best of blog posts part 2
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areFL Horse Racing Softwest of the Blog Part 2 & Betting AdvantageB
4/5/2011
FrontlinePublishing
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Welcome back to the FL Horse Racing Softwares Best Blog Posts Part 2.
The purpose of this free PDF giveaway is to bundle together some of my most helpful horse
racing blog posts which you can read at will without having to go back to the blog. The posts
themselves offer additional horse racing information which is not always accessible to the
everyday bettor. Ive also include a section for newbies, this is my Betting Advantage PDF
which shows how important the basics are and how to avoid mistakes.
Ive compiled a list of the headlined quotes from all the current blog posts as a way of
quickly addressing common race issues. Mainly as a point of reference to any form study you
may be doing.
Page 3-9, Class Act To Follow by Ross Turner in: Nov 12 - When looking at any horserace we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One of these horses will win the race
The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races
From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like
something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler
Page 10-13, Focus On Fitness by Ross Turner Dec 13 - Fit and race fit are twocompletely different things
Page 14-17, Punter to Professional by Ross Turner Jan 13 Is one month really longenough to get used to using the FL software? Thinking about how you cans find profitable
ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you are successful
using it already or not.
Page 18-26, Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide by Ross Turner March 4th Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and select
the appropriate row from the table
Page 27-30, Bonus: Betting Advantage Planning, Ground Conditions, Patience, Form,and Consistency is the Key, Distance, Weight, & Discipline
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ClassActToFollowby Ross Turner in: Nov 12
Friday already..!
Is it me or do the weeks just seem to fly by at the moment, Im constantly reminded by my
elders that as the years tick by you notice time seems to move a great deal faster however you
seem to move a great deal slower, Im hoping its just the cold weather.
Maybe this is another reason why some people just want to get to the nitty gritty of form
reading and really just apply a few methods to enable them to quickly differentiate between
possible selection.
I do think that sometimes over study can play apart in what you are actually trying to achieve
as a form reader and the notion of form reading perfection seems unattainable for the average
racing enthusiast. My point here is to make sure everyone not only understand what we are
trying to do when looking at a horses chances within a race, but also that you are able to
apply some of the reasons and methods laid out within this blog. By not only encouraging
you to introduce some of the methods into your own selection process, but to do so quickly
and easily but most importantly, effectively.
When looking at any horse race we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One
of these horses will win the race
Now Im sure a few of you may be saying, Yes but what about a dead heat?
Lets not worry about that as the odds for this happening in the race you are dealing with are
somewhat remote, and Ive only ever been involved in a handful of races when this affected
my selection. Even with a dead heat this is certainly better than the horse finishing runner up.
Now Im certain someone will dig out the facts for dead heats for this year and last and I
know Ive read it somewhere already but I cant remember off the top of my head today.
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Class Act To Follow
Watching and taking note of how a close race or a weak affair finished can give you a great
insight in the structure of the race and the horses performing within it. Especially if you
following a particular horses progress.
As we all know Handicap races are supposed to finish with all the horses finishing together,
at least that what the Handicapper is trying to predict when handing out penalties.
Unfortunately certain aspects of todays elements, horses form past or present as well as any
current fitness issues allow little chance of this actually happening. Usually what happens is
that the horses running in Handicap races are just as strung out as in all other types of races.
So how do we start to predict todays performances, well you should normally start by
looking at the figures that todays horses have ran previously. In general when horses runwell they receive good finishing form numbers and when they dont they receive bad ones.
This is taking recent form into account only and we all know by now that there is more to this
than first meet the betting eye.
The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races
There are many reasons why a horse may not run to its recent form numbers, such as
unsuitable distance, wrong type of track, draw biases, pace problems, trouble getting an open
run, wrong ground conditions, class, and the list goes on. However what you need to do at
this early stage of the selection process is to determine which horses seem capable under
reasonable circumstances, of winning the race.
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Class Act To Follow Some races are easier than others to qualify and the reason for this has to be the quality of the
race as well as the history of the horses competing.
What to look for;
One way to determine the competition is to follow the Official Rating of the top 3 to 4
runners within todays race. If the top rated horse for example is running of an official rating
of 79, and the other three horses have exceeded or been around this number recently and
nobody else within the race has beaten a 79 rated horse, its not likely someone will pull off asurprise. The simple way to do this is look at all horses last runs (if won) and see what type of
competition they ran against in their last race, the Racing Post history will give you all the
Official Ratings of horses it ran against previously. At this stage of the process youre not
really evaluating form but simply getting a feel for each horse and its ability.
Race Class;
From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like
something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler
The argument for horses chances of winning when dropping back in Class than whenstepping up in Class gives a good indication of what to look for.
