australian dollar outlook 24 august 2011
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8/4/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook 24 August 2011
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FX DAILY REPORT WEDNESDAY 24TH AUGUST 2011
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA
TOLL FREE 1800 003 [email protected]
ABN 25 006 390 772AFS LICENCE NO.243480
Bell FX Currency OutlookThe Australian Dollar has opened this mornings session half a USCent higher on the back of a good night in overseas stock marketsand healthy economic data out of China.
Australia: We open this morning at USD 1.0510 after the US Dollar wassold off as stock markets rallied on good news out of China and surprise,surprise, Europe. Chinas HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for August camein stronger than expected, rising 0.5 points to 49.8, remaining below 50 forthe second consecutive month and suggesting a mild net contraction inactivity, which is reflective of credit tightening on small to medium sizedbusinesses. Locally, Reserve Bank of Australias Deputy GovernorBattellinos speech implied pretty emphatically that an interest rate easingin September is unlikely and that the Bank would continue to watch theconundrum of a tight labour market in what seems to be a softeningeconomy in an uncertain world. Additionally, rhetoric from Australian
Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson is worth noting. He issued a directwarning to Canberra to facilitate, as opposed to stand in the way of,structural changes the resources boom is forcing onto the Australianeconomy. Opposing adjustment rarely succeeds, and the negativeconsequences are significant, according to Parkinson. Labour forceimplications of the structural change occurring in Australia is becoming asignificant challenge for fiscal and monetary policy-makers over the nextcouple of years, in relation to the extent to which new jobs can offset theloss of jobs in Australias old economy (mainly manufacturing). Australiastill seems to be held up as being in relatively good shape by theinternational markets (some locally would rightly dispute this) but while thisis the case, the AUD seems to be well supported.
Majors: The US Dollar softened on the news out of China (see above)
and Europe, in which data exceeded expectations. Europes releaseshowed economic conditions were still soft with the Manufacturing PMI forthe Euro-Zone below 50 at 49.7, slightly better than expected. Marketsentiment was boosted by rising hopes the US Federal Reserve will offernew stimulus measures to kick-start the sluggish American economy.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will give a speech to a centralbank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday (US time). At lastyear's Jackson Hole meeting, Dr Bernanke announced the second roundof economic stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Second tier data out tonightis not expected to influence the FX markets.
Economic Calendar
24 AUG US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug 11
US Durable Goods Orders JulUS House Price Index Jun
Important Disclaimer This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the basis that it is only for the
information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign
exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not
intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information
contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no
responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in
nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not
constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an
invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without
seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney.
Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require l atest pricing and ranges.
Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 [email protected] Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 [email protected] Fisher 08 8224 2771 [email protected] Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 [email protected]
Nick White 08 8224 2770 [email protected] Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 [email protected]
Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 [email protected] Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 [email protected]
Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 [email protected] Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 [email protected]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Todays Forecast Range
USD 1.0450 1.0550
Currencies Last High Low
AUD / USD 1.0520 1.0534 1.0387
USD / JPY 76.68 76.94 76.48
EUR / USD 1.4435 1.4500 1.4354
GBP / USD 1.6460 1.6520 1.6436
NZD / USD 0.8338 0.8368 0.8214
AUD Crosses Last High Low
AUD / JPY 80.70 80.81 79.75
AUD / EUR 0.7283 0.7295 0.7232
AUD / GBP 0.6370 0.6384 0.6311
AUD / NZD 1.2611 1.2661 1.2576AUD / CAD 1.0396 1.0411 1.0288
Australian Rates Last Previous
Official Cash 4.79
3 Month Bill 4.74 4.81
10 Year Bond 4.40 4.23
US Rates Last Previous
Fed Funds 0.25
3 Month Libor 0.312 0.308
10 Year Bond 2.153 2.106
Commodities Last - / + (%)
Gold (US$ / oz) 1830.93 -3.5
Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 85.72 +1.9
CRB Index 334.43 +0.8
Equities Last - / + (%)
ASX 200 4173 +2.2
Dow Jones 11177 +3.0
FTSE 5129 +0.7
Hang Seng 19876 +2.0
Nikkei 8733 +1.2