austin’s housing market: can we see the forest … · 13 july 2016 | austin hba...

LOCAL & NATIONAL FOOTPRINT

AUSTIN’S HOUSING MARKET: CAN WE SEE THE FOREST THROUGH THE TREES? (Hand-Out)

Presented by: Tim Sullivan, Practice Leader

July 2016 | Austin Home Builders Association

Meyers

AGENDA

July 2016 | Austin HBA Mid-Year2

I. Introduction

II. National Economic Trends

III. Big Picture Housing Trends

IV. Issues Going Forward

V. Austin Discussion

VI. Conclusion

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INTRODUCTION

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5

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WHAT CONCERNS ARE KEEPING YOU UP AT NIGHT?

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Recession?Demographics

Millennials Absorption Vs Pricing

DisruptersMetrics

Market Threats

Where in the Cycle are WE?

Debt and Equity

Lessons Learned

Single Family For-Rent

MPC

Labor Shortages

Regional Opportunities

TOPICS AND CONCERNS….


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WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?


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NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS

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Remodeled Loans, Higher Rates, Lower FloorSource: Mortgage Bankers Association, The Wall Street Journal

Share of Mortgage Origination Volume Mortgage Credit Availability Index

As conventional mortgage lending shrinks, private lenders are helping fill the gap,

charging higher rates but more accepting of borrower troubles.


THE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY IS STILL BROKEN

Meyers

U.S. Job Growth (000s)Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. JOB GROWTH OVER LAST 25 YEARS

Negative Job GrowthPositive Job Growth

The U.S. added 11.5 Million Jobs since 2011


-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

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6,000

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TEXAS HAS BEEN A JOB CREATOR


Top 15 Job Growth Metros in the 2000sSource: Economy.com

TexasJob Growth

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Denver

San Diego

Las Vegas

San Antonio

Seattle

Orlando

Austin

Atlanta

Inland Empire

Miami

Phoenix

Los Angeles

Dallas

Houston

New York

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BIG PICTURE REAL ESTATE TRENDS

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NEW US HOME PRICES IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY


US Median Home PriceSource: Economy.com

Median Home Price - $231k Economic Recession

$0

$50,000

$100,000

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$200,000

$250,000

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NEW HOME PRICES ARE AT AN ALL TIME HIGH


Existing Home Price - $213kNew Home Price - $297k

U.S. Median Sales Price of Homes: New v. ExistingSource: Zonda

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

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16% 39%Meyers

NEW HOME SIZE HAS INCREASED 16% IN 6 YEARS


Median Square Footage of New Single Family HomesSource: Census and Wall Street Journal

The median size of a new home is 2,467 square feet, 61% bigger than 40 years ago

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SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION IN $$ RECOVERY


Total Lost Recovered / Remaining

Detached Resales Median Price Recovery from PeakSource: Zonda

-8.4% -8.8% -5.8% -11.1% -10.4% -13.6%

-25.0% -22.3%-28.5%

-47.5%

-59.0%

27.2% 26.2%15.6% 14.2%

8.4%3.8%

1.2% -3.2% -9.8%-15.7%

-28.5%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Austin Denver SanAntonio

Dallas Houston Seattle Orange SaltLakeCity

LosAngeles

Phoenix LasVegas

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DISPARITY IN PRICING MAKES RESALES “COMPS”



Austin New Home Versus Existing Home PricesSource: Zonda

$75,000

$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

$325,000

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Only a 5% Difference

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DENVER SHOWS A 27% DIFFERENCE



Denver New Home Versus Existing Home PricesSource: Zonda

$75,000

$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

$325,000

$375,000

$425,000

$475,000

$525,000

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DALLAS OFFERS A 46% DIFFERENCE



Dallas New Home Versus Existing Home PricesSource: Zonda

$75,000

$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

$325,000

$375,000

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RESALES REBOUND. NEW? NOT SO MUCH


New Home Sales Existing Home Sales

US New v. Existing Homes Sales Source: Moody’s Economy.com

0.62 4.81

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

0

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7,000,000

1980

1982

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2010

2012

2014

2016

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Monthly Supply of Resale Homes in the United StatesSource: FRED

Stable Market Buyer’s MarketSeller’s Market


UNSOLD SUPPLY IN U.S. IS STABLE

2.0

3.0

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AUSTIN BUILDING SFD AT OVER 2.5 X THE U.S.


