Automobile and Society: What can reasonably be done

to reduce road transport CO2 emissions

FISITA World Automotive Summit 2014

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Y. van der Straaten OICA Secretary General

Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Outline

1.  CO2 of Road Transport - the Facts

2.  Continuous Improvements to Vehicles

3.  Further Market growth

4.  The Integrated Approach

5.  The ultimate vision

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Share of road transport in global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only

Non-transport related

Road Transport

Other Transport (air, rail, shipping)

16,5%

3 Source: CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2013 Edition), IEA, Paris

Total CO2 emissions (2011) from fuel combustion (million ton) 31342 Non-transport related 24341 77.7%

Road Transport 5172 16.5% Other Transport (air, rail, shipping) 1829 5.8%

Continuous improvements

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ACEA: Cars sold in 2013 were 4 % more efficient than the year before, according to provisional data. …In 2013 the European Union fleet already collectively met its legal target for 2015.

Sources: Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the EU: summary of data for 2013, EEA, April 2014 + ACEA

EEA - 2013: "…Manufacturers have once more improved their performance in terms of CO2 emissions from passenger cars…This is the first year when the average CO2 emissions of the European fleet are below the 2015 emissions target. "

Factors for expected further growth

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Middle class in 2030: 5 billion people Purchasing power: X 3 by 2030

Goods transport

Economic growth

Purchasing power

Mobility

Sources: The World Bank, Kharas and Gertz 2010 Ernst&Young, Middle class growth in emerging markets

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Motorization rate 2012

594

693

551

525

342

418

Average rate: 170 veh./1,000 inh.

791

624

276

187

279 175

111 60 84 79

18

73

713

279

191

317

173 191

NAFTA: 647

C&S America: 160

AFRICA: 42 Asia (exc J&SK)/ Oceania/Middle east: 67

J&SK: 539

RU/TK/Other Europe: 254 EU 27/EFTA: 563

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Continuous growth of vehicles on the road? Evolution of global park on the road

In billion vehicles

?

The Integrated Approach

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June 2010 www.oica.net

Time is needed for new vehicles Ø  Lead-time needed (5 to 7 years) from R&D to market introduction Ø  Minimum 10 to 15 years to replace existing fleet

Ø  Several factors can delay replacement of vehicle fleet:

è Cost of new technologies è Economic environment/purchasing power è Fiscal policies 9

Benefits of fleet renewal

10

129  

116  

95  

74  

64  

49  

24  17  

30   29  

27  

0  

20  

40  

60  

80  

100  

120  

140  

2010   2015   2020   2025   2030  

CO2  em

ission

s  [Mt  C

O2]  

CO2  emissions  of  the  vehicle  park  -­‐  France  

TOTAL  

HCV  park  

Passenger  cars  park  

LCV  park  

-­‐13  Mt,  i.e.  -­‐10%  

-­‐26  Mt,  i.e.  -­‐35%  

-­‐33  Mt,  i.e.  -­‐26%  

-­‐11  Mt,  i.e.  -­‐15%  

Historical  data   ProjecLons  

Source: CCFA

Benefits of fleet renewal

Some additional examples:

Ø  Germany (source: VDA): reducing car fleet age by only 1 year è saves 2 million tons CO2 every year

Ø  USA (source: NHTSA): 2009 CARS program è saves 9 million tons CO2 over 25 years

Fiscal policies can shape consumers' demands!

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Traffic Flow Improvement

Studies prove negative influence of traffic congestion: è  Congestion (30 km/h) vs Free flowing traffic (70 km/h): + 25% (Renault)

è  7 billion litres of gas wasted yearly on congested roads in US (US Treasury Department 2012)

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DEKRA 2007 Source: Roads in Japan - 2014 Road Bureau - Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Infrastructure measures to improve traffic flow

Ø  Missing links

Ø  But there are limits to infrastructure expansions! 13

Tokyo: Central Circular Route in Dec. 2007

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

How to Use the Existing Infrastructure

Improvements are possible in an integrated approach: è Road infrastructure, city planning, …

è Traffic management

è Navigation systems - Vehicle connectivity (V2V,

V2I)

è Traffic rules enforcement - driver behaviour and discipline !!!!!

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IC

EV

UR:BAN - PROJECT as example

Ø  German project with ministry, manufacturers, suppliers, research institutes, communities, etc.

Ø  Cooperative systems Ø  Data transmission between traffic control centres, infrastructure

and vehicles Ø  Example:

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• Selection of best route depending on propulsion systems for energy use optimisation

•  Traffic conditions, traffic lights, … • Higher traffic efficiency, lower emissions and CO2

Other Examples of Smarter Transport

Ø  VICS - Vehicle Information and Communication System / Japan: > 2 million ton CO2 saved yearly

Ø  ETC - Electronic Toll Collection: 1 million ton CO2 saved yearly if ETC used by 80% of drivers in Japan

Ø  Road transport logistics, incl. longer vehicle combinations: concrete examples show 3 - 20 % saving!

Ø  Re-organisation of transport, e.g. Urban Distribution Centres

Ø  Car pooling/car sharing/ride sharing Ø  Etc.

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ECO-Driving Ø  Save more than 10% on fuel: "When 50 AA employees took

part in an eco-driving experiment with Auto Express magazine they saved an average 10% on their weekly fuel bills, with the best achieving an incredible 33% saving." (Source: Automobile Association" - UK)

Ø  Extremely cost/effective! No cost, only gains!

Ø  Applicable immediately and to all vehicles

Ø  Immediate results, including on safety!

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Connectivity: opportunities and challenges

Ø  Improvements to road safety Ø  Improved traffic flow

BUT: Ø Dedicated broadband width

+ harmonised radio frequencies Ø Piracy / Hacking

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Vehicle automation: the next step?

?

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?

Levels of Automated Driving

Level of automation*

Driver continuously performs the longitudinal and lateral dynamic driving task

Driver continuously performs the longitudinal or lateral dynamic driving task

Driver must monitor the dynamic driving task and the driving environment at all times

Driver does not need to monitor the dynamic driving task nor the driving environment at all times; must always be in a position to resume control

No intervening vehicle system active

The other driving task is performed by the system

System performs longitudinal and lateral driving task in a defined use case

System performs longitudinal and lateral driving task in a defined use case. Recognizes its performance limits and requests driver to resume the dynamic driving task with sufficient time margin.

Aut

omat

ion ç

è D

river

Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 [Level 3] Level 4 Level 5 Driver Only Assisted

Partial

Automation Conditional Automation

High Automation

Full Automation

Driver is not required during defined use case

System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations in a defined use case.

System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations encountered during the entire journey. No driver required.

*terms acc. to SAE J3016 20

The Ultimate Vision

Zero emissions Zero accidents Zero congestion

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HARMONIZATION

Thank you for your attention

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