barclays global financial services conference sep. 13 2016 final
TRANSCRIPT
©2015 First American Financial Corporation and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. q NYSE: FAF
First American Financial Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 13, 2016
Safe Harbor Statement
2
CERTAIN STATEMENTS MADE IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE RELATED MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY CONTAIN, AND RESPONSES TO INVESTOR QUESTIONS MAY CONTAIN, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF SECTION 27A OF THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED, AND SECTION 21E OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, AS AMENDED. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE FACT THAT THEY DO NOT RELATE STRICTLY TO HISTORICAL OR CURRENT FACTS AND MAY CONTAIN THE WORDS “BELIEVE,” “ANTICIPATE,” “EXPECT,” “INTEND,” “PLAN,” “PREDICT,” “ESTIMATE,” “PROJECT,” “WILL BE,” “WILL CONTINUE,” “WILL LIKELY RESULT,” OR OTHER SIMILAR WORDS AND PHRASES OR FUTURE OR CONDITIONAL VERBS SUCH AS “WILL,” “MAY,” “MIGHT,” “SHOULD,” “WOULD,” OR “COULD.” THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION, STATEMENTS REGARDING FUTURE OPERATIONS, PERFORMANCE, FINANCIAL CONDITION, PROSPECTS, PLANS AND STRATEGIES. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS THAT MAY PROVE TO BE INCORRECT. RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES EXIST THAT MAY CAUSE RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE SET FORTH IN THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE THE ANTICIPATED RESULTS TO DIFFER FROM THOSE DESCRIBED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: INTEREST RATE FLUCTUATIONS; CHANGES IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKETS; VOLATILITY IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS; UNFAVORABLE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS; IMPAIRMENTS IN THE COMPANY’S GOODWILL OR OTHER INTANGIBLE ASSETS; FAILURES AT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WHERE THE COMPANY DEPOSITS FUNDS; CHANGES IN APPLICABLE GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS; HEIGHTENED SCRUTINY BY LEGISLATORS AND REGULATORS OF THE COMPANY’S TITLE INSURANCE AND SERVICES SEGMENT AND CERTAIN OTHER OF THE COMPANY’S BUSINESSES; THE CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU’S EXERCISE OF ITS BROAD RULEMAKING AND SUPERVISORY POWERS; REFORM OF GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED MORTGAGE ENTERPRISES; LIMITATIONS ON ACCESS TO PUBLIC RECORDS AND OTHER DATA; CHANGES IN RELATIONSHIPS WITH LARGE MORTGAGE LENDERS AND GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES; CHANGES IN MEASURES OF THE STRENGTH OF THE COMPANY’S TITLE INSURANCE UNDERWRITERS, INCLUDING RATINGS AND STATUTORY CAPITAL AND SURPLUS; LOSSES IN THE COMPANY’S INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO; MATERIAL VARIANCE BETWEEN ACTUAL AND EXPECTED CLAIMS EXPERIENCE; DEFALCATIONS, INCREASED CLAIMS OR OTHER COSTS AND EXPENSES ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE COMPANY’S USE OF TITLE AGENTS; ANY INADEQUACY IN THE COMPANY’S RISK MITIGATION EFFORTS; SYSTEMS DAMAGE, FAILURES, INTERRUPTIONS AND INTRUSIONS, OR UNAUTHORIZED DATA DISCLOSURES; ERRORS AND FRAUD INVOLVING THE TRANSFER OF FUNDS; INABILITY TO REALIZE THE BENEFITS OF THE COMPANY’S OFFSHORE OPERATIONS; INABILITY OF THE COMPANY’S SUBSIDIARIES TO PAY DIVIDENDS OR REPAY FUNDS; INABILITY TO REALIZE THE BENEFITS OF, AND CHALLENGES ARISING FROM, THE COMPANY’S ACQUISITION STRATEGY; AND OTHER FACTORS DESCRIBED IN THE COMPANY’S QUARTERLY REPORT ON FORM 10-Q FOR THE QUARTER ENDED JUNE 30, 2016, AS FILED WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS OF THE DATE THEY ARE MADE. THE COMPANY DOES NOT UNDERTAKE TO UPDATE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT CIRCUMSTANCES OR EVENTS THAT OCCUR AFTER THE DATE THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE MADE.