There are several reasons for this;
1: The Easier Pace Of Lower Class Races.
2: The Quality Of The Opposition, (some of which may be moving up in class to compete).
3: The Fact That A Horse Is Often Dropped In Class After A Dull Effort (and then it
produces its usually effort in milder competition.
4: The Previous Class Not Suiting The Horse (especially after a long layoff as well as having
a fitness issues).
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Class Act To Follow
Prize money in Handicap races is the bread and butter for any stable throughout the season,
so what affect does this have on Class?
Quality of the field can be determined by the prize money on offer, understanding the Class
hierarchy within a particular track will go a long way to point you in the direction of potential
selections.
Ask yourself this; is the quality of the competition in a 2500 race for Non Handicaps at
Kempton tougher than or not as tough as a 4000 race for Non Handicap types at Southwell,what kind of field is attracted to smaller prize money races? Especially if some of the runners
were previously racing for 6500 prize money races a few months ago.
When horses go up or down in Class they also go in and out of form, as a rule of thumb the
higher Class races present the horse with a greater number of potential race rivals. Whenlooking at Class past and present of a potential selection I would suggest you look at how
successful the horse has been in the past in relation to todays Class, rather than noting that
the horse has ran in this Class but did nothing.
If a horse has shown in the past that it can compete in this Class then there is a positive that
the horse may repeat that run again today. Look for a horse which has at least placed in
todays Class, over similar trip and ground conditions.
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Class Act To Follow Truly Dropping Back in Class;
For example, lets say Horse A wins and places in four races over Class 4 conditions, one
win, one second place and two third places. The trainer then decides to step Horse A up to
Class 2 competition where the horse finishes 11th.
The trainer then decides to enter the horse in a Class 3 race to hopefully improve the horses
chances. The question we now need to ask ourselves is does this mean now that the horse has
dropped back in Class? And the answer is this, well no not really.
Let me explain, due to the level of the horses success we know his best performances have
come at Class 4 where we can expect him to give us a run for our money. His performances
at Class 4 are proven; his performances are not proven in Class 2 races where he managed to
achieve nothing apart from make up the numbers. He is not even proven at Class 3 where he
still might be simply outclassed.
Sometimes its difficult to gauge Class levels and the greater numbers of horses you have in
the race where the trainer has moved them through this Class shifting process. Its worth
paying attention when the more respected and higher percentage 20% plus strike rate trainers
move their horses up or down in Class. Again a big drop in Class usually means a drop inconfidence or the desire to offload a particular horse; however a step up can indicate the
opposite.
Dont get this confused with the normal trainer types as this only really applies to the trainers
right at the top of their game. By including this point Im by no means trying to confuse you
with the step up or drop back in Class overall.
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Class Act To FollowPoint to Ponder;
Having horses that have at least 8 races minimum gives you some history to work with, the
more the better. If all the horses in a particular race have a similar level of history then it may
be easier to work through the pack.
While recent form is important , any horse which has shown itself to have previous Class
form must be taken into account and monitored respectively as there is a chance the horse
may very well return to its previous racing ability.
If the horse was competing successfully 8 months ago then missed the next few months for
whatever reason, then came back on its first start only to produce nothing like its past form,
this could be seen as expected.
It may be that the horse simply needs to attain a certain level of race fitness again to return to
its former success despite its disappointing first return run. Remember recent form and past
performances need to be taken equally into account and their merits awarded the relevant
approval.
Finally;
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Class Act To Follow I would suggest when doing this type of pre race analysis, if 2 or even 3 horses are standing
out above the rest of the field and you cannot really separate one horse from another, my
advice is to back them all.
Now you can play around with the staking here if you wish, but in terms of trying to find the
race leaders you should never really have more than 3 outright backing selections in any
given race unless the race is a really tight affair in which case it may be wise to avoid such
races.
Its always better to spread or simply Dutch your bets rather than leave one selection out of
the fold only to see him win by a nose. Especially if you are getting started with racing,
dutching can be an ideal opportunity for some welcomed early success. You never know
you may even find yourself involved with a dead heat.
Have A Great Weekend,
Ross
p.s, I have no idea where this bear race photo was taken and which sick bastard thought this
was a good idea, you certainly wouldnt think the Queen would be interested in sitting thoughthe full Race Card. Who knows what the hell is going through the bears mind, If I win this
next time its Ascot. Answers in a comment please
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FocusOnFitnessbyRossTurnerDec13
A Ferrari in the showroom cannot out run a Volvo thats on the road. Therefore the search for
horses with good speed power and class credentials must be treated by how they appear on
form.
Instead of simply betting the horses with the lowest form figures, you should start to look for
horses that appear to be rounding into condition. Sharp fit horses often out ran their latest
form numbers while classy animals whose form was suspect often ran worse than projected.