Single Family Building Permits Per 1,000 HouseholdsSource: Economy.com

United States Austin MSA6.65 16.7

0

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0%

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NEW CONSTRUCTION TILTS TOWARDS MF IN U.S.


% of US Residential Building Permits That Are MF Source: Economy.com

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AUSTIN MF ALSO AT 2X THE U.S. RATE


Multi-Family Building Permits Per 1,000 HouseholdsSource: Economy.com

United States Austin MSA4.15 8.73

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RESALE/NEW RATIO REFLECTS AFFORDABILITY


This was 3.5 one year ago

Forecasted 2016 Activity Ratio of

MSA Resales + New Sales = Total Sales Resale / New

Los Angeles 102,415 5,599 108,014 18.3 - 1

Denver 61,818 7,381 69,199 8.4 - 1

Phoenix 89,030 12,112 101,142 7.4 - 1

Atlanta 83,991 14,927 98,918 5.6 - 1

Dallas 116,167 21,149 137,316 5.5 - 1

Las Vegas 34,601 6,885 41,486 5.0 - 1

Houston 90,400 22,528 112,928 4.0 - 1

San Antonio 34,780 9,071 43,851 3.8 - 1

Austin 35,623 10,165 45,788 3.5 - 1Meyers

AND AUSTIN SHOWS STRONG DEMAND


This was 2.0 one year ago

2016 Growth Forecast E/P

MSA Population Employment Building Permit Ratio

Los Angeles 95,730 138,630 34,629 4.0

Phoenix 111,010 81,840 29,611 2.8

San Antonio 42,240 25,340 9,792 2.6

Atlanta 108,650 79,400 37,257 2.1

Dallas 149,480 119,780 60,720 2.0

Las Vegas 52,770 21,570 15,869 1.4

Denver 44,730 30,950 23,330 1.3

Houston 134,500 9,390 43,800 0.2

Austin 60,500 36,700 21,800 1.7Meyers

TEXAS MARKETS IN AFFORDABLE ZONE


Home Price to Income RatioSource: Economy.com

2012 2013 2014 2015

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Los Angeles Phoenix San Antonio Atlanta Austin Las Vegas Denver Houston Dallas

Reflects a 4-1 Ratio

of Price to Income

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“SELLING SEASON” UPTICK IN AUSTIN

Average Sales Rate Per ProjectSource: Zonda

DallasUnited States Houston2.3 2.2 1.9 Austin 2.1


1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16

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AUSTIN IS AMONG THE TOP MARKETS IN THE U.S.


First Quarter 2016 Annual 2015

Rank Metro Area Projects Sales Rate Projects Sales Rate Price

1 Dallas 630 5,357 2.83 790 20,310 2.14 $419,939

2 Houston 774 4,883 2.10 1,002 21,772 1.81 $381,963

3 Phoenix 520 3,772 2.42 502 15,829 2.63 $347,231

4 Atlanta 499 3,122 2.08 616 12,598 1.71 $357,614

5 Austin 349 2,843 2.71 439 10,857 2.06 $371,498

6 Washington 418 2,607 2.08 573 10,090 1.47 $552,297

7 Indianapolis 143 2,483 5.80 224 3,654 1.36 $278,087

8 Orlando 300 2,471 2.74 376 10,710 2.38 $332,576

9 Tampa 257 2,438 3.16 320 7,860 2.05 $310,828

10 Denver 299 2,407 2.68 294 7,465 2.11 $459,528

11 San Antonio 289 2,087 2.41 390 8,027 1.71 $317,087

12 Las Vegas 236 2,055 2.91 226 7,691 2.83 $405,754

13 Miami 195 1,979 3.38 244 11,326 3.87 $1,628,213

14 Los Angeles 173 1,911 3.67 200 7,273 3.03 $1,076,245

15 Charlotte 270 1,815 2.24 334 7,482 1.87 $362,574

Meyers

Austin MSA

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AUSTIN HAS AVERAGED 25K JOBS


