banking crises and “japanization”: origins and implications

7/27/2019 Banking Crises and Japanization: Origins and Implications

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KDLI Reraijb Vkp`r X`ri`s

Lkjaijb Hris`s kjdNkpkjizktiej> Eribijs kjd

Igpoihktiejs

Gkskmire Akwkikjd V`t`r Gerbkj

Je* 486Nuoy


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Tm` Reraijb Vkp`r s`ri`s is k hejtijuktiej ec tm` cerg`roy jkg`d Dishussiej Vkp`r s`ri`s1 tm`jugl`rijb ec tm` pkp`rs hejtiju`d witmeut ijt`rruptiej er hmkjb`* KDLIs weraijb pkp`rsr`co`ht ijitiko id`ks ej k tepih kjd kr` pest`d ejoij` cer dishussiej* KDLI `jheurkb`s r`kd`rs tepest tmìr hegg`jts ej tm` gkij pkb` cer `khm weraijb pkp`r -biv`j ij tm` hitktiej lòew)*Xeg` weraijb pkp`rs gky d`vòep ijte etm`r cergs ec puloihktiej*

Xubb`st`d hitktiej>

Akwki/ G*/ kjd V* Gerbkj* Eribijs kjd Igpoihktiejs*KDLI Reraijb Vkp`r 486* Teaye> Ksikj D`vòepg`jt Lkja Ijstitut`* Kvkioklo`>mttp>www*kdli*erbweraijb'pkp`r !=;'8'8098'0066Ckx> !=;'8'8098'002;P\O> www*kdli*erb@'gkio> ijceFkdli*erb


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KDLI Reraijb Vkp`r 486 Akwki kjd Gerbkj

Klstrkht

Nkpkjs twe oest d`hkd`s p`rmkps r`pr`s`jt kj `xtr`g` `xkgpo` ec k w`ka r`hev`ry creg kcijkjhiko hrisis/ kjd kr` jew r`c`rr`d te ks Nkpkjizktiej* Ger` r`h`jtoy/ wid`spr`kd stkbjktiejij kdvkjh`d `hejegi`s ij tm` wka` ec tm` boelko cijkjhiko hrisis o`d te c`krs tmkt Nkpkjizktiejgibmt spr`kd te etm`r heujtri`s* Tmis study `xkgij`s tm` dig`jsiejs ec Nkpkjizktiejijhoudijb

oew tr`jd brewtm/ d`lt dò`v`rkbijb/ d`coktiej/ kjd gkssiv` ijhr`ks`s ij bev`rjg`jt d`ltkjdkjkoyz`s tmìr pessilo` hkus`sijhoudijb ijkd`qukt` gkhre`hejegih peoihy r`spejs`s/dòky`d lkjaijb s`hter r`struhturijb/ ijkd`qukt` herperkt` ijv`stg`jt/ oess ec ijdustrikohegp`titiv`j`ss/ k soewdewj ij tetko ckhter preduhtivity -TCV) brewtm du` te `xh`ssiv`r`buoktiej kjd `hejegih ribiditi`s/ kjd kj kbijb sehi`ty*

Tm` study hegpkr`s Nkpkjs `xp`ri`jh` witm tmr`` etm`r breups tmkt `xp`ri`jh`d lkjaijbhris`s ij tm` ;996sd`vòep`d `hejegi`s1 `g`rbijb Ksikj `hejegi`s kjd Oktij Kg`rihkj`hejegi`s* Nkpkjs `xp`ri`jh` is ceujd te pkrkooò gest hoesòy tmkt ec etm`r Ksikj `hejegi`stmkt `xp`ri`jh`d ujusukooy mibm brewtm rkt`s ec bress deg`stih preduht -BDV) kjd hr`dit l`cer`tmìr hris`s* Tm` study kose d`vòeps kj `hejeg`trih gedò ec oejb't`rg brewtm rkt`s tmkt us`sg`ksur`s ec j`t ijv`stg`jt/ tm` smkr` ec tm` kb`d ij tm` pepuoktiej/ kjd ehhurr`jh` ec lkjaijbhris`s ij kdditiej te trkditiejko `xpokjktery vkriklo`s* It cijds tmkt v`ry oew rkt`s ec hejsug`rprih` ijd`x -HVI) ijcoktiej -er d`coktiej) kjd j`t ijv`stg`jt/ tm` okha ec ep`jj`ss te cerìbjdir`ht ijv`stg`jt/ kjd kj kb`d pepuoktiej `xpokij guhm ec Nkpkjs soewdewj*

N@O Hokssicihktiej> @


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Hejt`jts

;* Ijtreduhtiej ********************************************************************************************************************* 8