Some consensuses on the characteristics of horses that are considered to be in form are
among the positives;
The horse finished within five lengths of the winner last time out in its regular class.
The horse ran at or near the front of the pack until at least the final furlong, or the
horse passed several rivals on the run in.
The horse has been working regularly, with no gaps in the fitness lines; this is based on
how the horse has been training at its stable.
The horse shows no gaps in his racing entries. If he usually races every four weeks,
make sure he does not suddenly show an 8 week gap.
The horse was overmatched last time out but ran his usually mark. The horse may
have ran against better classed opposition, was the horse stepped up in class or was the
race a tougher than the usual affair.
To be considered to be in form, a horse should have accomplished at least one of these points
above. Conversely a horse that has done little but run around in the back of the pack, never
really making a move, can generally be quickly dismissed as a contender without a massivedrop in class.
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Focus On Fitness
An exception is a turf horse that got trapped behind a slow pace and came home in his usual
quick fashion. Other indicators of possible poor form include the additional of front wraps, a
class drop after a win or a double or triple drop after an in the money finish. A switch of
stables from a top trainer to a lower grade stable especially if accompanied by a class drop,
frequent breaks in both the training and racing patterns a too fat or too skinny appearance on
race day and a sudden lack of early speed from a horse who previously was known for quick
starts.
Fit and race fit, are two completely different things
Lets take, boxing for an example, a fighter coming back from an injury or after a fight at a
higher level may still be fit in a general but will usually schedule a number of less classy
opponents to give him a chance to get his skills and ring fitness back up to scratch, also
confidence is a big part of the winning process, it allows a mental edge to develop.
Similar in horse racing, from a horses perspective getting its head in front shows a will to
compete, dig deep and ultimately win. Its more difficult for a horse to do this against similar
class opposition if the horse is just back from a lay off or back from injury. You may also
hear about trainers having their horses in for breathing operations, this is quite common and
even the mighty Denman, was whisked into the theatre to have a procedure. This is quitestandard as far as horse operations go, certainly compared to having a nose job..!
Horses use a great deal of stamina, during a race and their muscles require a great deal of fuel
and preparation to allow the horse to run to a very high standard. If they are rushed back into
the mix to quickly this may actually break them down rather than help them to recover at a
steady pace and gain there fitness levels back previously.
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Focus On Fitness
You may see a horse brought back lightly raced over the next two or three runs to make sure
its progression is steady. Dont expect a horse which has been off the course for 6-12 months
to suddenly put in a winning performance.
Like everything to do with horse racing there are exceptions to the rule, such as jumps or flat
specialist horses which are proven to come back strong after a long season layoff, this is
usually down to the stable been able to deliver these horses to the track in a top physical
condition.
It is down to the trainers skill and knowledge of the individual horse they are working with
to determine when the horse needs a rest and when it needs another race or two to get back
into winning contention.
A racehorse is a finely tuned animal, its nature needs to be assessed and its fitness program
like any other athlete mapped out and cycled to allow it to peak at the right time for the right
race. It cannot achieve constant form figures of first places forever. They will be times when
you can clearly see a drop off in form coming or when you notice how a horse has seemed to
increase in performance and distance over the same course, distance, against weaker and then
stronger competition.
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Focus On Fitness Sometimes you will just know, and I realise this sounds slightly mystic ball, however the
more your involved with racing the more you have your nose to the ground as it were the
more likely you will be to spot opportunities when they arise.
Usually these are easier to spot in the bigger meetings and all the top horses have prepared
for one particular race and a quick look at recent performances can be a great view point to
find a winner. However on a daily or weekly basis there are a number of points which you
can easily apply to your form reading capabilities.
For now I just want to leave you all with a guide to what to start to look for when
making fitness decisions;
Check the horses last Race Comments, to see how the horse ran in its last race.
Look for comments such as if a horse finished strongly or slowed down 1f from home, if
the horse was one paced or chased the leader home.
This can be a good indication to whether the horse is running into form, so make sure you
check the last race and look for improvements in finishing positions if the horse ran the same
class distance, ground conditions as last time.
Go back and look through the horses history to see if any patterns seem to match from the
previous season. Form figures will give you a good idea as to how the horse performs from
race to race after a layoff.
Points to consider;
Flat Races Winning Percentages.
86 % of horses returning on the flat within a 28 day period won their races.
Jumps Races Winning Percentages
73 % of horses returning within a 21 day period won their races.
So backing anything returning after 28 days must be treated with caution. Note only ignore
these rules when races such as Group 1 & 2 are considered. This is because the top horses
and a four week form cycle do not apply.