Annual Employment Growth and Unemployment RateSource: Economy.com

Job Growth Job Loss Unemployment Forecast

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

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LARGE PRESENCE OF TECH AND GOVERNMENT


Top 10 Employers in Austin MetroSource: Meyers Research

Rank Company Industry

1 Austin Independent School District Education

2 City of Austin Government

3 Dell, Inc. Technology

4 U.S. Government Government

5 IBM Corp Technology

6 Seton Family of Hospitals Medical*

7 St. David’s Healthcare Partnership Healthcare*

8 State of Texas Government

9 University of Texas at Austin Education

10 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Technology

Meyers

PERMITS ARE TRENDING UP IN THE AUSTIN MSA


Building PermitsSource: Economy.com

Single Family Multi-Family

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

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Meyers

E/P RATIO HOVERING AROUND 2.0


E/P RatioSource: Economy.com

Emp. Growth E/P Ratio

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

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Was 3.0

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STRONG GROWTH IN HIGHER PAYING JOBS


Changes in Employment by IndustrySource: Economy.com

2012 2013 2014 2015

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Constr. Manuf. TradeTrans.

& Utilities

Info. FinancialActivities

Prof.& Business

Services

Educ. &Health

Services

Leisure &Hospitality

OtherServices

Government

Meyers

SALES VOLUME - MODEST, PRICE GAINS - SOLID


New Home Closings and PriceSource: Zonda

New Home Sales New Home Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

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33% increase in New Home Price 2011 to 2015

Meyers

RESALE TRENDS STEADILY UP


Existing Home Sales and PriceSource: Economy.com

Existing Sales Existing Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

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$300,000

0

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1994

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36% increase in Resale Home Price from 2011 to 2015

Meyers

AFFORDABILITY STILL QUITE HIGH, BUT…


Affordability IndexSource: Economy.com

Historical Forecast

130.0

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WILLIAMSON MOST ACTIVE, TRAVIS HIGHEST $

2015 New DET Home Sales and Price by CountySource: Zonda

New Home PriceNew Home Sales

42 July 2016 | Austin HBA Mid-Year

$0k $50k $100k $150k $200k $250k $300k $350k

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Caldwell

Bastrop

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Meyers

TRAVIS IS MOST ACTIVE RESALE MARKET

2015 Existing DET Home Sales and Price by CountySource: Zonda

Existing Home PriceExisting Home Sales

43 July 2016 | Austin HBA Mid-Year

$0k $50k $100k $150k $200k $250k $300k $350k

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Caldwell

Bastrop

Hays

Williamson

Travis

Meyers

ELASTICITY IS ALIVE AND WELL


Number of Projects and Average Price by Sales RateSource: Zonda

# of Projects Average Price

40

88

75

64

50

30

26

16

11

12

36

0.0 to 0.5

0.5 to 1.0

1.0 to 1.5

1.5 to 2.0

2.0 to 2.5

2.5 to 3.0

3.0 to 3.5

3.5 to 4.0

4.0 to 4.5

4.5 to 5.0

5.0 orGreater

$4

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k

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$2

20

kMeyers

Months of InventorySource: Zillow and Zonda

RESALE MARKETS ALL UNDER 3 MONTHS SUPPLY


Travis

Williamson

Hays

Bastrop

Caldwell

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yers

CAL ATLANTIC & D.R. HORTON AT THE TOP


Top 10 Builders by Active ProjectsSource: Zonda

Overview by Builder Range of Base Prices by Builder

Rank Builder Projects SR SF Price 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k 600k 700k 800k 900k

