august 2007. introduction 2007 interim results2007 interim results shipping marketsshipping markets...
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August 2007August 2007
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
• 2007 Interim Results2007 Interim Results
• Shipping MarketsShipping Markets
• Strategy UpdateStrategy Update
• ConclusionConclusion
• AnnexuresAnnexures
– A : Market Value of FleetA : Market Value of Fleet
– B : Fleet SummaryB : Fleet Summary
– C : Shipping Market ReportC : Shipping Market Report
20072007
INTERIM RESULTSINTERIM RESULTS
EARNINGS FROM SHIPSEARNINGS FROM SHIPS
Owned & Long -Term Chartered
Bulk Carriers Tankers Total 2007
1st
Six
Months
Total 2006
1st
Six
Months
Handysize Panamax Capesize Chemical / Small
Product
Mid-Range Product
Daily income ($/day)
17 500 20 800 42 600 13 300 19 800 21 000 16 600
Daily cost ($/day)
7 500 9 200 21 000 9 600 14 600 10 900 10 700
Average no. of ships
18.7 2.0 4.8 5.5 6.5 37.5 39.2
Profit contribution
$34m $4m $19m $4m $6m $67m $42m
International Operations $63m $35m
SA Based Operations $4m $7m
June
2007
June
2006
Growth%
Comments
Shipping Services
Earnings from ships ($ million) 63.0 35.0 High shipping markets
Trading profits from ship sales ($ million) 19.8 18.5
Forex profit ($ million)
Other income / overheads / other interest ($ million)
0.6
(8.5)
8.3
(4.7)
Stable Rand
Profit from international operations ($ million) 74.9 57.1 31.1
Profit from international operations (R million) 538 360
Profit from SA based operations (59) 67 Loss in parcel service; provisions for contracted losses
479 427 12.2
Trading, Freight and Financial Services
Trading Services 29 (4) Increased volumes/margins
Freight Services 62 43
Financial Services 14 3
104 42 116.7
Overheads/disposal adjustment (13) (4) Adjustment i.r.o. disposals in previous year
92 38 140.0
Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders 571 465 22.6
INCOME STATEMENTINCOME STATEMENT
See Annexure A for detail on revaluation of fleet to market value
June
2007
Rm
June
2006
Rm
Comments
Fixed Assets / Investments 8 749 5 684 R2.9 billion increase in fleet value since June 2006
Bank Loans, Advances and Liquid Assets
839 - Acquisition of 100% of Grindrod Bank
Current Assets 2 233 2 033 Trading Services – increased volumes
Total Assets 11 821 7 717
Equity 8 410 5 805 Increase in profits and fleet value
Net Debt 777 266 Increased borrowings to fund acquisitions and expansion
Bank Deposits 784 - Acquisition of 100% of Grindrod Bank
Other Liabilities 1 850 1 646 Trading Services – increased volumes
Total Equity & Liabilities 11 821 7 717
Gearing - Book Value
- Fleet at Market Value
0.25
0.09
0.10
0.04
BALANCE SHEETBALANCE SHEETIncluding Revaluation of Fleet to Market Value
SHIPPING MARKETSSHIPPING MARKETS
SHIPPING MARKETS – DRY BULKSHIPPING MARKETS – DRY BULKBULK CARRIER
New Building Prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1997
-Q1
1997
-Q2
1997
-Q3
1997
-Q4
1998
-Q1
1998
-Q2
1998
-Q3
1998
-Q4
1999
-Q1
1999
-Q2
1999
-Q3
1999
-Q4
2000
-Q1
2000
-Q2
2000
-Q3
2000
-Q4
2001
-Q1
2001
-Q2
2001
-Q3
2001
-Q4
2002
-Q1
2002
-Q2
2002
-Q3
2002
-Q4
2003
-Q1
2003
-Q2
2003
-Q3
2003
-Q4
2004
-Q1
2004
-Q2
2004
-Q3
2004
-Q4
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q2
2005
-Q3
2005
-Q4
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q2
2006
-Q3
2006
-Q4
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q2
'07-
08-0
3
US
$ m
il
170K DWT Capesize Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices 120K DWT Capesize Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices