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8

;* IJT\EDPHTIEJ

\`h`jt r`s`krhm mks ceujd tmkt `hejegih r`hev`ri`s creg lkjaijb hris`s t`jd te l`

w`ka`r kjd ger` preoejb`d tmkj tmes` creg trkditiejko typ`s ec d``p r`h`ssiejs -s`` cer`xkgpo` IGC


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4

Hklij`t Eccih`/ Bev`rjg`jt ec Nkpkj*

Ic ej` tka`s ;99< ks tm` y`kr ec tm` ejs`t ec tm` Nkpkj`s` lkjaijb hrisis/ tm` dktk smew kho`kr lr`ka ij tm` d`hkd`s l`cer` kjd kct`r tmis y`kr* Tklo` ; iooustrkt`s tmkt p`r wera`rr`ko BDV/ wmihm biv`s k g`ksur` ec okler preduhtivity/ mkd brewj kt


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0

d`hoij`d ev`r tig` creg 8* Tm` Hejc`r`jh` Lekrd dktk cer r`ko BDV kr` g`ksur`d ij ;996 ijt`rjktiejko deookrs hejv`rt`d ktB`kry'Amkgis -BA) purhmksijb pew`r pkriti`s -VVVs)*

Xeurh`> Hklij`t Eccih`/ Bev`rjg`jt ec Nkpkj1 E@HD/ Xtktistihko dktklks`1 Hejc`r`jh` Lekrd/ Tetko@hejegy Dktklks`1 kjd kutmers" `stigkt`s*

Tm` gkij dicc`r`jh` l`tw``j tm` Hejc`r`jh` Lekrd dktk kjd tm` Nkpkj`s` jktiejko

khheujts dktk is tmkt tm` cerg`r us`s B`kry'Amkgis -BA) deookrs/ wmihm kr` kdnust`d cerletm ijcoktiej kjd purhmksijb pew`r pkrity -VVV)* Tmis mks tm` kdvkjtkb` ec puttijb kooheujtri`s brewtm dktk ij hegpkrklo` ujits* Tm` us` ec VVV prih` g`ksur`s prelkloyseg`wmkt eccs`ts tm` `cc`hts ec tm` y`js kppr`hiktiej durijb tm` p`ried/ kjd tm`r`cer` isprelkloy tm` gkner r`ksej l`mijd tm` mibm`r brewtm `stigkt`* Biv`j tmkt BA deookrs kr`jet y`t wid`oy us`d cer ijt`rjktiejko hegpkrisejs/ w` cehus ej tm` oehko hurr`jhy'lks`d ertm` Rerod Lkjas


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3

tm`ir r`sp`htiv` p`kas creg Gkrhm ;9=3* Ij tm` suls`qu`jt


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2

hejtijueus ckoo ec tm` BDV d`cokter cer ger` tmkj ;0 y`krs kjd tm` oejb't`rg stkbjktiej ecjegijko BDV brewtm cer ger` tmkj Brewtm \kt`s ec Oekjs kjd Disheujts ec Deg`stihkooy'Oih`js`d

Lkjas -%)/ ;9=6


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=

Tm` s`hejd c`ktur` ec Nkpkjs pest'lullo` p`ried mks l``j tm` preoejb`d d`coktiej ecbeeds kjd s`rvih`s prih`s -s`` Cibur` 0)* Tm` BDV d`cokter mks ckoo`j ;=% sijh` its p`kaij ;998/ gestoy r`co`htijb okrb` d`hoij`s ij prih`s ec `xperts kjd hkpitko ijv`stg`jt beeds*Tm` ejoy `xh`ptiejs w`r` k loip ij ;992 -du` te k mia` ij tm` hejsugptiej tkx rkt` creg 8%

te 0%) kjd k soibmt loip ij


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9

rkt`s/ r`co`htijb tm` Lkja ec Nkpkjs -LEN) `ccerts te heglkt prih` d`coktiej -Cibur` 2)* Tm`ev`rjibmt hkoo rkt`/ tm` LENs jergko ep`rktijb tkrb`t/ mks stky`d hoes` te z`re sijh` ;999/`xh`pt cer twe ioo'ckt`d kjd t`gperkry rkt` mia` `pised`s ij H@IH Dktklks`*


