Big data from small farms

Mark van Wijk, Romain Frelat, Randall Ritzema and Sabine Douxchamps

ILRI@40 Livestock and Environment workshopAddis Ababa, 7 November 2014

- Finding structure in variability in farming systems

- Understanding of systems functioning

- Targeting of interventions

Farming systems analysis and HH modeling for:

However…

We did not deliver on the targeting promised:What works where for which farmer?

Typically we got stuck in in-depth site specific studies

Here…

1. Ongoing work on bringing together HH level characterization data

2. Present a simple analysis of farm household level food security that can be used across many datasets

A key decision:

Go simple!!

From food self-sufficiency towards food security

Keep the analysis simple enough to be able to apply it across HH

characterization data collected in different surveys!

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Food available

Consumed

Consumed

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Cash available

Food available

Consumed

Consumed

Sold

Sold

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Cash available

Food available

Buy staple crop

Expenses

Consumed

Consumed

Sold

Sold

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Cash available

Food available

Food need

Buy staple crop

Expenses

Household size and composition

Consumed

Consumed

Sold

Sold

Food crops produced

Cash crops produced

Livestock products produced

Off farm income

Cash available

Food available

Food need

Buy staple crop

Expenses

Household size and composition

Consumed

Consumed

Sold

SoldFood security ratio

Lushoto, Tanzania (CCAFS)

Rapid intervention analyses

First findings:

Agricultural based interventions will not get the poorest 20-60% of the smallholder farmers food secure

Alleviation of problems! Goats are an important entry point

First findings:

The upper 20 – 50% is intensifying, and linking up to markets

In mixed crop-livestock systems this group owns cattle: interventions focusing on cattle productivity address poverty but not so much food security

First findings:

20 – 60% of the farmers: agricultural interventions can make a difference for getting farmers more food secure

In high population density areas with small farm sizes: crop interventions can make this difference

In medium / low population density areas both livestock and crop intervention can make this difference: production/availability of enough fodder resources

Ongoing activities

1. Expand the database (also CA and SEA)

3. Adapt and apply mini-survey, on tablet

2. Test results (both the big FS numbers, but also with farmers in field)

4. Super cheap survey instrument that is directly linked to an analysis framework: produce rapid results!

Ongoing activities

5. Implement gender component

6. With the mini-survey we fill gaps in the database, but also set up some permanent monitoring sites

7. For more in-depth analyses: use existing tools, but also develop an ‘intermediate complexity HH model’

Targeting

Can we identify robust interventions that cut across systems and socio-economic scenarios?

(what works where for which group of farmers)

Can we upscale the strategies to quantify investment needs in interventions?

Generate bottom up based information to improve large scale impact assessment

exercises

Look at changing livelihoods: from that perspective add to the land expansion / intensification – land sharing / sparing

debates

Thanks!!