1 CalAtlantic Homes 45 1.7 2,813 $391,277 X X X X X X X X

2 D.R. Horton 24 5.3 2,031 $214,137 X X X

3 Scott Felder Homes 23 1.1 2,920 $392,294 X X X X X X X

4 Lennar 21 2.3 2,307 $266,090 X X X X X

5 Highland Homes 21 1.8 2,890 $355,728 X X X X X

6 David Weekley Homes 21 1.3 2,562 $350,832 X X X X X X

7 KB Home 19 5.1 2,411 $225,113 X X X

8 Wilshire Homes 19 1.6 2,805 $305,148 X X

9 Grand Haven Homes 17 1.3 3,068 $362,391 X X X X

10 Drees Homes 17 1.0 3,568 $498,959 X X X X

Overall 498 - 2,683 $335,153 X X

Meyers

CONCLUSIONS

Meyers

WHERE ARE WE IN THE CURRENT CYCLE

Where Is Your Market In The Housing Cycle?Source: Meyers Research

B

C

D

E

H

F

G

A EC G HFB D

A


Meyers


REALITY OF THE COMPETITIVE MARKET: AUSTIN

Single Family Activity

Austin MSA 2016 2017 Change '16 to '17

Resales Home Price $281,280 $292,531 4.0%

# of Resale Transactions 47,650 46,040 -3.4%

New Home Price $284,204 $298,414 5.0%

# New Home Transactions 10,000 9,500 -5.0%

Meyers


Margin Compression for Builders

Higher Hard Costs

Slower Price Appreciation Going Forward

“Stiff” Land Prices with lot to home price ratios pushing

to +/- 25% and $1,200 to $1,300/ff

Affordability has weakened but keep perspective!

The rise of Williamson & Hays Counties

More tech company jobs

Still Affordable for Out-of-State Buyers (California)

New Supply has softened per subdivision sales rates (3.0 vs

2.0)

REALITY OF THE COMPETITIVE MARKET: AUSTIN

Meyers

AUSTIN HAS STRONG TECH W/BETTER HOME $


Top 10 Tech Markets – Tech Employees Per 1,000 JobsSource: Nerd Wallet and Economy.com

Tech Median Metro Tech Emp Existing Home Price

Rank Salary Ratio Income Ratio Areas per 1,000 $100k to $300k $350k to $550k $600k to $800k+

1 $130,179 7.3 $100,487 9.4 San Jose 126.27 •

2 $92,296 1.9 $57,781 3.0 Huntsville 68.02 •

3 $108,472 3.5 $75,120 5.0 Seattle 77.61 •

4 $94,535 2.3 $53,563 4.1 Durham 66.16 •

5 $97,756 4.7 $73,819 6.2 Boulder 70.79 •

6 $113,093 6.9 $87,229 8.9 San Francisco 72.47 •

7 $104,148 3.7 $94,034 4.1 Washington D.C. 79.1 •

8 $87,311 2.7 $64,163 3.7 Raleigh 56.55 •

9 $84,366 3.1 $64,933 4.0 Austin 58.82 •

10 $102,939 3.9 $78,305 5.1 Boston 57.06 •

Meyers

AUSTIN VALUES: WHAT DOES ~$350K BUY?


Round Rock, TX

$359,000 • 3,053 SF • $117

Georgetown, TX

$366,743 • 2,750 SF • $133 $372,990 • 2,800 SF • $133

Pflugerville, TX

Spring Branch, TX

$349,000 • 2,350 SF • $148

Leander, TX

$362,999 • 2,426 SF • $149 $339,900 • 1,750 SF • $194

Austin, TX

Meyers

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BEVERLY HILLS | SAN DIEGO | ORANGE COUNTY | BAY AREA | DALLAS | PHOENIX | DENVER | PHILADELPHIA | NEW YORK

BEVERLY HILLS

151 S. El Camino Drive

Beverly Hills, CA 90212

SAN DIEGO

420 Stevens Ave, Suite 120

Solana Beach, CA 92075

ORANGE COUNTY

3200 Bristol Street, Suite 640

Costa Mesa, CA 92626

BAY AREA

675 Hartz Ave, Suite 206

Danville, CA 94526

DALLAS

4925 Greenville Ave, Suite 605

Dallas, TX 75206

PHOENIX

6835 E Camelback Rd, Suite B15

Scottsdale, AZ 85251

DENVER

9233 Park Meadows Drive

Lone Tree, CO 80124

PHILADELPHIA

Three Logan Square

1717 Arch Street, Suite 700

Philadelphia, PA 19103

NEW YORK

315 W 36th Street

New York, NY 10018

THANK YOU.

Meyers

austin’s housing market: can we see the forest … · 13 july 2016 | austin hba...

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