Use of non-GAAP Financial Measures
3
This slide presentation contains, and related commentary and answers to questions may contain certain financial measures that are not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), including net operating revenue and success ratios. Although these exclusions represent actual gains, losses or expenses to the Company, they may mask the periodic income and financial and operating trends associated with the Company’s business. The Company is presenting these non-GAAP financial measures because they provide the Company’s management and investors with additional insight into the operational performance of the Company relative to earlier periods and relative to the Company’s competitors. The Company does not intend for these non-GAAP financial measures to be a substitute for any GAAP financial information. In the slide presentation these non-GAAP financial measures have been presented with, and reconciled to, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Investors should use these non-GAAP financial measures only in conjunction with the comparable GAAP financial measures.
Organizational Structure
2015 Revenue: $5.2B Total Revenue Trend
Specialty 7%
Mortgage & Data
Solutions 9%
International 6%
U.S. Title 78%
3.3 3.7 3.5
4.0
0.6
0.6 0.4
0.4 0.3
0.3 0.4
0.4 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
International Specialty Mortgage & Data Solutions U.S. Title 4
Strategy Evolution
5 5
2010-2013
2013-2016
2016 - 2020
Position FA post-spin & manage crisis fallout
Become more efficient & strengthen balance sheet
Grow profitably & innovate for productivity
Key business actions
• Standardized and centralized back-office operations
• Increased leverage of offshore assets
• Simplified operating structure
• Moderate market share growth
• Enhanced data capabilities
• Achieved cost leadership
• Continue to drive cost advantage
• Emphasize growth, primarily in direct and complementary businesses
• Leverage data for productivity
Key capital actions
• Simplified legal entity structure
• Strengthened balance sheet
• Increased dividend
• Deploy capital towards growth
• Distribute more cash to shareholders
Common themes
Focus on efficiency Value our people
Prudently manage our capital
First American’s Strategy
6
Vision: To be the premier title insurance and settlement services company
Innovation
Compliance and risk management
Focus M&A on enhancing the core
Optimize capital management strategy
People and culture
Profitably grow our
core title and settlement
business
Strengthen the enterprise through data and process advantage
Manage and actively
invest in complementary businesses that
support or expand the core
Deploy our capital to maximize long-term shareholder returns
Refinance Market
7
Current Trend
Outlook
• Strong pipeline going into 2H
• Open orders remain elevated, peaking in July
• No material resources added to handle the refinance surge
• Closely monitoring order levels as we approach seasonal slowdown
• Volatile market - dependent on interest rates
• Expecting long term decline in refinance volumes
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Open Orders / Day
2015 2016
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Closed Orders / Day
2015 2016
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Open Orders / Day
2015 2016
Purchase Market
8
Current Trend
Outlook
• 5% revenue growth in 1H
• Fees per file grew 6%
• Closed orders down 1%
• Home price appreciation strong
• Strong buyer demand
• Lack of for sale inventory in existing homes a factor
• Expect continued growth in 2017 and beyond
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Closed Orders / Day
2015 2016
9
Current Trend
Outlook
• Expect strength in commercial over the next 1-3 years, albeit below 2015 record levels
• Well positioned national platform
• Seeing continued strength across most markets and asset classes
• Overall quality and size of deals remain high, although deals greater than $1M in premium have slowed
• Capital availability and foreign flows continue to support market
$ in
mill
ion
s A
vera
ge R
even
ue
per
Ord
er
Clo
sed
Ord
ers
per
Day
273 261
45 48 465 506
598
81 89
98
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2013 2014 2015
Local NCS
546 595
696
318 309
YTD Jun 2015
YTD Jun 2016
313 308
200
240
280
320
360
400
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
6,989 7,652
8,583
310 309 322
200
250
300
350
400
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
2013 2014 2015
8,148 7,983
YTD Jun 2015
YTD Jun 2016
Commercial Market
Objective
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$-
$700
$1,400
$2,100
$2,800
$3,500
$4,2002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
E
Mortgage Originations Pretax Margin
($ in
Bill
ion
s)
(1)
1) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Title Insurance Segment Margins
10
YTD June 2016
Capital Management Strategy
11
• Capital Management Priorities:
• Make value-creating investments to build our business
• Acquire businesses that fit within our strategy
• Return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
• Maintain “A-” financial strength ratings and strong capital levels
• Manage our capital structure prudently
• Maintain ample financial flexibility and holding company liquidity
Objective: Create Long-Term Shareholder Value
32%
15%
28%
39% 38% 40%
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Payout Ratio
Dividends
12
Dividend Considerations:
• Announced 31% increase to dividend in August
• Forecasted cash flows are sufficient to support continued investments in the core business, strategic acquisitions and increased dividend payments
• Dividend viewed as sustainable through the cycle
• Dividend payout ratio rises to 45% based on 2017 consensus estimate
• The company is not committed to increasing the dividend every year.
