ba 572 - j. galván1 the future emerging technologies it and e-commerce
TRANSCRIPT
BA 572 - J. Galván 1
THE FUTURE
Emerging technologies IT and e-commerce
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TECHNOLOGY FUTURES
Communications Input/Output Computing
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COMMUNICATIONS
Bandwidth will get much, much cheaper and more available. More people will have more decision-making
power in organizations. Will videoconferencing be as good as being
there? Wireless will be increasingly important. There will never be enough bandwidth.
...or will there?
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INPUT OUTPUT
Human interfaces will improve, but less rapidly than some expect. Speech Written natural language Tangible interfaces Electronic paper Neural interfaces
Computers will be more capable of acting in the physical world. Vision Robotics / Motion Desktop fabs RFID
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COMPUTING
Computers will be much, much faster and cheaper. Limits to current technologies?
Quantum computing Nanotechnology DNA computing/ biological computing
Computers will be everywhere. Ubiquitous computing Information appliances Wearables
Computers will be smarter. Limits to artificial intelligence?
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POSSIBLE FUTURES AND FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS (EC)
Identify possible future scenarios Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis
Technical feasibility Does the necessary technology exist? Is the necessary technology likely to exist in time?
Economic feasibility Does the outcome promise a reasonable return?
Political feasibility Can the task be done in the context of the existing or expected social and political environment?
Scenario not feasible if any answer is no
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WILD CARDS
Unanticipated technological changes Can make current scenarios of the future
irrelevant
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TIERED CLASSES INTERNET SERVICES.
Is it likely that such a system for “classes of service” will become the norm?
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POSSIBLE FUTURES
1. Tiered services will fade away2. Tiered services will be successful but
no obvious standard will emerge3. Tiered services will become the new
standard
Example: Consider the third possible future
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TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY
There is no technical reason why tiered services cannot emerge in the “foreseeable” future
Tiered Internet services are technically feasible
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ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY
Model exists Television
Broadcast Basic cable Premium cable Pay-per-view
Tiered services are economically feasible
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POLITICAL FEASIBILITY
Tiered services will change the Internet Preferential treatment for some The “information should be free” credo
Winners Service providers – fees Higher-tier users – quality and speed
Losers Serious, independent Web surfers Online advertisers The information have-nots
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WEB SERVICES
Intermediary-supplied e-utilities Allow incompatible applications to interact Similar to ASP services Software building blocks
Examples Credit card approval Currency conversion Word to PDF Airline to car rental links
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THINK OF A WEB SERVICE AS A REMOTE SUBROUTINE.
Currencyconversion
Web service
Acme'saccounts payableWeb application
Accountspayabledatabase
Europeansupplier's
billingWeb application
Invoice
E
$Record
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WEB SERVICES: POSSIBLE FUTURES
Web services are mostly hype They will fade away Custom solution better option
Web services will be successful but no dominant standard will emerge Trading partners with incompatible services
Web services will be successful and a dominant standard will emerge Best outcome for supply chain integration
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TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY
Web services are technically feasible Intermediary XML applications common
Question: Will a standard emerge? Islands, continents, planets of automation Historically, a few firms will dominate Lock-in attempts will abound
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ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY
Web services look promising CIO article – $15.5 billion by 2005
Expect fierce competition Risk – vaporware
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POLITICAL FEASIBILITY
Winners if a single standard emerges The vendor who owns the standard
Microsoft .NET Sun Microsystems J2EE IBM Tivoli software portfolio
Risk – monopoly, collusion Cautions and concerns
Excessive hype Publicly available services diminish competitive
advantage
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THE FUTURE OF WEB SERVICES
Consider the firms pushing Web services IBM, Microsoft, Sun their track records are good They have deep pockets Their long-term success depends on customer lock-in
Accelerating pace of change Web services can cut response time Web services can cut development cost
Multiple “standards” most likely outcome Incompatibilities with trading partners will continue to
be a problem
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TECHNOLOGY
Wireless communications Becoming ubiquitous Calling areas expanding Trend toward fixed monthly fee
Short-range wireless also exploding Bluetooth Wi-Fi
Cautions Exposure to radiation? Being “always on”
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BUSINESS
Value chain/supply chain integration Limit – frictionless e-commerce Will lead to intense competition Could lead to consolidation
Physical security improvements Disperse potential targets Smaller offices in smaller towns Telecommuting Parallel to Interstate highway system
Real-time employee monitoring
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EDUCATION
Pace of change accelerating Need for continuous retraining Commencement marks a beginning
Education infrastructure inconvenient New educational models emerging
Evening, weekend, on site Internet based
New models will be source of growth Quality a concern – accreditation Risk – credentialing
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VIDEO GAME PLATFORMS ARE THE STATE OF THE ART.
Wild card Near future source
of interactive learning/training environments
Critical mass of gamers exists
May change nature of education, training or life-long learning
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THE TOTAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING PIE.
Online
Traditional
Today 2020
Online
Traditional
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E-COMMERCE AND YOUR FUTURE
Important to consider Ripple effects Unintended side effects Lock-in opportunities and constraints Focus on your future
Expect to see growing attention to security and privacy in EC/EB system deployments
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IT’LL ALWAYS HAPPEN!