bank of america merrill lynch 2017 refining conference tim ...€¦ · 01/03/2017 · bank of...
TRANSCRIPT
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2017 Refining Conference Tim Griffith, Senior Vice President and CFO
March 2, 2017
Forward‐Looking Statements
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation ("MPC") and MPLX LP ("MPLX"). These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, expectations, estimates and projections concerning the business and operations of MPC and MPLX, including proposed strategic initiatives. You can identify forward-looking statements by words such as "anticipate," "believe," "design," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "goal," "guidance," "imply," "intend," "objective," "opportunity," "outlook," "plan," "position," "pursue," "prospective," "predict," "project," "potential," "seek," "strategy," "target," "could," "may," "should," "would," "will" or other similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond the companies' control and are difficult to predict. Factors that could cause MPC's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: the time, costs and ability to obtain regulatory or other approvals and consents and otherwise consummate the strategic initiatives discussed herein; the satisfaction or waiver of conditions in the agreements governing the strategic initiatives discussed herein; our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives related to the strategic initiatives discussed herein; adverse changes in laws including with respect to tax and regulatory matters; inability to agree with the MPLX conflicts committee with respect to the timing of and value attributed to assets identified for dropdown; changes to the expected construction costs and timing of projects; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; the availability and pricing of crude oil and other feedstocks; slower growth in domestic and Canadian crude supply; completion of pipeline capacity to areas outside the U.S. Midwest; consumer demand for refined products; transportation logistics; the reliability of processing units and other equipment; MPC's ability to successfully implement growth opportunities; modifications to MPLX earnings and distribution growth objectives, and other risks described below with respect to MPLX; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations, including the cost of compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard, and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; changes to MPC's capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPC's industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPC's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2016, filed with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Factors that could cause MPLX's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: negative capital market conditions, including a persistence or increase of the current yield on common units, which is higher than historical yields, adversely affecting MPLX's ability to meet its distribution growth guidance; the time, costs and ability to obtain regulatory or other approvals and consents and otherwise consummate the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; the satisfaction or waiver of conditions in the agreements governing the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives related to the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; adverse changes in laws including with respect to tax and regulatory matters; inability to agree with respect to the timing of and value attributed to assets identified for dropdown; the adequacy of MPLX's capital resources and liquidity, including, but not limited to, availability of sufficient cash flow to pay distributions, and the ability to successfully execute its business plans and growth strategy; the timing and extent of changes in commodity prices and demand for crude oil, refined products, feedstocks or other hydrocarbon-based products; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; changes to the expected construction costs and timing of projects; completion of midstream infrastructure by competitors; disruptions due to equipment interruption or failure, including electrical shortages and power grid failures; the suspension, reduction or termination of MPC's obligations under MPLX's commercial agreements; modifications to earnings and distribution growth objectives; the level of support from MPC, including dropdowns, alternative financing arrangements, taking equity units, and other methods of sponsor support, as a result of the capital allocation needs of the enterprise as a whole and its ability to provide support on commercially reasonable terms; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; changes to MPLX's capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPLX's industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPLX's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2016, filed with the SEC. In addition, the forward-looking statements included herein could be affected by general domestic and international economic and political conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed here, in MPC's Form 10-K or in MPLX's Form 10-K could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Copies of MPC's Form 10-K are available on the SEC website, MPC's website at http://ir.marathonpetroleum.com or by contacting MPC's Investor Relations office. Copies of MPLX's Form 10-K are available on the SEC website, MPLX's website at http://ir.mplx.com or by contacting MPLX's Investor Relations office.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow are non-GAAP financial measures provided in this presentation. EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow reconciliations to the nearest GAAP financial measure are included in the Appendix to this presentation. EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow are not defined by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income attributable to MPC or MPLX, net cash provided by operating activities or other financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. The EBITDA forecasts related to certain projects were determined on an EBITDA-only basis. Accordingly, information related to the elements of net income, including tax and interest, are not available and, therefore, reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the nearest GAAP financial measures have not been provided.
Our Priorities for Value Creation
3
Execute Strategic Actions to Enhance Value for Investors
Maintain Top-Tier Safety and Environmental performance
Increase Capital Return to Shareholders
Grow Higher Valued and Stable Cash-flow businesses
Enhance Margins for our Refining operations
Strong Operational Performance and Responsible Corporate Leadership
4
5
Delivering Significant Returns for Our Shareholders
2016 Refining Margin-Enhancing Accomplishment
6
Increased production capacity of high-value alkylate and light
products
30,000 BPD dock expansion increasing optionality for refined
product placement
Increased light crude processing and overall crude
capacity
Expanded Galveston Bay resid hydrocracker capacity and improved oil gas recovery
~$90 MM EBITDA/yr. ~$50 MM EBITDA/yr. ~$120 MM EBITDA/yr. (2016-2020E Avg.)
Commissioned Light Crude Upgrade
Export Capacity Expansion
FCC/Alky Revamp Completed
Completed First Phase
Speedway Sets Multiple All-time Highs in 2016
7
EBITDA Light Product Sales Merchandise Margin
Merchandise Margin
gallons
2016 MPLX Accomplishments
8
Start-up of 3rd
Distribution growth of
Commenced Operations
at Hopedale
Entered Delaware Basin
Complex
Increased natural gas processed volumes by in Marcellus & Utica and Southwest
Strengthened Balance Sheet Available Liquidity
Reduced Leverage to target Debt to LTM EBITDA
One-year anniversary of
MarkWest with
Increased fractionated volumes by in Marcellus & Utica
Executing Strategic Plan to Enhance Value
9
Asset Dropdowns
MLP-Qualifying EBITDA
Exchange for
Expected ~$4.5 B after-tax cash proceeds from dropdowns and ~$1.2 B - $1.4 B annual distributions after IDR exchange
Expected to fund substantial ongoing return of capital to shareholders consistent with maintaining an investment grade credit profile
Tangible valuation marker for MPC’s ownership interest in MPLX
Simplifies structure Expected to lower cost of capital Increased visibility to distribution growth Additional ~$1.4 B of annual EBITDA adds
substantial stable cash flow
Benefits
Evaluation Underway
Completed First Quarter Dropdown to MPLX
10
Terminal, pipeline and storage assets – 62 light product terminals with ~24 million barrels of
storage capacity – 11 pipeline systems consisting of 604 pipeline miles – 73 tanks with ~7.8 million barrels of storage capacity – Crude oil truck unloading facility at MPC’s refinery in
Canton, Ohio – Natural gas liquids storage cavern in Woodhaven,
Michigan, with ~1.8 million barrels of capacity
Total consideration of $2.015 B – $1.511 B in cash and $504 MM in MPLX equity – Represents ~8 times EBITDA multiple – ~$250 MM estimated annual EBITDA – Expected to be immediately accretive to MPLX’s
distributable cash flow
2018E LP & GP distributions MPC receives from MPLX(1)(2)
(1)Assumes ~$1.4 B of EBITDA dropped to MPLX over 2017 at ~7.0x - 9.0x; financed 50% with debt (~5.0% interest rate) and 50% equity issued to MPC at an average assumed MPLX unit price of ~$35 (2)Assumes MPLX acquires MPC’s GP/IDR interests valued between $9 B and $12 B. GP/IDR Buy-In transaction 100% financed via an exchange of MPLX equity at a unit price of ~$37 (3)Based on approximately 528 MM MPC shares outstanding as of December 31, 2016; includes after-tax cash dropdown proceeds received from MPLX (assumes 20% tax leakage) (4)Equal to MPLX LP yield grossed-up for percentage of cash distributions paid to GP
Total Midstream Value to MPC after Strategic Plan(1)(3)
MPLX Cost of Equity (4)
2016E: 8.3% 2018E Pro Forma: 6.5%
Illustrative $9 B
GP/IDR Buy-In
~$21 B
2018E Pro Forma LP distributions to MPC
b
Illustrative $12 B
GP/IDR Buy-In
~$26 B
~$3 B
(2)
~$5 - $6 B
Illustrative gross value per MPC share
~$6 + ~$17 - $21 + ~$17 - $23 = ~$40 - $50
Strategic Plan to Enhance Shareholder Value
11
~$9 - $12 B
Accelerated dropdowns
~$4 - $5 B
2017 Macro Outlook
U.S. macro picture remains solid – Expect good underlying demand for refined products despite a difficult January – Distillate demand expected to benefit from increased commercial activity
OPEC’s resolve to reduce production levels – Balanced supply and demand environment supportive of higher crude prices
Regulatory environment appears more favorable – Encouraged by early tone around energy policy
U.S. refining remains globally competitive – Sustained export advantage due to low cost natural gas and high complexity
refineries
NGL prices expected to strengthen with the broader oil complex
– Increased ethane demand as ethane cracker projects come online – Opportunity for MPLX midstream infrastructure projects
12
2017 Capital Outlook
13
Excluding Acquisitions and Dropdowns
MPC excluding MPLX ~$1.7 B Refining & Marketing (R&M) – $1,165 MM Midstream – $90 MM Speedway – $380 MM Corporate & Other – $100 MM
MPLX ~$1.7 B Growth – $1,550 MM* Maintenance – $100 MM
Midstream
MPLX
R&M Margin Enhancement
Corporate & Other
R&M Sustaining
Capital
*Represents midpoint of MPLX organic growth capital expenditure guidance
25%
9%
3% Speedway 11%
49%
3%
2017 Refining and Marketing Capital Investment Plan
14
~$325 MM Growth and Margin Enhancing Investments
STAR Program – $1.5 B multi-year staged investment – ~$85 MM investment in 2017 – Full integration of Galveston Bay and Texas City refineries – Project scope substantially preserved with attractive return
profile of nearly 30% IRR
Garyville ULSD projects – ~$120 MM total investment, ~$95 MM investment in 2017 – Additional 10 MBPD ULSD production capacity – ~75% IRR, 2018 est. completion
Galveston Bay export capacity expansion – ~$70 MM total investment, ~$9 MM investment in 2017 – Additional 115 MBPD refined product export capacity – ~20% IRR, 2019 est. completion
Galveston Bay Refinery Performance Improvements
15
Environmental Incident
Reduction
Unplanned Downtime Reduction
Reduced OPEX To Date
Unit Processing
Rate Records OSHA Recordable Injury Rate
Period of 2013-2016
Top-tier Refining Turnaround Execution
16
2014
Lower Turnaround Costs(1)
MPC Merchant Group U.S. Avg.
