australian dollar outlook 17 august 2011
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8/6/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook 17 August 2011
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FX DAILY REPORT WEDNESDAY 17TH AUGUST 2011
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA
TOLL FREE 1800 003 [email protected]
ABN 25 006 390 772AFS LICENCE NO.243480
Bell FX Currency Outlook
The AUD has held ground overnight despite the releaseof contrasting economic data from the US and Europe
overnight.
Australia: The AUD opens this morning at USD 1.0470 which is 6 USCents below the recent high of USD 1.1081 reached on July 27 whichremains the highest level since the fixed exchange rate era ended with itsfloat in December 1983. The feeling with the AUD is a positive one,following the tumultuous events of last week. The EUR remains vulnerableand interestingly, the CHF is giving back recent gains ahead of the SwissNational Bank and Swiss Government announcing new FX targetingmeasures this evening. Oil is choppy on global growth concerns and goldremains well bid as equities retreated and Treasuries rose. Fitch affirmedthe US AAA rating with a stable outlook but that could be reviewed inNovember, if Congress fails to find the required $1.2bn in Budgetreductions. The stable outlook indicates Fitch expects the rating to staythere, another positive for sentiment. In Australia, yesterdays ReserveBank Board Meeting Minutes for August revealed the Bank is still maintaina tightening bias but they will need to see signs of an acceleratingeconomy before they act. Today in Australia, we see the release of theWage Cost Index (Q2) with the market looking for a rise of 1.0% (4.0%yoy) which is up from 3.8% yoy in Q1.
Majors: As mentioned above, European growth concerns remain.There isa clear shift towards stronger fiscal unity in the Eurozone following themuch anticipated summit between the German and French leaders inParis. A Eurozone economic council is being created, with a proposal toelect a president of the council for 2 years. A deficit limit rule is beingmooted to be in place in the 17 Eurozone countries constitutions by mid-2012 with all countries working towards a balanced budget. U S equitiesfinished lower on choppy trading. Offshore, the US has the PPI, Europehas its CPI and the UK has labour market data plus the BoE Minutes.
Economic Calendar
17 AUG AUS Westpac Leading Index Jun
EU Euro-zone CPI Jul
UK BoE Minutes
US PPI Jul
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information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign
exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not
intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information
contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no
responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in
nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not
constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an
invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without
seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney.
Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require l atest pricing and ranges.
Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 [email protected] Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 [email protected] Fisher 08 8224 2771 [email protected] Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 [email protected]
Nick White 08 8224 2770 [email protected] Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 [email protected]
Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 [email protected] Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 [email protected]
Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 [email protected] Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 [email protected]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Todays Forecast Range
USD 1.0400-1.0550
Currencies Last High Low
AUD / USD 1.0470 1.0511 1.0407
USD / JPY 76.75 76.93 76.65
EUR / USD 1.4403 1.4472 1.4355
GBP / USD 1.6445 1.6476 1.6323
NZD / USD 0.8340 0.8408 0.8274
AUD Crosses Last High Low
AUD / JPY 80.42 80.76 79.83
AUD / EUR 0.7272 0.7286 0.7239
AUD / GBP 0.6364 0.6414 0.6339
AUD / NZD 1.2556 1.2639 1.2504AUD / CAD 1.0294 1.0308 1.0253
Australian Rates Last Previous
Official Cash 4.75
3 Month Bill 4.84 4.83
10 Year Bond 4.45 4.43
US Rates Last Previous
Fed Funds 0.25
3 Month Libor 0.293 0.290
10 Year Bond 2.22 2.25
Commodities Last - / + (%)
Gold (US$ / oz) 1785.70 +1.1
Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 87.19 -0.8
CRB Index 330.19 -0.1
Equities Last - / + (%)
ASX 200 4247 -0.8
Dow Jones 11406 -0.7
FTSE 5358 +0.1
Hang Seng 20212 -0.2
Nikkei 9107 +0.2