75K DWT Panamax Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices 23/30K DWT Handysize Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices
32/35K DWT Handysize Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices
BULK CARRIER1 Year Time Charter Rates
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1997
-Q1
1997
-Q2
1997
-Q3
1997
-Q4
1998
-Q1
1998
-Q2
1998
-Q3
1998
-Q4
1999
-Q1
1999
-Q2
1999
-Q3
1999
-Q4
2000
-Q1
2000
-Q2
2000
-Q3
2000
-Q4
2001
-Q1
2001
-Q2
2001
-Q3
2001
-Q4
2002
-Q1
2002
-Q2
2002
-Q3
2002
-Q4
2003
-Q1
2003
-Q2
2003
-Q3
2003
-Q4
2004
-Q1
2004
-Q2
2004
-Q3
2004
-Q4
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q2
2005
-Q3
2005
-Q4
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q2
2006
-Q3
2006
-Q4
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q2
'07-
08-0
3
US
$ p
er d
ay
1 Year Bulkcarrier Timecharter Rates 150,000 dwt 1 Year Bulkcarrier Timecharter Rates 170,000 dwt
1 Year Bulkcarrier Timecharter Rates 65,000 dwt 1 Year bulkcarrier Timecharter Rates 70/72,000 dwt
1 Year Bulkcarrier Timecharter Rates 30,000 dwt
BULK CARRIER – NEWBUILDING PRICES Comments• Continued demand for commodities
• Newbuildings not meeting demand
• Port delays
• Creation of new trade lanes
• Good long-term outlook
BULK CARRIER – 1 YEAR TIME CHARTER RATES
Spot/
Period
TC rates
Date Capesize Panamax Handysize
Spot rates Baltic Ave
time charters
02/03/07
29/06/07
03/08/07
80 584
100 713
107 593
38 437
51 870
57 744
22 478
28 471
34 416
1 Year time charter rates
02/03/07
29/06/07
03/08/07
67 500
92 500
106 500
33 250
45 000
54 250
19 500
25 000
29 000
3 year time charter rates
02/03/07
29/06/07
03/08/07
53 500
70 000
75 000
26 500
34 000
41 000
16 750
20 500
23 000
5 Year time charter rates
14/08/07 60 000 35 000 17 500
SHIPPING MARKETS – PRODUCT SHIPPING MARKETS – PRODUCT TANKERSTANKERS
Comments
• Relatively stable as expected
• Mid-range ships
Balanced supply and demand
• Smaller ships
Undersupplied
• Market outlook
Cautious in short-term
Stronger longer-term outlook
- Legislation requirements
- Scrapping
STRATEGY UPDATESTRATEGY UPDATE
STRATEGY UPDATESTRATEGY UPDATE
Shipping Services
• Shipping markets continue to be firm (but higher than expected)
• Continuing to focus on areas of expertise
• Fleet expansion in under-invested sectors
Ordered 2 x 16 500 dwt product tankers
Ordered 3 x handysize bulk carriers
Sales contracted for 2 x 12 800 dwt product/chemical tankers
• Continue to add to long-term contract cover
Contracted out at 30/06/2007
Bulk Carriers Tankers Total
Handysize Panamax Capesize Chemical Mid-Range Small
2007
2nd six months
Number (Average)
Revenue (US$/day)
21.3
20 600
2.0
20 800
4.3
39 700
2.3
15 000
5.3
18 500
-
-
35.2
22 400
2008 Number (Average)
Revenue (US$/day)
8.8
18 200
2.0
20 700
3.7
34 400
1.8
20 000
6.1
21 000
0.4
15 000
22.8
22 000
2009 Number (Average)
Revenue (US$/day)
1.6
18 300
2.0
20 700
2.4
36 700
0.8
19 900
3.7
20 400
1.5
15 000
12.0
22 900
2010 Number (Average)
Revenue (US$/day)
0.1
15 000
1.1
20 600
1.5
39 000
-
-
3.5
20 400
1.5
15 000
7.7
23 200
2011 Number (Average)
Revenue (US$/day)
-
-
1.0
20 600
0.9
27 500
-
-
1.5
22 000
1.1
15 000
4.5
20 800Contracted profits (US$m)
% of fleet
fixed
Charters
US$m
Ship sales
US$m
Total
US$m
2007 (2nd half) 89 72 6 78
2008 58 78 11 89
2009 32 36 - 36
2010 18 22 - 22
2011 9 8 - 8
CONTRACTED EARNINGSCONTRACTED EARNINGS
TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICESTRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES
• Trading operations now bedded down
• Freight Services
Greater focus on infrastructure investment
