australian dollar outlook 23 august 2011
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/4/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook 23 August 2011
1/1
FX DAILY REPORT TUESDAY 23RD AUGUST 2011
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718
MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA
TOLL FREE 1800 003 815
ABN 25 006 390 772
AFS LICENCE NO.243480
Bell FX Currency OutlookThe AUD is relatively unchanged this morning as a lack of offshoredata paved the way for a quiet trading session
Australia: Our local currency is trading just below USD1.0400, despite apositive night in the offshore equity markets and continual gains in the goldprice. The US markets started the week in the black, with the DOW up0.3% after 4 consecutive weeks of losses as investors continue to fear thatwe will experience a double dip recession. Reports flowing out of Libyathat the rebels were extremely close to capturing Gaddafi as they movetowards the presidential compound in South Tripoli, and that two of hissons have been captured, provided the positive tone for the markets.During our local session today, the focus will be on a speech by the RBAsDeputy Governor Battellino as well as the Chinese PMI result. Investorswill be paying close attention to the speech this afternoon, which will focuson the economic and financial conditions, in the hope for furtherclarification as to the next move by the RBA. While the markets are pricingthe easing of the current monetary policy, it is expected that Battellino will
attempt to hose down the recession like policy easing expectations in themarket. As mentioned above, the Chinese data due out today will also beof interest, as Chinas economic conditions are viewed as a dominantdriver of our economy and interest rate policy settings. Its expected thatthe PMI result will be marginally stronger.
Majors: This week is very light on for top tier data, not only locally, butalso overseas, which has investors looking forward to Fridays meeting ofthe global central bankers at Jacksons Hole. Many will remember thistime last year when Ben Bernanke pledged to do all that he could inrelation to the conditions in the US, and began the process of QE2. Anextraordinary measure like QE3 is unlikely to come out of the meeting,which caused some higher yielding currencies like the EUR weakenagainst the USD. The currency market has also been on high alert,watching for further intervention by Japanese officials after the JPY surgedto a record high of JPY75.94 against the USD on Friday. Its unlikely that
there will be any intervention prior to Fridays meeting, as the JPY hasweakened from its record highs overnight.
Economic Calendar
23 AUG CH HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI AUGCA CPI JUL
AU RBA Deputy Governor Battellino Speech
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
US New Home sales
Important Disclaimer This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the basis that it is only for the
information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign
exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not
intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information
contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no
responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in
nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not
constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an
invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without
seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney.
Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require latest pricing and ranges.
Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 [email protected] Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 [email protected]
Sally Fisher 08 8224 2771 [email protected] Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 [email protected]
Nick White 08 8224 2770 [email protected] Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 [email protected]
Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 [email protected] Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 [email protected]
Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 [email protected] Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 [email protected]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Todays Forecast Range
USD 1.0320-1.0440
Currencies Last High Low
AUD / USD 1.0395 1.0473 1.0363
USD / JPY 76.82 77.21 76.50
EUR / USD 1.4359 1.4434 1.4347
GBP / USD 1.6460 1.6520 1.6436
NZD / USD 0.8232 0.8279 0.8162
AUD Crosses Last High Low
AUD / JPY 79.85 80.48 79.53
AUD / EUR 0.7235 0.7263 0.7220
AUD / GBP 0.6310 0.6343 0.6291
AUD / NZD 1.2619 1.2738 1.2614
AUD / CAD 1.0296 1.0330 1.0274
Australian Rates Last Previous
Official Cash 4.793 Month Bill 4.81 4.81
10 Year Bond 4.23 4.23
US Rates Last Previous
Fed Funds 0.25
3 Month Libor 0.308 0.303
10 Year Bond 2.106 2.060
Commodities Last - / + (%)
Gold (US$ / oz) 1899.60 +2.6
Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 84.42 +2.4
CRB Index 331.77 +0.7
Equities Last - / + (%)
ASX 200 4082 -0.5
Dow Jones 10855 +0.3
FTSE 5095 +1.1
Hang Seng 19487 +0.4
Nikkei 8628 -1.0