Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.

20th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

“Let It Be, Let It Be..”Positive Performance Trends Occurring

While New Construction Continues Vigorously

Tampa Westshore Marriott HotelNovember 20th , 2014

Sponsored by:

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

BAAA TAMPA BAY DEVELOPERS FORUM

HISTORICAL PROGRAM TITLES 2005 - 2014 2010

"READY….SET….GO !!! THE MULTIFAMILY MARKET IS COMING BACK"

2011"THE MULTIFAMILY MARKET - TODAY AND

IN THE FUTURE"

2012"NEW CONSTRUCTION RETURNS"

2013"LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL - BUY IT,

BUILD IT, OR REHAB IT"

2014"LET IT BE………LET IT BE"

"POSITIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS IN OCCUPANCY & RENT GROWTH WHILE NEW CONSTRUCTION CONTINUES VIGOROUSLY"

2004"WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES"

2005"WILL IT BE THE AGE of AQUAIUS or THE

TWIGHLIGHT ZONE"

2006"CHANGES IN LATITUDE & CHANGES IN ATTITUDE - HOW TO MOVE FORWARD"

2007"BACK TO THE FUTURE…

"AVAILABILITY ... AFFORDABILITY ... CHALLENGES IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER“

2008"NEW CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING

WORLD“

2009"GETTING BACK IN THE GAME"

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

OCCUPANCY TRENDS

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL PRICING TRENDS

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

2014-2015 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT

UC/Leasing Planned/Proposed

2013 2014 2014 – 2015 2015 – 2016

MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units

Hillsborough 13 2,829 18 4,760 6 1,691 1 350

Pinellas 12 2,172 12 3,289 9 2,252 0 0

Pasco 4 856 5 906 2 550 2 559

Polk 0 0 0 0 2 547 2 465

Manatee 2 567 4 1,198 2 482 0 0

Sarasota 1 326 0 0 3 676 2 397

Bay Area 32 6,750 39 10,153 24 6,198 7 1,771

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PINELLAS PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PASCO PIPELINE

1 2

3 4 1

3

2

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MANATEE/SARASOTA PIPELINE

1

3

2

2 2

1

3

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MULTIFAMILY TRENDSTAMPA BAY AREA

HIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS BEGINNING TO SHRINK/DECLINE - BRANDON, WESTCHASE, WESTSHORE & DOWNTOWN ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTSHORE – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE

PIN SOME CONS IN GATEWAY, CARRILON & URBAN ST PETE – MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE - URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN MOST ACTIVE

PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s TRINITY & SO CO & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW-AS LAND DIMINISHES IN H & P MOVE NORTH

POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME

MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS MODERATE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD H EXPANSION & PIN BUILDOUT – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 – AFFORD IN CITY LOCATIONS - MARKET RECOVERY STRONG

SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURN DWNTWN & I-75 CORRIDOR – MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE – OCC & RENT GROWTH STRONG

GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURN STRONG – DEMAND STILL OUTPACING SUPPLY - OCC RECOVERY TO 95%-97% & ANNUAL RENTAL REVENU GROWTH 4%-6% NOW – GOOD OPP FOR 24-48 MONTHS – MOSTLY URBAN & SOME SUBURBAN.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND

NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES

OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND

SUPPLY SUPPLY NOT KEEPING PACE WITH DEMAND – NEW CONSTRUCTION VIGOROUS – SOME SUBURBAN (BRANDON) UP - SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING FOR LIFESTYLE & AFFORDABILITY & CONSUMER CHOICE – BAY AREA NEEDING 5K TO 6K PER YEAR

INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS – RENTING MORE AFFORD THAN OWNERSHIP – OWNERSHIP ADVANTAGES NOT YET RETURNED

CONSUMER ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN BEHAVIORS DESIRED CHOICE INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES–BETTER LOCATIONS

FOR RENTASL – LESS COMMUTING

THEORY DEMAND METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.

THANK YOU

Sponsored by:

20th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.