Talk Soon
Ross
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PuntertoProfessionalin30DaysbyRossTurner Jan 13th
Is one month really long enough to get used to using the FL software? Now Im not just
saying this to make sure I get additional months subscription out of new members. Im asking
the question which you should be asking yourselves before you actually press the "Add to
Cart" button next time around.
If anything is worth investing in then surely you need to allow that investment, whether its
time, money or skill to develop and then flourish. Of course along the way there will be
errors, frustrations, highs and low, and maybe some nail biting thrown in for good measure,
but life is not all about the end product its about how we get there. Sometimes you can be so
blinded by the end result that you miss the actual ride.
Think of it this way, how many driving lessons did you take before you took your Driving
Test, 10, 20, 80? you see for some people it may have been a few, for others a lot more. We
all are good at certain skills and not so good at others, some men can iron a crisp white shirt,for others it end up looking like an old sock thats been lying at the bottom of the washing
basket for a week. The question you need to ask yourself is; are you giving yourself enough
practises to pass before you quit?
How long did it actually take you to go from Newbie, to Novice to Advanced in your driving
career? Im guessing a while.
Are you been too hard on yourself when it comes to expecting instant success? Are you
blaming other people, the weather, lady luck or the missus? If you already call the missus
lady luck then good on ya
Either way Im here as youre lets call me your assistant. I dont like the word teacher
due to the fact it reminds me of school to much which in turn reminds me of boring lessons of
little interest on my part apart from Maths and Art, maybe some English from time to time.
I certainly dont mind doing all I can to help guide you along the road to seeing success at the
end of it. Unlike some people within this market who keep the mystic ball stashed in a
cupboard at the bottom of the stairs carefully wrapped in a Tescos shopping bag. For me if I
have extra information which I think might benefit some or all then Im going to share it with
you. It does not cost me anything apart from maybe a little time which I could be spending
practising ironing my shirts. To actually collect all the information together and make it read
able is a small price to pay on my behalf.
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Punter to Professional in 30 Days You see Ive been giving a great deal of thought lately to how members use the software and
how they consume the information they are presented with, and I think I can improve a great
deal of what we are trying to do. By doing this Im sure I can get you to where you want to be
in terms of sports betting. How Im going to do this is not important at the moment but rest
assured I will do it and soon.
Thinking about how you cans
find profitable ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you
are successful using it already or not. Identifying areas you are not successful in is of less
importance than areas which you are successful in. This may sound a little strange so let me
explain.
Most footballers have one foot which they either prefer or in most cases can only use. Now
what they tend to focus on is making their preferred foot better by practising every day. Now
other footballers maybe adept at using both feet, we call these show offs, however just
because one foot is better than the other doesnt mean the other is any less important. It also
doesnt mean that there is no reason why you cannot practice with the less favoured foot to
bring it up to a standard to almost equal your preferred foot.
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Punter to Professional in 30 Days For those who think Ive finally lost the plot its really quite simple. Work on bringing you
current or favoured method up to scratch, to achieve a higher level of success, refine it, make
it greater, then once you succeed in doing this you can work on developing other weaker
areas until you have something else in your armoury to fall back on. Once you manage to do
the hard work the first time around there is no reason why you cannot do it again and again.
Once you get to the stage where you can use both skill sets then youre in a much greater
position compared to the average punter out there.
FL Created A Form Reading Tool, So Use It
I love getting emails from members, especially the ones who ask questions or want to learn
more. I must admit within the FL members group we have what I like to call the FL core.
Core members are something of a rare bread these days, I hear little from them, they are a
small yet solid group, they keep themselves to themselves, but they are always watching,
always listening and always up to date. They log into the Software almost every day (and yes
I can check) and most of them have been with me for a long time. They understand racing
and they know what suits their particular race needs.
The reason I mention them is for this reason, I admire them, and the reason is because they
help me to understand which direction I need to take in order to protect the needs of currentor future members. These core members didnt just wake up one day and start betting at the
bookies, actually maybe they did but Im guessing whichever way they got started they did it
for one if not two reasons;
Reason Number 1: To Win Money.
Reason Number 2: For A Love Of Racing.
Being passionate about your chosen career, sport or hobby will get you a long way even if
youre missing a few key ingredients, mix in some skill and a will to learn and youre
certainly on the right path. You see these core members didnt suddenly become advanced
bettors, it took them years not weeks or months. I myself am in my 8th year and still learning
still developing, looking for new ways to develop my skill set to find other methods within
methods to explore what others may have missed.
