australian dollar outlook 15 august 2011
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8/6/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook 15 August 2011
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FX DAILY REPORT MONDAY 15TH AUGUST 2011
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA
TOLL FREE 1800 003 [email protected]
ABN 25 006 390 772AFS LICENCE NO.243480
Bell FX Currency OutlookThe AUD is stronger this morning currently trading at USD1.0380 asoffshore equity markets finished stronger and markets stabilisedafter the tumultuous week.
Australia:Risk was back on the table as the global markets seemed togain some stability towards the end of the week; therefore the AUD hasrisen almost one cent since Friday on the back of renewed demand. Thepositive news out of Europe, including the approval of Italys austeritybudget managed to overshadow the somewhat mixed data out of the US.While US retail sales data was positive; meeting markets expectations of a0.5% gain, the US consumer sentiment plunged to a 31 year low, leavinginvestors with little to go on. The Michigan Consumer Confidence fell from63.7 to 54.9, which was much more severe than the expected drop to62.The movements in the equity markets in the past week can explainsome of the decrease; although should the index not recover next month,then it could leave investors very concerned for the recovery of the USeconomy. Tonight in the US sees the release of manufacturing data forAugust. Many will be paying close attention to the result given the recentfluctuating manufacturing results in the region. Locally we have new motorvehicle sales for July released; with the tier two data unlikely to influencethe market. However, the Japanese Q2 GDP will be of more interest withmarkets expecting a 2.5% drop.
Majors: Most of the news offshore was in relation to the recent rise of theSwiss Franc. Speculation is rife that Switzerlands central bank will takefurther measures to weaken the CHF; and this dragged the recent safe-haven currency lower. The CHF fell more than 2% during the tradingsession against both the USD and the EUR. This was surprising as most
of the movement out of the currency was purely based on speculationrather than any formal statement by the central bank. Many were going onthe behaviour in the last week by the Swiss National Bank as they trimmedrates close to zero and flooded the Swiss money markets with liquidity tomake the CHF less attractive to global investors. As mentioned above, theItalian Cabinet approved the austerity budget, which included more thanEUR45.5bio in cuts to the balance sheet. A budget of this type is anattempt to show investors that they are undertaking all avenues to avoidany further sovereign debt issues. Other data out of Europe disappointed,with the regions industrial production falling 0.7%.
Economic Calendar
15 AUG AU New Motor Vehicle Sales JUL
JN GDP Q2US Empire Manufacturing AUG
US Feds Lockhart Speaks on economy in Alabama
Important Disclaimer This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the basis that it is only for the
information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign
exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not
intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information
contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no
responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in
nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not
constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an
invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without
seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney.
Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require l atest pricing and ranges.
Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 [email protected] Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 [email protected] Fisher 08 8224 2771 [email protected] Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 [email protected]
Nick White 08 8224 2770 [email protected] Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 [email protected]
Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 [email protected] Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 [email protected]
Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 [email protected] Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 [email protected]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Todays Forecast Range
USD 1.0275 - 1.0475
Currencies Last High Low
AUD / USD 1.0390 1.0395 1.0171
USD / JPY 76.88 77.02 76.51
EUR / USD 1.4275 1.4294 1.4104
GBP / USD 1.6291 1.6313 1.6133
NZD / USD 0.8355 0.8358 0.8128
AUD Crosses Last High Low
AUD / JPY 79.92 80.11 78.70
AUD / EUR 0.7276 0.799 0.7185
AUD / GBP 0.6375 0.6382 0.6325
AUD / NZD 1.2439 1.2255 1.2366AUD / CAD 1.0270 1.0275 1.0166
Australian Rates Last Previous
Official Cash 4.75
3 Month Bill 4.83 4.88
10 Year Bond 4.43 4.46
US Rates Last Previous
Fed Funds 0.25
3 Month Libor 0.290 0.275
10 Year Bond 2.25 2.32
Commodities Last - / + (%)
Gold (US$ / oz) 1740.20 -0.5
Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 85.38 -0.4
CRB Index 326.53 0.1
Equities Last - / + (%)
ASX 200 4173 0.8
Dow Jones 11269 1.1
FTSE 5320 3.0
Hang Seng 19620 0.1
Nikkei 8964 -0.2