beyond broadband business
DESCRIPTION
Beyond Broadband Business. Sanghoon Lee KT. Telecom Business So Far. 1990s: Golden age After 2000: Downfall of Main Revenue Stream (PSTN & leased line biz) Symptoms Competition Commoditization of bandwidth & connectivity IP technology Moore’s law outpacing demand Stock market collapse. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GLOBECOM 2004
IEEE COMMUNICATIONS SOCIETY
Telecom Business Forum
Thursday, December 2, 2004
Beyond Broadband Business
Sanghoon Lee
KT
Beyond Broadband Business — 2 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Telecom Business So Far
• 1990s: Golden age• After 2000:
- Downfall of Main Revenue Stream
- (PSTN & leased line biz)
• Symptoms- Competition- Commoditization of
bandwidth & connectivity- IP technology- Moore’s law outpacing
demand- Stock market collapse
Beyond Broadband Business — 3 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Broadband & Wireless/Mobile as a Rescue
• Broadband take-up over first 10 years is faster than previous services across the OECD countries.
Cellular Subscribers (1985-1995)
Broadband Subscribers (1997-2003)
Narrow-band Internet Subscribers (1992-2001)
ISDN Subscribers (1989-1999)
• Mobile/wireless market goes over the fixed communication market
Fixed BroadbandCAGR 44%
Fixed, CAGR 1%(POTS/ISDN)
Mobile, CAGR 13%
No
of
Su
bsc
riptio
ns
(mill
ion
)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2.5 / 3G
Beyond Broadband Business — 4 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Two Sides of Broadband InternetBusiness in Korea
Threat Opportunity&& Revenue: Saturating market with flat rate Expenditure: Increasing CAPEX/OPEX
due to doubling traffic High customer expectation level
Has established - high quality infrastructure - Large customer base Opportunities in application & value-added services
(Unit : Thousand)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cumulative TotalAnnual Increment
(Unit : Thousand)
Beyond Broadband Business — 5 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Beyond Broadband Business
> From simple Internet access to “quality life/work services”
> From network service to application services
BrowsersBrowsers Web PagesWeb Pages
HTTPHTTPFTP …FTP …
Any-AccessAny-Access
HTTPHTTP
RTSPRTSPVoIPVoIPWAPWAP
RTPRTP
Wireline
Wireless
Tomorrow
Rich ContentsRich Contents
P2P,GameP2P,Game ServersServers
TodayYesterday
Simple InternetAccess
QualityLife/workservices
Beyond Broadband Business — 6 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Two Basic Questions for Telcos
SubstitutiveTele-presence, Broadcasting,
Networked Home….
Zone of AdversityZone of AdversityImpact of
Packet Services on Traditional Revenues
Alternative
PreemptiveChange inTraditionalTelecom ServicesRevenue
1997 2002 2007 2012
+10%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Telecom Baseline Revenue
+20%
+30%
• Second lines• E1/T1 Sales
Boom
Email, Internet Fax/Phone,Web Transactions….
Zone of OpportunityZone of OpportunitySeizing Digital Economy
SubstitutiveTele-presence, Broadcasting,
Networked Home….
Zone of AdversityZone of AdversityImpact of
Packet Services on Traditional Revenues
Zone of AdversityZone of AdversityImpact of
Packet Services on Traditional Revenues
Alternative
PreemptiveChange inTraditionalTelecom ServicesRevenue
1997 2002 2007 2012
+10%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Telecom Baseline Revenue
+20%
+30%
• Second lines• E1/T1 Sales
Boom
• Second lines• E1/T1 Sales
Boom
Email, Internet Fax/Phone,Web Transactions….
Zone of OpportunityZone of OpportunitySeizing Digital Economy
Zone of OpportunityZone of OpportunitySeizing Digital EconomyA
B
1. Will |A| >> |B|?2. Will Telcos dominate the market?
Beyond Broadband Business — 7 Thursday, December 2, 2004
Beyond Broadband Business: Features
> Different business• From access service to end-to-end service• Both best-effort & quality service• From network service to solution/application services• Applications: from niche market to mass revenue market
> Different focusUbiquity
Personalization
Convergence
QualityHandy
Current broadband“access” business
Bandwidth
Beyondbroadbandbusiness
Beyond Broadband Business — 8 Thursday, December 2, 2004
The Next Generation Network
> The following picture has been in place for more than 10 years
ServicesServicesD
ata
/IP
Netw
ork
sD
ata
/IP
Netw
ork
sD
ata
/IP
Netw
ork
sD
ata
/IP
Netw
ork
s
Mob
ile N
etw
ork
sM
ob
ile N
etw
ork
sM
ob
ile N
etw
ork
sM
ob
ile N
etw
ork
s
PS
TN
/IS
DN
PS
TN
/IS
DN
PS
TN
/IS
DN
PS
TN
/IS
DN
CA
TV
CA
TV
CA
TV
CA
TV
Access Transport & Switching NetworksAccess Transport & Switching Networks
WirelessAccess
WirelessAccess
WirelineAccess
WirelineAccess
Multi-Service IP Backbone
Existing and newlyemerging services
Network control (QoS, Security, IP Mobility)
Too costly, per-service network architecture
Single/simple/cost-effective network infrastructure for existing & new services
Beyond Broadband Business — 9 Thursday, December 2, 2004
NGN: From Vision to Reality
> BcN Initiative in Korea
high-quality broadband multimedia services integrating telecom, broadcasting,and Internet seamlessly at anywhere, anytime, and using any devices