World Delta Summit, Jakarta, 23 november 2011

Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands

Aline te Linde, Rutger van der Brugge, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem Bruggeman

Delta Programme

3 general programmes• Safety against flooding• Fresh water• Building and

transformation

6 regional programmes

Delta Commissioner and small staff

5 Delta decisions in 2015

Delta Law

2050 and 210018 november 2011

18 november 2011

Delta Scenarios

What?

Climate change and spatial developments

Data for model input (quantitative)

Story lines and maps (qualititative)

Why?

Problem and sensitivity analysis

Development of strategies

Robustness analysis

Inspiration for innovation

No prediction, no ideal planned future, but: plausible futures

Available since May 2011

Actors and knowledge flow

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KNMI

Deltares

PBL

Feedback scientific expert team

Workshops with stakeholders

Staff Delta Commissioner

All SPs

Ministry

4 climate change scenarios(KNMI, 2006)

Available scenarios

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4 socio-economic scenarios(WLO, 2006)

Available scenarios

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Add fig

national

public

national

international

public private

4 Delta Scenarios

Socio-economic growth

Socio-economic shrink

Moderateclimate change

Fastclimate change

Crowd

Rest

Steam

Warm

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Corners of the field

2050 2100

0 2 4 610

14

18

22

26

30

climate change

temperature rise (°C)

socio-economicdevelopment

inhabitantsNL

(x million)2000

1

sea level rise (cm)

0 10 50 100

4 scenario's, two periods

spatial pressure

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Use of scenarios in the Delta Programme

Scenario 1

Safety

‘20 ‘40 ‘602000 2100‘70 ‘90‘10

Intake Goudabrackish

Salt intrusion

W-NL

Maeslantbarrier

Dordrecht

Peak discharge large rivers

Sea level

Low flows

‘50

/ fresh water

Economy

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Change in discharge regime

Lobith, Rijn - 2100

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Maand

Lobith, Rijn - 2050

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Maand

Ver

ande

ring

(%)

Relative change of the mean monthly discharge of the Rhine river

Month Month

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Extreme discharges Rhine river 2050

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 100

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5x 10

4

← 20 ← 100 ← 1250

gumbel variate (-)

Afv

oer (m

3 /s)

overschrijdingsfrequentlielijn Rhine.Lobith.2050 (gumbel schaal)

Reference

G

G+W

W+

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Land subsidence in 2050

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

.000000

(m)

0 - 0.00001

0.00001 - 0.005

0.005 - 0.01

0.01 - 0.1

0.1 - 0.3

0.3 - 0.5

0.5 - 1

1.000000001 - 5

Without climate changeup to 1 m / 100 yrsin peat areas

under fast climate change: twice

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Salt intrustion

Change in chloride concentration ground water fast climate change scenario

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Spatial development last century

1900 1960 2010

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2050: RC vs GE

live work agricult. nature. live work agricult. nature.

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Difference between scenarios

Difference:

GE more urbanisation

RC more concentration

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2100: REST and WARM vs STEAM and CROWD

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Impression CROWD and STEAM beyond 2050

Growth scenario

high density urbanized areas

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Impression REST and WARM

Shrink scenario

more space for nature

Dilemmas on the science-policy interface

Bandwith / uncertainty

Long-term: storylines, qualitative

Mean values

Small spatial resolution

Most likely scenario

Long-term: quantification

Extreme values

High spatial resolution

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Science Policy

Include (adaptation) measures?

Include wild cards?

Conclusions

• When developing scenarios for water / delta management: do not focus on climate change only, but also consider socio-economic change (land use, soil subsidence)

• Involve all parties early:– Learn eachothers language– Discuss dilemmas– Level expectations

• Continue communication, but with strict facilictation of the meetings / workshops for efficiency

Knowledge brokering

Thank you

Aline te Linde

aline.telinde@deltares.nl

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24

Moderate climate change in the scenarios REST and FULL

year reference (‘2010’)

2050 2100

ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.100 3.200

ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 2.000 2.100

ave. discharge Meuse in februari 490 500 520

ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 93 97

sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 15 35

extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s)

12.000 13.000 14.000

extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.000 3.200

ave. precipitation winter + 4% + 7%

ave. precipitation summer + 6% + 12%

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Fast climate change in the scenarios STEAM and WARM

year referentie (‘2010’)

2050 2100

ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.400 4000

ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 1.300 900

ave. discharge Meuse in februari 480 530 590

ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 48 30

sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 35 85

extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s) 12.000 14.000 17.000

extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.200 3.500

ave. precipitation winter + 14 % + 28 %

ave. precipitation summer - 10% - 19 %