bill gething - gci.org.uk gething - report overview.pdf · clg emily hay defra will lockhead...
TRANSCRIPT
June 2010
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture
Thanks:
Technology Strategy Board Fionnuala Costello
NERC Simon Jackman
Tessa Edgecombe
Arup Chris Twinn
CIBSE Anastasia Mylona
Kier Chris Doran
AECOM Ant Wilson
University of Southampton Professor Bakr Bahaj
Land Securities Dave Farebrother Stakeholder Panel
Editor Lindsey Coles.
UKCIP Gerry Metcalf
Roger Street
Stephanie Ferguson
CLG Emily Hay
DEFRA Will Lockhead
British Standards Institution Alan Hall
Report Outline
Outline of information available
Context for adaptation
Impacts on the industry.
Global GHG Emissions Scenarios: (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)2
040
160
140
120
80
100
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Med(A1B)
Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
Likely33%
67%
Low
50%
1º C
10%
90%
Very Likely
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
Med
2º C
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
High
3º C
Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
20
40
160
140
120
80
100
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Med(A1B)
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
+5>6 ºC +9>10 ºC+1>2 ºC
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
24-27 ºC 30-33 ºC21-24 ºC
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
18-24 ºC 24-27 ºC15-21 ºC
WinterSummer
2050s Med 50%
Annual
Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
Xtra Lo Xtra Hi
Comfort
Construction
Water
Design agenda:
Regional variation + geographic specifics
Existing stock
Low carbon imperative + infrastructure resilience
Robustness/ maintenance
Delight.
Behavioural adaptation
Timing
Scale
Competition, consensus and regulation.
Tactics:
Context:
Water
Water conservation
Drainage
Flooding
Landscape
Concluding thoughts
Time to start work
Design opportunities
Managing uncertainty and building consensus
Role of regulation
