aurélie c ohas christophe b onenfant dominique a llaine laboratoire biométrie et biologie...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Aurélie C OHAS Christophe B ONENFANT Dominique A LLAINE Laboratoire Biométrie et Biologie évolutive Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 43 Bd du 11 novembre](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051515/551650e5550346b2068b58d2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Aurélie COHAS
Christophe BONENFANT
Dominique ALLAINE
Laboratoire Biométrie et Biologie évolutiveUniversité Claude Bernard Lyon 1
43 Bd du 11 novembre 1918 69622 Villeurbanne France
EFFECTS OF SUMMER ENVIRONMENTAL FLUCTUATIONS
ON SURVIVAL OF ALPINE MARMOT
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Climate effects on demography
Climate change => how climate acts on demography = necessity to assess the trajectory of species
Environmental conditions affect individuals’ performance through:
- direct effects
- indirect effects via primary productivity
=> Assess impact of summer climate on marmots survival, using long-term data on individually identified marmots
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Field site
40 ha of alpine meadow located in the Grande Sassière national reserve(French Alps, 2340 m above see level)
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Field protocol
From 1990 to 2007: 20 families studied 798 marked individuals 1621 encounters
For each family: numberagesex social status
of individuals known
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Environmental variables
- Climate
- 2 local variables:
Summer temperature (STemp)
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-10
-5
0
5
10
2 4 6 8 10 12
Tem
pera
ture
C°
Month
-10
-5
0
5
10
2 4 6 8 10 12
Tem
pera
ture
C°
Month
Climatic variables: Local variables
- Temperature
=> Summer temperature (STemp)
May October
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
mea
n te
mpe
ratu
re C
°
Year
-10
-5
0
5
10
2 4 6 8 10 12
Tem
pera
ture
C°
Month
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Environmental variables
- Climate
- 2 local variables:
Summer temperature (STemp)
Summer rainfall (SRain)
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0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2 4 6 8 10 12
Cum
ulat
ive
rain
fall
mm
Month
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2 4 6 8 10 12
Cum
ulat
ive
rain
fall
mm
Month
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2 4 6 8 10 12
Cum
ulat
ive
rain
fall
mm
Month
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2 4 6 8 10 12
Cum
ulat
ive
rain
fall
mm
Month
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
cum
ulat
ive
prec
ipita
tion
mm
Year
Climatic variables: Local variables
- Rainfall
=> Summer rainfall (SRain)
May October
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Environmental variables
- Climate
- 2 local variables:
Summer temperature (STemp)
Summer rainfall (SRain)
- Vegetation
Vegetation availability in spring (sNDVI)
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Vegetation index
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
difference from the visible and near-infrared light reflected by vegetation
Abundant vegetation
absorbs visible lightreflects near-infrared light
=> HIGH NDVI
Sparse vegetation
reflects visible lightabsorbs near-infrared light
=> LOW NDVI
near infraredvisible
50% 8%
near infraredvisible
40% 30%
72.008.050.0
08.050.0
14.030.040.0
30.040.0
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
ND
VI
Month
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
ND
VI
Month
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
ND
VI
Month
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
1990 1995 2000 2005
ND
VI
in s
prin
g
Year
Vegetation index
- Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
=> vegetation availability in spring (sNDVI)
15th of April
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PredictionsPredictions
Prediction 1Positive effect of proxys of primary productivity on survival
higher temperature => less vegetation => lower survivalmore rain => more vegetation => higher survivalearly vegetation availability => higher survival
BUT possible thermoregulation cost in marmotsmore rain => low survival
Prediction 2Higher environmental effects for young than for adults
Prediction 3 Presence of helpers buffers environmental effects on juvenile survival
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Estimating survival
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Model and Explanatory variables
Capture Survival Transition from subordinate to
dominant status
agesex
agesex
Agesex
periodsocial status
yearsocial status
presence of helpers at birth
year
Capture history: 1001101220 => capture probability not 1
=> Multistate capture-recapture model to take into account capture probability and social status
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Survival
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Juv. Yearl. Two > 2
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
Age class
Average survival
Age effect
=> survival increase with age
Apparent survival
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Survival
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Juv. Yearl. Two > 2
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
Age class
Average survival
Social status effect
=> dominant show higher survival than subordinates due to dispersal effect
Dominant
Subordinate
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Survival
Helpers effect
=> Juveniles show higher survival in presence of helpers
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Juv. Yearl. Two > 2
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
Age class
Average survival
Helpers
No helpers
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Survival
Marked temporal variation0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Juveniles
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
Year
with helperswithout helpers
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Effects of summer environmental fluctuations on survival
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De-trend of the environmental variables
Environmental variables show tendency
=> Necessity to de-trend variables = use of residuals of linear regression between variable and year
