Championing innovation, enabling societies to live sustainably

BalatonTrend: An Experiment in Building Next Generation Stakeholder Information Systems for Indicator and

Multimedia Commentary Visualization

Laszlo Pinter, Ph.D.

Measurement and Assessment Program

IISD

OECD and Statistics Sweden Seminar on Turning Statistics into Knowledge

Stockholm

May 26, 2008

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What is BalatonTrend?

• Pilot information system and clearing house for presenting regional ‘sustainability’ information and analysis in multiple formats simply

• Help call attention to vulnerabilities, interlinkagesand adaptation options in an integrated assessment framework

• Content developed in the context of the Lake Balaton Adaptation Pilot Project of UNDP/GEF

• Design financed by IISD Innovation Fund• Phase I beta functional, work in progress

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Photo credit> http://metal.elte.hu/aft.elte.hu/Szeminariumok/2004/ELTE-ETH%20Materials%20Science%20Seminar%202004/15%20Lake%20Balaton.jpg

Conceptual framework

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Variability and change of the environment

Variability and change of the human system

Exposure unit

Ecosystem

Human system

Management and coordination of

adaptation and responses

External responseand adaptation

mechanisms

Information

Influence

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Design criteria

• Simple interface

• Present information in multiple formats (dynamic time series charts, tables, maps, interpretive text, multimedia commentaries)

• Multi-scale perspectives

• Allow cross-community comparison of indicators

• Simple data warehouse and text editing capacity

• Transferability of management to limited capacity organizational environment

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Regular updates

Storylines & policy alternatives

Interpretation & commentaries

Data

Priority issues and core indicators

Conceptual framework, architecture

Process / content integration

Scoping

Indicator system development

Data collection , processing, quality control and analysis

Implementation and monitoring

Scenario development & selection of preferred policy options

Integrated assessment

ENGAGEMENT

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Ecological

1. water quality 1.1 Composition of algal biomass

1.2 Water quality index

2. Pollutant loading from the watershed 2.1 Phosphorus load

2.2 Erosion potential

3. Hydrological conditions of the lake and

watershed- water quantity

3.1 Water level

3.2 Precipitation level

3.3 Groundwater level in karsts and wells

4. Biodiversity 4.1 Species composition of fish

4.2 Number and composition of wintering bird populations

5. Condition of shoreline 5.1 Ratio of natural and built up shoreline

5.2 Fragmentation of reed beds

6. Landscape structure and land-use 6.1 Land-use change

7. Environmental infrastructure and

material consumption

7.1 Sewage discharge

7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions

7.3 Per capita solid waste production

8. Transportation 8.1 Traffic intensity in lakeside municipalities

9. Climate 9.1 Water temperature

9.2 Wind speed

9.3 Air temperature

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Economic

10. Economic development 10.1 Settlement economic potential (SEP)

11. Employment and seasonality 11.1 Unemployment

12. Economic diversity 12.1 Share of tourism in the economy

13. Tourism 13.1 Proportion of domestic versus foreign tourism

13.2 Tourism in the main season

14. Agriculture 14.1 Area of cultivated vineyards

Social

15. Subsistence and poverty 15.1 Percent of people who receive local government aid

welfare

16. Awareness 16.1 Number of civil society organizations per 1000 residents

17. Demography 17.1 Balance of migration

17.2 Rate of dependency

18. Crime and security 18.1 Number of property-related crimes per 10,000 inhabitants

19. Education 19.1 Percent of people who completed at least elementary

school

20. Public health 20.1 Life expectancy

Indicator sheets

• How is this indicator defined?

• What is happening in the region?

• What are the changes observed?

• How is society responding?

• What could be anticipated in the future?

• Charts, data tables and metadata?

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Comparison to thresholds:Average daily water level between 1999 - 2004

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Maximum

Optimumupper limit

Lower limit

Actual

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1951

2002

Database

• Administrator enters dataset into private content management system

• Data stored in relational database

• HXTML Strict Coding Standard compliant design

• FusionCharts Pro used to render animated charts from MS SQL database

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Next steps…

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Thematic and integrated modeling (ongoing)

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…helping to enrich scenario narratives and indicator range estimates

Next steps – assessment process

• Identify critical thresholds / tipping points where possible

• Develop indicator range estimates for scenario narratives

• Develop preferred scenario with adaptation pathway, validate in stakeholder workshops

• Backcast policy pathway for preferred scenario and range of specific policy measures

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Next steps - BalatonTrend

• Complete adding indicators and interpretation at regional and some community level

• Geospatial analysis• Additional commentaries prepared by students• Launch in Hungarian in Fall 2008• Transfer management authority to Lake Balaton

Development Coordination Agency• Phase II

– develop component for showing projections– Integration with modeling engine?

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How does all this make a difference?

• Working on the basis of an ‘impact strategy’• Engagement process is key (media, students, local NGOs

like Women for Lake Balaton, Alliance of Lake Balaton Municipalities, business associations, levels of government)

• Link with key policy processes at the right time and place– Review of Lake Balaton Law– Action Plan for National Climate Change Strategy– National implementation program for EU Water Framework

Directive– Build indicator specific adaptation criteria into grant program of

Lake Balaton Development Coordination Agency

• Explore possibility of ‘adopt an indicator’ model

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

http://test.balatontrend.org