MPC approx. 25% below Merchant Group and 5% below U.S. Avg.
(1)Results from benchmarking studies performed by HSB Solomon Associates LLC (Solomon). Solomon performs an industry benchmarking study biennially which reports refinery results on a consistent basis for each refinery regardless of the varied company financial reporting practices. (2)Galveston Bay Refinery excluded from MPC results – purchased in 2013 and not owned during all intervals included in study
Crude
FCC
Reformer
Alky
NHT
DHT
Longer Turnaround Intervals (1,2)
MPC
U.S. Avg.
MPC approx. 15% longer than U.S. Avg.
Low
er C
ost
($/u
nit o
f cap
acity
)
Longer Span between Outages
3
7
11
15
19
23
27
31
35
55
59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22
The Marcellus/Utica Resource Play is the Leading U.S. Natural Gas Growth Play
17
Res
t of U
.S. –
Billi
on C
ubic
Fee
t per
Day
(Bcf
/d)
Note: Wellhead gas production (before flaring and NGL extraction) Sources: As of December 29, 2016. Bloomberg (PointLogic Energy/LCI Energy Insight Estimates) and Platts Bentek Oil & Gas Production Monitor
Marcellus & U
tica – Billion Cubic Feet per D
ay (Bcf/d)
Marcellus & Utica account for over 25% of total U.S. Gas Supply today and is expected
to grow to 32% by 2022
Marcellus & Utica
Rest of U.S.
Forecast Actual
2017 MPLX Organic Growth Capital Investment
18
Forecast range of $1.4 B to $1.7 B* ~$1 B to $1.3 B - natural gas and gas liquids infrastructure
– 3rd fractionation train at Hopedale completed in January – Numerous projects supporting producer customers’ growth
primarily in the prolific Marcellus Shale; 2017 expected completions include: • 400 MMcf/d of processing capacity at Sherwood • 60 MBPD of fractionation capacity at Keystone and Majorsville • Additional rich and dry-gas gathering as well as NGL pipeline
expansions in Marcellus, Utica and Southwest regions
~$400 MM - crude and refined products infrastructure – Utica build-out in connection with the recently completed
Cornerstone Pipeline – Butane cavern in Robinson, Illinois – Tank farm expansion in Texas City, Texas
*Excludes acquisitions and dropdowns
MPLX Recent Strategic Acquisitions
19
– ~$220 MM investment
– 433 mile, 22″ crude pipeline running from Cushing, Oklahoma to Wood River, Illinois, with capacity of ~230 MBPD
– Planned expansion to ~345 MBPD expected to be completed by 2Q 2018
Ozark Pipeline
Ozark Pipeline Acquisition Bakken Pipeline – $500 MM investment – ~9.2% equity interest in the Dakota Access Pipeline
(DAPL) and the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP) projects
– Expected to deliver ~470 MBPD from the Bakken/Three Forks production area to the Midwest and Gulf Coast with capacity up to ~570 MBPD
MPLX Strengthens Leading Position in Northeast
20
Recently Announced 50/50 Joint Venture with Antero Midstream
WEST VIRGINIA
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
SHERWOOD JV EXPANSION (site location TBD)
HOPEDALE
C3+ Fractionation Complex NGL Pipeline
Gas Processing Complex Processing and Fractionation Complex
Supports Antero Resources’ significant production growth profile in the Marcellus Shale
– Long-term, fee-based agreement and significant acreage dedication
Includes three 200 MMcf/d gas processing plants currently under construction at Sherwood complex
– Potential to develop up to eight additional processing facilities at Sherwood and a future expansion site
Includes 20 MBPD of existing fractionation capacity at Hopedale complex
– Option to invest in future fractionation expansions
2017 Speedway Capital Investment Plan
Planned investments of ~$380 MM – Build new stores and remodel and
rebuild existing retail locations in core markets
Delivered on goals for acquired locations
– Expect to complete remodel plan in 2017
– Planned investments achieved under budget and ahead of schedule
– ~80% of acquired stores upgraded under remodel plan
– Foundation for sales uplift, merchandise margin enhancements and synergy capture
21
Speedway Exceeding Expected Acquisition-Related Synergies
22
20
75 120
180 190 225
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014E 2014 2015E 2015 2016E 2016 2017E 2017E
$MM
Synergies and Marketing Enhancements
Guidance** Speedway Synergies R&M Synergies
47
149
*Light Product Breakeven = (Total Expense - Merchandise Margin) / Light Product Volume **Based on original announcement guidance in May 2014
Continuing to focus on marketing enhancements opportunities
2016 actual synergies exceeded revised projection of $155 MM
Reduced overall light product breakeven by ~30% in 4Q 2016 compared to 4Q 2015*
Strong Liquidity and Capitalization
Committed to maintaining investment grade credit profiles at MPC and MPLX
Substantial available liquidity at MPC and MPLX
Provides financial flexibility to fund growth projects and pursue business strategies
MPC excluding MPLX metrics provided as consolidated metrics are less useful given both the size of the partnership and its capital structure
23
As of December 31, 2016 MPC Consolidated
MPLX Adjustments(a)
MPC Excluding
MPLX ($MM except ratio data)
Debt 10,572 4,423 6,149
Mezzanine equity (MPLX conv. preferred) 1,000 1,000 -
Equity 20,203 8,219 11,984
Total capitalization 31,775 13,642 18,133
Debt-to-capital ratio (book) 33% 34%
Cash and cash equivalents 887 234 653
Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA(b) 2.5x 1.9x
(a)Adjustments made to exclude MPLX non-recourse debt and the public portion of MPLX equity (b)Calculated using face value of total debt and LTM adjusted EBITDA. Refer to appendix for reconciliation (c)Availability under MPC’s $750 MM trade receivables securitization facility is a function of eligible accounts receivable, which is affected by the refined products price environment
Liquidity Summary MPLX MPC
Cash and cash equivalents 234 653
Revolvers(c) 2,000 3,500
Accounts receivable facility(c) 684
Credit Agreement with MPC 500
Outstanding letters of credit (3) (65)
Total liquidity 2,731 4,772
EPA Proposed Denial of Request to Change the RVO Point of Obligation
24
Comment Period Ended February 22, 2017
Summary of MPC’s comments – Renewable volume obligation (RVO) is embedded in the refinery gate price of the regulated
transportation fuel (gasoline and diesel) – Moving the point of obligation to the distribution rack simply shifts the RVO cost from the refinery
gate to the rack – Price at the pump will remain unchanged because the cost of compliance has been, and will
continue to be, borne by the consumer – Moving the point of obligation will have no effect on refining segment profitability – Moving the point of obligation will not alter the viability of a single U.S. refinery
Others supporting no change to the point of obligation: the American Petroleum Institute, Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Tesoro and Murphy USA
Refining and Marketing - Market Data Update
25
Effective March 1, 2017
RIN/CBOB crack adjustment included in R&M Gross Margin Indicator – Previously part of Other Gross Margin – Adjusts the LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spread to an ex-RIN basis – Adjusts the LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spread to an 84 octane CBOB basis (i.e., the product
produced and blended with ethanol)
Other Gross Margin now categorized into crude, products and volumetric gain
Note: The information presented in MPC’s Market Data is for informational purposes only. This information is not intended to be an indicator of MPC’s past or future financial results. Some of the information is compiled from sources outside MPC. MPC does not make any representation as to the accuracy of the data and does not undertake any obligation to update, revise or continue to provide the data. MPC, its information providers, and other third parties involved in or related to the making or compiling of any of the information listed above make no representations or warranties of any kind, either express or implied, with respect to the information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof) and expressly disclaim all warranties and representations as to the information or use thereof.