Example of de-trending with STemp
Increasing trend
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
mea
n te
mpe
ratu
re C
°
Year
-2
-1
0
1
2
1990 1995 2000 2005DE
-TR
EN
DE
D s
umm
er m
ean
tem
pera
ture
C°
Year
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Correlation coefficient between de-trended variables
No significant correlation
De-trend of the environmental variables
Environmental variables show tendency
=> Necessity to de-trend variables = use of residuals of linear regression between variable and year
SRain sNDVI
STemp -0.24 -0.20
SRain 0.25
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Effects of the environmental variables
For each age class separately,
Test whether fluctuations of each environmental variable correlates with survival variations
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Juveniles
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-2 -1 0 1
Res
idua
l ann
ual s
urvi
val
sNDVI
Juvenile marmots with helpers
=> Positive effect of availability of vegetation in spring on juvenile survival
=> Positive effect more important in absence of helpers (with: 0.06±0.16, without: 0.74±0.23, p=0.02)
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-2 -1 0 1R
esid
ual a
nnua
l sur
viva
l
sNDVI
Juvenile marmots without helpers
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Juveniles
=> Negative effect of summer precipitation on juvenile survival(-0.23±0.11, p=0.06)
26.4% of deviance explained by environmental variables
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-2 -1 0 1 2
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
SRain
Juvenile marmots
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Yearlings
No effect of any of the summer environmental variables
Two year olds and subordinate adults
No effect of any of the summer environmental variables
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33.8% of deviance explained by environmental variables
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-2 -1 0 1 2
Res
idua
l ann
ual s
urvi
val
SRain
Dominant marmots
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-2 -1 0 1 2
Ann
ual s
urvi
val
STemp
Dominant marmots
=> Negative effect of summer temperature on dominant marmots survival (-0.33±0.17, p=0.02)
=> Positive effect of summer rainon dominant marmots survival(0.40±0.21, p=0.06)
Dominant adults
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Back to predictionsBack to predictions
Prediction 1 PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Positive effect of proxys of primary productivity on survivalhigher temperature => less vegetation => lower survival in
dominantsmore rain => more vegetation => higher survival in
dominantsearly vegetation availability => higher survival in juveniles
BUT possible thermoregulation cost in marmotsmore rain => low survival in juveniles
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PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Climate = > Food availability
Food availability seems a limiting factor
for dominant adults through food availability during summer
for juveniles through food availability early in spring=> mother condition + match plant phenology / emergence
BUT for juveniles evidence of direct costheavy rain => thermoregulation costs => behavioral
thermoregulation => no access to food => lower survival
Prediction 1Prediction 1Positive effects of proxys of primary productivity on survival
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Back to predictionsBack to predictions
Prediction 1 PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Positive effect of proxys of primary productivity on survivalhigher temperature => less vegetation => lower survival in
dominantsmore rain => more vegetation => higher survival in
dominantsearly vegetation availability => higher survival in juveniles
BUT possible thermoregulation cost in marmotsmore rain => low survival in juveniles
Prediction 2 PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Higher environmental effects for young than for adults
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PATIALLY SUPPORTED
Juveniles SENSIBLE to environmental fluctuationsYearlings NOT SENSIBLE to environmental fluctuationsTwo year olds NOT SENSIBLE to environmental fluctuationsSubordinate adults NOT SENSIBLE to environmental fluctuations
=> Theory for long lived species: sensibility to environmental fluctuations decreases with age
BUT dominant adults SENSIBLE to environmental fluctuations
=> Possible cost of dominance and reproduction
Prediction 2Prediction 2Higher environmental effects for young than for adults
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Back to predictionsBack to predictions
Prediction 1 PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Positive effect of proxys of primary productivity on survivalhigher temperature => less vegetation => lower survival in
dominantsmore rain => more vegetation => higher survival in
dominantsearly vegetation availability => higher survival in juveniles
BUT possible thermoregulation cost in marmotsmore rain => low survival in juveniles
Prediction 2 PARTIALLY SUPPORTED
Higher environmental effects for young than for adults
Prediction 3 SUPPORTED
Presence of helpers buffers environmental effects on juvenile survival
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Prediction 3 Prediction 3 Presence of helpers buffers environmental effects on juvenile survival
SUPPORTED
Juveniles
with helpers LOW SENSIBILITY to environmental fluctuations
without helpers HIGH SENSIBILITY to environmental fluctuations
=> Weight at entry in hibernation is driven by food availability but being fat is more critical for juveniles without helpers than for juveniles with helpers
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Age specific and complex effects of environment on survival
- climate impacts survival via primary productivity
- but effects modulated by social factors
=>Next step:
- taking into account winter conditions
- quantifying impact of these effects on marmot population growth rate
Conclusions
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to all students involved in marmots trapping and observations
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
to the authorities of the Vanoise National Park
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Many thanks for your attention