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Belgium Retail Market Overview and Trends
2016
Cushman & Wakefield
Table of Contents
2
1. Socio-economic indicators
2. Retail letting market
3. Retail investment market
4. Trends & Future
5. Conclusion
Cushman & Wakefield
Confidence indices continue slight increase
• Consumers are growing more confident regarding macroeconomic conditions in Belgium, with strong expectations regarding the global economic climate of the country.
• Business confidence also increased to reach its highest level since July 2011.
Consumer confidence and Business confidence indices
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Consumer confidence Business confidence
3
Demographic trends in Belgium A strong growth, mainly concentrated in the biggest cities of the country
• Between 2015 and 2030, the population should increase from 11.200.000 to 11.940.000 habitants, representing de 6,6% (+ 740.000 inhab.).
• Globally in 2030 (compared to 2014): o The growth will be higher in Brussels (+ 129.000 inhab ; + 10%) o Than in Flanders (+ 398.000 inhab. ; + 5%) and o In Wallonia (+ 267.000 inhab. ; + 7%).
4
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
10
10,5
11
11,5
12
12,5
13
13,5
Total population Brussels Flanders Wallonia
2014 2030 2060
Brussels 1,163,000 1,292,000
(+ 129,000) 1,478,000
(+ 315,000)
Flanders 6,410,000 6,808,000
(+ 398,000) 7,317,000
(+ 907,000)
Wallonia 3,576,000 3,843,000
(+ 267,000) 4,297,000
(+ 541,000)
Population in Belgium (million inhab.) & Demographic growth by region (Base=100 in 2014) Population by region (million inhab.)
Cushman & Wakefield
The household disposable and consumption
• The average household disposable income has started to rise again in 2014 and should continue to increase in the coming years.
• The disposable income is more important in Flanders and should rise at a faster rate than in Brussels.
• The Belgian consumption growth (between 2008 & 2015) vs. EURO area is higher
Disposable income per inhabitant, 000s EUR
17
17,5
18
18,5
19
19,5
20
20,5
21
21,5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Brussels Flanders Wallonia
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Retail Letting Market
Cushman & Wakefield
Occupier market activity Take-up
DISTRIBUTION OF THE RETAIL STOCK IN BELGIUM
[PERCENTAGE]
[PERCENTAGE]
[PERCENTAGE]
High streets Retail warehousing Shopping centres
18,500,000 sq m
NUMBER OF LETTING TRANSACTIONS BY RETAIL SEGMENT
342 356 323 363 305 344 418 426
147 157 99
220 229 179
156 185 148
200
135
127 101 140
231 153
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Main Street Retail warehousing Shopping Centre
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Cushman & Wakefield
Occupier market activity Most active retailers 2015
Brand Number of transactions 2015
Basic Fit 10
AS Adventure 9
H&M 9
Kruidvat 9
Action 8
Albert Heijn 8
Rituals 8
Flying Tiger 6
Hunkemöller 6
Grand Optical 5
JBC 5
Leonidas 5
Okaïdi 5
Di 4
River Woods 4
Wibra 4
ZEB 4
8
Cushman & Wakefield
Prime rents Main streets
• Prime rents in top cities are picking up again
0 eur/m²/yr
200 eur/m²/yr
400 eur/m²/yr
600 eur/m²/yr
800 eur/m²/yr
1.000 eur/m²/yr
1.200 eur/m²/yr
1.400 eur/m²/yr
1.600 eur/m²/yr
1.800 eur/m²/yr
2.000 eur/m²/yr
Main street prime rents(€/square meter/year for prime shops of 150 m² and 6 m frontage)
Brussels - Rue Neuve
Antwerpen - Meir
Gent - Veldstraat
Brugge - Steenstraat
Liege - Vinave d'lle
Hasselt - Hoogstraat
Brussels - Avenue Louise
Sources: Cushman & Wakefield
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Cushman & Wakefield
Out-of-Town retail rents Belgium
0 eur/m²/yr
20 eur/m²/yr
40 eur/m²/yr
60 eur/m²/yr
80 eur/m²/yr
100 eur/m²/yr
120 eur/m²/yr
140 eur/m²/yr
160 eur/m²/yr
180 eur/m²/yr
200 eur/m²/yr
O ut of Town Retail prime rents(€/square meter/year for prime shops of 1000 m²)
Brussels - Rue de Stalle
Antwerpen - Bredabaan
Antwerpen - Boomsteenweg
Liege - Rocourt
Gent - Kortrijksesteenweg
Brugge - Maalsesteenweg
Sources: Cushman & Wakefield
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Cushman & Wakefield
Prime rents Shopping centres
• Stable rents in the top shopping centres
0 eur/m²/yr
200 eur/m²/yr
400 eur/m²/yr
600 eur/m²/yr
800 eur/m²/yr
1.000 eur/m²/yr
1.200 eur/m²/yr
1.400 eur/m²/yr
1.600 eur/m²/yr
Shopping centers prime rents(€/square meter/year for prime shops of 150 m² and 6 m frontage)
Antwerpen - Wijnegem Shopping Bruxelles - Woluwe Shopping
Bruxelles - City 2 Sint-Niklaas - Waasland Shopping
Bruxelles - Westland Shopping Liege - Belle Ile
LLN - L'esplanade Liège - Médiacité
Sources: Cushman & Wakefield
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Cushman & Wakefield
Belgian shopping centres Belgium market has a low proportion of shopping centres / inhabitants
Source: Cushman & Wakefield,
Shopping Centre Development Report Europe GLA/1,000 population
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Serbia Bosnia Herz.
