battery presentation for phoenix 2011

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NanoMarkets

Thin-Film Batteries:Technologies and Markets

Prepared for the 10th Flexible Electronics and Displays Conference and Exhibition February 2011

© 2011NanoMarkets, LC


NanoMarkets

About NanoMarkets LC

• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering thin-film and printable battery markets for five years

• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides an updated forecast and analysis for the thin-film and printable battery market annually. We also cover supercapacitors

• Offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world

© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC

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Questions Answered in Today’s Presentation

• How are thin-film and printable batteries different?

• New directions for thin-film battery chemistries

• Key applications and forecasts for thin-film batteries

• Strategic options for suppliers of thin-film batteries


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Some Definitions

• Thin-film (TF) batteries. Solid-state batteries manufactured using standard semiconductor industry deposition and patterning techniques. Closely related to -- and sometimes confused with – printed batteries

• TF batteries could be printed, but usually printed batteries have printed electrodes and a liquid electrolyte. TF batteries use a solid electrolyte laid down in the same way as the other layers of the battery. Typically the solid electrolyte is a material developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)


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“Thin-Film” Versus “Printable” Batteries

• TF batteries are mostly based on lithium chemistry, although there are variations on this that are being developed

• By contrast, printable batteries use mostly zinc-manganese dioxide chemistry, although Blue Spark Technologies, uses carbon-zinc chemistry

• There are also attempts underway to print lithium batteries, which perhaps points the way to a day in where solid-state and printable batteries are one and the same

• For the most part TF and printable batteries have the same addressable markets


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Thin-Film Lithium Battery Chemistries

Anode Cathode Electrolyte

Lithium manganese

dioxide

Lithium metal Manganese

dioxide

Organic

Lithium phosphorus

oxynitride

Lithium metal Lithium cobalt

oxide (LiCoO2)

Lithium

phosphorus

oxynitride ceramic

Lithium thionyl

chloride

Lithium metal Porous carbon

filled with liquid

thionyl chloride

Porous carbon

filled with liquid

thionyl chloride

acts as cathode

and electrolyte

Lithium oxygen Lithium

(typically with

another metal)

Atmospheric

oxygen

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New Directions in Battery Chemistries

• NanoMarkets sees opportunities in improving TF battery electrolytes. The standard ORNL electrolyte is deposited using sputtering and thermal evaporation—a complex, expensive, and difficult to scale to high volumes process

• A different approach, one that is being taken by Solicore, is the use of lithium as the anode, manganese dioxide as the cathode, and a coatable polymer matrix electrolyte

• Other difference occur in the substrate: Cymbet and Oak Ridge Micro-Energy use ceramic wafers; Infinite Power Solutions uses metal foil and Excellatron uses a polymer such as Kapton or sandwiches the cells between packaging foils


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Lithium Polymer Batteries

• Lithium polymer batteries (Li-poly or LiPo) are rechargeable batteries that have technologically evolved from lithium-ion batteries. The lithium-salt electrolyte is held in a solid polymer composite such as polyacrylonitrile or polyethylene oxide

• Because there is no battery casing required, a lithium polymer battery can be lighter than a regular lithium battery and it can also be shaped to fit the device it will power

• In addition, it offers denser packaging, which results in an energy density for Li-poly batteries that is over 20 percent higher than that of a classic Li-ion battery

• Two firms developing thin-film batteries based on this chemistry are Solicore and Ultralife

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RFID and TF batteries . . . a disappointment

• TF battery makers have claimed that existing RFID battery solutions cannot reached the cost points necessary for high volume deployment of active tags. For widespread use of RFIDs a thin and possibly fully printable solution would seem to be necessary

• But progress has been slow and in many cases active tags are attached to large crates or cartons and “thinness” is not necessarily a huge advantage. Printability for RFID is happening slowly

• RFIDs are not being abandoned as a target market by the TF/printable battery firms, but these firms are refocusing on more immediate prospects. Potential for $155 million in RFID battery sales in 2016

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Smart Cards . . . a savior for TF batteries?