1,230
1,900
(651)
581 36 (4)
87
621
(1,319) (362)
219 0
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
*LLS6-3-2-1Crack
*RIN/CBOBAdjustment
*Sweet/Sour Diff.
*LLS/WTIDiff.
*LLSPrompt vs.Delivered
*MarketStructure
OtherGrossMargin
R&MGrossMargin
DirectOperating
Costs
Other R&MSegmentIncome
$MM
Market Data Update
26
Refining and Marketing Indicative Gross Margin Reporting
*Based on 4Q 2016 market indicators using actual volumes
Crude (278) Product 759 Volumetric 140
1,230
1,900 581 36 (4)
87 (30)
(1,319) (362)
219 0
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
*LLS6-3-2-1Crack
*Sweet/Sour Diff.
*LLS/WTIDiff.
*LLSPrompt vs.Delivered
*MarketStructure
OtherGrossMargin
R&MGrossMargin
DirectOperating
Costs
Other R&MSegmentIncome
$MM
Appendix
27
Update on Strategic Actions to Enhance Shareholder Value
1) Significantly accelerated dropdowns, to be done as soon as practicable (expected in 2017), subject to requisite approvals and regulatory clearances, including tax
• MPC expects to dropdown assets generating ~$1.4 B of EBITDA to MPLX in 2017; expect valuation multiples consistent with recent industry precedents ranging from ~7.0x to ~9.0x EBITDA
2) Completed initial evaluation of strategic alternatives for general partner (GP) interests in MPLX
MPC expects to pursue an exchange of its economic interests in the GP (GP interests and IDRs) for MPLX LP units in conjunction with completion of dropdowns, with details of transaction to be announced following receipt of requisite approvals and tax clearance for all dropdowns (expected in 2017)
MPC would continue to retain control of the GP following this exchange
3) MPC’s Board to conduct a full and thorough review of Speedway, with update to be provided in mid-2017
Review by special committee to include a tax-free separation of Speedway and other strategic and financial alternatives
4) Given the significantly accelerated dropdown schedule, MPC does not plan to change its segment reporting in advance of the dropdowns
Note: All transactions subject to requisite approvals, market and other conditions, including tax and other regulatory clearances
1
2
3
4
28
Strategic Actions to Enhance Shareholder Value
29
Significant Cash to MPC for Return to Shareholders and Debt Paydown 1 2
Dropdown transactions will result in a substantial amount of cash to MPC at close; additional cash would be generated through ongoing distributions from MPLX
– Dropdowns are expected to produce ~$4.5 B of after-tax cash proceeds(1)(2)
– ~$1.2 B - $1.4 B in initial annual distributions expected from MPLX to MPC after IDR exchange(3)
Cash proceeds from dropdowns and ongoing LP distributions expected to fund substantial ongoing return of capital to MPC shareholders in a manner consistent with maintaining investment grade credit profiles at MPC and MPLX
– The dropdown and IDR exchange transactions are achievable with pro forma MPLX net leverage ≤4.0x
Note: All transactions subject to requisite approvals, market and other conditions, including tax and other regulatory clearances (1)Assumes ~$1.4 B of EBITDA dropped to MPLX at 8.0x; financed 50% with debt (~5.0% interest rate) and 50% equity issued to MPC at MPLX market price as of December 30, 2016 (2)Assumes 20% tax leakage on cash proceeds from dropdowns (3)Assumes MPLX acquires MPC’s GP/IDR interests valued between ~$9 B and ~$12 B based on a 15.0x - 20.0x multiple of PF GP/IDR distributions of ~$600 million with near-term DCF coverage expected to be above 1.1x. Also assumes GP/IDR Buy-In transaction 100% financed via an exchange of MPLX LP units at December 30, 2016 MPLX market price
Assets acquired in 1Q17
MPC Assets Expected to be Acquired by MPLX
30
~$1.4 B of Estimated Annual EBITDA
● ~55 MMBBL storage
● Multiple rail and truck loading racks and docks
● Fixed service fee per gallon
● No fuel inventory risk or working capital cost
Fuels Distribution
Refinery Logistics
● Private carrier crude oil and refined product pipelines and associated storage
● Joint interest pipelines
● Equity in 50/50 blue water JVs with Crowley
● ~60 light product; ~20 MMBBL storage; loading racks and docks
Pipelines Terminals Marine
Fuels Distribution Business Model
Services Model Marketing Model (Wholesale Distribution)
Marketing Model (Rack-to-Retail)
Business Description
– MPC outsources fuels marketing services to MPLX for those same services currently performed by MPC; generates revenue at MPLX
– Services performed for current MPC sales volumes
– Purchase MPC’s marketing businesses
– Marketing costs incurred to generate revenues
– Exposure to daily margin volatility, credit risk and bankruptcy of marketing customers
– Precedents models purchase, market, and transport fuel from independent sellers to third party and related party entities
– Services performed for Speedway volumes
Revenue Generation
– MPLX receives service fee (fixed) per gallon on fuels sold by MPC; not exposed to daily margin volatility
– Variable margin per gallon on fuels sold
– Fixed fee and/or margin (variable) per gallon
Inventory – MPLX has no fuel inventory risk or
working capital cost – Fuel inventory risk and working
capital cost – High volatility (requires
leased/owned storage capacity)
– Precedent models may have fuel inventory risk and working capital costs
MLP Qualifying
Income
– No precedent models; reviewing recently issued qualifying income regulations; likely involves a private letter ruling
– Precedent models include portions of: Susser/Sunoco LP, Global Partners, Delek Logistics
– Precedent models include portions of: Susser/Sunoco LP, CrossAmerica Partners
31
Strategic Actions to Enhance Shareholder Value
32
Significant Value to MPLX 1 2
The combination of dropdowns and GP/IDR buy-in is anticipated to lower MPLX’s cost of capital going forward
– Dropdowns enhance distribution growth
– GP/IDR buy-in removes IDR burden and lowers equity cost of capital
The strategic actions are projected to provide DCF accretion and allow MPLX to achieve its double-digit distribution growth targets with near-term DCF coverage expected to be above 1.1x
– MPLX will have the ability to further increase distributions if market conditions support such actions
The strategic actions will simplify the MPLX structure and fully align incentives with MPC
– MPC will own the general partner and a majority of MPLX LP units, completely aligning interests towards continuing MPLX distribution growth and managing MPLX to be competitive and attractively valued
Addition of ~$1.4 B of EBITDA adds substantial stable cash flow to MPLX and greater visibility to distribution growth
Consistent with Its Demonstrated Track Record, MPC Continues Its Focus on Long-Term Value Creation MPC and its Board of Directors continually analyze opportunities to enhance value and are confident that the MPC plan is the right course
Proven Commitment to
Enhancing Shareholder Value
– 2011 spinoff from Marathon Oil – Creation of MPLX – Tripled stable cash flow(1)
– Over $10 B returned to shareholders – 179% Total Shareholder Return since 2011(2)
MPC’s Strategic Plan Will Continue
to Deliver Shareholder Value
– Significantly accelerated dropdowns: MPC expects to dropdown assets generating ~$1.4 B of EBITDA to MPLX as soon as practicable (expected in 2017) subject to regulatory clearances, including tax
– Completed initial evaluation of strategic alternatives for general partner (GP) interests in MPLX: MPC expects to pursue an exchange of its economic interests in the GP (GP interests and IDRs) for MPLX LP units in conjunction with completion of dropdowns, with details of transaction to be announced following receipt of requisite approvals and tax clearance for all dropdowns (expected in 2017)
– MPC’s Board will conduct a full and thorough review of Speedway, including a tax-free separation and other strategic and financial alternatives. Review to be led by a special committee of the Board with the assistance of an independent financial advisor. Update on review expected to be provided by mid-2017
MPC and MPLX Interests are
Aligned
– Increased and substantial MPLX LP holdings by MPC – greater than 50% pro forma for dropdowns and GP/IDR buy-in – Growing stable cash flows through continued investment in midstream infrastructure, driven by a steady stream of MPLX
organic capex of $1.4 B - $1.7 B in 2017 – Increasing distributions to MPLX LP unit holders with forecasted growth of 12% - 15% in 2017 and double-digit growth in
2018 driven by organic growth capital and MPC dropdowns – Optimizing MPLX’s cost of capital enhances the partnership’s organic and M&A opportunities
(1)Based on 3Q 2016 LTM EBITDA as compared to 2011 EBITDA (2)FACTSET as of December 30, 2016
33
Refining and Marketing - Market Data Update
34
Effective March 1, 2017
RIN/CBOB crack adjustment included in R&M Gross Margin Indicator – Previously part of Other Gross Margin – Adjusts the LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spread to an ex-RIN basis – Adjusts the LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spread to an 84 octane CBOB basis (i.e., the product
produced and blended with ethanol)
Other Gross Margin now categorized into crude, products and volumetric gain Report enhancements
– Hypothetical gross margin indicator calculated based on guidance – Historical data shown in new format including other gross margin breakout between
crude, products and volumetric gain
Note: The information presented in MPC’s Market Data is for informational purposes only. This information is not intended to be an indicator of MPC’s past or future financial results. Some of the information is compiled from sources outside MPC. MPC does not make any representation as to the accuracy of the data and does not undertake any obligation to update, revise or continue to provide the data. MPC, its information providers, and other third parties involved in or related to the making or compiling of any of the information listed above make no representations or warranties of any kind, either express or implied, with respect to the information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof) and expressly disclaim all warranties and representations as to the information or use thereof.