(1)
1) Calculated using Consensus EPS estimate for 2016 and 2017
$0.24 $0.36
$0.48
$0.84 $1.00
$1.20 $1.36
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Dividends per share
(1)
Legal Entity Re-alignment Increased Dividend Capacity
2015
First American Title
Insurance Company
First American Financial Corp
Republic Title (Agent)
First American Property and
Casualty
First American Data
Company
First American Trust
First American Home Buyers
Protection
First American Title Company
– Hawaii (Agent)
First American Professional Real Estate
Services
First American Title Company
– Texas (Agent)
First American Title Company
(Agent)
Note: Legal structure as of June 30, 2012; not a complete list of legal entities
2012 Actual dividends to Holding Company excluding FATICO
Other Subsidiaries $12M
2012
First American Property and
Casualty
Other Subsidiaries
First American Data
Company
50%
First American Financial Corp
First American Title
Insurance Company
50%
2015 Actual dividends to Holding Company excluding FATICO
Other Subsidiaries $83M
13
849
956 996 979
1,104
1,208
105% 73%
54%
28% 15% 14%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2'16
Surplus Affiliates % of Surplus
US$ in millions
Enhanced Statutory Capital
14
• Recently completed a multi-year effort to enhance the financial strength and flexibility of the company
• ~50% of free cash flow between 2011-2015 was used to grow the investment portfolio, primarily to strengthen the surplus quality of our primary underwriter - FATICO
• Future cash flows at FATICO will primarily be up-streamed to the holding company for capital deployment (dividend, M&A, etc.)
1,050 1,013 1,015 949 936
912
58%
86%
107%
121%
147%
165%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2-16
Reserves Mkt Securities % of Reserves
US$ in millions
US$ in millions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2'16
Beginning Surplus 868 849 956 996 979 1,104
Net Income 92 301 199 393 192 86
Dividend to Parent (47) (219) (139) (263) (60) -
Other (65) 26 (20) (148) (7) 18
Ending Surplus 849 956 996 979 1,104 1,208
Dividend to Parent:
Cash 45 - 40 - 60 -
Non-cash 2 219 99 263 - -
Total 47 219 139 263 60 -
Total Non-cash dividend to Parent for the prior 5 years 582
Investment Considerations
• “Pure play” in title and mortgage markets
• Strong competitive position in title and settlement services
‒ Continue to pursue profitable market share gains
‒ Strengthening the enterprise through data capabilities
• Structural cost reductions have enhanced earnings power
‒ Expect earnings and margin growth as purchase market improves
‒ Anticipate cash flow to increase from both higher earnings and lower paid claims over the next few years
• Strong balance sheet and financial flexibility
‒ Legal entity re-alignment increases dividend capacity
• Commitment to return capital to shareholders
‒ Raised dividend 31% this quarter - 3.2% dividend yield, 45% payout ratio
15
Total Shareholder Return
Note: Annualized returns as of August 31,2016 16
