average vacancy duration decreased in march dr. steven j. davis university of chicago booth school...
TRANSCRIPT
Average Vacancy Duration Decreased in March
Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business
May 12, 2015
http://DHIhiringindicators.com/
Sample Statistical Products Derived from JOLTS Data
Charts and tables produced using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey following the analytical framework and measurement methods in Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2012, 2013).
Steven J. Davisfaculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven.davis/
May 12, 2015
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
DHI-DFH Index of Recruiting Intensity Per Vacancy,January 2001 to March 2015
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Public and Private Sector Recruiting Intensity IndicesJanuary 2001 to March 2015
Private Sector (left axis)
Public Sector (right axis)
DecennialCensusHiring
Jan-01
Jul-01Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-1515
17
19
21
23
25
27
DHI-DFH Measure of National Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to March 2015Working
Days
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
DHI-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to March 2015
Private Sector (left axis) Public Sector (right axis)
Working Days
Working Days
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
National Labor Market Slackness MeasuresVacancy Duration (left axis) V-U Ratio Rescaled quits rateVacancies to Short Term Unemployment
The Quits Rate time series is rescaled to have the same variance and mean as the Vacancies to Unemployment Ratio. Short Term Unemployment is the sum of individuals who have been unemployed for 26 weeks or less.
Mar
-01
Sep-
01M
ar-0
2Se
p-02
Mar
-03
Sep-
03M
ar-0
4Se
p-04
Mar
-05
Sep-
05M
ar-0
6Se
p-06
Mar
-07
Sep-
07M
ar-0
8Se
p-08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09M
ar-1
0Se
p-10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11M
ar-1
2Se
p-12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13M
ar-1
4Se
p-14
Mar
-150.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Recruiting Intensity Indices for Selected IndustriesJanuary 2001 to March 2015
Professional and Business Services Construction Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
Recruiting Intensity Indices by Census RegionJanuary 2001 to March 2015
Midwest Northeast South West
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
DHI-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment Size, January 2001 to February 2015
1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999 1000-4999 5000+
Working Days 3 Month Moving Average
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Recruiting Intensity Index by Establishment Size, January 2001 to February 2015
1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999
Three-Month Moving Averages
Recruiting Intensity Index
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2003
2004 to 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Mar. 2015
Resources 0.99 1.07 1.05 0.70 1.00 0.96 1.06 0.93Construction 1.07 1.04 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.90 0.89Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.92 0.91Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.04 1.04Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.12 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.10 1.07Information 1.10 1.08 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.05 1.13 1.18Financial Services 1.05 1.09 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.98 0.95 0.96Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.07 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.95 1.01 1.00Education 1.00 0.99 1.05 0.97 0.99 0.96 1.00 0.94Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.97 0.99Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 0.98Other Services 1.01 1.07 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.98 0.96 1.06Government 1.06 1.05 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.93 0.98 1.03
Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 1.00 1.01
Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2003
2004 to 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Mar. 2015
Resources 12.0 14.0 18.0 13.7 19.0 18.5 22.4 14.1Construction 7.8 8.7 7.3 4.5 6.1 9.6 10.5 11.9Manufacturing 17.4 21.0 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.6 29.1 32.4Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.8 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.4 18.9 19.6Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 17.3 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.5 23.8 26.7Information 25.9 36.2 34.5 24.8 41.0 36.4 34.8 36.6Financial Services 28.0 32.2 27.6 25.7 33.8 36.0 38.6 42.4Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 21.4 16.4 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.0Education 21.3 24.9 22.5 18.3 20.6 23.5 25.8 34.6Health Services 39.1 35.8 36.3 29.8 33.7 34.6 38.0 41.0Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.9 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.8 19.6 20.4Other Services 22.3 18.4 23.7 17.1 18.6 20.2 20.8 20.9Government 32.9 30.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.9 37.5 40.2Non-Farm 19.2 20.1 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2 26.0
Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to
20032004 to
2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Mar.
2015Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 21.4 16.4 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.0
Private 18.3 19.4 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 23.3 25.0
Non-Farm 19.2 20.1 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2 26.0
Recruiting Intensity Index
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to
20032004 to
2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Mar.
2015Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.07 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.95 1.01 1.00Private 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99 1.00Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 1.00 1.01
Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment SizeSelected Time Periods
Class Size 2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014 % chg. 2009 - 2014
1-9 19.3 18.3 17.3 19.8 12.8 16.5 18.7 23.5 84%
10-49 15.2 14.9 17.5 16.2 13.0 15.8 19.2 20.7 59%
50-249 15.7 16.9 19.4 18.3 15.3 17.9 21.1 21.3 40%
250-999 21.0 21.9 25.7 24.9 18.0 24.6 24.0 26.5 47%
1000-4999 36.2 35.0 44.2 35.6 30.7 34.3 37.3 36.7 19%
5000+ 47.4 43.7 37.1 39.6 40.6 55.1 56.7 57.0 40%
Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Establishment Size and Time Period
Class Size 2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014 % chg. 2009 - 2014
1-9 0.99 1.10 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.90 -5%
10-49 1.05 1.10 1.07 0.95 0.89 0.90 0.94 0.95 7%
50-249 1.09 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.81 0.90 0.92 1.02 25%
250-999 1.06 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.83 0.94 1.00 1.04 25%
1000-4999 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.04 0.84 0.94 0.96 1.10 32%
5000+ 0.97 1.11 1.38 1.13 0.76 0.79 0.83 0.90 20%
ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), “Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.
Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.
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