Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.

18th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

“The Tampa Bay Rental Multi-Family Market : New Construction Returns”

Tampa Westshore Marriott HotelNovember 28th , 2012

Sponsored by:

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct 2011

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,000

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct-11

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

OCCUPANCY TRENDS

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

triad

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL PRICING TRENDS

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

2012-13 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT

UC/Leasing

2012

Planned –

2013 – 2014

Proposed –

ON-HOLD

MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units

Hills 11 3,333 19 3,328 3 640

Pinellas 3 639 10 2,672 1 326

Pasco 2 558 5 1,963 2 540

Polk 0 0 1 240 0 0

Manatee 1 272 5 1,225 2 772

Sarasota 0 0 4 998 0 0

Bay Area 17 4,802 44 10,426 8 2,278

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

BAY AREA PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PINELLAS PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PASCO PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

POLK PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND

NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES

OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND

SUPPLY LACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING

INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS

CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN

THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY

CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDSHIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTCHASE IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS & DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW

PIN CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - LIMITED NEW SITES FOR CONS POTENTIAL

PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW

POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES & NO RENT GROWTH

MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG

SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN-NORTH PORT- UNIV PKWY – MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE

GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING BUT SLOWED BY FINANCING – DEMAND CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Sponsored by:

18th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.