 16,749 17,297 17,755 18,211

Property, Plant, & Equipment (net) 55,085 57,406 59,696 61,760 63,080 63,907

Intangibles 29,318 28,022 26,726 25,430 24,134 22,838

Other Non-Current Assets 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,032

Total Assets 111,402 116,401 119,665 120,692 123,282 124,472

Dues to Banks 29,932 28,861 27,148 24,378 22,532 20,847

Other Liabilities 27,388 27,905 28,387 28,810 29,181 29,555

Total Shareholders' Equity 54,082 59,635 64,130 67,504 71,569 74,070

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 111,402 116,401 119,665 120,692 123,282 124,472

Key Ratios 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

P/E (x) 10.7 9.0 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.6

Dividend Yield 4.8% 4.8% 7.2% 9.6% 9.6% 12.0%

P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Sales Growth 7.5% 9.0% 6.9% 5.4% 4.3% 4.1%

EPS Growth -18.1% 19.4% 13.7% 8.4% 6.1% 3.6%

Payout Ratio 52% 43% 57% 70% 66% 80%

Dividend Cover (x) 1.93 2.31 1.75 1.42 1.51 1.25

ROE 16.5% 17.8% 18.9% 19.6% 19.7% 19.9%

ROA 6.9% 7.9% 8.8% 9.4% 9.8% 10.0%

Capex/Sales 12% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13%

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.17 0.87 0.67 0.54 0.37 0.24

Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.55 0.48 0.42 0.36 0.31 0.28

11

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

Downside -30% -10% +10% +30% Upside

SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

FAIR VALUE DEFINITION

RATING GUIDE

ISSUER

It is an unbiased estimate of the 12-month potential market price of the stock

BUY: Upside potential in share price is more than 30%

ACCUMULATE: Upside potential in share price is between 10 and 30%

HOLD: Upside or downside potential in share price less than 10%

REDUCE: Downside potential in share price is between 10 and 30%

SELL: Downside potential in share price is more than 30%

Audi Saradar Investment BankAudi Saradar Investment Bank SAL • Lebanese joint stock company with a registered capital of 10,000,000,000 Lebanese Pounds • Commercial Registrar in Beirut: 30812 • Holding number 33 on the Central Bank’s Banks List.

Bank Audi Plaza • Bab Idriss • Beirut 2021 8102 Lebanon • P.O. Box 11-2560 • Beirut 1107 2808 • Leba-non. Phone: +961 1 964072 • Fax: +961 1 970403 • Email: [email protected]

12

EQUITY RESEARCH

October 22, 2012

SAUDI TELECOM & ETIHAD ETISALAT COMPANY UPDATE

DISCLAIMER “All rights reserved. This research document is prepared for the use of clients of Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL and/or clients of any entity within the Audi Saradar group.

This research document is disclosed to you on a confidential basis. Receipt and/or review of this research document constitute your agreement not to copy, modify, redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of the same by the Audi Saradar group or without the express written consent of Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL.

This material is not intended for dissemination, distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any country or jurisdiction which would subject Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL or any entity within the Audi Saradar group, to any registration or licensing requirements within these jurisdictions or where it might be considered as unlawful. Accordingly, this material is for distribution solely in jurisdictions where permitted and to persons who may receive it without breaching any applicable legal or regulatory requirements.

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Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed herein constitute an offer or an invitation, or a recommendation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. This research document provides general information only, is not intended to provide personal investment advice or recommendation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive it. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness and suitability in investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or forecasted in this document.

The information herein was obtained from various public sources believed in good faith to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy nor completeness. Neither Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL nor any entity within the Audi Saradar group represent that the information contained in this document is complete, accurate or free from any error and make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the data, information and opinions provided herein.

This research document and any information, opinion, and prospect contained herein reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL and are subject to change without notice. Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL and/or any entity within the Audi Saradar group may have issued, and may in the future issue, other research documents that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information and opinions presented in this research document. Those research documents reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them; Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL and the Audi Saradar group are under no obligation to ensure that such other documents are brought to the attention of any recipient of this document.

Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL, any entity within the Audi Saradar group, their officers and/or one or more of their affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments. Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL and/or any entity within the Audi Saradar group may engage in securities transactions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this document. In addition, Audi Saradar Investment Bank SAL, any entity within the Audi Saradar group and/or any of their strategists, analysts and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in this research report.

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