1,230
1,900
(651)
581 36 (4)
87
621
(1,319) (362)
219 0
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
*LLS6-3-2-1Crack
*RIN/CBOBAdjustment
*Sweet/Sour Diff.
*LLS/WTIDiff.
*LLSPrompt vs.Delivered
*MarketStructure
OtherGrossMargin
R&MGrossMargin
DirectOperating
Costs
Other R&MSegmentIncome
$MM
Market Data Update
35
Refining and Marketing Indicative Gross Margin Reporting
*Based on 4Q 2016 market indicators using actual volumes
Crude (278) Product 759 Volumetric 140
1,230
1,900 581 36 (4)
87 (30)
(1,319) (362)
219 0
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
*LLS6-3-2-1Crack
*Sweet/Sour Diff.
*LLS/WTIDiff.
*LLSPrompt vs.Delivered
*MarketStructure
OtherGrossMargin
R&MGrossMargin
DirectOperating
Costs
Other R&MSegmentIncome
$MM
Refining and Marketing - Other Gross Margin
36
Crude, Product and Volumetric Gain Examples*
Crude – Actual crude and other feedstocks versus the seven crudes included in market data – Hedging gains and losses – Crude transportation to refinery, historically ~$2 per barrel of crude throughput
Products – Product realizations versus spot market metric price – Variances due to actual yield versus 6-3-2-1 proxy – Variances due to actual distribution versus 60% USGC and 40% Chicago proxy – Variance due to actual sales volumes versus throughput volumes
Volumetric gain – Volume gain inherent in refining process – Volume varies based on units in turnaround and capital improvements – Historically ~1.5% – 2.0% of total throughput – Value varies with refined product prices
*illustrative subset of items included in crude, products and volumetric gain
Other Components of R&M Segment Income
37
Direct Operating Costs – Guidance provided at earnings call for upcoming quarter – Comprised of three expense classes
• Major maintenance and turnaround • Depreciation and amortization • Other Manufacturing
Other – Guidance not provided – Includes terminaling and transportation costs from refinery gate forward and associated marketing
and supply, distribution and planning expenses – Equity method income for ethanol and biofuel investments
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Market Data - Current Quarter Price information through 12/31/20161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(1) - (6) (6) + (8) (1) - (9) (6) + (11) (1) - (12)2016 LLS Prompt Chicago USGC Blended RIN/CBOB Crack WTI Prompt LLS Prompt vs. LLS Delivered LLS Delivered LLS Prompt vs. Sour Delivered Sour Delivered LLS Prompt Market Structure
Price (a) 6-3-2-1 Crack (b) 6-3-2-1 Crack (b) 6-3-2-1 Crack (c) Adjustment (d) Price (a) WTI Prompt Diff. (e) Cost (g) LLS Delivered Diff. (f) Cost (g) Sweet/Sour Diff. (h)Oct 51.35 6.56 8.03 7.44 (3.79) 49.94 1.41 1.65 51.59 (0.24) (5.01) 44.93 6.42 (0.84) Nov 46.72 5.08 6.91 6.18 (3.83) 45.76 0.95 1.50 47.26 (0.54) (4.92) 40.85 5.87 (0.66) Dec 53.53 7.25 9.30 8.48 (4.10) 52.17 1.36 1.12 53.29 0.24 (4.87) 47.29 6.23 (0.84) 4th Qtr 50.59 6.32 8.10 7.39 (3.91) 49.29 1.30 1.42 50.71 (0.12) (4.93) 44.36 6.24 (0.78)
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)Crude Non-Crude Total LLS 6-3-2-1 RIN/CBOB Sweet/Sour LLS Prompt LLS Prompt Market Gross Margin Crude Other Charge/ Sour Crude Oil WTI- Priced Crude
Throughput Throughput Throughput Crack Spread Crack Adjustment Differential vs WTI Prompt vs Delivered Structure Indicator Throughput Feedstocks Throughput Oil Throughput(mmbbls) (mmbbls) (mmbbls) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) (MBD) (MBD) Percentage Percentage
(K) x Days in Qtr (L) x Days in Qtr (A) + (B) (C) x Col 4 (C) x Col 5 (A) x Col 13 x (M) (A) x Col 7 x (N) (A) x Col 10 x [1-(M)-(N)] (A) x Col 14 x 65% Sum of (D) thru (I)
4Q16 Est. 154 14 168 1,240 (656) 557 50 (3) 78 1,266 1,675 150 58% 25%
(a) Prompt Price represents calendar workday average of prices quoted that month for crude delivered in immediately following month(s). All prices and differentials listed are in Dollars per Barrel(b) Crack Spread Calculation: Chicago = ((Chicago 87 Octane Gasoline x 3 + Chicago Ultra Low Sulfur Distillate x 2+ USGC 3% Residual Fuel Oil)/6) - LLS Prompt Price Data Sources: NYMEX, Argus, and MPC Estimate
USGC = ((U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) 87 Octane Gasoline x 3 + USGC Ultra Low Sulfur Distillate x 2+ USGC 3% Residual Fuel Oil)/6) - LLS Prompt Price(c) Blended Chicago/USGC crack spread was 38%/62% for 2015, and is 40%/60% in 2016 based on MPC's refining capacity by PADD in each period.(d) Represents the market cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs)(credits needed to meet an EPA-specific Renewable Volume Obligation) for attributable products and the difference between 87 Octane Gasoline and 84 Octane CBOB Gasoline.(e) Represents differential (versus Prompt WTI) for the trade month period beginning with the 26th calendar day two months prior to the prompt month through the 25th day one month prior to the prompt month (see next page for Prompt LLS versus LLS Delivered Cost calculation).(f) Delivered differentials per footnote (e), with the exception of the Maya delivered differential which is calculated on a prompt calendar month basis. MPC's typical sour crude oil basket consists of the following crudes: Arab Light, Kuwait, Maya, Western Canadian Select, Mars. (g) Delivered Cost is based on WTI Prompt Price plus each respective grade's delivered differential and does NOT include market structure or other expenses such as transportation, demurrage, etc. Market structure effects are calculated as a separate adjustment (see column 14 and (I) above).(h) Delivered month market structure (roll). Negative values represent contango and positive values represent backwardation. For 2017 approximately 65% of MPC's crude oil acquisition volume uses market structure in its acquisition price formula.