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
8/31/2011 8/30/2012 8/30/2013 8/30/2014 8/30/2015 8/29/2016
FAF S&P 500
8/31/2016
1 year 3 year 5 year
First American 13.9% 30.7% 26.0%
S&P 500 12.5% 12.3% 14.7%
©2015 First American Financial Corporation and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. q NYSE: FAF
Appendix
Balance Sheet
18
As of June, 30 2016 ($ millions)
Assets
Cash & equivalents $1,242
Investments 5,087
Other assets 1,474
Goodwill & intangibles 1,034
Total assets $8,837
Liabilities & Equity
Demand Deposits $3,100
Other Liabilities 1,219
Reserves 995
Debt 579
Equity 2,944
Total liabilities & equity $8,837
Return on Equity
TTM Net income $312
Average Equity $2,799
ROE 11.1%
Debt-to-capital 16.4%
Book value per share $26.81
Tangible equity $1,910
Statutory surplus $1,208
Investment Portfolio
Consolidated Portfolio $4.9 Billion
Insurance Portfolio $2.1 Billion
Bank Portfolio $2.8 Billion
19
Note: Debt and equity securities as of June 30, 2016
Avg. Rating: AA-
Duration: 2.9
Book Yield: 2.1%
Avg. Rating: A+
Duration: 4.4
Book Yield: 2.9%
Avg. Rating: AA-
Duration: 1.9
Book Yield: 1.4%
US Treasury 3%
Gov't Agency 7% Municipal
16%
Corporate 19%
Gov't Agency MBS 45%
Foreign 3%
Equity 7%
US Treasury
6%
Gov't Agency
3% Municipal
18%
Corporate 38%
Gov't Agency
MBS 11% Foreign
7%
Equity 17%
Gov't Agency
10%
Municipal 14%
Corporate 4%
Gov't Agency
MBS 72%
(2)
Ultimate Loss Ratios by Policy Year
Paid
Lo
sses
by
Cal
end
ar Y
ear
($ in
Mill
ion
s)
Ult
imat
e Lo
ss R
atio
s b
y Po
licy
Year
20 1) Ultimate loss ratios are estimates and calculated as a percentage of title premiums and escrow fees for a given policy year as of June 30, 2016
2) Paid claims forecast assumes 5% ultimate loss ratio and 3% premium growth rate for 2016-2018
(2)
(1)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Paid to Date Ultimate Loss Ratio - Policy Year Paid Losses - Calendar Year
Forecast
93%
92%
90% 91% 88%
86%
85%
81%
78% 71%
56% 45% 37%
5.3% 5.2%
7.7%
9.6%
10.6%
9.5%
6.2%
5.1% 5.0%
3.4% 3.8%
4.8%
13.4%
4.3%
10%
2015 Incurred Claims Detail
Claim Cause Process Cause
21
Liens (22%) Encumbrances (17%)
Fraud (8%)
Basic Risks (19%)
Other (15%)
File Shortages (3%)
Defective Title (7%)
Disputed Procedure (1%)
Escrow/Closing (4%)
GVS / PVII (4%)
No Error (52%)
Escrow/Closing (18%)
Underwriting (8%)
Exam (16%)
Other (4%)
Unclassified (3%)
Title Segment Success Ratio
• < 60% when NOR increases
• > 60% when NOR decreases
• 60% target is only sustainable until optimized margin is achieved
• Success ratio is less meaningful when NOR is stable
• Due to the seasonality, success ratio is most useful when comparing period to prior year
Target YTD June 2016 Calculation
($ in millions) 2016 2015 Change
Personnel and other operating expenses Total revenues
$1,106
2,354
$1,095
2,247
+11
Less: Premiums retained by agents 809 738
Net investment income 52 48
Net realized investment gains 11 2
Net operating revenues (NOR) $1,482 $1,459 +23
Success Ratio 47% 22
YTD June