My point is, if youre in racing or any sports betting for the fact you must win money and
quickly then please leave now. Its not possible, maybe dropping that extra Christmas weight
and becoming a Jockey would suit you best. But if your here to learn and to fine tune your
current skill set no matter how little your experience, then you have come to the right place
and without a doubt 2011 will be the year you finally get the answers youve been looking
for.
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Punter to Professional in 30 Days Having the software or any other product for a month and either giving up or simply saying
its not working for me sometimes needs to be questioned, is this a true reflection on the
product or are you just looking for the next new shiny toy in the box?
Members use the software differently with different
results, there are no right or wrong answers, its intended to suit every ones needs, within this
flexibility lies its strength.
One of the key factors here is that having a tool at your disposal which not only saves time
and effort but also shows you the horses with the best ratings figures in a particular race,
there past and current patterns, there statistics over filters and conditions has to be looked at
in greater detail, first glance simply isnt enough.
Start thinking outside the box and great things can happen. Racing is not just about winning
and losing, it has to be about so much more. Its just not as clear cut or ready to be defined as
two opposite ends of the spectrum.
Let me know what you think, Im always happy to hear from you
Talk Soon
Ross
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QuickFireWinorLoseRacingGuidebyRossTurnerMar 14th
I had an interesting email from a member last
week regarding historical data and stats which he uses daily within his betting. He was asking
me a few questions over Email regarding different ways in which to use the software. A
couple of days later he sent me what he had put together.
From time to time he sends me his betting thoughts and a few ideas he is having about
racing/systems/strategies. I think he likes to run things by me so I can give my seal ofapproval, which I certainly dont mind doing as long as I have the free time to do so. Anyway
we got chatting and he follows up with types of races and favourite winning percentages in
relation to his betting activity. He uses the software ratings to whittle down his selection
process by mainly using a table showing past data of races showing favourites, non favourites
etc. Depending on the table he would look for laying or backing opportunities within the
software. He basically structures his betting to the table and eliminates selections which dont
fit the past data. Sound simple enough right?
So I asked him if he would mind me sharing his thoughts and finding with the rest of the blog
readers and he said of course, but dont mention my name..! Why not Brian, I asked ? he
said in case my wife reads it and shell know what Ive been doing, instead of walking herdogs and looking after the mother in law while the wife does nightshift! After laughing out
loud I agreed. To be honest he would not be the first member Ive had who hid his betting
activity/hobbies from the missus. Live and let live thats my motto, well one of them at least.
Ok so lets get into Brians stuff so you can use it possibly to achieve a greater strike rate
within your own betting or even to point you in a different direction all together, who knows,
but its certainly something you should be considering if youre not already doing so.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide RacesTypesTheGoodtheBad&theUgly
Our greatest asset apart from having software do much of the gruntwork for us is our betting bank. The way we use it and protect it is vital as without great care
and attention our betting activities will simply cease. So how do we go about doing such a
thing, well firstly you must ensure that you use every percentage of your bank in an effective
professional manner and dont abuse it. One way of protecting your bank is to carefully select
the races that you are involved with, whether that is on a daily or weekly basis.
As anyone who has tried his/her hand in horse racing the first thing you notice is the huge
amount of variables associated with a horse. Examples of these variables can range from,
recent form, past form, ground conditions, distance, course, jockey and trainer stats, the list
goes on.
Some variables have a greater influence on the outcome of a race whereas other variables
have far less of an effect. If we look at three variables in particular, these variables are found
to have a relatively greater influence on the outcome of a horse race within a race.
Race Type; That The Horse Is Competing Within.
Number of Runners Within The Race.
Odds Of The Selection.
Let look at and consider the types of races and the number of runners/odds of the selection.
As a general rule of thumb on average only 35% of favourites win their races.
There are certain types of races in which favourites perform much better. There are also
certain types of races in which they tend to perform far worse. By using this type of
information we can point towards the right direction as to which race types are more
beneficial to the type of betting you are involved with, whether its Backing, Laying or
Dutching etc.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites in various race types:
As you can see by the chart the types of races with have an above average favourite strike
rate (35%) are shown in the last third of the chart in silver. The above table results relate to
races which were run in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.
Ok so we now have some additional data so how do we make the best use of it..? Well, that
depends on what you are trying to achieve. If a selection system identifies favourites which
are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race
types which are shown in (Silver)since their strike rates are above the average (35%).
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide This provides our selections with the best winning opportunities. Those types of races which
are elsewhere on the chart should be avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in
these types of races, are below the average for winning favourites. This provides our
selections with the worst winning opportunities statistically.
Ifyouareworkingwithaselectionsystemwhichidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,thereforeopposingfavouritesyoushouldconcentrateonthoseselections
thatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninblueuptoandincludingNationalHunt
Flat,as
the
graph
clearly
shows
favourites
which
run
is
these
types
of
races
have
strike
rates
thatarebelowtheaverage(35%).
