![Page 1: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
World Delta Summit, Jakarta, 23 november 2011
Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands
Aline te Linde, Rutger van der Brugge, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem Bruggeman
![Page 2: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Delta Programme
3 general programmes• Safety against flooding• Fresh water• Building and
transformation
6 regional programmes
Delta Commissioner and small staff
5 Delta decisions in 2015
Delta Law
2050 and 210018 november 2011
![Page 4: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
18 november 2011
Delta Scenarios
What?
Climate change and spatial developments
Data for model input (quantitative)
Story lines and maps (qualititative)
Why?
Problem and sensitivity analysis
Development of strategies
Robustness analysis
Inspiration for innovation
No prediction, no ideal planned future, but: plausible futures
Available since May 2011
![Page 5: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Actors and knowledge flow
18 november 2011
KNMI
Deltares
PBL
Feedback scientific expert team
Workshops with stakeholders
Staff Delta Commissioner
All SPs
Ministry
![Page 6: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
4 climate change scenarios(KNMI, 2006)
Available scenarios
18 november 2011
![Page 7: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
4 socio-economic scenarios(WLO, 2006)
Available scenarios
18 november 2011
Add fig
national
public
national
international
public private
![Page 8: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
4 Delta Scenarios
Socio-economic growth
Socio-economic shrink
Moderateclimate change
Fastclimate change
Crowd
Rest
Steam
Warm
![Page 9: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
18 november 2011
Corners of the field
2050 2100
0 2 4 610
14
18
22
26
30
climate change
temperature rise (°C)
socio-economicdevelopment
inhabitantsNL
(x million)2000
1
sea level rise (cm)
0 10 50 100
4 scenario's, two periods
spatial pressure
![Page 10: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
18 november 2011
Use of scenarios in the Delta Programme
Scenario 1
Safety
‘20 ‘40 ‘602000 2100‘70 ‘90‘10
Intake Goudabrackish
Salt intrusion
W-NL
Maeslantbarrier
Dordrecht
Peak discharge large rivers
Sea level
Low flows
‘50
/ fresh water
Economy
![Page 11: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
18 november 2011
Change in discharge regime
Lobith, Rijn - 2100
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Maand
Lobith, Rijn - 2050
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Maand
Ver
ande
ring
(%)
Relative change of the mean monthly discharge of the Rhine river
Month Month
![Page 12: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
18 november 2011
Extreme discharges Rhine river 2050
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 100
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5x 10
4
← 20 ← 100 ← 1250
gumbel variate (-)
Afv
oer (m
3 /s)
overschrijdingsfrequentlielijn Rhine.Lobith.2050 (gumbel schaal)
Reference
G
G+W
W+
![Page 13: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
18 november 2011
Land subsidence in 2050
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
(m)
0 - 0.00001
0.00001 - 0.005
0.005 - 0.01
0.01 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1.000000001 - 5
Without climate changeup to 1 m / 100 yrsin peat areas
under fast climate change: twice
![Page 14: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
18 november 2011
Salt intrustion
Change in chloride concentration ground water fast climate change scenario
![Page 15: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
18 november 2011
Spatial development last century
1900 1960 2010
![Page 16: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
18 november 2011
2050: RC vs GE
live work agricult. nature. live work agricult. nature.
![Page 17: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
18 november 2011
Difference between scenarios
Difference:
GE more urbanisation
RC more concentration
![Page 18: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18 november 2011
2100: REST and WARM vs STEAM and CROWD
![Page 19: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
18 november 201118 november 2011
Impression CROWD and STEAM beyond 2050
Growth scenario
high density urbanized areas
![Page 20: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
18 november 201118 november 2011
Impression REST and WARM
Shrink scenario
more space for nature
![Page 21: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Dilemmas on the science-policy interface
Bandwith / uncertainty
Long-term: storylines, qualitative
Mean values
Small spatial resolution
Most likely scenario
Long-term: quantification
Extreme values
High spatial resolution
18 november 2011
Science Policy
Include (adaptation) measures?
Include wild cards?
![Page 22: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions
• When developing scenarios for water / delta management: do not focus on climate change only, but also consider socio-economic change (land use, soil subsidence)
• Involve all parties early:– Learn eachothers language– Discuss dilemmas– Level expectations
• Continue communication, but with strict facilictation of the meetings / workshops for efficiency
Knowledge brokering
![Page 24: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
18 november 2011
24
Moderate climate change in the scenarios REST and FULL
year reference (‘2010’)
2050 2100
ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.100 3.200
ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 2.000 2.100
ave. discharge Meuse in februari 490 500 520
ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 93 97
sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 15 35
extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s)
12.000 13.000 14.000
extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.000 3.200
ave. precipitation winter + 4% + 7%
ave. precipitation summer + 6% + 12%
![Page 25: Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052619/55682346d8b42afe5c8b5560/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
18 november 2011
25
Fast climate change in the scenarios STEAM and WARM
year referentie (‘2010’)
2050 2100
ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.400 4000
ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 1.300 900
ave. discharge Meuse in februari 480 530 590
ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 48 30
sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 35 85
extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s) 12.000 14.000 17.000
extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.200 3.500
ave. precipitation winter + 14 % + 28 %
ave. precipitation summer - 10% - 19 %