Hypothetical Gross Margin Indicator Calculation Based on Guidance Provided Outlook
Revised Market Data Sheet – Current Quarter
38
RIN/CBOB CrackAdjustment (d)
(3.79) (3.83) (4.10) (3.91)
Hypothetical Gross Margin Indicator Calculation Based on Guidance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Market Data - Historical Price information through 12/31/20161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(1) - (6) (6) + (8) (1) - (9) (6) + (11) (1) - (12)2016 LLS Prompt Chicago USGC Blended RIN/CBOB Crack WTI Prompt LLS Prompt vs. LLS Delivered LLS Delivered LLS Prompt vs. Sour Delivered Sour Delivered LLS Prompt Market Structure
Price (a) 6-3-2-1 Crack (b) 6-3-2-1 Crack (b) 6-3-2-1 Crack (c) Adjustment (d) Price (a) WTI Prompt Diff. (e) Cost (g) LLS Delivered Diff. (f) Cost (g) Sweet/Sour Diff. (h)Jan 32.83 2.91 5.16 4.26 (2.80) 31.78 1.05 1.69 33.47 (0.64) (4.98) 26.80 6.03 (1.81) Feb 32.37 2.72 4.56 3.82 (3.23) 30.62 1.75 1.30 31.92 0.45 (4.84) 25.78 6.59 (1.35) Mar 40.06 6.42 5.17 5.67 (2.97) 37.96 2.10 1.80 39.76 0.30 (5.46) 32.50 7.56 (2.33) 1st Qtr 35.29 4.11 4.97 4.62 (3.00) 33.63 1.66 1.60 35.23 0.06 (5.11) 28.52 6.77 (1.84) Apr 42.69 8.58 6.45 7.30 (3.09) 41.12 1.57 2.40 43.52 (0.83) (5.00) 36.12 6.57 (2.08) May 48.69 9.32 5.92 7.28 (3.03) 46.80 1.89 1.70 48.50 0.19 (5.94) 40.86 7.83 (1.52) Jun 50.60 10.47 6.94 8.35 (3.75) 48.85 1.75 2.01 50.86 (0.26) (4.61) 44.24 6.36 (0.87) 2nd Qtr 47.38 9.47 6.44 7.66 (3.30) 45.64 1.74 2.04 47.68 (0.30) (5.17) 40.47 6.91 (1.49) Jul 46.42 6.15 6.20 6.18 (4.03) 44.80 1.62 1.84 46.64 (0.22) (4.55) 40.25 6.17 (0.70) Aug 46.33 10.33 8.58 9.28 (3.67) 44.80 1.53 1.76 46.56 (0.23) (4.65) 40.15 6.18 (0.89) Sep 46.83 9.35 8.04 8.57 (3.65) 45.23 1.60 1.59 46.81 0.01 (4.89) 40.34 6.49 (0.98) 3rd Qtr 46.52 8.70 7.66 8.08 (3.78) 44.94 1.58 1.73 46.67 (0.15) (4.70) 40.24 6.28 (0.86) Oct 51.35 6.56 8.03 7.44 (3.79) 49.94 1.41 1.65 51.59 (0.24) (5.01) 44.93 6.42 (0.84) Nov 46.72 5.08 6.91 6.18 (3.83) 45.76 0.95 1.50 47.26 (0.54) (4.92) 40.85 5.87 (0.66) Dec 53.53 7.25 9.30 8.48 (4.10) 52.17 1.36 1.12 53.29 0.24 (4.87) 47.29 6.23 (0.84) 4th Qtr 50.59 6.32 8.10 7.39 (3.91) 49.29 1.30 1.42 50.71 (0.12) (4.93) 44.36 6.24 (0.78) YTD 45.01 7.19 6.80 6.96 (3.50) 43.47 1.55 1.70 45.17 (0.15) (4.98) 38.49 6.52 (1.24)
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)Crude Non-Crude Total LLS 6-3-2-1 RIN/CBOB Sweet/Sour LLS Prompt LLS Prompt Market Gross Margin Reported Reported vs. Sour Crude Oil WTI- Priced Crude
Throughput Throughput Throughput Crack Spread Crack Adjustment Differential vs WTI Prompt vs Delivered Structure Indicator Gross Margin* Indicator Throughput Oil Throughput(mmbbls) (mmbbls) (mmbbls) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) Other Gross Margin Percentage Percentage
(A) + (B) (C) x Col 4 (C) x Col 5 (A) x Col 13 x (M) (A) x Col 7 x (N) (A) x Col 10 x [1-(M)-(N)] (A) x Col 14 x 75% Sum of (D) thru (I) ($MM) (K) - (J)(Detail Below)
1Q15 150 16 167 1,615 (439) 596 126 58 82 2,038 2,691 653 56% 20%2Q15 163 15 178 1,819 (453) 438 158 (54) 255 2,163 2,635 472 55% 19%3Q15 160 15 176 2,142 (423) 527 122 (6) 76 2,438 3,037 599 56% 20%4Q15 151 18 169 1,124 (336) 534 40 (30) 112 1,444 2,148 704 55% 20%1Q16 146 16 161 747 (485) 604 44 2 199 1,111 1,611 500 61% 18%2Q16 157 15 172 1,316 (567) 665 58 (8) 177 1,641 2,204 563 61% 21%3Q16 165 12 177 1,431 (669) 607 52 (5) 108 1,524 1,906 382 59% 20%4Q16 154 13 167 1,230 (651) 581 36 (4) 87 1,279 1,900 621 61% 18%
Reported vs. Crude Related Product Related Volumetric GainsIndicator ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
($MM)
1Q15 653 (303) 813 143 2Q15 472 (371) 640 203 3Q15 599 (391) 798 192 4Q15 704 (266) 822 148 1Q16 500 (493) 864 129 2Q16 563 (320) 697 186 3Q16 382 (403) 624 161 4Q16 621 (278) 759 140
Gross Margin Indicator Calculation Based on Actuals
Reported vs. Indicator Variance Explanation | Other Gross Margin
Historical Data Tab
39
RIN/CBOB CrackAdjustment (d)
(2.80) (3.23) (2.97) (3.00) (3.09) (3.03) (3.75) (3.30) (4.03) (3.67) (3.65) (3.78) (3.79) (3.83) (4.10) (3.91) (3.50) Reported vs. Crude Related Product Related Volumetric Gains
Indicator ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)($MM)
1Q15 653 (303) 813 143 2Q15 472 (371) 640 203 3Q15 599 (391) 798 192 4Q15 704 (266) 822 148 1Q16 500 (493) 864 129 2Q16 563 (320) 697 186 3Q16 382 (403) 624 161 4Q16 621 (278) 759 140
Reported vs. Indicator Variance Explanation | Other Gross Margin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MM
BD
Distillate Leading World Liquids Demand
Average product demand growth of 1.6 MMBD in 2016-2017
Distillate remains the growth leader through 2025
Heavy fuel oil continues its structural decline
40
Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (Actual), MPC Economics (Forecast)
Middle Distillate
Gasoline
Resid
Other
Average Annual Volumetric
Growth (MBD) 2015 vs. 2025
+445
-19
+623
+157
Forecast Actual
Distillate Leads U.S. Domestic Petroleum Fuels Demand
41
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MM
BD
Compounded Annual
Growth Rates 2015 vs. 2030
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), MPC
Gasoline
Gasoline ex ethanol
Distillate
Jet Fuel
Resid
-1.1% -1.1%
+1.4%
+0.5%
-2.8%
Forecast Actual Gasoline demand
declines due to corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards despite increased travel
Region 2015
Utilization Rate
North America 88%
MPC 99%
Europe 86%
Former Soviet Union 82%
Asia 81%
Middle East 79%
Latin America 74%
Africa 71%
U.S. Refiners Have Sustained Export Advantages
42
Lower-cost natural gas Large, complex refineries Access to lower-cost feedstocks High-utilization rates Sophisticated workforce
*Average import border price 02468
1012141618
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
$/M
MB
tu
Natural Gas Price Comparison
Japanese Liquefied Natural Gas (World Bank)*European Natural Gas (World Bank)*HH Spot Price (World Bank)
Forecast Actual
Sources: World Bank, IEA, PIRA
ENERGY STAR Program
ENERGY STAR labels for refining industry began in 2006
47 labels awarded during 11 labeling years
9 labels to Phillips 66/ConocoPhillips
1 label to ExxonMobil
1 label to former MPC site in St. Paul Park, Minnesota
Remaining 36 labels to MPC refineries 43
43
Operating Year ---> 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPA Certification Year ---> 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canton 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Detroit 1 1 1 1 1 1
Garyville 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Robinson 1 1 1
Texas City 1 1 1 1 1
Conoco Phillips, Billings 1 1 1
Conoco Phillips, Lake Charles 1
Former Marathon, St Paul Park 1
Exxon/Mobil, Baton Rouge 1
Conoco Phillips, Bayway 1