Simply put this means that race favourites are more unlikely to win. This provides non-
favourites with the best winning opportunities.
Those types of races which are shown in Silverare best avoided since the strike rates of
favourites, running in those types of races, are above the average. This provides non-
favourites with the worst winning opportunities.
Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrate
on
those
selections
that
are
running
in
race
types
which
are
shown
in
blue
since
theirstrikeratesarebelowtheaverage(35%).
This provides selections with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are
shown in Silver are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of
races, are significantly higher than normal. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing
opportunities.
Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrateonthoseselectionsthatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninSilver
sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninthosetypesofracesareabovetheaverage
(35%).
This provides non-favourites with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which
are shown in blue type are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those
types of races, are below the average. This provides non-favourites with the best winning
opportunities and hence, the worst losing opportunities.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide
To clear up any possible confusion regarding the above backing or laying favourites or non
favourites, below you will find a very helpful table which you can use easily to spot potential
back or lay opportunities within any race type you may currently be looking into.
All you need to do when using the table below is to select the type of race your selection is
running in, then chose between the back or lay, favourite or non favourite. If the selected
element of the table contains a (Yes), then the bet has a better than average chance of
succeeding (winning). If the selected element of the table contains a No, then the bet has a
worse than average chance of succeeding (losing) and is best avoided.
For Example;
Lets suppose that a selection system that identifies horses that are to be backed to win has
identified the favourite in a Novice Chase. From the table, we can see that, if we look along
the (Novice Chase) row and look at the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it
contains a (Yes). Therefore, the bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact,
if we take a look at the first graph in this post, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in
Novice Chase races is 48%.
Another Example;
Lets suppose that a laying selection system has identified a non-favourite in a Selling
Handicap. From the table below, it can be seen that, if we look along the (Selling Handicap)
row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No).
Therefore, our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a
look at the first graph in this post, you can see that the strike rate of favourites running in
Selling Handicaps is only 22%. Therefore, it is highly likely that the favourite will lose and
that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this
particular case.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Type of Races -Selection Back/Lay
Making use of the above table will not guarantee success. However, there is every chance
that the strike rate of any system you are using will be improved. You could use these graphs
and tables as an added filter to your selection process or as a final check before placing any
bets.
Number of Runners;
As discussed earlier, our greatest asset is our betting bank. It should therefore be used in the
most effective and efficient manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully selectthe races that you are involved with, particularly with regard to the number of runners in the
race.
Although, on average, only 35% of favourites win their races, the fewer runners that there are
in a race, the more likely it is that the favourite will win.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites by number of runners in the race:
The above table relates to races ran in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.
Ok so although we now have this additional data, how can we make the best use of it? Well,
that depends on what we are actually trying to achieve.
Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshouldconcentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswithlessthaneightrunners.Thestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage(35%).Thisprovidesfavourites
withthebestwinningopportunities.
Those field sizes which are shown at the top of the chart are best avoided since the strike
rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average (35%). This providesfavourites with the worst winning opportunities.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshould
concentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswhichareshowingbelowtheaveragesince
thestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage(35%).This
providesnonfavouriteswiththebestwinningopportunities.
Those field sizes which are showingabove 35 % are best avoided since the strike rates of
favourites, running in such races, are above the average. This provides non-favourites with
the worst winning opportunities.
Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrateonthosethatarerunninginfieldsizeswhichareshownlargerthan1011
runnerssincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage
(35%).Thisprovidesfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.
Those field sizes which are shown from 6-7, 2-5 are best avoided since the strike rates of
favourites, running in such races, are above the norm. This provides non-favourites with the
worst losing opportunities.
Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrate
on
those
that
are
running
in
field
sizes
which
are
shown
in
above
the
35%
type
sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage.This
providesnonfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.
Those types of races which are shown above the average (35%) bar are best avoided since the
strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average. This provides non-
favourites with the worst losing opportunities. If all this seems slightly confusing then dont
worry, we have created yet another table below which shows exactly which races you should
avoid.
Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and
select the appropriate row from the table
Now, look along the four remaining columns to the one that best describes the type of bet that
you intend to place (back/lay) and the type of horse that you intend your bet to apply to
(favourite or non-favourite). If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes) then the bet
has a better than average chance of succeeding. If the selected element of the table contains a
(No), then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding and is best avoided.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide For Example;
Lets suppose that our backing selection system has identified the favourite in a race
containing seven runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (6 7) row of
the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, our bet
stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the above table
in this, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between six and
seven runners is 40%.
