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Studies

A policy directed framework for moving from ‘unintended

consequences’ to intended co-benefits and explicit trade-offs

Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES)Bartlett School of Graduate studies

Alex Macmillan

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Current framing of policy

Single focus policies “unintended” effects– Across sectors– At different time and geographical scales– Policy formulation and implementation

Need for different approaches

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Ecosystem sustainability

Societal wellbeing

Functioning economy

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Intervening in the housing system

Methods

1. Participatory System Dynamics (SD) Modelling

2. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

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Participatory SDM process

1. Recruitment of stakeholders

2. Interviews

3. Development of concept model

4. Development of simulation model

5. Simulations

6. Policy and research insights

5 Desired outcomes

Evidence of problems thatrelate to achievement of

outcomes

Representation of systemstructure and behaviour

Dynamic model

Scenarioexperimentation

Policy design

SYSTEM STRUCTURE SYSTEM BEHAVIOUR

Perception ofsystem structure

Comparison &reconci l iation

Representation ofsystem structure

Menta l models ,experience, l i terature

Diagramming &descriptive tools

Behaviour ofproblems over time

Comparison &reconci l iation.

Exploration ofmodel behaviour

Computers imulation tools

Li terature &experience

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Example: Interviews

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Example: causal diagrams

ventilation

temperature

mold growth

crowding

infectiousrespiratory illness

asthma

disposablewealth

days off work

income

heating

indoor clothesdrying

damp

relative humidity

-

+

+

--

pathogenexposure

+

+

+

++

++

+

-

+

+

-

+

R

R

R

R

can't afford a dryer

too many peoplebreathing

sleeping in one roomto stay warm

vicious cycle ofsickness and poverty

dryer ownershipand use

+

-

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Example: scenario simulation

10:59 a.m. Mon, 10 Sep 2012

Per capita GHG emissions f rom commuting (metric tons)

Page 81991 2006 2021 2036 2051

Years

1:

1:

1:

0.0

2.5

5.0Per capita CO2eq t: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 -

1

1 1

12

22

23

3

3

3

44

4

4

5 5

5

5

10:59 a.m. Mon, 10 Sep 2012

Air pollution outcomes

Page 41991 2006 2021 2036 2051

Years

1:

1:

1:

0

10

20annual air pollution mortality : 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 -

11

1 1

2

2

2 2

3

3

3 3

4

4

4 4

5

5

5 5

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Contact

Alex MacmillanComplex Built Environment Systems GroupUniversity College Londona.macmillan@ucl.ac.uk