Phillips 66 Company, Bayway 1
Phillips 66 Company, Ferndale 1 1 1
EPA ENERGY STAR History as of 6-15-16
Source: EPA ENERGY STAR Website
Balance in Refining Network
Midwest Capacity 729,000 BPCD
Louisiana Capacity 543,000 BPCD
Texas Capacity 545,000 BPCD
44
*Weighted Average NCI
The Nelson Complexity Index is a construction cost-based measurement used to describe the investment cost of a refinery in terms of the process operations being conducted. It is basically the ratio of the process investment downstream of the crude unit to the investment of the crude unit itself. This index has many limitations as an indicator of value and is not necessarily a useful tool in predicting profitability. There is no consideration for operating, maintenance or energy efficiencies and no consideration of non-process assets such as tanks, docks, etc. Likewise it does not consider the ability to take advantage of market related feedstock opportunities. Source: MPC data as reported in the Oil & Gas Journal effective Dec. 31, 2016
BPCD NCI
Canton (Ohio) 93,000 7.8
Catlettsburg (Ky.) 273,000 9.3
Detroit (Mich.) 132,000 9.9
Robinson (Ill.) 231,000 9.8
Galveston Bay (Texas) 459,000 13.0
Texas City (Texas) 86,000 7.8
Garyville (La.) 543,000 11.2
Total 1,817,000 10.7*
Key Strengths
45
Balanced Operations
40% 60%
Crude Oil Refining Capacity
PADD IIPADD III
61%
39%
Crude Slate
Sour CrudeSweet Crude
As of December 31, 2016 4Q 2016
~70% ~30% Assured Sales
Wholesale andOther Sales
Assured Sales of Gasoline Production (Speedway + Brand + Wholesale Contract Sales)
4Q 2016
Galveston Bay-Texas City World-Class Refining Complex
46
*MPC estimates post-STAR program completion in 2021
Galveston Bay and Texas City refineries consolidating operations in mid-2017
Galveston Bay-Texas City BPCD*
Crude 585,000
Resid Processing 142,100
Catalytic Cracking/Hydrocracking 258,400
Alkylation 52,800
Aromatics 33,800
Speedway – Top-tier Performer
47
- 25 50 75
100
Sunoco Speedway Casey's CST Couche-Tard MurphyUSA
WesternRefining
Alon USA
Total Margin*
Light Product Merchandise
-
10
20
30
Speedway Murphy USA Casey's Couche-Tard Sunoco CST Alon USA Western Refining
EBITDA*
Sources: 2015/2016 Company Reports, excludes asset gains/losses *Represents 3Q 2016 LTM information
Speedway Light Product Speedway Merchandise
$M/s
tore
/mon
th
Generates predictable, stable cash flows #1 in EBITDA/store/month vs. public peers
Speedway Strong and Consistent Growth
48
3,027 3,146 3,942
6,038 6,094
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MM
Gal
lons
Gasoline and Distillate Sales Volume
13.18 14.41 17.75 18.23
16.56
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
¢/G
allo
n
Gasoline and Distillate Gross Margin(a)
795 825 975 1,368 1,435
3,058 3,135 3,611
4,879 5,007
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent $M
M
Merchandise Sales/Gross Margin
Merchandise Sales $
Merchandise Gross Margin $
Merchandise Gross Margin Percent
(a)The price paid by consumers less the cost of refined products, including transportation, consumer excise taxes and bankcard processing fees, divided by gasoline and distillate sales volume. Excludes LCM inventory valuation adjustments.
Following Through on Goals for Acquired Locations
Invest ~$570 MM in conversions, remodels and maintenance
Converted stores to Speedway brand and technology platforms
Remodel approximately 700 locations to drive marketing enhancements
Generate $365 MM of annual EBITDA in 2017
Achieve $190 MM in annual synergies in 2017
49
20 30 35 10 20 40 45 45
45 25
70
0
50
100
150
200
2014E** 2015E 2016E 2017E
$MM
Synergies and Marketing Enhancements (Original Guidance)
WilcoHess Synergies Operating and G&A Expense SynergiesLight Product Supply and Logistics Marketing Enhancements
175
365 35 40
45 70
0
100
200
300
400
2013Pro Forma Hess
EBITDA*
Form 10WilcoHessSynergies
Operating andG&A Expense
Synergies
Light ProductSupply and
Logistics
MarketingEnhancements
2017E HessEBITDA
$MM
Earnings Opportunities (Original Guidance)
**Based on Oct. 1, 2014 closing
Sources: Company reports, MPC internal estimates *Sept. 30, 2013 Form 10 Pro Forma annualized
190
20
75
120
Focus on Improving Light Product Breakeven
Measure of operating efficiency and merchandise contribution to total expense
Potential to drive substantial value in the business over time
7.13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2013
Ligh
t Pro
duct
Bre
akev
en (c
pg)
2.56
12.39 Each 1.00 cent per
gallon improvement = ~$30 MM annual pretax earnings
Speedway Hess Sept. 30, 2013 Form 10 Estimate
LPBE = Total Expenses –
Merchandise Margin Light Product
Volume
50
Speedway and Hess Side-by-Side Comparison
Speedway generates an incremental $17,300 of merchandise margin per store per month
~$250 MM of additional annual merchandise margin potential across Hess retail
Hess(a) Speedway(b)
Company-operated Sites 1,255 1,478
Fuel Sales (gallons/store/month) 198,500 177,400
Fuel Margin ($/gallon) $0.137 $0.144
Merchandise Sales ($/store/month) $111,000 $176,800
Merchandise Margin ($/store/month) $29,200 $46,500
(a)2013 Pro-Forma data provided in Hess Retail Corporation Form 10 SEC filing (b)2013 data provided in Marathon Petroleum Corporation 10K SEC filing
51
About MPLX
Growth-oriented, diversified MLP with high-quality, strategically located assets with leading midstream position
Two primary businesses – Logistics & Storage includes transportation and storage
of crude oil, refined products and other hydrocarbon-based products
– Gathering & Processing includes gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and the gathering, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing of NGLs
Investment grade credit profile with strong financial flexibility
MPC as sponsor has interests aligned with MPLX – MPLX assets are integral to MPC – Growing stable cash flows through continued investment in
midstream infrastructure
52
As of December 31, 2016 See appendix for legend
2% GP interest
MPLX and MPC are Aligned
MPC views MPLX as integral to its operations and is aligned with its success and incentivized to grow MPLX
MPC owns 23.5% LP interest and 100% of MPLX’s GP interest and IDRs
100% interest
r
100% interest Public Preferred Common
Class B
74.5% LP interest
100% interest
MPLX GP LLC (our General Partner)
23.5% LP interest
MPLX LP* (NYSE: MPLX)
(the “Partnership”)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Affiliates
(NYSE: MPC)
MPLX Organizational Structure
53
As of December 31, 2016 * All Class B units are owned by M&R MWE Liberty, LLC and included with the public ownership percentage and depicted on an as-converted basis.
MPLX Terminal and Storage LLC
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P.
100% interest
MarkWest Hydrocarbon, L.L.C.