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;6

Tm` cijko gkner hmkrkht`ristih ec Nkpkjs stkbjktiej mks l``j tm` lkooeejijb ec bev`rjg`jtd`lt* Nkpkj jew mks tm` dulieus mejer ec mkvijb tm` mibm`st o`vòs ec letm bress d`lt kjdj`t d`lt ks k p`rh`jt ec BDV kgejb tm` E@HD heujtri`s -Cibur` =)/ kotmeubm it mks jetsucc`r`d elvieusoy cer it* Tmis smkrp ris` mks l``j du` te hejtijueusoy okrb` cishko d`cihits

ks k r`suot ec d`hoijijb tkx r`v`ju`s r`co`htijb w`ka `hejegih brewtm kjd ec jug`reusokrb` cishko stiguous pkhakb`s/ ks wòo ks k st`kdy ris` ij eod'kb`'ròkt`d sehiko s`huritysp`jdijb -cer p`jsiejs kjd m`kotm) r`co`htijb tm` rkpidoy kbijb sehi`ty*

Cibur` => Nkpkj`s` Bev`rjg`jt D`lt O`vòs -% ec BDV)/ ;9=6


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;;

preoejb`d pkh` ec dò`v`rkbijb/ o`kdijb te p`rsist`jt kss`t prih` stkbjktiej1

soew r`khtiej te lkjaijb s`hter prelo`gs ij tm` cerg ec r`buoktery cerl`krkjh` kjdzegli` cijkjhijb1

okha ec struhturko r`cerg r`suotijb ij `xh`ssiv` r`buoktiej/ `hejegih ribiditi`s/oigit`d ep`jj`ss/ kjd ij`ccihi`jhy1 kjd

kbijb ec tm` pepuoktiej*

Tm` cirst ckhter is lksihkooy ej` ec gej`tkry peoihy/ tmkt is/ tm` LEN r`kht`d tee soewoy kjdròuhtkjtoy te `ks` peoihy ij tm` ckh` ec tm` heookps` ec tm` kss`t prih` lullo` kjd tm`d`vòepijb lkjaijb hrisis ij tm` `kroy te gid';996s* P`dk -


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y 7 K;;' mqj`x%;'

Tklo` < smews tm` hejtrilutiejs te Nkpkj`s` r`ko p`r hkpitk BDV brewtm* Tm` dktktmreubm ;99; ij tm` tklo` kr` creg Mkyksmi kjd Vr`shett -


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;3

8* IJT@\JKTIEJKO HEGVK\KTIS@ V@\XV@HTIS@X ECLKJAIJB H\IXIX @]V@\I@JH@X

8*; Oit`rktur` Xurv`y

Lkjaijb hrisis dktklks`s

Cijkjhiko hris`s kr` typihkooy divid`d ijte syst`gih lkjaijb hris`s/ sev`rìbj d`lt hris`s/kjd hurr`jhy hris`s/ kjd twe er ger` ec tm`s` gky ehhur ij heglijktiej* Ij tm` ;996s -erij kjy pestwkr p`ried)/ Nkpkj did jet succ`r sev`rìbj d`lt hris`s er hurr`jhy hris`s/ sew` cehus eur ktt`jtiej ij tmis pkp`r ej lkjaijb hris`s* Twe ec tm` gest r`h`jt okrbìjt`rjktiejko dktklks`s ej syst`gih lkjaijb hris`s kr` previd`d ij Ok`v`j kjd Sko`jhik- -;) lkja rujs tmkt o`kd te tm` hoesur`/ g`rbijb/ er tkaèv`rly tm` puloih s`hter ec ej` er ger` cijkjhiko ijstitutiejs -ks ij S`j`zuòk ij ;998 er

Krb`jtijk ij


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;2

tm` eln`htiv` ec eur study* Tm`ir r`br`ssiej `quktiej ktt`gpts te cijd eut wm`tm`r tm`brewtm rkt` ec r`ko BDV smews k lr`ka ij tm` o`v`o kjder tm` oejb't`rg tr`jd kt tm` tig` ectm` hrisis ly ijhoudijb duggi`s cer tm` tigijb ec tm` hrisis kjd tm` ijt`rkhtiej l`tw``j tig`kjd tm` duggy vkriklo`* Tm`y id`jticy hrisis p`rieds lks`d ej Ok`v`j kjd Sko`jhik

-


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;=

8*< Ijt`rjktiejko @xp`ri`jh`s ec Lkjaijb Hris`s

Tmis s`htiej hegpkr`s Nkpkjs lkjaijb hrisis `xp`ri`jh` witm tmes` ec etm`r heujtri`s*Xp`hicihkooy/ w` hegpkr` Nkpkj witm tmr`` breups ec heujtri`s tmkt kose `xp`ri`jh`dlkjaijb hris`s ij tm` ;996sE@HD/ Ksikj/ kjd Oktij Kg`rihkj heujtri`s* Kjj`x Cibur`s;8 previd` ijcergktiej kleut tm` p`rcergkjh` ec p`r hkpitk r`ko BDV ij tm`s` heujtri`s*Nkpkj did jet `xp`ri`jh` k smkrp d`hoij` ij p`r hkpitk r`ko BDVujoia` tm` hks` ecCijokjd -;99;98)/ Xw`d`j -;99;98)/ Ijdej`sik -;99=99)/ er Tmkiokjd -;99392)lutskw k sibjicihkjt soewdewj ij tm` brewtm ec p`r hkpitk r`ko BDV durijb tm` ;996s kjd