• Strong case for smartcards that include a display for one-time password (OTP) defense against misuse and ID theft. Cards may also incorporate light and sound. Will probably require batteries not inductive fields for power, but batteries must be thin and flexible. Blue Spark’s batteries are being pitched toward this market on the grounds that it is the industry’s thinnest battery

• A lot of printing goes into making a smartcard so there may be a tendency to choose a printable battery for these products. But TF batteries may better withstand high-temperature lamination Solicore has a patent on battery that can withstand this heat during a lamination process

• Smartcards, both powered or not powered, may get a boost from the trend toward e-passports and the enthusiasm for national ID cards in some countries. Some ID card concepts include financial transaction verification; a battery-powered card might prove useful here. Potential for $483 million in smartcard battery sales in 2016

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Sensors . . . a diverse opportunity ?

• The sensor business is very large and very diverse in terms of product types, suppliers and users. This is an issue for any firms selling into the sensor business

• Also, most sensors do not need small form factor batteries. However, there are important exceptions:

– Flexible sensor arrays for medical and military applications

– Sensors mart packaging

• Solid-state batteries may have uses in harsh environments (such as oil rigs, or even automotive)

• Potential for $559 million in sensor battery sales in 2016

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Strategic Options for TF Battery Makers

• Improved performance: Improve battery performance in an incremental manner, e.g. longer lifetimes, or longer times between charging. But unless the performance improvements are big leaps forward, they are unlikely to provide battery suppliers with large competitive advantages

• Adding value: Low volumes, so firms need strategies to generate revenues. Can move up the value chain and make products incorporating batteries, e.g. Power Paper (cosmetic patch/OLED lights) and Cymbet (energy harvesting). More revenues/builds credibility for TF batteries

• Powering disposable electronics: Target applications “where the requirements already meet the (low) performance of the products.” May get you to mass markets in a short period of time. But finding those products can be difficult, volumes of toys and games are often low.

• Batteries for high-end products: Mostly this means medical and military markets. May involve novel technologies (Biophan)

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Some Conclusions

• This sector has been a technology chasing after a market to serve. But this seems to be changing and some firms in this space (Cymbet, IPS, Power Paper, Solicore) have received substantial investments

• The use of TF batteries seems to fit with megatrends in medicine and computing. The market will be under $100 million this year, but could be as high as $1.9 billion by 2017, with smartcards and sensors being especially important to growth

• A number of strategies are possible to extract this value from the market, but merely improving on performance in incremental ways seems unlikely to be productive. Better strategies are moving up the value chain, or focusing on particular market niches


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Lawrence GasmanLawrence Gasman is the Principal Analyst at NanoMarkets and heads up NanoMarkets’ OLED lighting industry research program. Mr. Gasman has been an industry analyst in the optoelectronics space for 25 years and his consulting clients have included (among many others) Analog Devices, Cabot, Hewlett-Packard, Honeywell, IBM, Intel, NEC, and Panasonic, as well as a large number of high-tech start-ups and investment firms. Mr. Gasman’s work has been carried out in Asia, Europe and North America.

Mr. Gasman has been quoted in a wide range of trade publications as well as The Wall Street Journal and Investor’s Business Daily, Business 2.0, Red Herring and Small Times. In addition to his work in the optoelectronics industry, he has also written widely on telecommunications and IT and has authored three books in that area, as well as testifying to Congress on the future of the FCC. He is a member of the IEEE, and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, a leading Washington, D.C. “think tank.”

Mr. Gasman’s latest book is on the commercialization of nanotechnology for Artech House and he has been a speaker at many conferences on printable and organic electronics and nanotech-nology, including Lighting Japan, the Optical Semiconductor Conference (OSC) and the annual Plastic Electronic Foundation (PEF) conference. Mr. Gasman holds a mathematics degree from the University of Manchester and advanced degrees from the London School Of Economics and the London Business School.


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Contact

NanoMarkets, LC

[email protected]

www.nanomarkets.net

Phone: 804-360-2967


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http://www.nanomarkets.net/

battery presentation for phoenix 2011

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