MarkWest Operating Subsidiaries
MPLX Operations LLC
Hardin Street Marine LLC
MPLX Pipe Line Holdings LLC
MPLX’s Forecast
12-15% distribution growth in 2017; double-digit distribution growth in 2018 Forecast, excluding acquisitions and dropdowns:
54
Financial Measure 2017 Forecast
Net Income $500 MM - $650 MM
Adjusted EBITDA(a) $1.5 B - $1.65 B
Net cash provided by operating activities $1.25 B - $1.4 B
Distributable Cash Flow (DCF)(a) $1.15 B - $1.3 B
Organic Growth Capital Expenditures(b) $1.4 B - $1.7 B
Distribution Growth Rate 12% - 15%
(a)Non-GAAP measure calculated before the distribution to preferred units. See reconciliation in appendix. (b)Guidance excludes expenditures incurred related to acquisitions and non-affiliated JV members’ share of capital expenditures
MPLX Organic Growth Capital Investments
55
2017 forecast $1.4 B - $1.7 B
(a)Utica Rich-Gas Gathering is a joint venture between MarkWest Utica EMG’s and Summit Midstream LLC. Dry-Gas Gathering in the Utica Shale is completed through a joint venture with MarkWest and EMG. (b)MarkWest and MarkWest Utica EMG shared fractionation capacity (c)Replacement of existing Houston 35 MMcf/d plant (d)MarkWest Utica EMG Joint Venture (e)MarkWest Antero Midstream Joint Venture
Gathering & Processing Projects Shale Resource Capacity Est. Completion Date
Rich- & Dry-Gas Gathering(a) Marcellus & Utica N/A Ongoing
Western OK - STACK Rich-Gas & Oil Gathering Cana Woodford N/A Ongoing
Hopedale III C3+ Fractionation & NGL logistics(b) Marcellus & Utica 60,000 Bbl/d Completed
Sherwood VII Processing Plant(e) Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 1Q17
Keystone C2 Fractionation Marcellus 20,000 Bbl/d 3Q17
Sherwood VIII Processing Plant(e) Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 3Q17
Majorsville II C2 Fractionation Marcellus 40,000 Bbl/d 4Q17
NGL Pipeline Expansions Marcellus N/A 2017 and 2018
Houston 1 Processing Plant(c) Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 1Q18
Sherwood IX Processing Plant(e) Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 1Q18
Majorsville VII Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 2018
Harmon Creek Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 2018
Harmon Creek C2 Fractionation Marcellus 20,000 Bbl/d 2018
Cadiz IV Processing Plant(d) Utica 200 MMcf/d 2018
Logistics & Storage Projects Est.
Completion Date
Utica Infrastructure Build-out Mid-2017
Robinson Butane Cavern 2018
Texas City Tank Farm 2018
Executing a Comprehensive Utica Strategy Phased infrastructure investment
56
Cornerstone Pipeline commenced operations on time and under budget
Hopedale pipeline connection completed December 2016
Utica build-out mid-2017 estimated completion
– Links Marcellus and Utica condensate and natural gasoline with Midwest refiners
– Allows diluent movements to Canada
– Leverages existing MPC/MPLX pipelines and right of way
– Budgeted investments ~$255 MM
• ~$40 MM annual EBITDA
MPLX - Attractive Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital Logistics & Storage Segment
Utica Infrastructure Build-out Industry solution for Marcellus and Utica liquids Mid-2017 estimated completion Texas City Tank Farm MPC and third-party logistics solutions 2018 estimated completion Robinson Butane Cavern MPC shifting third-party services to MPLX and
optimizing Robinson butane handling 2018 estimated completion Other projects in development
57
74%
20%
6%
MPC Commited MPC Additional Third Party
MPLX - Logistics & Storage Contract Structure
Fee-based assets with minimal commodity exposure(c)
MPC has historically accounted for – over 85% of the volumes shipped on MPLX’s
crude and product pipelines – 100% of the volumes transported via MPLX’s
inland marine vessels MPC has entered into multiple
long-term transportation and storage agreements with MPLX
– Terms of up to 10 years, beginning in 2012 – Pipeline tariffs linked to FERC-based rates – Indexed storage fees – Fee-for-capacity inland marine business
58
2016 Revenue – Customer Mix
MPC = 94%
$633 MM
$171 MM
$51 MM
(a,b)
Notes: (a)Includes revenues generated under Transportation and Storage agreements with MPC (excludes marine agreements) (b)Volumes shipped under joint tariff agreements are accounted for as third party for GAAP purposes, but represent MPC barrels shipped (c)Commodity exposure only to the extent of volume gains and losses
MPLX Gathering & Processing
59
One of the largest NGL and natural gas midstream service providers – Gathering capacity of 5.4 Bcf/d
• ~50% Marcellus/Utica; ~50% Southwest
– Processing capacity of 7.6 Bcf/d* • ~70% Marcellus/Utica; ~20% Southwest
– C2 + Fractionation capacity of 550 MBPD** • ~90% Marcellus/Utica
Primarily fee-based business with highly diverse customer base and established long-term contracts
Raw Natural Gas Production
Processing Plants
Mixed NGLs
Fractionation Facilities
NGL Products
• Ethane • Propane • Normal Butane • Isobutane • Natural Gasoline
Gathering and
Compression
*Includes processing capacity of non-operated joint venture **Includes condensate stabilization capacity
MPLX Northeast Operations Well-Positioned in Ethane Market
Ethane demand growing as exports and steam cracker development continues in Gulf Coast and Northeast
MPLX well-positioned to support producer customers’ rich-gas development with extensive distributed de-ethanization system
Based on current utilization, MPLX can support the production of an additional ~60 MBPD of purity ethane with existing assets
Opportunity to invest $500 MM to $1 B to support Northeast ethane recovery over the next five years
60
West Virginia
Pennsylvania Ohio
Sherwood
Mobley
Majorsville
Cadiz Houston
Keystone
Harmon Creek
Seneca
MPLX De-ethanization Facility
MPLX Processing Complex
MPLX Planned De-ethanization Facility
Steam Cracker Planned
Steam Cracker Proposed
MPLX Ethane Pipeline
ATEX Pipeline
Mariner West Pipeline
Mariner East 1 Pipeline
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Contract Structure
61
Durable long-term partnerships across leading basins
Marcellus Utica Southwest Resource Play
Marcellus, Upper Devonian
Utica Haynesville, Cotton Valley, Woodford, Anadarko Basin, Granite Wash, Cana-Woodford, Permian, Eagle Ford
Producers 14 – including Range, Antero, EQT, CNX, Noble, Southwestern, Rex and others
7 – including Antero, Gulfport, Ascent, Rice, PDC and others
140 – including Newfield, Devon, BP, Chevron, PetroQuest and others
Contract Structure Long-term agreements initially 10-15 years, which contain renewal provisions
Long-term agreements initially 10-15 years, which contain renewal provisions
Long-term agreements initially 10-15 years, which contain renewal provisions
Volume Protection (MVCs)
65% of 2017 capacity contains minimum volume commitments
25% of 2017 capacity contains minimum volume commitments
15% of 2017 capacity contains minimum volume commitments
Area Dedications 4.3 MM acres 3.9 MM acres 1.4 MM acres
Inflation Protection Yes Yes Yes
MPLX - Gathering & Processing
62
Marcellus & Utica Operations
0 2.9Bcf/d Gathering capacity
5.5Bcf/d Processing capacity
471MBPD C2+ Fractionation capacity
25MBPD Cond. Stabilization capacity
Houston Complex Sherwood Complex Hopedale Complex
MPLX - Gathering & Processing
63
Marcellus & Utica Operations
2016: Processed volumes increased
~14% over full-year 2015 Gathered volumes increased
~20% over full-year 2015
2017: Processed volumes expected to
increase ~10% to ~15% over 2016 Gathered volumes expected to
increase ~3% to ~6% over 2016
(a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance
Processed Volumes
Area Available Capacity
(MMcf/d)(a)
Average Volume
(MMcf/d)
Utilization (%)
Marcellus 4,155 3,341 80% Houston 555 456 82%
Majorsville 1,070 758 71%
Mobley 920 721 78%
Sherwood 1,200 1,138 95%
Keystone 410 268 65%
Utica 1,325 1,084 82% Cadiz 525 517 98%
Seneca 800 567 71%
4Q 2016 Total 5,480 4,425 81% 3Q 2016 Total 5,480 4,323 79%
MPLX - Gathering & Processing
64
Marcellus & Utica Fractionation
2016 fractionated volumes increased ~29% over full-year 2015
2017 fractionated volumes expected to increase ~15% to ~20% over 2016
Commenced third fractionation train at Hopedale Complex, increasing total propane-plus capacity to 180 MBPD
Fractionated Volumes
Area Available Capacity
(MBPD)(a)(b)
Average Volume (MBPD)
Utilization (%)
4Q16 Total C3+ 227 187 82%
4Q16 Total C2 184 127 69%
3Q16 Total C3+ 227 189 84%