Example 2;
Lets suppose that our laying system has identified a non-favourite in a race containing 11
runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (10 11) row and look at the
table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore, our bet
stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we look at the chart above, we
will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between 10 and 11 runners is
only 33%. Therefore, it is highly likely that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the
selection is best avoided in this case.
Using historical data like these charts has its place within any system due to the fact that
within horse racing past form, results and stats do constantly overlap and repeat themselves
from year to year. I hope you can find some additional benefit from the charts and tablesprovided. Remember making use of them will not guarantee success, however there is every
chance that the strike rate of any system you may be using will be improved greatly.
Talk Soon
Ross
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Containedwithinthischapterareanumberofareaswhichmayseemalittlebasic,howeverbeyond
anydoubtyoucanbeassuredtheyareimportant.Thenextfewparagraphsmaybesomeofthemost
importantyouwilleverreadconcerninggambling.Theideathatanyonewithlittleornoknowledge
cansuddenlymakealivingfromgamblingisafable.
Likeanyotherprofessionunlessyouhavethetoolsforthejoborthe,knowhow,howelsedoyou
expecttosucceed.Youmightbeabletomuddlethroughratherblindlyforawhile,butitwillonlybe
amatteroftimebeforeyoubecomeunstuck,howmuchdependsonyou.
BeforeIgive
you
some
pointers
on
selecting
alosing
horse,
let
me
ask
you
this
question.
Haveyoueverconsideredhavingagameplanforyourbettingstrategies?Itsfineifyouhavenever
consideredagameplan,aslongasyouhaventplacedanybetsyet.Iftheanswersyesthenreading
onmayaidyouincompilingyourplanofattackandalsohelpyoutoexecuteyourstrategy.If
Youreanswerisnothenletsbegin.
Peopleingeneraldonthaveagoodplan.Assimpleasthisseemsmostwillignoreplanningandlook
aheadtohowtheyintendtospendtheirwinnings.Thisisthefirstmistake.Nothavingaplanislike
buildingahouse
without
the
architects
blueprint.
You
simply
wont
know
where
to
start
and
when
tostop.Withoutanydoubt,havingagoodplanisthebasisofallsuccessfulventures.
Inlayinghorsesagoodplanmeansknowingtheamountofmoneyyouwouldliketomakeovera
periodoftime,whetherthatisdaily,weeklyormonthlyisdependentonyourownrequirements.A
comprehensiveplanshouldincludetheexactstepsneededtoachieveyourgoalwithouttakinghuge
risks.Insimpletermswantingtomakemoneyfromgamblingwithoutaplanislikestartingona
journeywithoutactuallyknowingwhereyouwouldliketogo.
Everythingelsebeenequalgroundconditionisthesinglemostinfluencingfactortoeffectthe
outcomeofarace.Mosthorsesfinditverydifficulttocopewithsoftergroundespeciallywhenthey
havebeencontinuallyracingonfirmgroundforseveralmonths.Staminaplaysanenormouspart
whenthegroundsoftenandwhenthegroundbecomesheavyanythingcanhappen.Course
conditionsclassedassoftarenotamajorproblembutaheavytracknotoriouslycontributesto
upsettingresults.
Animportantfactortokeepinmindisthateventhoughacoursecouldbedescribedassoftearlyin
themorning;itdoesnotmeanthatthesameconditionswillexisttowardstheendoftheraceday.
Afterseveralraceshavebeenrunthecourseconditioncouldeasilychange.
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Nothavingenoughpatience.Nowthistopicwillbecompletelyrelevanttoatleast70%0fpeople
readingthisbook.Thereasonsforthisaresimple;peoplelivebusylivesthesedays.Everythingisso
fastpacedthatsometimesyoujustcantaffordtobepatient.Howeverwithgamblingtheworse
mostsouldestroyingthingyoucoulddoisletyourimpatientnaturegetthebetterofyou.
Peoplewantandexpecttomaketoomuch,tooquickly.Beingtotallyunrealisticwiththe
expectationsontheirreturnstheygambleontoomanyhorsespayinghighliabilitiesandwhenthat
rankoutsiderfinallywins,disaster.
Theyalsospendtheirhardearnedmoneyonlucrativebutweaksystemsbasedonpoorquality
informationorsillybeliefs.Turningaworkingbankof20.00into1,000ormoreinjustoneweekis
unrealisticandextremelydifficulttoachieve.Yesweallwanttogetrichquick,noonewantstowait
forever,butbeingrealisticplaysamassivepartbetweenachievingthatgoalandfailing.
Formisahorsespastperformance.Asimportantasformistopickingwinninghorses,itisnot
importantenough
to
be
solely
relied
on
to
determine
the
outcome
of
arace.