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;9

Tklo` 8> E@HD Heujtri`s @xp`ri`jh` witm Lkjaijb Hris`s ij tm` ;996s

Skriklo` kjdp`ried Kustrkoik Cijokjd Crkjh` Itkoy Nkpkj Xw`d`j PA PX Kv`rkb`

Hrisis y`krs ;9=99< ;99;94

;99490/


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Tm` hrisis y`krs hev`r koo tm` p`rieds kjd kr` lks`d ej \`ijmkrt kjd \ebecc - Rerod Lkja/ Rerod D`v`oepg`jt Ijdihkters dktklks`/ cer p`r hkpitk r`ko BDV -ij hejstkjt


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tm` ijitiko o`vò ec oeb p`r hkpitk r`ko BDV -`xp`ht`d te l` k j`bktiv`ckhter du` te tm` hejv`rb`jh` mypetm`sis)/ kjd twe kot`rjktiv` g`ksur`s ec hkpitko

khhuguoktiej/ i*`*/ tm` rktie ec j`t ijv`stg`jt te BDV kjd tm` hejtrilutiej te brewtm cregtm` hkpitko steha -pesitiv` ckhter)* X`hejd/ w` ijhoud` k cijkjhiko ckhtertm` hmkjb` ij tm`rktie ec deg`stih hr`dit te BDV creg tm` pr`vieus p`riedwmihm gky kcc`ht brewtmpesitivòy* Tmird/ w` ijhoud` tm` HVI ijcoktiej rkt` te s`` ic oew ijcoktiej -er d`coktiej) hkjhkus` k d`hoij` ij p`r hkpitk er p`r wera`r r`ko BDV brewtm* Ceurtm/ w` ijhoud` tm` r`ko`cc`htiv` `xhmkjb` rkt` -\@@\)/ tm` kppr`hiktiej ec wmihm gky r`tkrd p`r hkpitk er p`rwera`r r`ko BDV brewtm* Twe g`ksur`s ec tm` \@@\tm` oeb dicc`r`jh` creg tm` kv`rkbèc tm` pr`vieus civ`'y`kr p`ried kjd tm` civ`'y`kr kv`rkb` ec tm` d`viktiej creg tm` ;6'y`krgevijb kv`rkb`kr` tri`d* Cictm/ te hkptur` tm` `cc`ht ec lkjaijb hris`s/ k hrisis duggyvkriklo` is ijhoud`d witm k vkou` ec ujity ic k hrisis is id`jtici`d ij tm` \ìjmkrt'\ebeccdktklks` kjd z`re etm`rwis`* K s`pkrkt` duggy is kose ijhoud`d cer tm`

-Brewtm rkt` ec BDVVep)nt 7 .Hejstkjt ! .oj-BDVVep)nt6! .-J`t ijv`stg`jtBDV)nt ! ;.-HVI ijcoktiej)nt !


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Ged`o @stigkt`s ec Nkpkj`s` V`r HkpitkRera`r \`ko BDV Brewtm

-Kjjuko kv`rkb` rkt` ec brewtm/ %)

' Jimej Pjiv`rsity*

www*i`r*mit'u*kh*np~jisizkwkt`rkjismi*pdc*

P`dk/ A*


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8 V`r Hkpitk \`ko BDV ec E@HD Heujtri`s Tmkt @xp`ri`jh`d Lkjaijb Hris`s ij tm` ;996s


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Kjj`x Cibur` V`r Hkpitk \`ko BDV ec Ksikj Heujtri`s Tmkt @xp`ri`jh`d Lkjaijb Hris`s ij tm` ;996s


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84

Kjj`x Cibur` 8> V`r Hkpitk \`ko BDV ec Nkpkj kjd Oktij Kg`rihkj Heujtri`s Tmkt @xp`ri`jh`d LkjaijbHris`s ij tm` ;996s


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KDLI Reraijb Vkp`r 4 D`cijitiejs ec Skriklo`s Ps`d ij \`br`ssiej Kjkoysis

Skriklo` D`cijitiej D`shriptiej kjd hegg`jts Xeurh`

BDVVep V`r hkpitk r`ko BDV ij hejstkjt Kutmers*

banking crises and “japanization”: origins and implications

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