Restructure into distinct divisions completed
• Terminal Development
Maputo (R100m capital commitment)
- Ferroslab Terminal – operational August 2007
- Car Terminal – operational December 2007
- Coal Terminal upgrade – complete December 2007
- Bulk Liquids facility – complete October 2007
- Further terminal opportunities under negotiation
TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICESTRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES
• Terminal Development (continued)
Richards Bay Terminal expansion (R168m capital commitment) – complete June 2008
Maydon Wharf Facility expansion (R59m capital commitment) – complete October 2007
• Sold 6 locomotives – commercial decision
• Other acquisitions
50% in Vanguard Rigging (Heavy logistics)
Tate & Lyle Molasses South Africa (Bulk liquids)
Remaining 50% in Boltt Grindrod
Remaining 50% in CMC Grindrod
• Grindrod Bank
Performing according to plan
Net 1 initiative taking shape
STRATEGY UPDATESTRATEGY UPDATE
International Listing/Unbundling
• Have completed investigation
• Will revisit when:
Freight Services properly established
Capital required
Black Economic Empowerment
• Concluded Grindrod Bank transaction
• Freight Services BEE ownership transaction is in progress
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
• Shipping
Long-term charter rates/ship prices indicate expectation of a firm shipping market in the medium-term
Contracted growth in fleet (35% - detail in Annexure B)
Contracted earnings at good levels (last 6 months 2007 = 89%; 2008 =58%; 2009 = 32%)
• Trading, Freight and Financial Services
Well positioned for growth
Focus on infrastructure
Will take advantage of regional growth
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
ANNEXURESANNEXURES
Market Value of Fleet
Rm
Excess of market value over book 1 266value of owned ships
Value of long-term charters 3 483
Value of ship purchase options on 1 304chartered ships 6 053
Indicative values obtained in consultation with reputable ship brokers
Differential between Grindrod charter rate and current rate to replace charter i.e. does not include expected profitPV @ 8% (USD WACC) converted at closingexchange rate
Projected value of ship at end of charter compared to option strike pricePV @ 8% (USD WACC)
ANNEXURE AANNEXURE A
The group valuation should consist of:
1. The analyst’s valuation of Grindrod’s SA based operations 2. A valuation of the international shipping operation taking into account the fleet value,
comparison to peers and the analyst’s estimation of the group’s ability to extract value from its shipping fleet
Contracted in at 30/06/2008
Bulk Carriers Tankers Bunker Barges
Total
Handysize Panamax Capesize Chemical Mid- Range
Small
2007 Number 21.0 2.0 5.0 4.4 6.0 1.0 - 39.4
2nd six months
Cost (US$/day) 7 500 9 200 20 700 11 400 16 100 9 000 - 11 200
2008 Number 21.2 2.0 4.4 4.0 7.4 1.4 2.0 42.4
Cost (US$/day) 8 000 9 200 19 300 14 600 14 600 10 300 5 100 10 900
2009 Number 21.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 8.1 4.2 2.0 44.5
Cost (US$/day) 8 100 9 200 21 400 14 600 15 900 11 500 5 600 11 200
2010 Number
Cost (US$/day)
21.5
8 300
2.0
9 200
3.0
20 800
4.0
14 600
9.3
16 600
8.0
11 600
2.0
5 600
49.8
11 500
2011 Number
Cost (US$/day)
22.6
8 800
2.0
9 200
2.0
20 700
4.5
14 600
10.0
17 100
9.0
11 800
2.0
5 700
52.1
11 600
Current Fleet 21 2 5 5 6 1 - 40
Net Number of Ships to Deliver
2nd half 2007 - - - - 1 - - - -1
2008 1 - -2 - 2 1 2 4
2009 -1 - - - 1 3 - 3
2010 1 - - - 1 4 - 6
2011 2 - -1 1 - - - 2
Fleet at end of 2011 24 2 2 5 10 9 2 54
ANNEXURE BANNEXURE B