Greece Ukraine Bulgaria Belgium
Russia Turkey
Romania Hungary Germany
Malta Slovakia
Czech Rep. Italy
Poland Spain
France United Kingdom
Portugal Croatia
EU-27 Average Latvia
Lithuania Denmark
Austria Switzerland
Ireland Netherlands
Finland Slovenia Sweden Estonia
Luxembourg Norway
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Cushman & Wakefield
Vacancy Source: Locatus
• Vacancy close to 0% in the Big Six of the country
• Retail in the secondary cities is suffering, especially the most local ones • Due to the market evolution
Vacancy per segment, 2009-2015
13
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Retail Investment Market
Cushman & Wakefield
Investment market activity Record year for retail investment
• Professional investment volumes Belgium in MEUR
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Office Retail Industrial Other
15
Cushman & Wakefield
Developer1%
Institutional57%
Private15%
Professional12%
REIT15%
Developer Institutional Private Professional REIT
Investment market activity Record year for all retail segments
• Sales of retail property is booming ! • Inflow of foreign capital growing. • Majority of investors are institutional ones.
235138
291
53164 229 179
414247
552181 339
234
117
188178 325
320
271
420
126
252 160
2330
135
38550
113
1,183
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shopping Centre
Out of Town Retail
Main Street
RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUME BELGIUM (€ M)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
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Cushman & Wakefield
Investment market Yield evolution, Main Streets
• Record-sharp yields
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
Supeprime High street High street Shopping centre Out of Town Retail
PRIME RETAIL YIELDS BY SEGMENT
17
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Trends & Future
Cushman & Wakefield
Larger shops Flagship developments
• Also inner city retail needs larger format for anchor stores
Le Toison d’Or, Brussels uptown
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Cushman & Wakefield
Larger shops Flagship developments
• Also inner city retail needs larger format for anchor stores
Primark Molenpoort Hasselt, 5800 m²
Inno Galeria, Kon. Albertstraat Hasselt, 8000 m² 20
Cushman & Wakefield
Less shops, more retail space Average space / shop +10% in 5 years time
• More small shops closing down
• Average size of shop in Belgium in 2015 : 210 sq m à +10% compared to 2010
Uniqlo Meir Antwerp, opened 2015, before: 1483 sq.m. now : 1643 sq.m.
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Cushman & Wakefield
UPGRADING RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET • Higher quality formats
HIGH STREETS Toison d’Or | Brussels uptown
SHOPPING CENTRES Médiacité | Liège
OUT OF TOWN RETAIL
Bulthaup | Zaventem
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Cushman & Wakefield
• Upgrade of architecture
Trends in Out of Town Retail
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• Brands upgrading: H&M, C&A, Lola & Liza, Veritas ….
Trends in Out of Town Retail
Delhaize Quai de Rome, Liège
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Cushman & Wakefield
NEWCOMERS / NEW CONCEPTS
Sub-brands H&M (& Other stories, COS, Cheap Monday,
H&M Home), Mango (HE, Violeta), Etam (Undiz)
Concept Stores Smets, Urban Outfitters, YOUR, Essentiel, Irina
Khä
Flagship / Megastores
M&S, Orchestra, Apple
Single-brand stores
Uniqlo, Desigual, Essentiel, Abercrombie &
Fitch,…
Upscale & Luxury
Anne Fontaine, Montblanc, Twin-Set,
Paule Ka, Michael Kors, The Kooples
Pop-up stores Chronostock, …
NEWCOMERS NEW CONCEPTS
Trends in Retail
25 Less barriers (on markets and sectors)
Cushman & Wakefield
BIG PROJECTS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BRUSSELS
Uplace Machelen
80.000 m² retail + leisure
Expected: 2019
Docks Bruxsel
Equilis Project
49.000 m²
Opening : October 2016
Mall of Europe (NEO) at Heysel
80,000 m² retail
Expected: 2021 - 2023
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Cushman & Wakefield
• Les Grands Prés, Mons
• Rive Gauche, Charleroi
• La Strada, La Louvière
• Cristal Park, Seraing
• L’Esplanade, L-L-Neuve
• Au Fil de l’Eau, Verviers
Shopping projects Wallonia
27
Cushman & Wakefield
• Quartier Bleu Hasselt
• Dok-Noord Gent
Shopping projects Flanders
28
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• E-commerce, the end of physical retail?
Trends & Future in Retail
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Fashion most popular in e-commerce
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Cushman & Wakefield
§ E-commerce still has to prove its longer term profitability (difficulty of high number of returns; ‘Zalando parties’ in Germany!)
§ Delivery, the last meter is the most difficult one § Yes and no: brands need flagship visibility with physical stores § On-line players: need for physical stores and delivery § E-Commerce also needs bricks (ex: Cool Blue)
Is e-commerce a threat?
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Cushman & Wakefield
Overview & Trends in Belgian Retail
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Conclusion
• Stable leasing market, investment is booming
• Rents slightly picking up again in top main streets
• Vacancy grows, especially in secondary streets and small towns
• E-commerce has impact but no real threat for top physical retail
• Demographic growth and consumers demand more retail space
• Brands & architecture upgrading
33
Jean Baheux Partner Retail Services +32 (0)2 546 08 61 [email protected]
Jef Van Doorslaer Director Research department +32 (0)2 510 08 18 [email protected]
Céderic Van Meerbeeck Head of Belgium Research Research department +32 (0)2 629 02 86 [email protected]