3Q16 Total C2 190 126 66% (a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance (b)Excludes Cibus Ranch condensate facility
MPLX - Gathering & Processing
65
Southwest Operations
0 Gathering capacity
1.5Bcf/d* Processing capacity
29MBPD C2+ Fractionation capacity
2.6Bcf/d
Javelina Complex Carthage Complex Buffalo Creek Complex
Transmission capacity 1.4Bcf/d
*Includes 40% of processing capacity through the Partnership’s Centrahoma Joint Venture
Hidalgo Complex
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Southwest Operations
2016: Processed volumes increased
~14% over full-year 2015 Gathered volumes increased
~1% over full-year 2015
2017: Processed volumes expected to
increase ~3% to ~8% over 2016 – West Texas (Delaware Basin) and
Western Oklahoma (STACK) to support majority of increase
Gathered volumes expected to be flat over 2016
(a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance (b)West Texas is comprised of the Hidalgo plant in the Delaware Basin (c)Processing capacity includes Partnership’s portion of Centrahoma JV and excludes volumes sent to third parties
Processed Volumes
Area Available Capacity
(MMcf/d)(a)
Average Volume
(MMcf/d)
Utilization (%)
West Texas(b) 200 179 90%
East Texas 600 455 76%
Western OK 425 342 81%
Southeast OK(c) 120 120 100%
Gulf Coast 142 104 73%
4Q 2016 Total 1,487 1,200 81%
3Q 2016 Total 1,487 1,253 84%
66
MPLX - Strong Financial Flexibility to Manage and Grow Asset Base
67
Committed to maintaining investment grade credit profile
Completed a $1 B private placement of convertible preferred securities with third-party investors in 2Q 2016
Completed ~$780 MM of opportunistic ATM issuances in 2016
$2.25 B senior notes issued 1Q 2017
($MM except ratio data) As of 12/31/16
Cash and cash equivalents 234
Total assets 16,646
Total debt 4,423
Redeemable preferred units 1,000
Total equity 10,319
Consolidated total debt to LTM pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio(a) 3.4x
Remaining capacity available under $2.0 B revolving credit agreement 1,997
Remaining capacity available under $500 MM credit agreement with MPC 500
(a)Calculated using face value total debt and last twelve month adjusted EBITDA, which is pro forma for acquisitions and includes NCI. Face value total debt includes approximately $435 MM of unamortized discount and debt issuance costs as of December 31, 2016.
MPLX’s Commodity Price Sensitivities
92% fee-based net operating margin, 8% commodity exposure for 2017 Maintain active hedging program with ~35% of our 2017 commodity exposure
currently hedged Annual 2017 sensitivities to commodity price changes (assumes no hedges):
68
NOTE: Net operating margin is calculated as segment revenue less segment purchased product costs less realized derivative gains (losses). (a)The composition is based on MPLX’s average projected barrel of approximately: Ethane: 35%, Propane: 35%, Iso-Butane: 6%, Normal Butane: 12%, Natural Gasoline: 12%.
Product Commodity Price Change Annual DCF Impact
Natural Gas Liquids (Mont Belvieu) $.05 per weighted average gallon(a) ~$18 MM
Crude Oil (WTI) $1 per BBL ~$1 MM
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $.50 per MMbtu <$1 MM
MPLX’s 2017 Forecast - Reconciliation
69
($MM) Low High Net income 500 650 Depreciation and amortization 595 595 Net interest and other financial costs 265 265 Adjustment for equity investment earnings & distributions 90 90 Unrealized derivative losses(a) 13 13 Other 40 40 Adjusted EBITDA 1,503 1,653 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests (3) (3) Adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX LP 1,500 1,650 Deferred revenue impacts 5 5 Net interest and other financial costs (220) (220) Maintenance capital expenditures (100) (100) Other (35) (35) Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX LP 1,150 1,300 Preferred unit distributions (65) (65) Distributable cash flow available to GP and LP unitholders 1,085 1,235
(a)The Partnership makes a distinction between realized or unrealized gains and losses on derivatives. During the period when a derivative contract is outstanding, we record changes in the fair value of the derivative as an unrealized gain or loss. When a derivative contract matures or is settled, we reverse the previously recorded unrealized gain or loss and record the realized gain or loss of the contract.
Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow from Net Income
Reconciliations - Speedway
70
*Based on Hess Sept. 30, 2013 Form 10 data annualized **Based on original announcement guidance in May 2014
EBITDA to Net Income for Acquired Locations ($MM) 2013* 2017E**
Net Income 47 138 Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (12) - Plus: Provision for income taxes 22 78 Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 94 149 Acquired Locations EBITDA 175 365
Speedway Segment EBITDA to Segment Income from Operations ($MM) 2016
Speedway Segment Income from Operations 734 Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 273 Speedway Segment EBITDA 1,007
Reconciliation
71
Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income Attributable to MPC
($MM) 2016 LTM
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Net Income attributable to MPC 1 801 145 227 1,174
Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (142) (137) (141) (136) (556)
Add: Net income (loss) attributable to inco noncontrolling interests (79) (18) 74 62 39
Provision for income taxes 11 395 75 128 609
Depreciation and amortization 490 500 507 504 2,001
Impairment expense 129 90 267 - 486
Inventory market valuation adjustment 15 (385) - - (370)
Adjusted EBITDA 709 1,520 1,209 1,057 4,495
Less: Adjusted EBITDA related to MPLX 1,272
Adjusted EBITDA excluding MPLX 3,223
Reconciliation
72
MPC Adjusted EBITDA Related to MPLX to MPLX Net Income
($MM) 2016 LTM
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
MPLX Net Income (37) 20 143 132 258
Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (68) (64) (64) (65) (261)
Add: Provision for income taxes (4) (8) - - (12)
Depreciation and amortization 132 137 138 139 546
Impairment expense 129 90 - - 219
Adjusted EBITDA related to MPLX 288 303 345 336 1,272
MPC Annual Price and Margin Sensitivities Refining and Marketing Segment $MM (After Tax)
LLS 6-3-2-1 Crack Spread* Sensitivity ~$450 (per $1.00/barrel change) Sweet/Sour Differential** Sensitivity ~$225 (per $1.00/barrel change) LLS-WTI Spread*** Sensitivity ~$80 (per $1.00/barrel change) Natural Gas Price Sensitivity ~$130 (per $1.00/MMbtu change in Henry Hub)
*Weighted 40% Chicago and 60% USGC LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spreads and assumes all other differentials and pricing relationships remain unchanged **Light Louisiana Sweet (prompt) - [Delivered cost of sour crudes: Arab Light + Kuwait + Maya + Western Canadian Select + Mars] ***Assumes approximately 20% of crude throughput volumes are WTI-based domestic crudes
73
MPC’s Fully Integrated Downstream System
Refining and Marketing Seven-plant refining system with ~1.8 MMBPCD capacity One biodiesel facility and interest in three ethanol facilities One of the largest wholesale suppliers in our market area One of the largest producers of asphalt in the U.S. ~5,500 Marathon Brand retail outlets across 19 states Owns/operates 61 light product terminals and 18 asphalt terminals, while utilizing
third-party terminals at 121 light product and two asphalt locations 2,074 owned/leased railcars, 163 owned transport trucks
Speedway ~2,730 locations in 21 states Second largest U.S. owned/operated c-store chain
Midstream (including MPLX) Owns, leases or has interest in ~8,400 miles of crude and refined product pipelines 18 owned inland waterway towboats with 204 owned barges and 18 leased barges Owns/operates over 5,600 miles of gas gathering and NGL pipelines Owns/operates 54 gas processing plants, 14 NGL fractionation facilities and two
condensate stabilization facilities
MPC Refineries
Light Product Terminals MPC owned and Part-owned Third Party
Asphalt/Heavy Oil Terminals MPC Owned Third Party
Water Supplied Terminals Coastal Inland
Pipelines MPC Owned and Operated MPC Interest: Operated by MPC MPC Interest: Operated by Others Pipelines Used by MPC
Marketing Area Ethanol Facility Biodiesel Facility
Renewable Fuels
74
MarkWest Facility
Tank Farms
Butane Cavern
Pipelines
Barge Dock
Marine Repair Facility
As of December 31, 2016