In
saying
that,
the
bettingpublicusuallyreliesonlyonformtohelpselectwinners;theresultisalossofmoney.Very
fewhorsescanbereliedonsolelybasedontheconsistencyofitswinsthroughoutitscareer.
Justlikehumans,horsesalsohavealifecycle.Ifformwereaclearguidetopickinglosing/winning
horseseverybodywouldbedoingit.Itsnotthateasy!Horsesareanimalsunlesssomeofyou
actuallythoughtheyweremachines,theyarepronetomakingmistakes,runningabadrace,peaking
tosoonornotpeakingatall.
Notbeing
consistent
enough.
Even
when
an
unprofitable
punter
finally
finds
ahighly
profitable
system,heorshegenerallystopsusingitafterafewloses.Whattheyfailtorealizeisthatevery
systemhaslosingruns.Thesearesimplyasmallnumberoflossesinarow.Successfulpuntersknow
thattheselosingrunsarenottobetakenseriouslyandtheyarejustpartofmakingmoneyfrom
gambling.Thereallysadfactisthatattheendofmostlosingrunsarelongandhighlyprofitable
winningstreaks.Unfortunatelylosingpuntersusuallyquitjustbeforepayday,nevergettingthe
chanceofexperiencingthejoyofmakingaconsistentprofitfromgambling.Thissimplyleadsthem
backtotheiroldrecklesshabits,someofwhichcouldendtheregamblingcareerindefinitely.
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Justlikeathletes,horsesdonotadaptwelltosuddendistancechanges.Whenahorsetrainsforand
winsa16furlongrace,itwillhaveconsiderabledifficultiesrunningitsnextraceover10furlongsand
winningit.Whythishappenscannotfullybeexplainedherebutitsabilitytoaffecttheoutcomeof
aracecantbestressedenough.Usuallyahorserunningwelloveracertaindistanceatitslastrace
willnottakeareductionindistanceofmorethan1.5furlongstoowell.
Ontheotherhandanincreaseindistanceofupto2.5furlongscouldbetotallyharmless.Ihaveseen
countlessraceswherethefavouritehaslosttheracesolelyduetothesignificantdecreasein
distancefromitslaststart.Someracingpunditsclaimthatagoodhorseshouldbeabletobounce
betweenthedifferentdistances.Whatthesesocalledracingpunditshavenotseenisthefatalities
suchunproventheorieshavebeencausingatthecourse!
Extraweightisaddedtohorsesinafieldtomakethefieldconsistentsothatallhorseshavesimilar
chancesof
winning
the
race.
Although
not
the
best
way
of
making
afield
even
in
strength,
the
practiceiswidelyusedandthereforecannotbeignored.Igenerallydonotconsiderasmallamount
ofaddedweightathreattoahorsesperformance.
However,ifyouselectahorsethatisatthetopoftheweightlisttolosethenyoudohavetolookat
thingsabitdifferently.IfitissignificantlyheavierthanthenextheaviesthorseIwouldseriously
considerlayingsuchaprospect.Ontheotherhandifthehorseyouhaveselectedtoloseislighter
thanmostofitsopponentsthatareofsimilarstrengththenyourpickcouldbeatanadvantage.The
bestscenarioforpickingalosinghorsebyitsweightisselectingahorsethatisatthesameweightor
heavierthanitsrivalsandisofsimilarstrengthplusitiscarryingmoreweightinthisracewhen
comparedtoitslaststart.
Notbeingdisciplinedenough.Gamblingwithagoodplan,havinglotsofpatience,beingconsistent
andnotbeinggreedyareallnotworthapennyunlessyoucanfollowthemstrictly.Agoodsystem
wouldhaveitsownclearlydefinedsetofrules.Thismakesthesystemfullyautomatedenablingthe
selectionoflosing/winninghorseswithoutanyhumandecisionatall.Anastutepunterknowsthe
importanceofhavingrulesandstickstothem.Thelawisquitesimple:Ifsomethingworks,donot
changeit!Yourmainobjectiveshouldbetomakeconsistentprofitsusingtherulesoutlinedinasolid
layingmethod.
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I hope you have enjoyed not only reading these blog posts but also thatyou have managed to take a few notes here and there and also focus onwhat skills suit your type of betting the most while helping to eliminate
any errors you may make from time to time.
The important qualities needed to be successful in gambling may seemquite straight forward, and you know what! They are. Its just a caseof developing your own skills through practise and putting the qualityback into you gambling until these new found techniques become a habit.
Some of you may or may not have all of these qualities Ive mentionedabove within you. If you dont, do not panic! With time and patience, youtoo can master the art of successful gambling. It really is your choice.
The only thing that is standing between you and your ability to makemoney from gambling is your skills, which even after this chapter hasalready been improved:
FL Horse Racing Software